基本养老金市场化投资的理论依据与风险控制

文章从养老金投资与资本市场互动的视角,以全国社会保障基金和资本市场发展数据为样本,通过格兰杰因果检验和协整检验,研究养老金投资与资本市场发展两者之间的互动关系,为我国基本养老金能否进行入市投资寻求证据支撑,实证表明全国社保基金的投资是我国资本市场发展的重要原因,结果支持我国基本养老金进行市场化投资。同时,运用资产组合原理,模拟成熟市场中的风险环境,通过测算得出,我国基本养老金入市投资承受与美国养老金投资相当的风险,其资产组合中股票配置的比例应控制在30%以内。     

China＇s Urban and Rural Old Age Security System： Challenges and Options

I. Introduction In the process of economic transition, China has adopted an urban-priority reform approach in establishing its old age security system, which conforms to international development experiences. China’s rapid aging of people with low-incomes, however, is unprecedented compared with other developed or developing countries. The urban-priority reform ensures a relatively high coverage in urban areas, whereas it imposes a heavy burden ofold age support on rural households. Current …     

A view from behavioral political economy on China's institutional change

A behavioral political economy framework is built on the basis of prospect theory to explain the induced and imposed institutional changes during China's market reform, giving special attention to the integrated effects of economic and political institutions. According to prospect theory, how rulers frame their decisions — in the prospects of gains or losses, influences how much risk they will take. China's market reform has been largely framed in the prospects of economic gains, for which the continuously growing private sector is the driving force. China's central government adopts a growth-oriented incremental reform that coincides with the prediction of prospect theory.     

China＇s Stock Market： Inefficiencies and Institutional Implications

The dramatic movements of China＇s stock market in the past two and a half years have renewed debate among academics over the efficiency of China＇s stock market. The present paper tests the efficiency of China＇ s stock market. The realization of efficient markets requires the effective operation of a complete set of macro and micro mechanisms. However, such mechanisms are not only incomplete in China＇ s stock market, but are also ineffective because of the prevalence of institutional deficiencies.     

上市公司ESG责任表现与机构投资者持股偏好 ——来自中国A股上市公司的经验证据

随着社会责任投资理念的广泛认同,中国证券市场中的机构投资者也更加关注企业的ESG 责任表现,但异质性机构投资者的ESG 责任持股偏好可能是有差异的。基于2010-2018 年A 股上市公司数据,实证研究结果发现：整体来看,机构投资者能够关注到公司ESG 责任表现,在中国A 股市场具有明显的ESG 责任偏好,特别是对国有企业ESG 责任表现的持股偏好更加明显。通过对异质性机构投资者的研究表明,相较于非独立型与短期交易型机构投资者来说,独立型机构投资者与长期稳定型机构投资者持股具有更加显著的ESG 责任偏好。进一步研究还发现,ESG责任表现更好的公司,具有更高的超额回报;利用本次新冠疫情外生风险事件冲击的分析也表明,ESG 责任表现较好的公司抗风险能力更强,累积超额收益远高于ESG 责任表现差的公司。     

China's Nonfinancial Corporate Debt Dynamics

Since the global financial crisis broke out in 2008, China's nonfinancial corporate debt has been rising steadily and rapidly, posing serious threat to China's financial stability. China's rising corporate debt is mainly attributable to three factors: worsening capital efficiency, worsening corporate profitability and high funding costs. Based on a dynamic recursive model developed in the paper, we simulate the trajectories of China's corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio, and find that if China fails to reverse the current trends in capital efficiency, corporate profitability and financing costs, China's nonfinancial corporate debt‐to‐GDP ratio will continue to rise without converging to a limit. Against most economists' intuition, given the current trends of changes in parameters, higher economic growth will not help China to escape the corporate debt trap. On the contrary, it will make China's corporate debt problem even worse. To avert a corporate debt crisis, China needs to speed up the structural reform and change the growth paradigm so as to enhance capital efficiency and firms' profitability, while reducing firms' financing costs.     

CEO experience and corporate financing decisions: Evidence from a natural experiment in China

Using the unique setting in China's economic transition and market reform, we investigate whether CEOs' experience regarding an economic boom affect corporate financing decisions. Economic booming, as a result of China's reform and open policy since 1978, affects individual risk preferences and decision behavior for those who grew up during the reform process. We find that Reform-and-Opening CEOs, who experience the reform and open-up era early in life, implement more aggressive capital structure policies and maintain higher leverage compared to Planned Economy CEOs. Furthermore, we determine that Reform-and-Opening CEOs tend to conduct debt issuance more frequently to cover financing needs as they can better deal with the liquidity risk of debt financing and confront the pressures arising from frequent monitoring by the debt markets. Using the stagewise regression, we find a cumulative effect of early growth experience. We also use the common trend test and placebo tests to deal with the concern that Reform-and-Opening CEOs pursue significantly more aggressive financial policies relevant to the systematic differences. Additional tests rule out the possibility that our results are driven by industry competition, state ownership, and educational ideology.     

China as a Net Creditor： An Indication of Strength or Weaknesses？

China's international investment position is characterized by large net foreign assets, a dominance of low‐return foreign exchange reserves and costly foreign direct investment in foreign assets and foreign liabilities. In addition, China's foreign investment positions are facing potentially large exchange risks. These features reflect entrenched institutional and structural problems in China, including underdeveloped capital markets, biased resource allocation and a defective social security system. China's net creditor status might actually be an indication of weakness rather than strength. To improve its international investment position, China must speed up economic reforms and allow the market to play a fundamental role in resource allocation.     

Effectiveness of China＇s Monetary Policy and Reform of Its Foreign Exchange System

I. Introduction The background of this research is related to continued disputes between China and its trading partners, and to the resulting international pressure on China’s foreign exchange (Forex) system. As the fastest growing economy in the world, China’s foreign trade has expanded at a fantastic pace and its trade surplus with the rest of the world is huge and rising. This remarkable success has encountered increasing criticism, whether correct or not, from the countries that feel t…     

Beyond privatization: Institutional innovation and growth in China's large state-owned enterprises

This article demonstrates that China's large state-owned enterprises (SOEs) are not stagnant fossils waiting to die. Under economic reform policies this sector has undergone large change due to enhanced enterprise autonomy, the impact of market forces, rapid growth of domestic demand for upstream products, strategic integration with the world economy and the state's policy to promote large businesses. China's large SOEs are developing new institutional forms that do not neatly fit into existing patterns. China is experimentally changing its institutions through a combination of central policy, local initiative and interaction with international investment. This presents a challenge to the “transitional orthodoxy” and to ideas concerning property rights in development economics. There is not a universal model of property rights and government action that works best in all circumstances. China's experience with the reform of large SOEs shows the diverse possibilities for effective industrial institutions.     

全国统筹有利于化解基础养老金缺口吗

基于养老保险精算模型对未来中国各省基础养老金缺口进行了测算,并重点考察了全国统筹对化解基础养老金缺口的政策效应.结果显示:(1)各省基础养老金缺口在演变趋势、规模大小和出现时间等方面存在较大差异,但绝大部分省份到测算期末将出现较大年度基金缺口和累计基金缺口.(2)基础养老金从2030年开始将出现全国层面的累计基金缺口,到2050年将形成高达842610.69亿元的累计基金缺口.(3)养老保险中央调剂制度能够在一定程度上均衡各省之间的养老负担,实现养老保险基金在全国范围内调剂使用,但无法从根本上化解基础养老金缺口.(4)养老保险费改由税务部门征收和统一养老保险缴费率将有利于缩小基础养老金缺口,二者的叠加政策效应可将2050年的累计基金缺口降至434134.65亿元.(5)在实现基础养老金全国统筹的前提下,适当降低养老保险缴费率,不仅可以有效减轻企业缴费负担,而且可以确保在2029年之前不出现基础养老金缺口.     

中国创新能力的因子分析及障碍度诊断——基于全球创新指数

通过因子分析的主成分分析法,利用2019年全球创新指数和21个三级指标相关数据,提取出提升国家创新能力的3个关键因子并获得因子权重,在此基础上进行障碍度诊断,得出中国全球创新指数的制约因素.结果表明,制度环境、市场成熟度、人力资本与研究以及基础设施是制约中国创新能力发展的关键指标,应着重从这几个方面提升中国在全球创新指数中的表现,以及实现建设世界科技强国的宏伟目标.     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

China's Pension Reform: A Precondition Approach

Abstract

China has a relatively young population, but is about to undergo a remarkable demographic transformation. Given the un-sustainability of the old system, the Chinese authorities have initiated a number of pension reforms since the early 1990s. In this paper, based on latest precondition framework, we analyse and conclude that the initial economic and financial conditions within the reform started in China are sufficient to facilitate funding based pension reform.     

Thirty years of legal and economic reform in China: growth,institutions, and laws

China's impressive economic growth over three decades has seemingly occurred in the absence of a strong legal system. This paper views China's reform process over the past three decades as one that has entailed a gradual introduction of market forces into areas of the economy, which requires both dismantling the structure of the centrally planned economy and developing market-oriented institutions. This paper argues that China's transition is premised on a set of informal, and increasingly formal, institutions that provided incentives during the process of gradual liberalization. Therefore, institutional developments were not absent. The exploration of the interplay between growth and institutions leads to the conclusion that continued economic growth in China will depend on implementing legal reforms better suited to the nature of the decentralized economy, hastened by the introduction of international economic laws and rules with greater global integration.     

Multiple Forces Driving China＇s Economic Development： A New Analytic Framework

Based on economic growth theory and the World Bank's analytical framework relating to the quality of growth, the present paper constructs a framework that encompasses physical, international, human, natural and knowledge capital to synthetically interpret economic development. After defining the five types of capital and total capital, we analyze the dynamic changes of these types of capital in China and in other countries. The results show that since China's reform and opening up, knowledge, international, human and physical capital have grown rapidly, with speeds of growth higher than that of economic growth. As the five types of capital have all increased at varying paces, the savings level of total capital in China has quadrupled in 25 years and overtook that of the USA in the 1990s. The changes in the five types of capital and total capital reveal that there are progressively multiple driving forces behind China's rapid economic development. Implications for China's long-term economic development are thereby raised.     

养老金投资与资本市场互动发展研究综述——兼论对中国基本养老金市场化投资的启示

目前社会各界对中国基本养老金市场化投资存在较大分歧,但相应的观点主要流于简单逻辑推理,缺乏足够的理论和实证数据的支持.文章通过对国内外学者就发达国家和发展中国家养老金投资与资本市场两者之间关系的相关文献进行回顾,从理论和实证两方面探讨两者呈现的关系及其约束条件,推论得出具有一般适应性的结论.并结合我国基本养老金管理体制和资本市场的现状,提出我国基本养老金市场化投资的政策建议.     

公办高校养老保险改革影响与对策研究——基于双轨制度分析

“双轨制”的养老保险制度存在诸多弊端。通过分析“双轨制”的特点以及发展脉络,指出公办高校的养老保险改革势在必行,但改革对教师个人、公办高校以及国家来说影响深远,如加大教师的自由流动,促进高校人事体制改革,体现社会主义制度的公平;但也存在不利的影响,如可能引起高校教师的不满,降低高校的人才竞争力,转轨成本巨大等。研究提出政府要积极主导,加大资金支持,提高养老保险的统筹层次,逐步建立体现教师职业特点的养老保险体系;高校要积极行动,从舆论引导,相关政策的落实等方面配合改革的开展。     

中国企业创新探索与未来展望：基于本土情景的视角

建党一百年来,中国经济从积贫积弱发展到GD P总量跃居世界第二位,经济发展对中国企业创新的构成带来巨大影响和改变.这期间,中国企业创新始终围绕本土情景一根主线展开创新探索,不断叠加和创新前进,并与经济发展交织互动.把建党一百年分为3个大的阶段,即新中国成立前28年,新中国成立后30年和改革开放42年,围绕不同阶段的企业创新进行具体分析.并重点对改革开放40多年来进行了4期(启动期、成长期、成熟期和转型期)简单回顾、企业创新和本土情景下思考等分析.在此基础上,提出基于本土情景视角中国企业创新有五大特征,分别是创新韧性和适应性、兼顾本土情景和全球视野、叠加创新与棘轮效应、"市场-政府"和谐共生的创新文化和渐进的创新步骤,并进一步对未来创新提出展望,认为在建设现代化中国企业创新体系的过程中,未来需要继续发挥政府和市场双驱动作用,以及基于中国本土情景下的制度优势和市场优势,寻求未来中国企业创新的转型与新的突破.