欧洲货币一体化中的财政约束研究——基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角

随着目前欧元区财政经济状况的整体恶化,稳定与增长的矛盾凸显,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束条款再度引发诸多争议。基于价格水平的财政理论(FTPL)视角,本文试图论证为实现欧元区物价稳定和欧元汇率稳定的双重目的,欧盟《稳定与增长公约》框架下的财政约束有其必要性。     

货币政策：从提高透明度到交流战略——原因、理论基础、争论和发展趋势

过去三十年,为了增强宏观政策的微观基础,货币政策从消除隐秘性、提高透明度、及时全面公开信息到向主动加强交流、研究市场反馈、管理预期和引导预期方向发展。即从中央银行被动披露过去既成数据、规则、一个声音说话到向公布央行内部对未来主要经济指标预测及分歧、延迟公布内部意见分歧方向发展。     

Monetary convergence to the Euro

This special issue of Economic Systems includes seven papers about various aspects of monetary convergence to the Euro. It includes both policy discussion papers examining a wide range of issues and empirical studies evaluating specific areas of monetary convergence. From a policy strategy view, the selected papers examine the ways of combining the two key objectives of monetary convergence, i.e., price stability and exchange rate stability. In addition, the papers analyze the interplay between monetary policies and financial market stability. The findings provide new insights on monetary policy transmission channels, market equilibrium exchange rates, interest rates pass through effects, the importance of real relative to nominal convergence, and other intricacies encountered on the passage toward the Euro.     

The Right Road to Monetary Union

How should European monetary coordination develop? John Chown and Geoffrey Wood argue that the European central banks should be forced to compete in providing the best monetary services.     

Monetary Union or International Monetary Order?

Is European Monetary Union desirable? Pascal Salin, of the Univeristy of Paris, argues that any system of fixed exchange rates such as the EMS Exchange Rate Mechanism, is likely to prove unsatisfactory.     

The Conduct of Monetary Policy Without Monetary Aggregates

A central dilemma for the monetary authorities is how to determine monetary policy. The increasing unreliability of monetary aggregates has led over the past few years to less concern for monetary targeting, both in the UK and elsewhere, and a greater influence for the exchange rate on monetary policy. But in the UK, most recently, there has been a move away from setting monetary policy in relation to the exchange rate and external considerations in favour of setting monetary policy in relation to domestic demand. Not surprisingly, this shift has occurred at a time of rising concern about domestic overheating. It illustrates the dilemma of whether monetary policy should be driven by domestic demand considerations or by external, exchange rate considerations. This dilemma is not just confined to the UK for it is a real source of conflict underlying the Louvre Accord and its successors that seek to determine G7 exchange rates in a cooperative manner. In what follows, we argue that exchange rate developments should have an appreciable influence on monetary policy, since this is helpful in attaining stable inflation. But we also suggest that this influence should not go too far, since this stability of inflation may be at the expense of stability of domestic demand and output. Targeting of exchange rates within narrow bands is unlikely to be desirable, unless fiscal policy can be used more flexibly to stabilize domestic demand. This suggests that, in the period up to the spring, the use of monetary policy to hold the £/JDM exchange rate within narrow limits may have been overdone. More seriously, international exchange rate agreements among the G7 countries are likely to founder under adverse market pressures, unless current imbalances in fiscal policy are adjusted. In the absence of greater flexibility in fiscal policy, policy makers will have to trade off domestic and exchange rate considerations in determining monetary policy. An important outstanding issue that needs further consideration is what indicators should be used for monetary policy, in a world in which monetary aggregates provide unreliable signals.     

Monetary policy

The past three months have seen market interest rates rise sharply across the yield curve. At the shorter end, overnight index swap (OIS) rates, which the Bank of England uses to calculate market expectations of the path of Bank Rate, imply that markets now expect the first increase in rates to come within the next eighteen months. At the same time the longer end of the yield curve has also risen, with the yield on 10‐year government bonds briefly rising above 3% in early September, the first time that this has happened since July 2011…     

Monetary Policy

We are fast approaching the point at which the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will have to make a decision about the future of its forward guidance policy. The policy had been intended to reassure households, firms and markets that Bank Rate would remain at 0.5% for a prolonged period. However, the economy and, in particular the labour market, have improved so quickly that unemployment will reach the 7% threshold within the next few months, more than two years earlier than the Bank had forecast when it introduced forward guidance…     

Monetary policy rules for convergence to the Euro

This paper investigates the applicability of open-economy convergence-consistent instrument rules for monetary policies in the economies undergoing monetary convergence to a common currency area. The proposed policy rule is forward-looking, consistent with a monetary framework based on inflation-targeting containing input variables that are relative to the corresponding variables in the common currency area. Robust forms of the policy rule are tested empirically for three inflation-targeting countries converging to the euro, i.e. the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary. Empirical tests imply systemic differences in monetary policies among these euro-candidates. The Czech monetary policy seemingly follows the rule prescribed by our model. Both the Czech and the Polish central bank interest rate policies respond predominantly to changes in the inflation gap, while the Hungarian responds mainly to the exchange rate gap. In all three cases, changes in the eurozone short-term interest rates strongly drive adjustments in the central banks’ reference interest rates.     

Monetary policy

The MPC set out ‘phase two’ of forward guidance in February. The strength of the recovery and the sharp fall in unemployment towards the 7% threshold used for the MPC's first phase of forward guidance had led investors to bring forward their expectations for the timing of the first rate hike…     

From European Union to European Monetary Union: the new member states and accession countries of Central and Eastern Europe in 2004

The 10 new member states and candidate countries from Central and Eastern Europe have made the institutional reforms embodied in the acquis communautaire, including developing institutions of social dialogue which are supposed to ease the path to entry into the European Monetary Union (EMU). This review assesses the challenges facing the Central and Eastern European countries in achieving the targets set for EMU entry and questions whether the existing institutions of social dialogue will be able to bear the strain of achieving those targets.     

Monetary policy

The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) had been split over the first half of the year, with one camp of three members unconvinced by evidence of strengthening activity and consistently voting for further QE, and the remaining six members content to maintain the current policy stance…     

Rivalry Restraint as Equilibrium Behavior

Rivalry restraint has received a lot of attention as a theory of profits in recent research on business strategy. Its economic rationale is explained as the consequences of either exogenous or endogenous anticompetitive forces present in different industries. In this paper, we use a dynamic oligopolistic industry model and show that rivalry restraint emerges as equilibrium behavior among firm owners who delegate decisions to managers. In the corresponding two‐stage game, managers choose optimal production rates in a dynamic Cournot market and owners set incentives for managers, acting sequentially rational. Equilibrium incentives correspond to rivalry restraint, that is, managers are less aggressive in the product market with lower outputs and increasing profits for all firms in the industry.     

The Monetary Multiplier

After modelling the circulation of money as a Markov chain, a special multiplier is set up, explained and investigated. It describes, in mathematical terms, the enlivening course of new money, or the propagation of a monetary injection into a given economy, which David Hume inspected in his famous essay. Some explanation is given to why he considered it, justly, as a transitory phenomenon.     

我国货币政策冲击对实际产出周期波动的非对称影响分析

本文运用马尔可夫转移模型和冲击响应分析等方法，检验了我国货币政策冲击与实际产出之间的动态关系，发现货币政策冲击对产出的影响存在明显的非对称性，并且产出对货币冲击的反应存在着“低度反应”和“高度反应”区制；我们通过时变转移概率方法进一步检验描述非对称反应的三种可能形式，即关于货币政策冲击方向、冲击规模和经济周期阶段的非对称形式。     

收益率平价在货币危机预测中的应用

在本文中，我们首次提出了用收益率差作为领先指标来预测由危机的发生。本文从理论上证明了过去的实际收益率中包含预期收益率信息，从而从理论上解决了用过去实际的收益率差来预测货币危机的可行性问题。对19个国家25年（1975－2000）月度数据的拟合效果表明，经汇率调整后对美国股市收益差有着较好的预测结果，同时我们的结果也表明收益率预测指标对2001年7月爆发的阿根廷货币危机有较好的样本外测效果。