Forecasting the Downturn of the Great Recession

We examine the quantitative forecasts of Wall Street Journal economists made during the Great Recession. The recession was not predicted in advance, and the severity of the decline was not recognized immediately. An important problem was that the real-time data did not reflect the actual state of the economy and contributed to the forecast errors. At times there was substantial disagreement among the forecasters. A time-series forecast disagreement might provide valuable information about impending recessions.     

人民币汇率与股市的风险溢出效应再检验 ——基于马尔科夫转换GARCH模型和混合时变copula模型的研究

本文以人民币兑美元汇率和沪深300指数为研究对象,使用马尔科夫转换GARCH模型分析了两者的波动非线性特征,利用该模型将汇率波动按照低频和高频状态分成了三个区间,并且从时间上与2015年的汇改相重合.同时,使用混合时变copula对三个子样本上汇率市场和股票市场波动率关联性建模.研究发现:2015年的汇率改革重塑我国汇率市场和股票市场的风险溢出效应;汇改后,两市风险关联性增加,并表现出了正面溢出效应.     

物价波动路径的非线性与非对称性研究

基于汉米尔顿(1989)提出的马尔科夫区制转移模型,利用中国和吉林省居民消费价格指数的时间序列数据,建立具有马尔科夫区制转移自回归模型来刻画吉林省物价波动的动态特征.通过分析发现,吉林省物价波动具有明显的“区制转移”特征,可以分为“低物价”和“高物价”两个阶段,两个阶段之间的转移具有非对称性;1996年以来,吉林省出现了两次“低物价”阶段和三次“高物价”阶段;“低物价”和“高物价”阶段的持续性均较强,吉林省物价波动具有很强的惯性.全国物价波动具有非线性特征对吉林省物价波动具有重要影响,应该在充分分析国家宏观经济态势的基础上,综合利用货币、财政和产业等政策积极调控吉林省物价波动.     

虚拟变量模型在油田钻井类物资需求预测中的应用

介绍了虚拟变量预测模型基本原理,阐述了模型及影响变量选择过程,以一种管材为例,详细分析了虚拟变量模型构建过程,并对其精度和显著性进行了检验,结果表明该模型预测性较好。     

Wealth Inequality and the Great Recession

The study of wealth and wealth inequality has received far less attention than income, but the increasing importance of wealth, debt and wealth inequality means closer attention must be paid to their concomitant dynamics. Policy interventions to reduce economic inequality continue to target income more than wealth, but targeting the latter – especially through taxes on financial assets – is arguably more effective.     

我国医疗保健行业股指收益率波动特征与杠杆效应

本文运用SWARCH模型分析了我国医疗保健板块收益率的波动,并将医疗保健板块收益率与上证综指、深证成指收益率的SWARCH模型的估计结果进行比较,得出以下结论:医疗保健指数收益率序列呈现出低、中、高三种波动状态,样本区间主要分布于中波动状态,低波动状态的平均持续期最长、中波动状态的平均持续期居中、高波动状态的平均持续期最短,医疗保健指数收益率波动杠杆效应显著;我国股市医疗保健板块收益率波动状态之间的差异高于沪深综指波动状态的差异,医疗保健指数收益率与沪深综指收益率区制转移趋同,但存在着细微差异;医疗保健指数收益率各区制间转移相对频繁,每种波动状态的平均持续期较短,股市医疗保健板块收益率对新信息的反应更为敏感。     

产能过剩与增长型衰退的货币责任——以房地产和光伏产业为例

货币投入对经济社会所具有的促进作用,是有利的货币供给冲击;而货币在短期内受高收益率的引诱而持续流入某个产业,导致该产业由产能过剩逐渐转向增长型衰退,就是不利的货币供给冲击。前者是货币的正面责任,后者则归于货币的负面责任。货币作为社会生产关系的产物,货币内在的社会性就要承担社会责任：中央银行应当在产业结构调整、治理产能过剩等方面制定和实施货币政策,对货币供给＂引导与控制＂;商业银行的贷款决策要警惕某些产业短期的高收益率,以规避引诱货币流入出现的＂信用繁荣＂;社会公众理性的投资行为,不仅能够获得合理稳定的投资收益,也是维护金融市场和货币体系秩序的内在要求。     

Perceptual Variables and Nascent Entrepreneurship

Using a large sample of individuals in 28 countries, we investigate what variables are significantly correlated with an individuals decision to become an entrepreneur. Following existing literature in economics, we link such a decision to demographic and economic characteristics. In addition, we argue that perceptual variables such as alertness to opportunities, fear of failure, and confidence about ones own skills are also important. Our results suggest that perceptual variables are significantly correlated with new business creation across all countries in our sample and across gender. Although our data do not allow the identification of causal relationships, our findings suggest that, when making decisions, nascent entrepreneurs rely significantly on subjective and often biased perceptions rather than on objective expectations of success. Thus, perceptual variables should be included in economic models of entrepreneurial behavior.JEL CODE: M13, J24, D01     

The Impact of Brand Delisting on Store Switching and Brand Switching Intentions

A tool retailers often use to improve their negotiating position with brand manufacturers is to delist - or threaten to delist - the manufacturers’ brand. Because brand manufacturers rely mainly on retailers to sell their products to consumers, a brand delisting will cause a sales loss for the brand manufacturer. Therefore, many brand manufacturers feel enormous pressure to give in and improve buying conditions to favor the retailer. The question thus emerges: Can a brand manufacturer resist a retailer's threat to delist its brand(s)? If a brand delisting severely hurts retail sales, it is easier for a brand manufacturer to resist. The authors study the impact of brand delistings on store switching and brand switching using a controlled online experiment and in-store shopper survey. They develop and test a conceptual model with several antecedents of consumers’ reactions to a brand delisting and conclude that brand equity, market share, and the products’ hedonic level drive store and brand switching.     

审计师变更与内部控制审计意见购买

管理层有可能与审计师合谋以获得虚假的内部控制审计意见.本文基于我国A股上市公司发布的2013~2015年年度内部控制审计报告,采用修正的Lennox(2000)审计意见购买模型以实证检验我国上市公司是否存在内部控制审计意见购买行为.研究结论表明:上市公司内部控制被出具非标准审计意见后,促使其管理层更换审计师,且上市公司更换审计师后降低了其获得非标准内部控制审计意见的概率,即我国上市公司存在内部控制审计意见购买行为,故我国政府监管部门应加强内部控制审计的规范以监督管理层与内部控制审计师的合谋,从而真正发挥内部控制审计职能.     

Exact Ruin Probabilities and the Evaluation of Program Trading On Financial Markets

For a compound Poisson process with negative drift and jump distribution consisting of a mixture of exponentials on [0) and on (-, 0), an exact expression is derived for the probability of hitting the level c, c > 0. the problem is motivated by modeling the returns from trading on financial markets.     

中日债券市场监管制度比较研究

日本基本是中央集权的国家,中国是民主集中制国家,中日债券市场管理方面有很多相似之处。另外,日本战后以美为师,效法美国建立其国内债券市场,而中国在改革开放后也借鉴美国债券的成功经验。经过几十年的发展,中日两国债券市场形成了各自的特点,通过对比中日债券市场监管体制的相关规定,对于完善我国债券市场监管体制有一定的借鉴意义。     

Children's Age,Intelligence and Sex as Variables Mediating Reactions to TV Commercials: Repetition and Content Complexity Implications for Advertisers

To learn if differences in age, intelligence, and sex account for differences in children's recall of TV commercials and in the degree of insistence with which they request that the advertised product be purchased, 54 gifted, 71 normal and 53 educable mentally retarded children of both sexes (7–13 years) were questioned after viewing commercials for breakfast cereals. Analyses of variance reveal that both age and intelligence were significantly related to recall while only intelligence was significantly related to degree of insistence. Sex differences were not significant for either recall or degree of insistence nor were any of the possible 2 way and 3 way interaction terms. The nature of the joint covariance between the outcomes (recall and degree of insistence) and the children's characteristics (age, sex, and intelligence) was explored via canonical analysis, and implications for advertisers in terms of repetition and message complexity are discussed.     

基于协整关系的中国铜期货合约套期保值策略

本文在检验上海期货交易所铜期货价格和铜现货价格这两组时间序列数据的平稳性和协整关系的基础上,利用Ghosh误差修正模型(ECM)和简化的误差修正模型(S-ECM)估计我国铜期货合约的最小风险套期保值比率及其有效性.为了进行比较,本文同时运用传统回归模型和双变量向量自回归模型(B-VAR)对上述数据进行统计检验,发现忽略协整关系的最小风险套期保值比率偏小,套期保值有效性也有所降低.从而得到考虑协整关系有助于提高我国铜期货合约套期保值效果的基本结论.     

A Markov Analysis of Customer Retention and Recruitment

Abstract

This paper develops a Markov analysis of customer retention and recruitment for the service industry. It establishes the trade-off between retaining present customers and recruiting new customers and demonstrates that retention is essential in achieving high market share. Retention and recruitment cost functions are developed which allow managers to evaluate the effectiveness of service improvement programs and marketing campaigns and to predict returns for each type of investment. The model then determines the retention and recruitment investment levels that will maximize market share. The model is applied to data from a service organization to examine retention and recruitment in an actual service organization.     

Forecasting U.S. Recessions with Probit Stepwise Regression Models

Yield spreads have been repeatedly used in the literature as the top candidates in predicting future recessions. In this paper, we show that existing model specifications are good but fall short of the performance of more complete models. Applying a probit stepwise regression procedure to a large number of economic indicators, we find models that dramatically outperform those used in the literature. Due to a time series that only began in 1964Q1 and very few historical recessions, any model specification may capture only a few of the economy’s many aspects and thus can potentially be biased. Nevertheless, models with better statistical properties should have a better chance to capture the occurrence of recession. Our chosen models are not immune to statistical limitations but should forecast better than the existing models in the literature.     

Through Thick and Thin: How Fair Trade Consumers Have Reacted to the Global Economic Recession

Research on fair trade has flourished over the past decade as fair trade food products have gained popularity amongst consumers in many developed economies. This study examines the effects of recessionary economic conditions on fair trade consumers’ purchasing behaviour. An online survey was administered to 306 fair trade consumers from Canada, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The results reveal a discrepancy among fair trade consumers as only consumers that purchase fair trade on an occasional basis adhered to established consumer behaviour norms, i.e. decreasing their purchases of fair trade products and becoming significantly more price aware. Respondents who actively consume fair trade generally remained loyal to their purchase. While some active consumers altered their purchasing behaviour, this phenomenon was not common amongst this group as no statistically significant changes were observed. Differences were also noted among the three countries as the Canadian and US fair trade consumers significantly decreased their consumption of fair trade as a result of the recession, whereas the UK consumers did not. In addition to the research results, theoretical and managerial implications will be discussed along with future research directions.