How binding are legal limits? Transitions from temporary to permanent work in Spain

This paper studies the duration pattern of fixed-term contracts and the determinants of their conversion into permanent ones in Spain, where the share of fixed-term employment is the highest in Europe. We estimate a duration model for temporary employment, with competing risks of terminating into permanent employment versus alternative states, and flexible duration dependence. We find that conversion rates are generally below 10%. Our estimated conversion rates roughly increase with tenure, with a pronounced spike at the legal limit, when there is no legal way to retain the worker on a temporary contract. We argue that estimated differences in conversion rates across categories of workers can stem from differences in worker outside options and thus the power to credibly threat to quit temporary jobs.     

The dynamics of repeated temporary jobs

The path to a permanent job often implies a sequence of temporary contracts, sometimes including periods of unemployment. This has usually been disregarded in previous studies on the transition from temporary to permanent employment. To account for these transitions, I apply multiple-spell duration techniques to an Italian dataset. I find that the probability of moving from a temporary to a permanent job increases with the duration of the contract, but decreases with repeated temporary jobs and especially with interruptions. This suggests that it is not temporary employment per se but the intermittence associated with it that is detrimental to employment prospects.     

Temporary layoffs and split population models

This paper develops and estimates a split population model for the duration of temporary layoffs in the German labour market; the population being split according to whether a layoff is temporary or permanent. A flexible piecewise constant hazard is employed and the recall propensity is used to condition the duration of a temporary layoff. The distinction between factors that influence the recall propensity and factors that influence the duration of a temporary layoff is shown to be of empirical significance. The results of the paper are used to evaluate implicit contract and search theories of temporary layoffs. The paper suggests that implicit contracts can explain the behaviour of unemployed workers with high worker–firm attachment whilst search can explain the behaviour of workers with low worker–firm attachment. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entrepreneurial size,complexity and decentralization of decision-making in the use of temporary help workers in Spain

Using data from a postal survey of Spanish firms, the present work, as its main objective, tries to evaluate the effect of entrepreneurial size, degree of decentralization in decision-making and vertical complexity on the use of temporary help workers. As complementary objectives, it also seeks to confirm the effect of entrepreneurial size on elements of the organizational structure, such as decentralization in decision-making, and on vertical complexity. To respond to the hypotheses, a LISRE model has been used. The results show that entrepreneurial size and degree of decentralization positively affect the frequency with which companies use temporary help workers. In contrast, vertical complexity negatively affects the use of this type of worker. On the other hand, it is confirmed that entrepreneurial size positively affects decentralization in decision-making and vertical complexity.     

Contingency relationships of firm size,TQM duration,unionization, and industry context on TQM implementation—A focus on total effects

Past TQM literature has been inconclusive in resolving the validity of the universalistic approach versus the contingency approach of TQM implementation. In this paper we contribute to the resolution of this debate by using a total effects approach within the contingency perspective. We propose a culture-quality system design-outcomes framework for TQM implementation. We then use this framework to study the differences in total effects relationships among TQM constructs across four contingencies, firm size, TQM duration, unionization, and industry type. Data from a sample of 394 plants (SIC codes 20 through 39) are used to test the validity of our contingency model. Our results revealed that firm size, TQM duration, and industry type moderate the influence of total effects of culture (top management commitment, customer focus, and trust) on final outcomes (process quality, product quality, and customer satisfaction). These contingencies also moderate the influence of total effects of quality system design (design management, training, empowerment, quality information usage, supplier quality management, and process quality management) on final outcomes. The strongest contributor to variation in total effects across groups was industry type, followed by size and then TQM duration. To a lesser extent, unionization was a moderator in total effects relationships. These findings uniquely contribute to the emerging contingency theory of TQM implementation.     

Temporary jobs and job search effort in Europe

Using longitudinal data on individuals from the European Community Household Panel (ECHP) for eleven countries during 1995-2001, I investigate temporary job contract duration and job search effort. The countries are Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Greece, Ireland, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain. I construct a search model for workers in temporary jobs which predicts that shorter duration raises search intensity. Calibration of the model to the ECHP data implies that at least 75% of the increase in search intensity over the life of a 2+ year temporary contract occurs in the last six months of the contract. I then estimate regression models for search effort that control for human capital, pay, local unemployment, and individual and time fixed effects. I find that workers on temporary jobs indeed search harder than those on permanent jobs. Moreover, search intensity increases as temporary job duration falls, and roughly 84% of this increase occurs on average in the shortest duration jobs. These results are robust to disaggregation by gender and by country. These empirical results are noteworthy, since it is not necessary to assume myopia or hyperbolic discounting in order to explain them, although the data clearly also do not rule out such explanations.     

Exits from temporary jobs in Europe: A competing risks analysis

We study transitions out of temporary jobs using the waves 1994–1999 of the European Community Household Panel applying a discrete time duration model. Specifically, we use a multinomial logit model distinguishing between exits into permanent employment and non-employment. Two different specifications are presented, one does not account for unobserved heterogeneity while the other does. Unobserved heterogeneity is assumed to follow a discrete distribution. The competing risks model is estimated jointly for all EU Member States. The duration dependence parameters suggest that in general for EU as a whole, very short contracts provide higher chances of labour market exclusion especially for men. We discuss potential implications of our findings.     

Household formation and suburbanization, 1970-1980

The author attempts to establish whether the recent increases in some population subgroups in central cities in the United States is the start of a trend or a temporary phenomenon. Data are from the 1970 and 1980 censuses. The author concludes that the increase is a temporary one that is primarily due to an increase in the size of certain cohorts. The overriding trend is toward suburbanization, and the author concludes that the increase in central city populations will cease as cohorts decline in size.     

The German temporary staffing industry: growth,development, scandal and resistance

In Germany the size of the temporary agency workforce has almost doubled between 2002 and 2012 prompted by deregulation and expansion of temporary staffing agency networks. This article examines the growth of the temporary staffing industry in Germany revealing important milestones in the regulatory framework transformation. The article then explores the role of key actors in the development of temporary staffing industry in the Germany labour market, in particular the shifting positions of trade unions in relation to temporary agency work, as well as intervention from the state with re‐regulation in order to mitigate for exploitative affecting temporary agency workers. The findings highlight that while the growth of the German temporary staffing industry has been substantial, and that the state has been an active agent, it has not been without its controversies and challenges, and that features of the industry remain potential barriers for its future development. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd     

A Multiple‐Group Analysis of Associations Between Emotional Exhaustion and Supervisor‐Rated Individual Performance: Temporary Versus Permanent Call‐Center Workers

This study investigates whether contract type (temporary versus permanent employment) moderates the relationship between emotional exhaustion and supervisor‐rated individual performance. Most temporary workers desire permanent employment, and this may drive them to uphold performance also when strained. This hypothesis was tested with multiple‐group analysis in a sample of 430 call‐center operators from five Portuguese organizations from different sectors. The results show that emotional exhaustion related negatively to supervisor‐rated individual performance among permanent workers, but not among temporary workers. Our conclusion is that the relationship between emotional exhaustion and supervisor‐rated individual performance is conditional upon contract type. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Explosive Asset Price Bubble Detection with Unknown Bubble Length and Initial Condition

Recent research has proposed a method of detecting explosive processes that is based on forward recursions of OLS, right‐tailed, Dickey–Fuller [DF] unit root tests. In this paper, an alternative approach using GLS DF test statistics is considered. We derive limiting distributions for both mean‐invariant and trend‐invariant versions of OLS and GLS‐based Phillips, Wu and Yu (2011, International Economic Review 52, 201–226) [PWY] test statistics under a temporary, locally explosive alternative. These limits are shown to be dependent on both the value of the initial condition and the start and end points of the temporary explosive regime. Local asymptotic power simulations show that a GLS version of the PWY statistic offers superior power when a large proportion of the data is explosive, but that the OLS approach is preferred for explosive periods of short duration as a proportion of the total sample. These power differences are magnified by the presence of an asymptotically non‐negligible initial condition. We propose a union of rejections procedure that capitalizes on the respective power advantages of both OLS and GLS‐based approaches. This procedure achieves power close to the effective envelope provided by the two individual PWY tests across all settings of the initial condition and length of the explosive period considered in this paper. These results are shown to be robust to the point in the sample at which the temporary explosive regime occurs. An application of the union procedure to NASDAQ prices confirms the empirical value of this testing strategy.     

Liquidity traps and expectation dynamics: Fiscal stimulus or fiscal austerity?

We examine global dynamics under infinite-horizon learning in New Keynesian models where the interest-rate rule is subject to the zero lower bound. The intended steady state is locally but not globally stable. Unstable deflationary paths emerge after large pessimistic shocks to expectations. For large expectation shocks that push interest rates to the zero bound, a temporary fiscal stimulus, or in some cases a policy of fiscal austerity, will insulate the economy from deflation traps if the policy is appropriately tailored in magnitude and duration. A fiscal stimulus “switching rule,” which automatically kicks in without discretionary fine-tuning, can be equally effective.     

The deployment of temporary production workers in assembly operations: a case study of the hidden costs of learning and forgetting

The dynamics of workforce skill levels has a considerable impact on plant-level performance that is commonly overlooked by managers of manufacturing operations. In this study, we present a discrete event simulation model inspired by and validated in an actual manufacturing setting that includes short product life cycles, mid-volume production quantities, and a production environment consisting of assembly, inspection and testing.The effect of worker skill dynamics is analyzed using a factorial experimental design that contrasts the use of temporary versus permanent workers on manufacturing cost performance. The manufacturing costs assessed include labor, inspection and testing. The cost of reworking a defect is captured as an increase in the labor consumption. Materials costs are not assessed. At the core of the analysis, it is assumed that temporary workers have relatively less skill and therefore have higher average production times, higher average defect rates associated with their assembly activity, and lower rates of learning. In addition, the variance of the production time is higher for the temporary workers. Despite these indicators of performance problems, temporary workers may be used because of the considerably lower wage rate compared to permanent employees.Our in-depth case analyses shows that assigning skilled permanent workers to upstream build operations was superior to other policies deploying temporary workers, regardless of lot size or product complexity. Attesting to the importance of the labor mix component of manufacturing strategy, workforce deployment policies tended to dominate product switching frequency (a proxy variable for lot size and product mix) in impacting costs.     

双承台超宽悬臂梁0#块支架施工技术

某高速公路高架桥跨越河流部分为单箱三室结构悬臂箱梁,半幅设分离双柱式矩形墩柱,利用既有的承台,采用钢管及悬挑支架的方式,实现了0#块浇筑施工。该方案具有工期较短、承载力好,安全系数高,同时作为悬臂梁的临时固结,为同类桥梁临时支墩设计施工提供参考。     

The impact of Greek labour market regulation on temporary employment – evidence from a survey in Thessaly,Greece

This paper uses an original data-set for 186 workplaces in Thessaly (central Greece), to study consequences of Greece's strict employment protection law (EPL) and national minimum wage for temporary employment. We find higher temporary work contract rates among workplaces that pay low wages close to the minimum. We also find that EPL ‘matters’, in particular, managers who prefer temporary contracts because temporary workers are less protected definitely employ more. Our findings thus support the view that a firm's HRM decisions regarding internal versus external allocation of tasks are influenced by labour regulation.     

Ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars

In this paper we analyze the relationship between ethnic polarization and the duration of civil wars. Several recent papers have argued that the uncertainty about the relative power of the contenders in a war will tend to increase its duration. In these models, uncertainty is directly related to the relative size of the contenders. We argue that the duration of civil wars increases the more polarized a society is. Uncertainty is not necessarily linked to the structure of the population but it could be traced back to the measurement of the size of the different groups in the society. Given a specific level of measurement error or uncertainty, more polarization implies lengthier wars. Our empirical results show that ethnically polarized countries have to endure longer civil wars than ethnically less polarized societies.     

Managing temporary workers: work identity,diversity and operational HR choices

Strategic HRM theory argues that organisations should distinguish different types of employees according to their value and availability. We argue that this has resulted in an underestimation of the importance of specific HRM practices in relation to temporary employees. Building on theoretical work that discusses the employment relationship for temporary employees, the process of identification with the organisation and different ways of managing diversity, we distinguish three approaches to the operational management of temporary employees. We explore two cases that reflect opposite ends of the scale. They illustrate the value of the theoretical framework and substantiate the claim that, even after the strategic choice for a lean, distanced and uninvolved temporary ‘employment mode’ is made, different operational HRM practices lead to differences in performance.     

Fiscal retrenchments and the transmission mechanism of the sovereign risk channel for highly indebted countries

We formalize sovereign and private sector default probabilities into a monetary model in order to test the hypothesis, which recently appeared in the literature, of whether the consideration of a sovereign risk channel affects the sign and size of output fiscal multipliers. The model is estimated for the most vulnerable Eurozone countries-characterized by high debt-to-GDP ratio-and stochastically simulated conditional on expenditure and revenue policy measures. We show that, conditional on specific fiscal shocks, the risk channel can operate in a pro-cyclical direction, amplifying the temporary contractionary effects of fiscal retrenchments. We show that both the relations between economic fundamentals and sovereign debt spreads and that between sovereign and credit spreads are weak. Therefore, the effectiveness of the risk channel for fiscal consolidations is small, irrespective of the direction of change in the sovereign default probability.     

铁路隧道施工大临便道费用分析

通过对某长大隧道大临便道的选线、修建及实际投入与招标设计数量的对比,依据铁路概算编制原则对其进行投资分析,为合理确定大临工程的规模和标准,认真做好大临工程设计,编制合理的工程概算做参考。     

Nonparametric specification tests for conditional duration models

This paper deals with the testing of autoregressive conditional duration (ACD) models by gauging the distance between the parametric density and hazard rate functions implied by the duration process and their non-parametric estimates. We derive the asymptotic justification using the functional delta method for fixed and gamma kernels, and then investigate the finite-sample properties through Monte Carlo simulations. Although our tests display some size distortion, bootstrapping suffices to correct the size without compromising their excellent power. We show the practical usefulness of such testing procedures for the estimation of intraday volatility patterns.