财政政策与货币政策的动态调控效应——基于时变参数向量自回归模型的检验

本文廓清了财政政策与货币政策搭配动态调控宏观经济的机理,揭示了两者协调影响经济的“黑箱”机制及其在经济不同阶段的搭配方式;运用中国2004—2019年的经济季度数据,构建TVP SV VAR模型探究两类政策对宏观经济的调控效应。研究发现：财政政策与货币政策共同把控流动性“闸门”实现互动协调;财政政策搭配货币政策具有时变性,在整体上“同向发力”推动经济发展;两类政策对产出的影响并非始终如理论一致,在结构层面仍有优化靶向性操作的余地。     

对开放数据新态势的观察与思考

数据已被视为一种重要的战略资源,是全球经济中新的资本要素。开放数据可给世界各国带来巨大的经济效益,催生大量新企业的诞生,并有助于新产品和新服务的创造,推动一些科技领域飞速发展。美国在开放数据方面走在世界最前列,奥巴马政府出重拳推动开放数据以促进创新创业和经济增长,并将科研数据开放视为数据政策和重要组成部分。我国应进一步控掘开放数据对于创新创业及经济增长的推动作用,充分认识开放数据有助于进一步推动企业成为创新主体,同时要注重开放数据的制度化。     

国外促进低碳经济发展的税收政策及启示

欧盟、美国、日本等国家在促进低碳经济发展方面都有本国的税收政策,应基于中国国情并借鉴国外先进经验,着力打造适合中国国情的低碳经济。为此,需进一步完善税收政策,坚持有所为、有所不为的原则,从而实现经济增长与可持续发展。     

从美、日、欧经验探索我国低碳经济实现路径

低碳经济是一种全新的经济发展模式,其实质是能源高效利用、清洁能源开发,核心是能源技术、产业结构和制度创新以及人类生存发展观念的根本性转变。首先,通过文献回顾,系统阐述了美、日、欧典型经济发达国家关于低碳经济的相关政策和发展经验;其次简单探讨了当前我国发展低碳经济困难;最后从宣传、经济政策和低碳技术体系三方面探讨了中国发展低碳经济的路线图。     

中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力——基于传统IS-LM模型的实证分析

文章通过借助传统IS-LM模型和比较静态分析方法对中国改革开放以来财政政策平滑经济波动的能力进行了实证分析,得出:(1)财政政策对经济波动的整体平滑能力较低,平均只有6.35%,财政政策的平滑能力在经济波动的不同状态之间存在明显差异;(2)财政政策工具之间的平滑能力存在较大差异,其中财政购买性支出能平滑掉经济初始冲击的11.48%,而财政转移性支出和收入政策整体上反而使经济波动上升近3%;(3)内生性检验表明,中国只有相机性支出政策与经济波动之间存在显著的双向因果关系,不仅如此,相机性支出政策的内外时滞都较短。文章结论的政策含义是,提高中国财政政策稳定效果的关键在于提高政策工具的有效性与相互之间的协同效应,不仅如此,对经济高涨时期政府财政行为进行有效约束也至关重要。     

Political Economy of Conditional Aid in a Federal Economy

This paper employs a political economy approach to model the joint determination of national and subnational sectoral protection in an open federal economy. Political interactions between special interest groups and policymakers as well as economic interrelationships between federal and state government policies are analyzed. The model is applied to study the effects of conditional financial assistance on policy‐making in the aid‐receiving federal economy. We find that policy‐based financial assistance to the federal government tends to reduce the extent of distortions resulting from the federal government policy. However, if federal and state government policies are strategic substitutes, state government induced policy distortions would increase, thereby detracting from the effectiveness of conditionality in reducing overall policy distortions in the recipient economy.     

A Model of Structural Change and Openness: Applications to the Argentine economy

This paper describes a dynamic, multisectoral model of a less developed economy in which investment and income distribution policies influence structural change and the pattern of trade. That is, the model considers a Keynesian 'socialised investment' function and distributional policies that, by their effect on demand, could be also described as Keynesian. The model is used to analyse the effects of different policy regimes in the Argentine economy. In an environment characterised by enduring stagnation, investment policies aimed at increasing the degree of economic autonomy and self-sufficiency do not succeed in significantly changing output and trade patterns, and in reducing the degree of openness of the economy. From a long term perspective, however, stagnation is not necessarily a permanent condition. A new environment of higher growth could evolve from the consolidation of a new technological paradigm and the emergence of new socioeconomic norms and mechanisms. In an environment of lower uncertainty and higher efficacy of the investment, model simulation shows that investment policy is quite successful in augmenting the degree of autonomy and self-sufficiency of the economy. Also, income redistribution has a positive impact on income and welfare growth.     

A welfare economic analysis of labor market policies in the Harris–Todaro model

This paper presents a welfare economic analysis of the benefits of various labor market policies in the Harris–Todaro labor market model. The policies considered are a policy of modern sector job creation, which I call modern sector enlargement (MSENL); a policy of rural development, which I call traditional sector enrichment (TSENR); and a policy of wage limitation in the urban economy, which I call modern sector wage restraint (MSWR). First, I analyze the inequality effects of these policies. I then perform two welfare economic analyses, the first based on summary measures of labor market conditions (total labor earnings, unemployment, inequality of labor incomes, and poverty rates) and the second based on dominance analysis in the labor market, in both cases assuming that the costs are borne elsewhere. The results of the welfare analyses are compared, and it is shown that TSENR unambiguously increases welfare in the labor market using both approaches, the other policies yield ambiguous results, and no policy is unambiguously welfare-decreasing.     

Economic policy uncertainty and real output: evidence from the G7 countries

We use economic policy uncertainty index, and impulse response based test to assess the impact of economic policy-related uncertainty on real economic activity. We use monthly data, over the period from 1985:1 to 2015:3, and impulse response functions to investigate how the economies of the G7 countries respond to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks of different magnitudes. We find that economic policy uncertainty is countercyclical, that the effects of uncertainty shocks increase with size and that the responses of real output to positive and negative economic policy uncertainty shocks are country specific. Our research is important for policymaking and in favour of policies that remove economic uncertainty and its negative effects on the economy. We argue that some control over yellow journalism, a transparent tax system and a set of predictable fiscal and monetary policies can minimize the social costs of economic policy uncertainty.     

Alternative standards and instruments for air pollution control in Poland

Like other Central European countries, Poland faces the twin challenges of improving environmental quality while also fostering sustainable economic development. In this study we examine the costs of different standards for air pollution control, and the cost savings from using incentive-based policy instruments in lieu of more rigid command-and-control policies. The comparisons are based on the results of a simulation model of energy use and air pollution control for the Polish economy over 1990–2015. The model simulates least-cost energy supply decisions under different environmental policy assumptions, the corresponding emissions, and the cost of achieving the specified policy objectives. The model results suggest that incentive-based policies will have efficiency gains over command policies that are at least worthy of consideration and may be quite substantial. The size of the gains in practice depends in part on how much flexibility is built into the command approach, e.g., capacity for intrafirm trading as well as alack of technology-specific requirements. To achieve these gains, an increase in the current levels of emissions fees is desirable both to strengthen abatement incentives and to improve the capacity of the Polish government to overcome past environmental damages. However, it seems highly unlikely in practice that fees could be raised to the levels necessary to meet current Polish emissions standards. To make further headway, an evolutionary approach to emissions trading patterned after (and profiting from the experience with) emissions trading in the U.S. seems useful. The program could start out relatively modestly and increase in ambitiousness as the Polish economic transition proceeds.     

Analysis and Forecast of the State of Environmental Protection in Russia

The main purpose of the present study is to analyse the emission dynamics of atmospheric and water pollutants in Russia and cost of their removal in the 1980s and early 1990s, and to forecast them by means of a Dynamic Input–Output Model according to different scenarios of future economic development till 1998. Main results of the work are:– methodological principles have been elaborated for singling out the environmental protection sector within the national economy;– a method has been offered for including the ecological block into a Dynamic Input–Output Model of the Russian economy;– a method of data preparation has been elaborated for the ecological block of the above-named model, the data base which characterizes the ecological situation in Russia has been formed and analysed;– calculations for 1994–1998 have been executed for forecasting the economic and ecological development of Russia using the above-mentioned model and the results obtained have been analysed. The results showed that if the existing tendencies towards low environmental protection capital costs remain the same, then the negative environmental impact will increase. In order to implement ecological programs and international agreements, to increase the proportion of removed pollutants, it is necessary to increase substantially expenditures on purifying water and air resources. The proportion of environmental protection investments in the total amount of the national economy capital costs should increase by up to 12–40% according to different scenarios of the economic development and different purposes of the environmental protection policy.     

MODELLING THE TRANSITION TOWARDS THE RENMINBI'S FULL CONVERTIBILITY: IMPLICATIONS FOR CHINA'S GROWTH

There is a widespread consensus that China needs to rebalance its export‐driven growth paradigm towards a more consumption‐based one and that such process is to be accompanied by the transition towards the renminbi's full convertibility. However, the Chinese authorities have so far acted with great caution because this transition cannot but accelerate the slowdown of China's growth which will likely occur because of other structural factors. We address these issues by means of a two‐country two‐stage (before and after the renminbi's full convertibility) model, which reproduces some qualitative features of China's growth pattern and its relationship with the United States. We analyse the extent to which altering the Chinese exchange rate regime, as well as other policies affecting sensitive social and economic issues, may impact on the short‐, medium‐ and long‐term evolution of the Chinese economy. The paper shows that by lifting the controls on the capital account and letting the currency float, the Chinese authorities will renounce those policy instruments for controlling the allocation of the national resources and the dynamics of China's economy.     

A political economy approach to endogenous industrial policies

This paper uses a political economy perspective to study the endogenous formation of economic policies and its interplay with political institutions. This paper provides a novel view that both the institutions and economic development status are essential factors in endogenously determining economic policies. The model aims to explain both the differences in the degree of adopting industrial policies as well as the differences in the types of industrial policies being implemented. Using a concise framework with two country-specific characteristics, the baseline model can capture three main types of industrial policy platforms of interest. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively low, pro-heavy industry policies would be present most of the time; South Korea is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is positively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually an active industrial policy, though the target of the policy changes over time. Specifically, the policy is favoring the industry of which the industry-specific TFP is relatively high; Japan is representative of this type of countries. In a country where voters’ political awareness is negatively skewed and press freedom is relatively high, there is usually no active industrial policy; the U.S. is representative of this type of countries.     

Designing tax policy in federalist economies: An overview

The emerging economic federations of the European Union, Russia, and South Africa, along with the established federations in Australia, Canada, and the United States, confront the task of designing the institutions for federal fiscal policy. This paper reviews the literature on the design of tax policy in federalist economies. We conclude that taxation by lower level governments can lead to significant economic inefficiencies and inequities. The usual ‘assignment’ view of federalis recommends central government policies — for example, resident-based taxation or grants-in-aid — to correct these failures. These recommendations assume that the central government will act as a benevolent social planner. The ‘political economy’ view of federalism suggests that this assumption is in error and that additional federalist institutions must be considered. Alternative legislative structures and constitutional rules are considered.     

How elections affect fiscal policy and growth: revisiting the mechanism

This paper reconsiders the popular result that the lower is the probability of reelection, the greater is the incentive of incumbent politicians to choose short-sighted, inefficient policies. The set-up is a general equilibrium model of economic growth, in which fiscal policy is endogenously chosen under electoral uncertainty. Political parties can value possible economic benefits differently depending on whether they are in or out of power, and—by contrast with the literature—the relevant preference coefficient is a choice variable rather than an exogenous taste parameter. The main result is that, when political parties choose both economic policy instruments and preference coefficients, the fundamental reason for short-sighted policy is the extra rents from being in power per se.     

Federal transfers, environmental policy and economic growth

We study the effects of commonly used cross-country transfer programs on uncoordinated national environmental policies, economic growth and natural resources in a federal economy. Natural resources are a federation-wide public good. In each member country, production degrades the environment, but clean-up policy can improve it. Clean-up policy is financed by taxes on polluting firms’ output and cross-country redistributive transfers. We solve for a symmetric Nash equilibrium among national governments. Transfer policies that lead to higher pollution taxes make existence harder, and are harmful not only to growth but also to the environment. The best way to improve environmental quality is to implement a taxation system that stimulates growth and broadens tax bases to finance national clean-up policies.     

How to Achieve the Take-off into Sustained Growth: A Case Study for Slovenia

In this paper, we show that successful policy aimed at enhancing economic growth in the long run must be based on policies which improve human capital and technological progress. This is applied to Slovenia, a small open economy in the European Union and the Euro Area. In particular, we investigate how fiscal policies should be designed to support economic growth without violating the European Union Stability and Growth Pact. Using the SLOPOL10 model, an econometric model of the Slovenian economy, we analyse the effects of different fiscal policies in Slovenia over the next few years by means of simulations. The fiscal policy multipliers of the Slovenian economy are small and short-lived, which renders demand-side expansionary fiscal policies inappropriate as a means of achieving higher growth. However, if an increase in government expenditures directly related to technological progress is implemented (such as better funding for tertiary education or subsidies for firms’ investments in research and development), this can trigger a path of output which is permanently higher than that of the baseline simulation. Reducing income taxes and social security contributions has strong positive effects on employment. This result shows that the key to prosperity and sustained growth is investment in human capital and technology, also for a small open economy like Slovenia.     

Plans,disequilibria and macroeconomic policy simulations

In the paper some specific problems of applying a disequilibrium model of a centrally planned economy for policy simulation experiments are analysed. It is shown that a model in which demand, supply and plan output variables are simultaneously introduced can be used for policy simulation in a more effective way than a model which describes either demand or supply side of an economy. In the empirical part of the paper a disequilibrium-type model of the Polish economy is used for simulating alternative internal and external economic policies for 1971–80. It has been found that internal deflationary policies would have been relatively efficient in minimizing consumption excess demand at a given level of consumption output in the period investigated.     

城市创新能否助力低碳经济发展——创新型城市试点政策对碳强度的影响评估及机制分析

创新是城市发展的力量之源，低碳是城市发展的必由之路。将创新型城市试点作为一项准自然实验，利用2005—2018年全国275个城市面板数据，采用多期双重差分方法，评估创新型城市试点对降低碳强度的政策效应及作用机制。研究发现：第一，创新型城市试点政策能够在降低碳强度的基础上推动低碳经济发展，各类试点政策的推动效果依次为碳排放权交易政策>创新型城市政策>智慧城市政策>低碳城市政策>环境保护重点监控政策；第二，创新型城市试点政策可以通过规模经济效应、技术进步效应与结构转型效应3条路径助力低碳经济发展；第三，城市特质会影响创新型城市试点政策效应发挥，创新型城市试点政策对碳强度的抑制效果呈现由东到西递增的地理空间差序格局、由高到低递减的城市等级差序格局，在人口规模与抑制效果之间呈现倒U型作用，并且资源型城市的抑制效果显著大于非资源型城市。     

What Do Progressives Need to Know About Trade? Some observations on the competitiveness debate

In a recent book entitled Pop Internationalism Paul Krugman takes to task several prominent commentators who in recent years have published works decrying the loss of competitive position of the United States in an increasingly global economy. In particular, Krugman critically considers and rejects several arguments that he considers both wrong and dangerous. Among these are (1) the United States has lost, or is in the process of losing, its position of global technological leadership; (2) material standards of living in the US are threatened by the country's excessively liberal trade policies as compared with its trade partners; (3) stagnant or declining wages in the US are the result of trade with low wage Third World countries; (4) the US is in need of a new model and a corresponding policy approach that recognizes the changing structure of new global economic forces. The debate over the validity of the above assertions has been largely conducted between adherents of mainstream interpretations of international economic theory and policy. For Krugman the controversies are mostly a matter of a proper understanding of that theory along with an appreciation of the relevant data. The purpose of this paper is to offer an interpretation of the debate from a progressive left perspective. My position is that Krugman's critique of his imagined opponents on most issues is largely overdone and that there is actually substantive agreement among and between these mainstream views on most matters of trade and trade policy. More importantly, however, these same views, including Krugman's, are bounded by assumptions that are not supportable from a progressive left perspective. The title of the paper is an ironic twist on a title of one of Krugman's chapters, 'What do undergrads need to know about trade?'