Share of wallet's role in customer profitability

Understanding the financial contribution customers make to their organisations is an initial step in customer relationship management. Set in the banking industry, this paper examines the strength of ‘share of wallet’ as a proxy variable for measuring customer profitability. Data from a study of 1,100 personal retail banking customers of a New Zealand regional bank were used in combination with the bank's own customer contribution data for each of those respondents. Results indicate that although share of wallet might be used as a proxy for customer contribution at a macro level of customer classification, details of specific financial relationships customers have with their main bank are still necessary. Nevertheless, share of wallet ought to become a standard entry in a bank's customer database.     

The effect of automated service quality on bank financial performance and the mediating role of customer retention

The impact of automated service quality on bank financial performance and the mediating role of customer retention have received little attention, as scholars have focused on issues of usability and measurement. This study begins by showing the impact of technology on the way banks conduct business and proceeds to discuss automated service quality definitions and the potential influence of automated service quality on retention and financial performance. A mediating model that links service quality to bank financial performance through customer retention in the automated service context is proposed. The results of this empirical study confirm the role of customer retention as a mediator in the effect of automated service quality on financial performance. Implications of the findings are discussed and the limitations of the study and the potential for future research are considered.     

The profitability effect: Insight from a dynamic perspective

This study dynamically captures the trend changes in a firm's profitability over a period and explores the impact of the firm's profitability growth and acceleration on the cross-section of stock returns. The empirical evidence reveals a significantly positive dynamic profitability growth and an acceleration premium in the Chinese stock market, which are still robust in the out-of-sample test. The significantly positive predictive information contained in the dynamic profitability (DP) is not subsumed under the profitability level at a certain point in time. Moreover, the first-order DP growth has the strongest pricing power among the profitability strategies. We can obtain a higher excess return while simultaneously combining the dynamic and static profitability factors. In addition, this study provides ample evidence for the source of profitability anomalies, based on the behavioral finance framework. The findings under this framework indicate the substantial contribution of irrational mispricing, rather than rational pricing based on risk compensation or Q-theory, to the premium. This paper comprehensively explores the DP anomalies (fundamental characteristics of a firm), thus providing a novel perspective to better understand the pricing mechanisms of the emerging stock market and cultivate investors' philosophy on rational trading.     

Market ecologies: The effect of information on the interaction and profitability of technical trading strategies

Technical trading strategies make profits by identifying and exploiting patterns in market prices—patterns generated by the interaction of market participants. Using a model market populated by individuals using a range of trading rules we show that the presence of technical traders may be beneficial, in some cases reducing volatility and increasing price efficiency. In particular, contrarian traders who base their decisions on high frequency data have the largest positive effect. It is also found that if technical traders condition their actions using ‘real time’ information, they partially emulate arbitrageurs and make positive profits.     

The effect of mandatory CSR disclosure on firm profitability and social externalities: Evidence from China

We examine how mandatory disclosure of corporate social responsibility (CSR) impacts firm performance and social externalities. Our analysis exploits China's 2008 mandate requiring firms to disclose CSR activities, using a difference-in-differences design. Although the mandate does not require firms to spend on CSR, we find that mandatory CSR reporting firms experience a decrease in profitability subsequent to the mandate. In addition, the cities most impacted by the disclosure mandate experience a decrease in their industrial wastewater and SO₂ emission levels. These findings suggest that mandatory CSR disclosure alters firm behavior and generates positive externalities at the expense of shareholders.     

The effect of measurement timing on the information content of customer satisfaction measures

We use two sets of customer satisfaction measures obtained from a homebuilding company to examine the effect of measurement timing on the association between customer satisfaction measures and future financial performance. The research site employs two separate consulting firms that measure customer satisfaction at different times from the same homebuyer population. A national consulting firm captures customer satisfaction at a fixed time in the year following purchase (the “NF” measure), whereas an industry-focused, boutique consulting firm captures customer satisfaction at three specific points in time (30 days, 5 months, 11 months) after purchase (the “BF” measures). We analyze data for the period 2002–2004 and have the following findings: first, customers’ satisfaction varies over a homebuyer's consumption period. Comparing across the three BF measures, we find that on average a homebuyer is most satisfied 30 days after purchase and least satisfied 11 months after purchase. Second, we compare the NF measure with the BF measures and find significant differences in their predictive abilities for future financial performance. The BF measures are significant leading indicators of future financial performance, as measured by higher revenues and profits and lower warranty costs, but the NF measure is not. Additional analyses indicate that the relatively higher predictive ability of the BF measures is due to the more precise timing of those measures, rather than differences in measurement content. Finally, we find that the point of diminishing returns to improvements in customer satisfaction varies across customer satisfaction measures obtained at different points in the consumption period. We conclude that timing has a significant impact on the information content of customer satisfaction measures, at least for goods and services that are consumed over extended period of time.     

The profitability of carry trades

The uncovered interest parity (UIP) condition suggests that carry trades whereby investors borrow in the low interest rate currency and invest in the high interest rate currency should not result in excess profits over the long run. In this paper, we test the significance of the conventional empirical failure of UIP condition. Using the four bilateral pound parities we fail to detect significant excess carry trade profits for the yen, euro and swiss franc–pound parities. The only parity for which the carry trade consistently makes excess profits is the dollar–pound parity. This result is somewhat surprising as this is the currency pair with the lowest interest rate differential. We are extremely grateful for the anonymous referee’s comments on this paper.     

The other side of value: The gross profitability premium

Profitability, measured by gross profits-to-assets, has roughly the same power as book-to-market predicting the cross section of average returns. Profitable firms generate significantly higher returns than unprofitable firms, despite having significantly higher valuation ratios. Controlling for profitability also dramatically increases the performance of value strategies, especially among the largest, most liquid stocks. These results are difficult to reconcile with popular explanations of the value premium, as profitable firms are less prone to distress, have longer cash flow durations, and have lower levels of operating leverage. Controlling for gross profitability explains most earnings related anomalies and a wide range of seemingly unrelated profitable trading strategies.     

The effects of macroprudential policy on banks' profitability

We estimate the effects of macroprudential policy on bank profitability, using a sample of 7250 global banks over 1990–2018. A number of policy measures have a negative impact on profitability, but these effects vary according to countries' economic development, bank type and time period. Macroprudential policy also adversely affects profitability of small and highly capitalised banks more than larger and less capitalised banks. Comparing our results with existing estimates of the impact of macroprudential policy on credit expansion, some measures are found to reduce lending but not profitability; others affect both negatively; and some affect profitability with no significant effect on lending. Since it is desirable for banks to make profits and thus be able to build up capital from retained earnings, our results suggest that care is needed in choosing measures according to their effects on bank profitability.     

Big is brilliant: Understanding the Chinese size effect through profitability shocks

Taking a dynamic view, this paper assesses the extent to which profitability shocks affect the size premium in the Chinese market. In the short run, there is a significant U-shaped relationship between size and profitability shocks; i.e., both small and large firms experience large and (in most cases) positive profitability shocks, while firms with medium market capitalizations display small profitability shocks. In the long run, profitability shocks in large firms remain large and stable, while profitability shocks in small firms decrease sharply. Adjusting for profitability shocks increases the returns of small firms but decreases the returns of large firms, indicating that large and positive profitability shocks in small firms cannot bring investors sizable returns even though the correlation between profitability shocks and returns is positive. Mismatches between profitability shocks and the per-unit return impact of such shocks (e.g., when firms experience positive shocks but the market reacts to these shocks irrationally) can help explain this phenomenon. Our work reveals that in terms of fundamentals, large firms are very worthy of investment owing to their superb fundamental performance, i.e., large and persistent profitability shocks.     

The information content of aggregate profitability

Recently, there has been significant interest in the information content of aggregate accounting profitability. I collect evidence on whether aggregate profitability captures information about changes in the cost of capital as predicted by classical investment theory. Consistent with these predictions, I find that the stock market return is negatively related to future accounting profitability for several years into the future. I provide evidence that this relation is most likely due to a positive association between changes in expected returns which exert a negative impact on stock returns and future profitability. These findings indicate that aggregate accounting profitability reflects significant economic content related to the cost of capital. This study is the first to link changes in accounting profitability to the market cost of capital under an investment-based mechanism.     

The dynamics of US bank profitability

We examine the determinants of profitability for a large sample of US banks over the period 1984–2010. Specifically, we assess the extent to which short-run profits persist, and whether such persistence is affected by changes in regulation and the recent financial crisis. Our findings suggest that the competitive process reduces positions of abnormal profitability, albeit this is not immediate. There is also evidence that changes in regulation enacted during the 1990s affected both the level and persistence of bank profitability. The financial crisis of 2007–2010 appears to have resulted in an increase in the persistence of bank profitability.     

The profitability and investment premium: Pre-1963 evidence

I investigate the profitability and investment premium in stock returns using hand-collected data from Moody's Manuals for 1940–1963. Controlling for value, the profitability premium emerges as important in this period. In contrast, there is no reliable relation between investment and returns, regardless of whether investment is measured using growth in total assets or book equity and even after extending the data back to 1926. In spanning regressions, factors constructed from profitability and book-to-market ratios (RMW and HML, respectively) improve the mean-variance efficient tangency portfolio but the investment factor (CMA) does not.     

Stakeholder rights and economic performance: The profitability of nonprofits

This paper explores whether ownership matters in a fundamental sense by comparing the performance of stockholder-owned firms with the much less analyzed nonprofit firms. No stakeholder has residual cash flow rights in nonprofit firms, and the control rights are held by customers, employees, and community citizens. Accounting for differences in size and risk and comparing only firms in the same industry, we find that stockholder-owned firms do not outperform nonprofit firms. This result is consistent with the notin that the monitoring function of stockholders may be successfully replaced by other mechanisms. We find evidence that product market competition may play this role as a substitute monitoring mechanism.     

Corporate profitability and effective tax rate: the enforcement effect of large taxpayer units

This paper examines how Large Taxpayer Units (LTUs), a commonly-used tool for enforcing tax compliance, affect large firms’ reported profitability and effective tax rate. Increased scrutiny may either improve reporting and compliance efforts, or lead to adverse reactions from large taxpayers such as profit shifting to reduce tax liabilities. As a source of exogenous enforcement shock, we exploit the actions of Jamaica's LTU around its large-taxpayer eligibility cutoff using a before-during regression discontinuity approach. We find the LTU increases pre-tax profit margin by 2–3 percentage points. Increased effective tax rates are also evidenced, albeit less robustly.     

The mismanagement of customer loyalty

Who wouldn't want loyal customers? Surely they should cost less to serve, they'd be willing to pay more than other customers, and they'd actively market your company by word of mouth, right? Maybe not. Careful study of the relationship between customer loyalty and profits plumbed from 16,000 customers in four companies' databases tells a different story. The authors found no evidence to support any of these claims. What they did find was that the link between customers and profitability was more complicated because customers fall into four groups, not two. Simply put: Not all loyal customers are profitable, and not all profitable customers are loyal. Traditional tools for segmenting customers do a poor job of identifying that latter group, causing companies to chase expensively after initially profitable customers who hold little promise of future profits. The authors suggest an alternative approach, based on well-established "event-history modeling" techniques, that more accurately predicts future buying probabilities. Armed with such a tool, marketers can correctly identify which customers belong in which category and market accordingly. The challenge in managing customers who are profitable but disloyal--the "butterflies"--is to milk them for as much as you can while they're buying from you. A softly-softly approach is more appropriate for the profitable customers who are likely to stay loyal--your "true friends." As for highly loyal but not very profitable customers--the "barnacles"--you need to find out if they have the potential to spend more than they currently do. And, of course, for the "strangers"--those who generate no loyalty and no profits--the answer is simple: Identify early and don't invest anything.     

The profitability of bank–borrower relationships

This paper investigates the profitability of relationship banking within the context of small business loans made by community banks. Theory implies that competition reduces the benefits of bank-borrower relationships, making relationship loans more risky and less profitable. I present evidence for community banks that is consonant with this implication.     

Accounting, regulation and profitability: The case of PFI hospital refinancing

The refinancing of PFI (Private Finance Initiative) projects represents one of the most contentious aspects of Public Private Partnerships (PPPs) in the UK. The negative publicity associated with UK PFI refinancing deals is associated with several factors, including, evidence of massive private sector profit making, the failure of private sector financiers to share refinancing profits and, lastly, private sector frustration of adequate regulatory intervention in this area. Utilising a dynamic model of capital market and state interaction, this paper explains these outcomes as a function of effective private sector lobbying of bureaucratic state agencies to alter the structure of accounting, accountability and regulation with the goal of securing favourable profit and risk outcomes. These dynamics are illustrated with reference to the history of UK PFI refinancing and a case study of one of the projects where these gains reached extreme levels.     

Decomposing the market,industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability

Academics and practitioners frequently highlight that overall market and industry performance is an important aspect of a firm’s profitability. However, few studies allow for the decomposition of a firm’s profitability into market, industry, and idiosyncratic components, and those that do often assume that the market and industry components are cross-sectional constants. In this study, we allow for variation in firm-specific sensitivities to market, industry, and idiosyncratic economic shocks, and then assess whether and when this decomposition results in improved forecasts of profitability. For the overall sample, we find significant improvements in terms of the magnitude of forecast errors and the frequency with which forecasts based on the decomposed values are superior versus forecasts using only total profitability. Across the sample as a whole, decomposing profitability in the forecasting process results in more accurate forecasts greater than two-thirds of the time (increasing to almost 80% within certain subsamples). Our results provide strong support for the role that firm-specific measures of market and industry profitability play in predicting a firm’s future performance, as well as highlighting settings where the decomposition provides the greatest benefit in terms of predicting future changes in profitability.     

The impact of revenue diversification on bank profitability and risk: evidence from MENA banking industry

The aim of this paper is to investigate the effects of revenue diversification on bank performance while shedding light on the impact of the shift towards non-interest income sources. To this end, we use a sample of 275 banks from fourteen MENA countries over 1990–2011. The model estimation using the GMM system reveals that diversification, when taken as a whole, improves bank profitability. We also split the non-interest income and we find that trading-generating business lines contribute the most to boosting profitability and stability. Engaging in non-interest-related activities worsens the benefit-cost trade-off of diversification, induced by the increased insolvency risk.