国际原油价格、货币政策对我国农产品价格的影响机理与效应

国际市场的进一步开放,带动了世界经济一体化,我国农产品价格受到国际市场的影响越来越大,在众多影响因素中,国际原油价格以及货币政策对农产品价格的影响较大,采取通径分析法,选取我国农产品中比较有代表性的农产品进行实证研究,研究后发现,二者都会对我国农产品价格产生一定的影响,国际原油价格能够通过直接影响对农产品价格发挥效应,而货币政策主要通过间接影响对农产品价格产生效应,两者都会造成农产品价格的波动。     

Time‐varying market price of risk in the crude oil futures market

In this study, a three‐factor model of crude oil prices is estimated, which incorporates a time‐varying market price of risk. The model is able to accurately capture the term structure of futures prices with evidence suggesting that risk premiums in the crude oil market are time‐varying. Using the cross‐section of futures prices, we estimate a time‐series of the market price of risk in the crude oil market implied by the model. We find that the risk premiums in the crude oil market are driven by the same risk factors as equity and bond markets. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 31:779–807, 2011     

新疆主要肉类产品之间的价格波动关联分析

基于2001年~2017年新疆4种主要肉类产品价格时间序列数据,采用VAR模型和脉冲响应方法,分析了猪肉、牛肉、羊肉和鸡肉之间的价格波动关系以及相互影响程度,结果表明:2001年~2017年新疆各肉类产品价格均呈上涨趋势,其中2017年牛肉、羊肉价格与猪肉和鸡肉价格比较上涨幅度更大;短期内,各肉类产品受自身价格波动影响显著,长期内,牛肉、猪肉价格波动是引致新疆肉类产品市场价格波动的主要因子;从价格波动传导机制上看,猪肉和牛肉二者互为彼此价格波动的影响因素;鸡肉价格相对独立,不受其他肉类产品价格影响;羊肉价格受到猪肉、牛肉价格的影响较显著,但羊肉价格波动对猪肉、牛肉价格的影响有限。通过保证猪、牛产业规模化发展,保护扶持羊产业,鼓励发展鸡产业,建立新疆主要肉类市场价格联动的监测预警机制等措施,可以增加新疆肉类产品有效供给,降低肉类产品价格波动,保障新疆主要肉产品供需平衡。     

New Round of Petroleum Products Price Adjustment

Background
On December 18, 2008, a new petroleum products pricing mechanism was carried out in China. According to the Procedure for the Administration of Oil Price （Trial） issued last month by National Development and Reform Commission, if the moving average price for crude oil in international market changes more than 4% in 22 consecutive working days, the prices for gasoline and diesel in domestic market can be adjusted accordingly. So, the curtain for petroleum product price adjustment in domestic market was opened by the end of April.     

基于相空间重构技术的国际原油价格时序特征

由于国际原油市场的复杂性,结构性预测方法很难实现准确的国际原油价格预测。因此,通过原油价格的时间序列,分析原油市场随时间变化的历史行为和规律,建立时间序列预测模型成为原油价格预测的又一重要研究方向。在建立原油价格时间序列预测模型之前,必须掌握原油价格时间序列的特征,才能选择合适的原油价格时间序列预测方法。     

世界石油市场结构:演进、动因及影响——产油国油气政策调整对广义石油产业链价值分布的影响

本文从回顾世界石油市场结构演进历程入手,对产油国油气政策调整这一重要现象进行了分析。产油国油气政策的调整不仅直接改变了石油公司在资源环节的买方地位和所处的买方结构,同时也间接影响到其在油气生产阶段作为卖方所承担的成本以及原油市场的卖方结构。这样,通过对原油和成品油市场价格的连锁影响,在成品油价格变动特殊规律的约束下,油气资源政策的调整通过对石油市场结构产生影响,改变了石油广义产业链中资源环节和传统产业链环节的价值分布。     

我国农产品出口现状与对策分析

加入WTO以来,我国农产品出口增长明显,但为此也付出了沉重的代价,其原因主要是多边农产品贸易的制度缺陷、国际市场定位不准、营销对策不当等。文章提出,在激烈的国际市场竞争中,面对种种贸易和非贸易壁垒,我们应在保证市场定位正确的基础上,加强国家间的政治、经济、社会和文化交流,全面提高农产品质量和农业生产效率,重视国际市场营销对策的研究和选择,从比较优势出发,推动我国农产品国际贸易的健康持续发展。     

The Effect of Entering the WTO on the Oil Industry and the Economy of Taiwan

The crude oil price of the world increased two‐fold during 1999–2002. The price of domestic oil products for the same period increased with a smaller percentage, i.e., 27 per cent. This phenomenon could be attributed to Taiwan's oil market liberalisation after 2000 and its entering the WTO since November 2001. According to this study, the effect of entering the WTO itself suppressed the oil price from increase by 15.455 per cent in 2002. It also reduced the inflation rate by 0.74 per cent and increased the economic growth by 0.39 per cent. Nevertheless, entering the WTO also increases the competition in the oil industry, which is a big challenge to the domestic oil refinery sector and the state‐owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation in particular. The price decrease of oil products also increases the demand for oil products and exacerbated air pollution and CO₂ emissions. For minimising the negative impact of entering the WTO on the economy, the Taiwan government has devised a series of preparations in the last decade. Those preparations include a step‐by‐step market liberalisation plan, a strategy taken by the state‐owned CPC, a new taxation implementation and the legislative works such as the Petroleum Act. This experience might be worthwhile for the reference of other economies.     

高油价困局

传统矿物能源的不可再生性,决定了过度依靠单一类型的自然能源所面临的系统性风险是无法回避的。＂世界经济血液＂的称号体现出石油在世界经济中的价值与地位,而华尔街的一句名言＂千万不要试图预测油价＂,又令其充满了神秘色彩。     

Consumers’ preferences,attitudes and willingness to pay for bio-textile in wood fibers

The bio-textile products made from certified wood fibers are an important product innovation able to diversify the wood product portfolio of enterprises and to increase environmental sustainability. In this paper, we estimate Italian consumers' willingness to pay for three bio-textile products made from certified wood (socks, T-shirt and shirt). Data were collected face-to-face to a sample of 696 consumers through Contingent Valuation. The results from the Cameron and Huppert model show a significant premium price, ranging from 64% to 128% depending on the products, and that respondents with a higher environmental concern are more willing to pay for bio-textile products. Nevertheless, the price turned out to be a key determinant, evidencing how it can constitute a barrier to a more sustainable consumer behaviour. These results are important for the European wood-based industries’ businesses, currently based on stagnant market of traditional wood products, since they indicate there is room for a profitable diversification in bio-textile products. An increased market of bio-textile products can contribute to reduce the fossil fuel dependency of the European Union economy.     

Principal components analysis for correlated curves and seasonal commodities: The case of the petroleum market

This article presents a family of term structure models that can be applied to value contingent claims in multicommodity and seasonal markets. We apply the framework to the futures contracts on crude and heating oils trading on NYMEX. We show how to deal with the problem of having to value products depending on the “whole” market, such as spread options on contracts on a single commodity maturing at different times (time‐spreads) or spread options on the added value of the products derived from the raw commodity (crack spreads). Also, we show how to build term structure models for a commodity that experiences seasonality, such as heating oil. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1019–1035, 2002     

Vertical Product Differentiation and Advertising

A duopoly model is developed in which firms' strategic variables include brand quality, the number of distinct market segments to enter and price. Informative advertising is used to overcome consumer ignorance about brands. In contrast to many existing models in which firms engage in price competition, the subgame perfect equilibria of the game are not characterised by the production of vertically differentiated products. Further, whilst the firms typically produce identical high quality products, in some circumstances the production of homogeneous low quality brands can be an equilibrium strategy.     

面对成本上升压力企业调价策略探究

在供给大于需求,买方占主动权,竞争又十分激烈的市场上,企业首先提价存在着很大风险。因此,企业要多方考虑、慎重安排。比较好的做法是变压力为动力,挖掘企业自身的潜力以抵消成本上升的压力。同时企业尽可能以边际成本为低线,在经营弹性较高产品时不提价,或适当的降价,以争取更多的销量,从而减少成本提升给企业带来的不利影响。即便是企业不得已提价,也要灵活运用不同的提价方式,从而使企业的经营不受影响,甚至有所改善。     

论鲜活农产品市场流通与价格决定——来自蔬菜市场的观察

文章从鲜活农产品市场流通过程中存在消费者和生产者“福利双损”这一社会现象出发,基于开放市场条件下的基础经济假设,采用数理模型推演、案例分析和自回归模型,对当前我国蔬菜流通中价值链构成问题和蔬菜价格走势的核心决定因素进行了深入分析。研究结果表明,受制于终端零售者的规模及鲜活农产品的市场出清特征,蔬菜终端零售费用占比相对过高的现象不可避免;同时,由于蔬菜价格是均衡经济系统内生决定的,而时间序列模型也说明了蔬菜价格与经济系统的高度一致性。因此,从蔬菜市场宏观调控的政策出发,“使市场机制在资源配置中起决定性作用”,容忍蔬菜价格的周期性波动,实际上是经济最优选择。     

Dominant markets,staggered openings,and price discovery

This study examines information incorporation and price discovery in closely related markets that witness staggered openings. A theoretical model is presented. In this framework, one market, termed dominant, is the venue where most of the price discovery occurs, and the other is termed secondary. The model predicts heightened volatility and order flow in each market when it opens first compared with when it opens second. The effects are predicted to be more pronounced in the dominant market, and is linked to the process of information incorporation. Tests conducted using futures on crude oil (dominant) and gasoline (secondary), two related markets that witness staggered openings, reveal findings consistent with the model's predictions. © 2010 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark     

The relationship between in-store marketing and observed sales for organic versus fair trade products

To stimulate sales of sustainable products, such as organic and fair trade products, retailers need to know whether their in-store instruments effectively enhance market shares. This study uses sales data and a multilevel modeling approach to explain the market shares of sustainable products according to shelf layout factors, price level, price promotions, and consumer demographics. It argues that the effect of these variables differs between organic versus fair trade products, as buying motives might differ, organic buyers tend to be more loyal, and price is a more informative signal of quality for organic products. Results show that the number of facings has a positive relationship with the market share of fair trade brands, but not with the market share of organic brands. The same holds for the price difference with the leading brand, which is important for fair trade brands but not for organic brands. In contrast, an arrangement of the product category by brand is associated with higher market share for organic brands but not for fair trade brands. Additionally, placement at eye level and clustering of items benefits both types of sustainable brands, whereas they appear to be not very sensitive to price promotions. Finally, higher sales of sustainable products are found in areas where the customer base is older and has a higher education level.     

Anchoring effects of advertised reference price and sale price: The moderating role of saving presentation format

This study investigates how consumers utilize an advertised reference price and the posted sale price (SP) as anchors to adjust their internal reference prices (IRP). As expected, the effect of SP on IRP depends on the magnitude and direction of deviation from the IRP. When the posted SP exceeds IRP, it exerts an upward pressure on IRP, whereas when it falls below IRP, it has a negative impact. Consistent with prior research, consumers rely at least partially on the advertised reference price to adjust their IRP. The saving presentation format also moderates the effects of gains and losses on IRP but does not influence offer evaluation directly. Results suggest that retailers can enhance evaluations directly by pricing their products appropriately relative to consumers' IRP and indirectly through the choice of saving presentation format.     

Adaptation of Marketing Mix Elements in International Markets

ABSTRACT

This research identifies the extent to which individual marketing mix elements are adapted for international markets and how company, industry, and market factors influence the level of adaptation. The study is based on a survey of executive-level managers in U.S.-based companies that market products internationally. The survey obtained information on the extent of adaptation across the marketing mix elements and on company, industry, and market factors that influence this process. The results indicate that adaptation is greatest for distribution, followed by price, promotion, and product. Product adaptation is influenced by market factors, price adaptation is influenced by market and industry factors, promotion adaptation is influenced by market factors, and distribution adaptation is influenced by company factors. The results of the research can be used to both understand and manage the extent of adaptation necessary for products in international markets.     

Price impact asymmetry of futures trades: Trade direction and trade size

By analyzing the high-quality intraday transaction dataset of KOSPI200 index futures contracts, one of the most actively traded index futures products in the world, this study examines price impact asymmetry between buyer- and seller-initiated trades and the difference in information content across the size of trades. To measure the permanent price impact incurred by each futures trade, which can be translated into the quality of information content of each trade, we use a modified version of the MRR model (Madhavan et al., 1997), which is appropriate for gauging the price impact and information content as well as analyzing the intraday price discovery issues that arise in purely order-driven markets.Consistent with the empirical results of previous studies on market microstructure issues in Korea's index derivatives market (i.e., KOSPI200 index futures and options market), we find that large trades generally incur greater permanent price impacts than small trades. This indicates that large trades generally have greater information content than the smaller ones. However, in contrast to the majority of empirical studies in this area, which have reported that buy trades are more informative than sell trades in global financial markets, we find that the permanent price impact of seller-initiated trades is clearly and substantially larger than that of buyer-initiated trades in the KOSPI200 futures market. This indicates that sell trades are more informed than buy trades in the index futures market, where informed investors can freely submit sell orders without any restrictions. The greater information content of sell trades is also apparent when trades are classified by their size. These results are quite remarkable considering that the sample period of this study (2003–2006) corresponds to a recovery period, during which the underlying stock index price and the futures price continued to increase.     

绿豆成贵族,谁在“豆你玩”?

楼市观望,股市疲软。在通货膨胀的语境下,游资借自然气候异常之际,纷纷涌入农产品市场虽然目前相关农产品的价格有所回调,但农产品价格的大幅波动仍值得关注。