个人住房抵押贷款信用风险实证研究综述

一、个人住房抵押贷款信用风险概述(一)信用风险定义个人住房抵押贷款,又称住房按揭贷款,英文Mortgage。是指金融机构向个人借款人发放的用于购买住房的贷款,借款人以所购住房作为抵押担保。个人住房抵押贷款面临多种风险,根据国内外学者的研究归结起来,主要包括信用     

国有股份制商业银行个人住房贷款风险分析

随着国民经济的不断发展，住房分配货币化制度的实施，我国商业银行加大了对个人住房信贷的投入力度，个人住房贷款余额不断增长，由1998年的426．18亿元迅速增长到2008年的29500亿元，增长了69倍多。虽然个人住房贷款一直被商业银行认为是安全性较高的优质资产，但同时也存在借款人风险、操作风险、抵押物风险、提前偿还风险以及利率风险。逆向选择与道德风险、房地产周期波动影响、房地产业融资渠道狭窄是导致我国股份制商业银行住房贷款风险存在的主要原因。     

商业银行个人住房按揭贷款的风险与防范

个人住房按揭贷款风险的产生,除客观存在的外部环境外,主要是银行未能完全顺应市场发展的结果。市场经济秩序不规范,机制不健全,许多人扭曲的经济行为和银行某些环节管理不完善等因素合力诱发了不良资产的产生。简单粗放的经营模式,使贷款风险监测不到位,缺乏对借款人的素质和能力的综合考评,对贷款的各个环节没有实行动态评估预警,很难及时有效监测到贷款存在的风险。商业银行防范个人住房按揭贷款风险的关键,在于充分利用大数据等手段,评估考核开发商和借款人的能力;在于以人为本,制定并执行适应市场的业务流程,做到便利、高效、安全。     

我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款风险分析与防范

从介绍我国个人住房抵押贷款发展现状入手，分析商业银行个人住房抵押贷款存在的主管风险和客观风险，并提出几点相应的风险防范措施，以期对降低我国个人住房贷款风险和完善个人住房贷款业务有一定的促进意义。     

浅议个人住房贷款风险的防范

随着个人住房贷款业务的快速发展,业务规模的不断扩大,个人住房贷款业务的风险也不断的出现,如何认识并防范个人住房贷款业务的风险对各大商业银行来说显得越来越重要。本文主要对我国商业银行个人住房贷款风险的现状进行阐述,并提出了相应的解决对策。     

个人住房贷款的风险与防范

近年来,商业银行把个人住房贷款看作是优质贷款品种,因此一直大力发展该项业务。但是,根据国际经验,个人住房贷款的风险暴露期通常为3-8年,中国个人住房贷款可能刚开始进入到风险暴露期。因此正确认识并努力防范当前个人住房贷款业务存在的风险尤为重要。本文深入分析了个人住房贷款的风险,如假按揭风险、信用风险、流动性风险等五种风险,并提出了防范风险的对策。     

谈我国个人住房抵押贷款的风险与对策

近年来,个人住房抵押贷款已成为居民购房贷款的主要贷款方式。但由于我国房地产市场经济发展还不成熟,个人住房抵押贷款业务尚不完善,仍存在信用风险、抵押物风险、利率风险和国家政策风险等诸多风险。贷款银行在办理个人住房抵押贷款时需加快推进个人信用制度的建设,建立和完善个人住房抵押贷款担保、保险机制,加强利率风险监管,以有效防范个人住房抵押贷款风险,促进我国房地产市场的持续健康发展。     

个人住房贷款风险成因分析及对策研究——以C银行H分行营业部为例

居民的住房需求快速增长,带动了个人住房贷款业务的迅猛发展。这使得个人住房贷款占营业部贷款业务的比重也随之快速上升,从而导致个人贷款不良资产的比重增大。本文以C银行H分行为例,通过对营业部个人住房贷款的快速增长的数据对比,发现营业部存在的风险,并针对存在的风险进行营业部内部和外部风险分析,在此基础上,还从增强风险防范意识、严格把好审核关、提高管理水平和风险控制能力、建立个人信用评级制度引入保险机制等方面对个人住房贷款的风险防范提出了相关对策。     

我国个人住房抵押贷款利率风险分析

本文基于我国个人住房消费信贷市场发展历程及现状,对个人住房抵押贷款的利率风险进行分析。我国个人住房抵押贷款利率风险主要源于贷款机构集中在商业银行、贷款利率由央行制定、信息不对称程度高和个人住房抵押贷款二级市场极不发达等因素;风险表现在住房贷款利率优惠政策压缩利润空间、基差风险和重定价风险突出等方面。最后,基于以上分析提出了相应的政策建议。     

我国个人住房抵押贷款的风险及防范措施

近年来,我国商业银行个人住房抵押贷款业务得到了快速发展,与此同时,个人住房抵押贷款的风险控制与管理问题也成为影响商业银行个人业务能否健康发展,甚至是影响商业银行未来经营效益和竞争能力的重要因素。当前个人住房抵押贷款的主要风险有违约风险、流动性风险、抵押物风险、政策性风险等,为此,应从房屋交易、估价、保险等方面,加快推进住房抵押贷款法律法规的制定,发展住房抵押贷款证券化,推进个人信用制度的建设,建立健全政府住房抵押贷款担保、抵押物处置和住房贷款保险制度,以形成对市场主体和市场行为的硬约束。     

Consumer Credit Risk and Pricing

Previous academic studies viewed borrower rejection as a sign of market imperfections in the consumer credit markets, but this view was based upon the assumption that differences in the levels of borrower creditworthiness could not be accurately identified. Today, it is possible to differentiate between types of borrowers, and riskier borrowers can participate in credit markets if they are willing to pay relatively higher borrowing costs. Hence, a more critical issue concerning the performance of these markets should be whether loan prices correctly reflect the level of borrower credit risk. This paper reexamines consumer participation in credit markets looking specifically at issues related to the pricing of borrowers of different credit risk.     

Credit risk in Islamic microfinance institutions: The role of women,groups, and rural borrowers

Using international data, we find that Islamic MFIs experience reduced credit risk by offering more groups loans, serving more women, and serving more borrowers in rural locations. Conventional MFIs benefit from fewer group loans, less loans to rural borrowers, and a greater focus on female borrowers. Our results contribute to microfinance and financial inclusion literature by highlighting the potential of tapping into the social dynamics within Muslim communities. We present encouraging insights for Islamic MFIs donors and managers on the possibility of promoting the financial inclusion of women and rural borrowers without compromising the quality of the credit portfolio.     

Incentives for Loan Repayments: Evidence from a Randomized Field Study

This field experiment tests an innovative approach for helping automobile loan borrowers make their loan payments on time. Borrowers were randomly assigned to a loan with an interest rate reduction after three on‐time payments; borrowers assigned to this loan show fewer late payments compared to a control group. While the financial incentive of the interest rate reduction was small, the offer of a rate reduction appears to result in borrowers attending to due dates. This result illustrates that lenders can use simple mechanisms to encourage more positive repayment patterns among borrowers with a history of late payments.     

PRODUCTION AND CONSUMPTION CREDIT IN A CONTINUOUS‐TIME MODEL OF THE CIRCUIT OF CAPITAL

This paper offers a characterization of the content of production and consumption credit based on the Marxian circuit of capital and a distinctive approach to credit relations. All credit allocations make the same contribution to demand, sales and profit flows, and, consequently to the pace of accumulation. Production credit uniquely contributes to investment by borrowers. Consumption credit thus effects a form of leveraging of social capital, boosting profitability while strengthening productive constraints and financial risks bearing on credit relations. Systems with higher allocations of consumption credit experience lower scopes for growth‐enhancing credit extension, and face higher aggregate levels of credit risk than comparable economies.     

Banking relationship and default priority in consumer credit: Evidence from Thai microdata

Banks play an important role in consumer credit, and when borrowers face a decision on whether to default on mortgage or non-mortgage loans first, banking relationship may matter. Our study provides first evidence into the interplay between banking relationship and consumer default priority via credit bureau data of 1 million individuals in Thailand. We find that same-bank borrowers are less likely to default on mortgage loans first, and borrowers with longer banking relationship and lower switching cost are more likely to default on mortgage loans first (which is welfare-improving). Our results suggest that banking relationship can lead to better outcomes for defaulting borrowers even when switching cost is high.     

The role of training in reducing poverty: the case of agricultural workers receiving microcredit in Bangladesh

The policy of providing microcredit and skill training to poor agricultural workers in developing countries is well‐established. In this study, an attempt has been made to assess the effectiveness of the training part of that policy. BRAC (formerly the Bangladesh Rural Advancement Committee), the largest non‐governmental organization in Bangladesh, is making efforts to alleviate poverty by providing microcredit and relevant training to landless and marginal borrowers, who have less than 1.5 acres of land, in order to enhance their standard of living. The study aims to assess the effects of BRAC's training programs on the recipients' total household expenditure. Primary data were collected from female borrowers who participated in the microcredit programs of BRAC and these data reflect the key role women play in agricultural work and the lack of research on their status. The study shows that the training provided to the borrowers failed to create any significant impact on their household expenditure because only a small percentage of borrowers received training and the duration of the training was limited (on average three days per person). Moreover, many of those who received training experienced only a modest income effect. The findings are important not just for the practical purpose of influencing policies for reducing poverty in Bangladesh but also for their contribution to the understanding of the effectiveness of training. The existing literature is concerned mainly with the effectiveness of training in the context of business and other organizations in developed countries. Research on the effectiveness of training in developing countries, particularly in alleviating poverty, is less evident. Moreover, the present research is also exceptional as it focuses only on female trainees.     

Credit access for high-risk borrowers in financially concentrated markets: Do SBA loan guarantees help?

The Small Business Administration's (SBA) loan guarantee program was established to correct financial capital market inefficiencies and improve small business access to financial capital. However, the SBA loan guarantee program has been criticized for its failure to improve the performance of financial capital markets available to small businesses. This study considers the financial capital market failure created by lenders' monopoly power (specifically, financial market concentration) in financial capital markets. Based on this potential market failure, a model is derived to evaluate the behavior of lenders and borrowers in financial capital markets. Using the national Survey of Small Business Finance, this study compares the financial characteristics of small business borrowers with and without SBA loan guarantees, and provides a qualitative assessment of the SBA's ability to correct financial capital market inefficiencies. When considering only the interaction between borrower quality and the degree of financial market concentration, high-risk borrowers in high concentration financial markets have a higher probability of receiving an SBA loan guarantee than low-risk borrowers in low concentration financial markets. However, when other factors influencing the demand for financial capital are included in the model, only the borrower attributes (credit risk and age) are significant. While the SBA loan guarantee program appears to partially mitigate the effects of the market failure caused by financial market concentration for high-risk borrowers, the program appears to be better designed to address borrower risk, rather than credit market failure.     

Institutionalizing Ethics in Institutional Voids: Building Positive Ethical Strength to Serve Women Microfinance Borrowers in Negative Contexts

This study examines whether microfinance institutions (MFIs) that serve women borrowers at the base of the economic pyramid are likely to adopt a written code of positive organizational ethics (POE). Using econometric analysis of operational and economic data of a sample of MFIs from across the world, we find that two contextual factors—poverty level and lack of women’s empowerment—moderate the influence of an MFI’s percentage of women borrowers on the probability of the MFI having a POE code. MFIs that serve more women borrowers are more likely to adopt a POE code, especially in negative contexts (where women borrowers face poverty and disempowerment and are therefore susceptible to abuse). This study provides evidence that MFIs can build positive ethical strength in negative contexts.     

Microfinance Performance and Social Capital: A Cross-Country Analysis

In recent years, the microfinance industry has received a substantial amount of cross-border funding from both public and private sources. This funding reflects the increasing interest in microfinance as part of a more general trend towards socially responsible investments. In order to be able to secure sustained interest from these investors, it is important that the microfinance industry can show evidence of its contribution to reducing poverty at the bottom of the pyramid. For this, it is crucial to understand under what conditions microfinance institutions (MFIs) are able to reduce poverty. This paper contributes to this discussion by investigating the relationship between the extent to which social capital formation is facilitated within different societies and the financial and social performance of MFIs. This focus on social capital formation is important, because in many cases MFIs use group loans with joint liability to incentivize asset-poor borrowers to substitute the lack of physical collateral by their social capital. Hence, the success of a large part of the loan relationship between MFIs and their borrowers depends on the social capital those borrowers can bring into the contract. We carry out a cross-country analysis on a dataset containing 100 countries and identify different social dimensions as proxies for how easy social capital can be developed in different countries. We hypothesize that microfinance is more successful, both in terms of their financial and social aims, in societies that are more conducive to the development of social capital. Our empirical results support our hypothesis.     

Impact of mortgage soft information in loan pricing on default prediction using machine learning

We analyze the impact of soft information on US mortgages for default prediction and provide a new measure for lender soft information that is based on the interest rates offered to borrowers and incremental to public hard information. Hard and soft information provide for a variation in annual default probabilities of approximately 3%. Soft information has a lesser impact over time and time since origination. Lenders rely more on soft information for high-risk borrowers. Our study evidences the importance of soft information collected at loan origination.