Rising trends and variability of rice prices: Threats and opportunities for sub-Saharan Africa

Nearly 40% of the rice consumed in Africa is imported. That is about one third of all rice traded in world markets. With such high dependence on imports, Africa is highly exposed to international market shocks with sometimes grave consequences for its food security and political stability as attested by events during the 2008 food crisis. In this paper, it is argued that Africa can turn the rising trends in world markets to a historical opportunity to realize its large potential for rice production. After a review of the policy responses of African countries to the 2008 global rice crisis, the opportunities and challenges for enhancing domestic rice supply are discussed. The competitiveness of rice production in Africa is analyzed for selected countries and rice ecologies. The potential for increasing paddy production is illustrated using a spreadsheet simulation that considers alternative rice sector development scenarios. Reducing the yield gap and expanding cultivated rice areas under lowland and irrigated hold the greatest potential for substantially increasing paddy production in Africa.     

Crop biotechnology and the African farmer

Recent reports, workshops and meetings on GM (Genetically Modified) crops tend to characterize GM food production as a solution to Africa’s food crisis. However, GM crops are currently grown commercially in only one country in Africa – South Africa. Biotechnology tools range from tissue culture to molecular breeding and genetic engineering. This paper focuses on GM crop improvement and analyzes the development of seven GM crops (six food staples and cotton) over the past 15 years in Africa. The case studies reveal a number of unexpected scientific, legal, economic and political barriers to the development of GM crops and long delays in developing and implementing national biosafety regulations and guidelines. We conclude that most GM crops are at least 10–15 years or longer from reaching smallholder farmers in Africa. During this time special attention should be given to strengthening conventional plant breeding programs in NARS (National Agricultural Research Systems), African universities and the CGIAR. Biotechnology approaches must be nested and integrated into plant breeding programs. Special attention should also be given to raising public awareness of biotechnology, mobilizing political support and commitment to strengthening African capacity in biotechnology, biosafety, food safety and IPR (Intellectual Property Rights) and mounting long-term training programs to train the next generation of African plant breeders and GM crop specialists.     

The food crisis and environmental conservation in Africa

In spite of good rains in Africa in 1985, 30-35 million people suffered the effects of famine. Much of Africa is still dependent on food aid. The main causes of insufficient food production are land degradation--desertification--and high population growth. Distribution of the US $2.9 billion in food and non-food aid has been hampered by transport and logistical problems. The major challenge for 1986 is non-food support. Only US $460 million (15.3%) of non-food aid had been received as of March. Country profiles of Angola, Chad, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Somalia, Sudan, Lesotho, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia show a pattern of high food assistance needs and displaced refugee populations. The 1st 6 of the group suffer from civil strife. There is some good news; e.g. Niger, which is embarking on agressive agricultural development, and Tanzania, which has enjoyed bumper crops, but the crisis is clearly far from over. Few African Governments have been willing to face the population problem; population in the area will probably continue to increase at 3% yearly. It is shown that desertification: reducing the biological potential of the land through over-exploitation, animal husbandry, and deforestation, is a wordwide problem particularly acute in Africa. Lost production totals $26 billion annually. Straightforward cost-benefit analysis of projects to halt or reverse the problem does not adequately take factors such as human attachment to the land into account. Unfortunately halting desertification does not receive the attention it should receive from donor agencies. Investment goes towards high-return projects, e.g. power dams; sugar factories, when a more careful study reveals that returns from afforestations are much more long-term. There has been increased consciousness of the long-term benefits of dryland rehabilitation, which will hopefully impact policy in the future. But since desertification is a self-accelerating process, there is a need for very rapid action.     

Feeding the famine? American food aid and the GMO debate in Southern Africa

The inclusion of genetically modified maize in food aid shipments to Southern Africa during the 2002 food crisis rekindled debates over agricultural biotechnology. As the region edged ever closer to famine – putting the lives to some 14 million Africans at risk – corporate pundits, government officials and biotech’s critics debated the health and environmental dangers posed by the new technology.By situating the decision to send genetically modified maize to Southern Africa in the context of US–European debates over agricultural biotechnology, it becomes clear that the promotion of biotechnology has nothing to do with ending hunger in the region. Indeed, American food aid shipments to Southern Africa have little to do with the famine at all. Instead, I argue that US food aid policy following the 2002 crisis was intended to promote the adoption of biotech crops in Southern Africa, expanding the market access and control of transnational corporations and undermining local smallholder production thereby fostering greater food insecurity on the Continent.     

Regional trade,government policy and food security: Recent evidence from Zambia

Given heavy dependence on rainfed maize production, countries in East and Southern Africa must routinely cope with pronounced production and consumption volatility in their primary food staple. Typical policy responses include increased food aid flows, government commercial imports and stock releases, and tight controls on private sector trade. This paper examines recent evidence from Zambia, using a simple economic model to assess the likely impact of maize production shocks on the domestic maize price and on staple food consumption under alternative policy regimes. In addition to an array of public policy instruments, the analysis evaluates the impact of two key private sector responses in moderating food consumption volatility – private cross-border maize trade and consumer substitution of an alternate food staple (cassava) for maize. The analysis suggests that, given a favorable policy environment, private imports and increased cassava consumption together could fill roughly two-thirds of the maize consumption shortfall facing vulnerable households during drought years.     

The new political economy of food and agricultural development

This paper emphasizes the benefits of an agricultural strategy of development in developing countries. It begins by analyzing the close links between food and employment in the development process. In an underdeveloped country, food production is minimal, but demand is as well because of the small population growth. After development begins, income rises and food demand outstrips production. Only at later stages of development can food production meet demand. The middle stage of development describes most developing countries, which have averaged annual growth rates of 3% per capita in 1966-80. The growth in food demand must be met through technological advance in agriculture: high-yield seeds, fertilizers, and irrigation, which, for example, helped India increase cereal yields 29% between 1954-55 and 1964-65. The rate of growth in cropped areas has declined between 1961-1980, making increased yields more necessary. Growth in employment and income leads to higher food demand, which leads to higher prices and labor costs and a tendency towards capital-intensive agriculture. As the rural sector becomes wealthier, there is also more opportunity for non-agricultural rural workers, creating still more demand. In the final development stage, agricultural products can generate foreign exchange. In Asia, the priority is to ensure efficient outcomes of capital allocations, while in Africa, technology must be instituted. Public investment has been shown to be essential to rapid development in Japan, Taiwan, and the Punjab of India. The absence of this investment in Africa, partly because of an overemphasis on urban sector investment, is largely responsible for the backward state of African agriculture. Often rural areas are overtaxed, agricultural experts are lacking, and there is a growing presence of urban bureaucrats. Both experts in the donor community and farmers themselves must become more vocal in demanding investment in the agricultural sector.     

Agricultural productivity and natural resource use in southern Africa

This paper examines the natural resource status of southern Africa and analyzes the critical linkages between the performance of southern African agriculture and natural resource use patterns. The implication of on-going natural resource use trends on poverty, food insecurity, and environmental degradation are also analyzed. The challenges that must be addressed including, how best to intensify agricultural production, the types of technologies to promote and the imperatives of production efficiency and intra-regional trade are examined. The paper concludes with some suggestions on how best to proceed in the future to be able to successfully address the challenges identified.     

The economics of food aid under subsistence farming with an application to Malawi

We investigate how food-aid affects price and production of staple food, with a partial equilibrium model with non-separable production and consumption. The model captures the key characteristics of sub-Saharan Africa subsistence economies. Simulations generate negative but also positive food-aid elasticities of production. Conditions are identified which mitigate the negative impact and support a positive impact. The share of domestic food production in total staple food demand (+) and the share of income from staple food production in total household income (−) are key determinants. Price and production equations, estimated with a panel of district data of the Malawi maize market for the period 1999–2010, show a small positive impact of food-aid. Large negative impacts of food-aid are not likely given production and income shares and behavioural responses.     

Can small farms benefit from big companies’ initiatives to promote mechanization in Africa? A case study from Zambia

After years of neglect, there is a renewed interest in agricultural mechanization in Africa. Since government initiatives to promote mechanization are confronted with major governance challenges, private-sector initiatives may offer a promising alternative. However, given limited scientific studies on such private-sector options such approaches are often viewed skeptically. One concern is that multi-national agribusiness companies take advantage of smallholder farmers. Another concern is that mechanization causes rural unemployment. To shed light on these concerns, this paper analyzes an initiative of the agricultural machinery manufacturer John Deere to promote smallholder mechanization in Zambia through a contractor model. The analysis focuses on the impact of this initiative on farmers who receive tractor services using Propensity Score Matching. The results indicate that farmers can almost double their income by cultivating a much larger share of their land. The analysis suggests that the increased income is used for children’s education and more food, but does not result in increased food diversity. The demand for hired labor increases due to land expansion and due to a shift from family labor, including that of children, to hired labor. Questions that require further investigation are identified, including strategies to incentivize tractor owners to provide services, to also increase land productivity, and to avoid new forms of dependency of agricultural laborers that may result from a shift in the timing of the labor demand.     

Impact of metal silos on households’ maize storage,storage losses and food security: An application of a propensity score matching

Maize is the most important food staple in Eastern and Southern Africa, with a highly seasonal production but relatively constant consumption over the year. Farmers have to store maize to bridge seasons, for food security and to protect against price fluctuations. However, the traditional storage methods do not protect grain well, resulting in large postharvest losses. Hermetically sealed metal silos kill storage pests by oxygen deprivation without pesticides. Popular in Central America, they are now being promoted in Africa, but their impact here has not yet been studied. This study used propensity score matching to evaluate the impact of metal silos on duration of maize storage, loss abatement, cost of storage, and household food security. Metal silo adopters (N = 116) were matched with non-adopting farmers from a representative sample of 1340 households covering the major maize-growing zones in Kenya. The major effect of the metal silos was an almost complete elimination of losses due to insect pests, saving farmers an average of 150–200 kg of grain, worth KSh9750 (US$130). Metal silo adopters also spent about KSh340 less on storage insecticides. Adopters were able to store their maize for 1.8–2.4 months longer, and to sell their surplus after five months at good prices, instead of having to sell right after the harvest. The period of inadequate food provision among adopters was reduced by more than one month. We conclude that metal silos are effective in reducing grain losses due to maize-storage insects, and that they have a large impact on the welfare and food security of farm households. The initial cost of metal silos is high (KSh20,000/1.8 ton) and therefore policies to increase access to credit, to reduce the cost of sheet metal, and to promote collective action can improve their uptake by smallholder farmers.     

劳工标准对企业成本的影响分析

劳工标准问题是一个广受争议,且已逐步成为我国企业进入国际市场所面临的现实问题,劳工标准的实施对我国企业的影响是长远而深刻的,其对企业成本的影响体现在工资投入、劳动安全卫生投入、保障工人其他权益投入和SA8000标准认证的投入这4个方面。总的来看,将会使企业的成本有较大幅度的上升。     

Putting the 2007/2008 global food crisis in longer-term perspective: Trends in staple food affordability in urban Zambia and Kenya

Staple food prices in cities in eastern and southern Africa rose sharply between late 2007 and early 2009, leading to estimates of massive increases in food insecurity and hunger. However, in assessing the impacts of soaring food prices on urban consumers’ access to food it is important to consider food price changes relative to changes in per capita incomes. In this study, we use the case studies of Zambia and Kenya, where data are available on food prices, wage rates, incomes, and other indicators of urban purchasing power to answer two main questions: (i) how did staple food purchasing power at the height of the food price crisis compare to levels over the last 15 years? and (ii) did the food price crisis exacerbate an already declining trend in staple food purchasing power, or did it reverse a trend of stable or improving staple food affordability? Results indicate that staple food purchasing power in urban Zambia and Kenya improved markedly in the 10–12 years prior to the food price crisis. Most measures of bread and maize meal affordability at the start of the crisis in 2007 were at levels 1.0–4.3 times higher than in the mid-1990s. These gains for urban consumers were slashed but not completely reversed during the food crisis. Between 2007 and 2009, maize meal and bread were still more affordable in urban Zambia than all periods between 1994 and 2003. In urban Kenya, staple food purchasing power as of 2008/2009 was comparable to levels in 2000/2001–2004/2005 according to some indicators, while other measures suggest that the food price crisis reduced staple food purchasing power to levels lower than any other year in the period 1994/1995–2007/2008.     

Energy and irrigation in LDCs

Climatic conditions prevailing in most developing countries determine that much of the annual rainfall is seasonal. There are regular dry spells which last anything from a few weeks to several months and sometimes even longer. If developing countries are to achieve greater self-sufficiency in food production, then irrigation must play a vital role. But irrigation is energy intensive and some energy sources are a dwindling asset. On the other hand there is a continually rising demand for food which automatically produces a corresponding increase in energy requirements. The question this poses then is, if continuity of food production is to be assured, on what energy system should irrigation development be based? Alternatively, how can expendable sources of energy be most economically used?     

What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach

Although irrigation in Africa has the potential to boost agricultural productivities by at least 50%, food production on the continent is almost entirely rainfed. The area equipped for irrigation, currently slightly more than 13 million hectares, makes up just 6% of the total cultivated area. More than 70% of Africa’s poor live in rural areas and mostly depend on agriculture for their livelihoods. As a result, agricultural development is key to ending poverty on the continent. Many development organizations have recently proposed to significantly increase investments in irrigation in the region. However, the potential for irrigation investments in Africa is highly dependent upon geographic, hydrologic, agronomic, and economic factors that need to be taken into account when assessing the long-term viability and sustainability of planned projects. This paper analyzes the large, dam-based and small-scale irrigation investment potential in Africa based on agronomic, hydrologic, and economic factors. We find significant profitable irrigation potential for both small-scale and large-scale systems. This type of regional analysis can guide distribution of investment funds across countries and should be a first step prior to in-depth country- and local-level assessment of irrigation potential, which will be important to agricultural and economic development in Africa.     

Food security implications of staple food substitution in Sahelian West Africa

Low-income households in Sahelian West Africa face multiple shocks that risk compressing their already-low food consumption levels. This paper develops a multi-market simulation model to evaluate the impact of common production and world-price shocks on food consumption of vulnerable groups in Sahelian West Africa. Empirical analysis confirms that poor households bear the brunt of ensuing consumption risks, particularly in closed markets, where trade barriers restrict imports, and the poor find themselves in a bidding war with richer consumers for limited food supplies. In the absence of trade, a drought that reduces domestic rainfed cereal production by 20% would compress already low calorie consumption of the rural poor by as much as 15%, four times as much as other household groups. Conversely, a 50% spike in world rice prices hits the urban poor hardest, compressing calorie consumption by up to 8%.Policy responses need to focus on two basic mechanisms that can help to moderate this pressure – consumer substitution among staple foods and trade. Immediately south of the Sahel, coastal West African countries enjoy higher rainfall, dual rainy seasons, more stable staple food production based on root crops (cassava and yams) as well as frequent double cropping of maize.Our simulation results suggest that regional trade in maize, yams and cassava-based prepared foods like gari and attieké could fill over one-third of the consumption shortfall resulting from a major drought in the Sahel. Increasing substitutability across starchy staples, for example through expansion of maize, cassava and sorghum-based convenience foods, would further moderate consumption pressure by expanding the array of food alternatives and hence supply responses available during periods of stress.     

我国聚乙烯工业的现状及发展

由于东南亚国家石油化工工业的发展，东南亚许多国家由净进口国变为净出口国，使中国聚烯烃市场感到了压力。近期东南亚国家的经济危机，加刷了在各大石化纷纷低价抛售石化品，大量的聚烯烃树脂涌入中国市场，使中国聚乙烯市场和生产厂家都受到了强烈的冲击。     

Problems of diet and affluence

In this article the author adduces evidence for suggesting that diet is one of the principal factors in the development of coronary heart disease and goes on to suggest that the diets of whole nations can and should be modified. He then discusses efforts made by some countries to alter dietary patterns so as to bring these in line with the consensus of nutritional expert opinion. The author concludes that attempts to influence eating habits by recourse to education alone will fail, and that public education must be underpinned by appropriate food production and pricing policies.     

Minimising the harm to biodiversity of producing more food globally

Should farming and conservation policies aim broadly to separate land for nature and land for production (land sparing) or integrate production and conservation on the same land (wildlife-friendly farming)? Most studies that try to address this question suffer from flaws in sampling design, inappropriate metrics, and/or failure to measure biodiversity baselines. We discuss how these failings can be addressed, and what existing information tells us about the key debates on this topic. The evidence available suggests that trade-offs between biodiversity and yield are prevalent. While there are some wildlife-friendly farming systems that support high species richness, a large proportion of wild species cannot survive in even the most benign farming systems. To conserve those species, protection of wild lands will remain essential. Sustainable intensification could help to facilitate sparing of such lands, provided that as much attention is given to protecting habitats as to raising yields. We discuss the general circumstances under which yield increases can facilitate land sparing, recognising that policies and social safeguards will need to be context-specific. In some situations, bringing degraded lands into production could help reduce pressure on wild lands, but much more information is needed on the biodiversity implications of using degraded lands. We conclude that restricting human requirements for land globally will be important in limiting the impacts on biodiversity of increasing food production. To achieve this, society will need to integrate explicit conservation objectives into local, regional and international policies affecting the food system.     

Scarcity amidst abundance? Reassessing the potential for cropland expansion in Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa is typically regarded as land abundant, and previous efforts to estimate the true extent of potentially available cropland (PAC) have largely affirmed this perception. Such efforts, however, have largely focused on production potential and have underemphasized economic profitability and other constraints to expansion. This paper re-estimates PAC for Africa in a more explicit economic framework that emphasizes the returns to agricultural production under a variety of assumptions, using recent geospatial data. Existing PAC estimates for Africa are shown to be highly sensitive to assumptions about land productivity and market access, and are moderately influenced by the use of alternative data sources. The region’s underutilized land resources are concentrated in relatively few countries, many of which are fragile states. Between one-half and two-thirds of the region’s surplus land is currently under forest cover; conversion of forests to cropland would entail major environmental costs. Most of the continent’s unexploited land resources are located far from input and output markets, limiting their economic attractiveness. In the long run, improvements in infrastructure and agricultural productivity and the growth of hinterland towns will enhance the economic returns to cropland expansion. In the short to medium term, however, the potential for profitable smallholder-based cropland expansion in most African countries is likely to be much more limited than it is typically perceived to be.     

企业可持续增长模型及其应用研究

通常,企业的经营管理者无论在制订长远战略规划还是在日常的生产经营中,都把增长作为首要问题。然而,一旦企业不顾一切地追求最大化的增长,融资能力往往会达到极限,从而使企业产生财务危机,阻碍其进一步增长。因此,任何企业在制订增长计划时,都必须充分考虑财务资源的约束,保证企业的健康发展。文章通过对四川长虹应用可持续增长率进行分析,试图为企业在管理增长时提供一些建议。