Redistribution and employment policies with endogenous unemployment

We study optimal redistribution policy in an economy with three types of unemployed persons: those unable to work, the voluntarily unemployed, and the involuntarily unemployed. Both voluntary and involuntary unemployment are endogenous. Voluntary unemployment arises because individuals have different preferences, while involuntary unemployment results from frictions in the labour market or from an efficiency wage. We consider the employment policies of a well-informed government when it can and cannot commit to its policies. The model is simple, yet rich enough to reflect real-world policies, including transfers to the disabled, welfare for non-working employables, unemployment insurance, employment subsidies, and taxes on workers and firms.     

Effects of pro-growth policies on employment: evidence of regional disparities

The main objective of our research is to study the direct impact of pro-growth economic policies on employment creation globally and regionally, as evidence has countered policy-makers’ expectation that output growth leads automatically to job creation. We innovate by using the ratio of employment to the population above 25 years as dependent variable instead of the customary employment elasticity. We apply generalized methods of moments’ econometrics on dynamic panel data models and find that growth stimulates employment creation on average across 76 countries. The policies promoting private sector credit, investments, openness, services, education spending, tertiary enrollment, and a fixed exchange rate are the ones that create employment. Larger government size undermines job creation, while policies promoting FDI and industrial development fail to stimulate employment. However, we establish that the effect of pro-growth policies on employment varies significantly across regions, with evidence of weaker links between economic policies and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East.     

我国灵活就业的雇佣关系

在我国传统计划经济时期的安置就业退出历史舞台以后,灵活就业逐渐成为我国社会实现充分就业的主要渠道。与此相适应,就是灵活就业也给我们带来了多样化的雇佣关系。本文在两年多的专题调查研究基础上,分析了我国灵活就业劳动雇佣关系的现状特点,对灵活就业群体及其雇主做了分类,对雇佣关系引发的冲突问题作了归纳分析,对不同类型的灵活就业的雇佣关系提出了规范化管理的思路和对策建议。     

The employment effects of sustainable development policies

This paper argues that it is time for ecological economists to bring the employment impacts of sustainable development policies to the forefront of the research agenda. Important conservation efforts continue to founder because of their perceived employment effects. The paper examines the evidence on the employment impacts of sustainable development policies and argues that maintaining or even increasing employment depends critically on appropriate policy design and attention to the political economy of implementation of policies. The paper concludes that a better understanding of these issues, fair labour market and structural adjustment programs, and especially forward planning to anticipate problem areas, must replace the piecemeal, ‘knee-jerk’ reactions to environmental issues, such as were evident in Australia during the last federal election.     

中国就业发展新论——核心就业与非核心就业理论分析

正如企业创新作为市场经济的基本动力受到忽视 ,核心就业作为市场就业的基础在中国经济改革以来一直没有受到足够重视 ,因此造成了今天就业发展特别困难的局面。核心就业是指直接参与、引导、促进和扶持企业创新活动的那部分就业。在长期 ,核心就业的兴衰决定了市场经济中总体就业的兴衰。中国企业的核心就业水平目前仅达到 2 5%左右 ,总体核心就业水平达到 3 0 %左右。为了达到 80 %左右的市场一般核心就业水平的目标 ,中国需要改变现行的国有企业改革模式 ,建立政府权力均衡机制 ,以良性发挥政府功能 ,以及完善农村的改革和发展道路等各项政策措施。     

弱势就业群体的就业与再就业问题探讨

在我国社会转型、体制转轨的背景下，由于社会保障制度的建立与改革滞后，弱势就业群体的范围和数量不断扩大，他们与其他群体之间的差距加大，其社会心理动荡强烈，日益被边缘化。因此，研究弱势就业群体的就业与再就业问题具有十分重要的现实意义。     

我国现行劳动统计的问题

目前我国有两种劳动统计。一种是以人口普查为主体的劳动统计 ,另外一种是由城镇单位劳动统计、工商行政管理局对私营企业和个体工商户的行政登记、以及乡村就业人员统计三者组成的“三合一”劳动统计。两种劳动统计在就业人员总数、就业人员的行业构成以及它们的时间变化等方面均存在着较大的分歧。本文通过讨论两种劳动统计在统计方法上的差异来揭示它们在统计结果上出现差异的原因 ,目的是对在经济分析中正确使用劳动统计提供帮助。     

《就业促进法》中平等就业权司法救济条款的缺陷与完善

狭义的平等就业权是指公民不受歧视地获得劳动机会的权利.平等就业权从本质上说属于私权利,因而应该具有权利救济程序.<就业促进法>实现了平等就业权由虚置的宪法权利向具体权利的转变.但<劳动法>以及现行行政诉讼和民事诉讼制度与该原则不匹配,形成对该救济权的限制.因此应该通过扩大劳动法和行政诉讼法的适用范围,同时改革我国传统诉权理论,确立利益主义诉权原则,建立公益诉讼制度,以实现对平等就业权的司法救济.     

试论加入WTO对中国就业结构的影响

在分析就业弹性变化的基础上，本文考察了入世对就业的影响，总体上来看，WTO对就业的影响在方向上和目前就业的发展和变化趋势一致，这就决定了入世对就业不会造成净负面影响，但分三次产业来看，入世对就业的影响是不同的，农业是受入世影响和冲击最严重的行业，但农业因此而损失的就业机会中相当于目前农村剩余劳动力数量的极小一部分，约占0.7-1%左右，入世对农业的影响和冲击主要体现在收入而不是就业上；入世对工业就业的影响有正有负，这要依具体工业待业特点而定，但增减相抵，入世对工业就业仍然具有增加效应；最后，入世将大大促进就业机会的增加，第三产业就业是中国入世最大的收益者。     

Macroeconomic stabilization in developing economies: Are optimal policies procyclical?

Many empirical studies provide evidence that macroeconomic policies as well as capital flows exhibit procyclical characteristics in developing economies. In particular Kaminsky et al. [2004. When it rains, it pours: Procyclical capital flows and macroeconomic policies. NBER Macroeconomics Annual, MIT Press] demonstrate that a large group of middle-income countries run contractionary policies and experience capital flight during times of recession. This paper investigates the role of international financial markets in explaining these macroeconomic policy and capital flow characteristics. An optimal fiscal and monetary policy problem is formulated and solved for a small-open economy that faces a country-specific interest rate spread in international financial markets. It is found that, in the presence of the country spread, optimal fiscal and monetary policies as well as capital flows are procyclical under a reasonable parametrization. Optimal policies and capital flows turn countercyclical in the absence of the country spread. This pattern is robust to a range of alternative model specifications.     

Financial frictions and stabilization policies

After the financial crisis of 2007, in many economies, public and private debt have moved in opposite directions, as opposed to pre-2007 evidence. Private deleverage and public debt build-up may affect the recovery path of countries after a recession. In a new Keynesian model with financial frictions, we show that when the economy is hit by a credit risk shock, the negative correlation arising between public and private debt amplifies the response of GDP. In our setup, the traditional monetary-fiscal policy mix is not enough to offset this private-public debt mechanism and therefore bring back economic stability. When macroprudential policy is part of the policy mix, the private-public debt channel can be broken. Interestingly, depending on the macroprudential instrument, a trade-off may arise between private debt and output stabilization.     

Macroeconomic policies in a supergame oligopolistic economy

This paper examines the impact of macroeconomic policies in a general equilibrium system where the product market is modelled as an oligopolistic supergame. It is shown that policies which affect the interest rate, influence the degree of competition and hence the level of output in the economy. The analysis reveals that some macroeconomic policies may have perverse and counter intuitive effects in the system.     

Employment and hours of work

This paper develops a dynamic model of the labor market in which the degree of substitution between employment and hours of work is determined as part of a search equilibrium. Each firm chooses its demand for working hours and number of vacancies, and the earnings profile is determined by Nash bargaining. The earnings profile is generally nonlinear in hours of work, and defines the trade-off between employment and hours of work. Concave production technology induces firms to overemploy and, as a result, hours of work are below their optimal level. The Hosios condition is not sufficient for efficiency. When there are two industries, workers employed by firms with higher recruitment costs work longer and earn more. That is, “good jobs” require longer hours of work. Interestingly, technology differentials cannot account for working hours differentials.     

Employment effects of introducing a minimum wage: The case of Germany

Income inequality has been a major concern of economic policy makers for several years. Can minimum wages help to mitigate inequality? In 2015, the German government introduced a nationwide statutory minimum wage to reduce income inequality by improving the labour income of low-wage employees. However, the employment effects of wage increases depend on time and region specific conditions and, hence, they cannot be known in advance. Because negative employment effects may offset the income gains for low-wage employees, it is important to evaluate minimum-wage policies empirically. We estimate the employment effects of the German minimum-wage introduction using panel regressions on the state-industry-level. We find a robust negative effect of the minimum wage on marginal and a robust positive effect on regular employment. In terms of the number of jobs, our results imply a negative overall effect. Hence, low-wage employees who are still employed are better off at the expense of those who have lost their jobs due to the minimum wage.     

新疆外来农民工劳动就业状况及存在的问题

国家统计局新疆调查总队通过对农民工就业的抽样调查分析,认为新疆农民工在就业费用、范围、稳定性等方面得到了较大改善,但农民工就业仍然存在劳动时间长,强度大,拖欠、克扣劳动报酬等问题。因此,各级党政机关和社会各界应高度重视农民工就业问题。     

农村劳动力转移培训的政策研究

由于在城市就业的农村劳动力缺乏技能,为提高工作和生活水平他们愿意参加培训。但存在的问题是培训费用过高,培训资源相对短缺,培训质量不高等。本文研究了中央政府对农村劳动力培训政策的演变,对比了各地方政府对农村劳动力培训的补贴金额,并同时提出政策措施。     

International interdependencies in fiscal stabilization policies

Trade links imply that business cycle fluctuations are transmitted among trade partners. To the extent that fiscal policy can mitigate business cycle fluctuations international interdependencies in stabilization policies arise. We analyse in a two country general equilibrium model the role of fiscal policy in mitigating risk or providing implicit insurance in the presence of capital market imperfections and adjustment failures (rigid wages). It is shown that there is a welfare case for an active stabilization policy, and that it is larger in the presence of adjustment failures (rigid wages). Non-cooperative policy decisions imply inefficiencies in fiscal stabilization policies, which in the case of flexible wages may imply too much stabilization, whereas stabilization is always insufficient in the case of rigid wages.     

Employment Protection and Product Market Competition

A firm facing employment protection will defend its market position more fiercely than a rival firm operating without such restrictions. However, ex ante such firms may be more reluctant to expand. For the benchmark case of contest competition, the defensive effect dominates. A firm facing employment protection has a stronger average market position.     

新时期中国就业政策选择

中国是一个快速工业化的发展中大国,其丰富的人力资源是一个巨大的相对优势,但同时也是国家发展的一个沉重压力。中国目前的发展已经进入了一个新阶段,需要结合劳动生产率的提高,通过扩大就业规模来建立和谐社会,促进经济增长,通过经济增长方式的调整来实现以就业增长促进经济增长。     

Destabilizing effects of a successful stabilization: a forward-looking explanation of the second Hungarian hyperinflation

Summary. The extreme severity of the second Hungarian hyperinflation is argued to be related to the unusual way in which the inflation was eventually stabilized. The historical features of this episode are represented in a general equilibrium model, which incorporates a transition from one monetary regime to another. During the inflation the government finances a fixed deficit with seigniorage revenue. After the stabilization the government budget is balanced and the central bank engages in a program of subsidized lending to the private sector. Stabilization is achieved by targeting a low inflation rate path through adjustments in the quantity of central bank lending. I show that under this stabilization policy (1) the dynamic equilibrium path of the economy is indeterminate and (2) arbitrarily high pre-stabilization inflation rates are possible. Received: November 5, 1998; revised version: November 30, 1998