Further issues in forecasting primary energy consumption

The series of papers by Marchetti [8, 9, 10] and Graham and Senge [4] (published in this journal between 1977 and 1980) represents a useful alternative approach to the problems of energy demand forecasting and primary energy substitution. The learning system approach seems a most appropriate investigative framework, given the aggregated treatment of the energy supply-demand system. It is also interesting for its attempt to establish a link between the structure of the primary energy markets and the 50–60 year cycles of basic innovations.This paper seeks to illustrate further conclusions from the reported research findings, by considering additional energetic criteria. These additional criteria—energy concentration (or quality) and energy accessibility—appear to reinforce the linkage between innovation waves and primary energy substitution patterns, though we modify the interpretation placed on this connection. Furthermore, the additional criteria lead to alternative conclusions about future energy supply, namely that previously discarded energy sources may be revisited and may retain some of their earlier market share.     

Product competitiveness evaluation— quantitative analysis for development strategy

Product competitiveness is the most important concern for industry and is decided by the interaction of engineering activity with the market environment. This paper describes the characteristics of technological product competitiveness in the market, by use of an ordinal scaling method based on rivalry comparison. The analysis was made for actual data extracted from data on consumer electrical products evaluated over a long period of time. Four methods were examined to quantify ordinal data for competitive evaluation elements. The maximum correlation ratio method was proved to be most reasonable for extracting detailed characteristics regarding product competitiveness in the market. It was also confirmed how the highest and lowest rankings in some element influence total competitiveness. The most competitive product in the electrical consumer market gets the highest ranking in performance evaluation, first or second ranking in timing, and above average ranking in cost, with no major setback in reliability.     

Who's talking about the future?: An analysis of the U.S. Presidents

What are people actually saying when they are talking and writing about the future? The paper rests on two premises; that the future is essentially a construct of human thought, and that one method of knowing the future is to carefully examine the language used when “the future” is being talked about. The 13 inaugural addresses of the U.S. presidents since 1933 are systematically examined for evidences of their author's future orientation. The paper provides both factual data about the future consciousness of our presidents over the past 50 years, and also demonstrates the use of linguistic analysis for forecasting the future.     

Characteristics of growth and limitations in electronics

Since its origin about 75 years ago, electronics has grown faster than any other major engineering discipline. Analysis of the essential characteristics of electronics leads to the conclusion that the normal growth-limiting mechanisms are not operative in this area. The commitment of electronics to information handling is stipulated and it is concluded that electronic information processing is a new milestone in a field that is vital for human survival and that is as old as mankind. Though growth in electronics is open-ended, as in other engineering branches, developments within the field are subject to recognizable constraints. These constraints are identified and classified. Most of them turn out to be relative and sliding with the progress of time. The consequences of changing patterns of constraints are illustrated on past developments and their possible impact on future trends is brought forward.     

Utilization of Delphi methods for University planning

A Delphi-type project undertaken from 1970–1972 to explore the long-term aims of Carleton University is described. The desiderata of ten participating groups is compared to actual developments in the decade that followed.     

Incorporating Delphi results in system dynamics models: A case of Indian tea industry

The results of a Delphi study on the future of the Indian tea industry are presented. Most of the information obtained for the study helps in formulating and validating a system dynamics model. The model also considers the occurrence of new events as visualized by the panelists. It is shown, however, that the policies recommended by the panelists yield poor industry behavior when Delphi-predicted new events operate in the environment. This may be due to lack of comprehension of the complexity of interaction between policies proposed and new events visualized by the panelists. On the basis of this investigation, it is proposed that Delphi and system dynamics studies should complement each other in arriving at viable policy decisions.     

Telecommuting: The employee's perspective

Available telecommunication technology enables the substitution of commuting by “telecommuting”, or working at home, for a wide range of white collar occupations. Research on the potential of this phenomenon along with some ongoing experiments point at an array of social and personal benefits that may be realized by this working arrangement. An assessment of the possible implications of work-at-home on the individual employee indicate that the burden on him or her may be greater than the benefits accrued and, therefore, the journey to work may be a more desirable act than traditionally perceived by transportation planners. This paper focuses on two aspects of the work-at-home arrangement. Previous research on the sociology of work as well as preliminary empirical results indicate that 1) social interaction at work and 2) the need to separate home and work roles are important elements for the individual worker. The fact that work-at-home will affect these attributes, is likely to discourage wide-scale transition to this arrangement, despite the availability of the technology. Most research published to date on the subject is qualitative in nature, as only little empirical evidence is available. The objective of this paper is to stress, based on a wide literature review, the need for a thorough behavioral evaluation of the available technology to provide a sound basis for decision making on implementation of the technology.     

Electric vehicles: Market penetration and positive externalities

In this paper, we develop a methodology for approximating the market penetration potential for electric vehicles (EVs). The model is dynamic in nature and explicitly accounts for the competitive effects of conventional vehicles. Unlike many previous models, it does not require an estimation of the time required to achieve a 50% market share. Instead, the model allows one to endogenously determine the rate of market penetration, as well as the ceiling level. We note that some electric vehicle characteristics limit marketability to consumers unaffected by the disadvantages associated with operating EVs. These characteristics are accounted for in the model by the use of a substitution index. The addition of the substitution index allows one to explicitly account for variations in prices, climate, and geographic contour, all of which affect market potential. Electric vehicles are expected to result in positive social benefits by way of reduced pollution emissions and because of the concomitant decrease in the consumption of gasoline that market adoption would bring about. However, the social benefits will not be captured in the market and will not, therefore, encourage the use of these alternatives to conventional vehicles. This means that the rate of adoption of electric vehicles will be slower than is socially optimal, which is a potential argument for government subsidies for electric vehicles. In this paper, we explore a method for analyzing the benefits associated with the adoption of electric vehicles.     

Technological substitution in the United States pulp and paper industry: The sulfate pulping process

This paper presents an econometric analysis of the diffusion of the sulfate pulping process throughout the U.S. pulp and paper industry. A dynamic equilibrium, Gompertz diffusion function is employed to derive a multivariate estimation model which incorporates more information than the traditional approach of estimating the growth rate function alone. The empirical results suggest that the econometric approach provides a useful integration of the technological diffusion process and the comparative static theory of demand. The sulfate pulping process is projected to continue capturing market share at a relatively rapid rate, and could account for 90% or more of total U.S. woodpulp production by the year 2000.     

Change mechanisms in the diffusion of residential energy conservation practices: an empirical study

Four types of variables that affect the diffusion of home energy conservation measures are assessed. These variables are the information possessed by households, household attitudes, the economic and demographic characteristics of households, and the attributes of conservation measures. A causal model of behavior change is presented based on Fishbein's theory of reasoned action. The model is tested using panel data on 225 homeowners from Decatur, Illinois and two conservation practices: employing winter night-time thermostat setbacks and adding attic insulation. The results illustrate the importance of all four change mechanisms. Many nonadopters have erroneous information about the financial and other benefits of the two practices. The elderly and the poor are particularly ill-informed. Negative attitudes are closely related to discomfort (for night-time setback) and expense (for attic insulation). As expected, barriers and incentives differ across population subgroups and innovations.     

Limits and possibilities of large-scale long-range societal models

It is argued that the appropriate criteria for evaluating large-scale long-range societal (or “world”) models differ significantly from the criteria that are appropriate for short-range econometric models or for small “toy” models. World models are designed to elucidate major societal problems arising from the interaction of many loosely connected factors—demographic, economic, technological, and environmental—that can be safely neglected in short-range extrapolative models. World models are also intended to explore the implications of long-range policy alternatives. Consequently, it is important that world models be phenomenological, rather than statistical, and they must “capture” the essence of some inherently nonlinear phenomena. This implies achieving qualitative realism without imposing an unwarranted assumption of causal determinism. Unfortunately, the mathematical characteristics of large nonlinear systems may essentially preclude meaningful long-run forecasts.     

Improved rangeland management with an Earth Resource Survey system

Recent advances in communications and satellite technology now make it possible to provide large, synoptic imagery of the earth's surface at relatively low cost. This paper reports on acase study that was designed to estimate the benefits that might be realized by rangeland managers from an Earth Resources Survey system. Information needs and current practices are first discussed and then related to available remote sensing and data distribution techniques. The analysis showed that cost savings from an applications system would be broadly evident in the areas of resource re-allocation, range productivity, and livestock management. Depending upon the assumptions concerning the discount rate and factors affecting technological diffusion, total benefits were estimated to range from $38.7 million to $115.4 million over 10-year operational period.     

Consequences of increasing scarcity on affluent countries

A theory of continuous structural changes in countries and a theory of discontinuous structural changes are used to predict the consequences of increasing scarcity on countries with some affluence. The prognosis is disheartening. According to the theory of continuous change, increasing scarcity will directly or indirectly increase the inequality, centralization, disintegration, disturbances, repression, and both national and international conflict and will directly or indirectly decrease socioeconomic development, legitimacy, and democracy. These changes will be unpopular and create pressures for discontinuous change to prevent them. Furthermore, increasing scarcity will increase the desire for structural change and weaken the regime's capacity to manage the situation. Thus the pressure for structural change will be strong. Scarcity also interferes with the peaceful restructuring of democracies in their efforts to cope with the crisis. When these theories are used in predicting the future of modern countries under conditions of prolonged scarcity, they suggest that elitist democracies and elitist nondemocracies are likely to be restructured into egalitarian nondemocracies. Egalitarian democracies will survive as such if they are blessed with exceptional leadership. Otherwise they also might be restructured in the direction of egalitarian nondemocracy.     

Public sector use of the Delphi technique

The Delphi Technique is gaining extensive use as a multipurpose tool by government planners and policy makers. This paper begins by briefly discussing the historical development of Delphi and some of its advantages and disadvantages. A considerable number of Delphis conducted in the public sector for the purposes of forecasting, communication, budgeting, and goal setting are then reviewed. Additionally, three prior reviews of Delphi use in the field of education are discussed. In reviewing these studies every attempt was made to detail the research intentions, special features and modifications, cautions, and benefits of each study. These characteristics are provided in tabular form in the summary section as a ready reference for the potential Delphi user. It is recommended that one should take full advantage of what has been learned from earlier research before undertaking a new Delphi.     

On the use of autocorrelation in forecasting: Discussion of Aucamp and Eckardt's article in vol. 21, no. 1 of this journal

This note discusses a recent article concerned with various measures of autocorrelation and their appropriateness as tools for making forecasts. It aims to put the record straight on several points, and also suggests an improved way of looking at sample autocorrelations, when the purpose is to identify a plausible model from time series data.     

Recession 1983: Ten more years to go?

Recession is a Damocles Sword hanging on Western societies, and by reflex on the developing world. The analysis on causes, effects, and possible duration have led to highly controversial results. This article uses an original approach to model the process of long economic cycles, where only physical indicators are taken into account, like number of objects, weights, calories, and time with complete disregard of money, capital, and fiscal measures. From this particular angle economic behavior shows simple, stable, and predictable features, which may greatly help to construct an efficient economic theory. Concerning the recession proper, the model bring fresh support to the Schumpeter view, with time bunching of basic innovations, stable time constants to market saturation, and long waiting for the next bunch to rekindle the boom. Because recession is linked to societal time constants, sweeping solutions appear improbable but a self-consistent patchwork is suggested.     

Strategic management: The state-of-the-art and beyond

A study of 25 major corporations assesses the state-of-the-art in strategic planning, and explores future prospects for developing a more powerful form of strategic management to cope with the transition to a new economic era. Current planning practices show that large corporations have developed complex strategic information systems, a decision-making process that is inherently organic, and planning operations that embody cybernetic principles. However, the prevailing approach to strategic planning is severely limited because it is based upon an old model of corporate management that has become outmoded: a restricted focus on hard technology leaves critical soft issues unresolved, authoritarian hierarchies produce the typical disadvantages of bureaucracy, and a closed-system orientation isolates the firm from its environment. New approaches to business management seem to be evolving now to overcome these constraints: the frontier of economic progress is shifting to a new form of soft growth, organizational structures are being transformed into entrepreneurial networks, and the institutional role of business is expanding to include its external constituencies. These trends represent key features of a new model of strategic management—the “strategically managed corporation”— that is specifically suited for fostering strategic change.