机器学习随机森林模型在财政收入预测中的应用研究

财政收入预测在现代财政管理中扮演着不可或缺的角色。采用机器学习中的随机森林模型,结合陕西城市房产税收入和一般公共预算收入月度实际数据,挖掘影响各税种收入的关键因素,进而对陕西财政收入进行预测和分析。研究结论显示,随机森林模型能精准预测财政收入并分析其影响因素。相比于传统方法,该预测模型提高了预测准确性,能够为制定财政预算方案和优化财政政策提供科学依据,具有实际应用价值。基于财政收入影响因素与收入预测结果,为优化陕西财政政策提出建议。     

对财政困难县部门预算编制及执行的思考

阿瓦提县是“农业大县、工业小县、财政穷县”,地方财政十分困难,农业生产总值占地区生产总值的47％,2004年农牧业税占全县一般预算收入的35．3％,农牧业税减收后,由于无税源,增收乏力,2007年全县一般预算收入完成仅为4100万元,增长11％,税收收入仅占地方财政收入的57％,就“保工资、保改革、保稳定、保机构正常运转”经费占全县一般预算支出的70％。     

二○○九我国政府的土地财政

2009年,中国地方政府土地出让金收入总额达15000亿元.土地出让金本质上是地租收入.目前中国地方财政收入通常是指一般预算收入,并不包括土地出让金.2009年,城市政府土地出让金收入过千亿的有杭州和上海,土地出让金超过地方财政收入的有杭州、佛山、厦门、武汉和宁波等,说明城市政府对"土地财政"的倚仗日重,这就有赖于对地方公共财政的结构优化甚至全方位的改革.     

建立地方财政收入增长机制分析——以广东D市为例

当前,广东财政收支矛盾突出,全省财政面临着前所未有的支出压力。文章以广东某市为例,利用该市以前若干年相关统计资料,建立回归预测模型,对其未来几年的财政资金需求量进行预测,突出了财政收支矛盾。为保证地方财政收入稳定增长,就如何构建稳定的财政收入增长机制及如何解决地方财政困局进行了深入研究。     

提高一般公共预算收入占GDP比重的研究与思考

判断一个地区GDP、财政收入规模的大小,不仅要看其数量,更要看财政一般预算收入占GDP的比重,本文就我区一般预算收入占GDP比重的总体判断、主要原因,并就如何提高经济运行质量作初步探讨。     

构建一种地方财政收入的预测模型

地方财政收入的分析和预测是有关部门制定合理的财政政策和财政预算、强化地方财政收入监督管理的有效途径。本文试图运用国际经济理论和分析方法,建立一种地方财政收入的预测模型(季节性ARIMA),以期对地方财政收入做出准确、有效的分析和预测。     

构建一种地方财政收入的预测模型

地方财政收入的分析和预测是有关部门制定合理的财政政策和财政预算、强化地方财政收入监督管理的有效途径.本文试图运用国际经济理论和分析方法,建立一种地方财政收入的预测模型(季节性ARIMA),以期对地方财政收入做出准确、有效的分析和预测.     

吐鲁番市财政收入可持续增长探索

1、自2005年以来吐鲁番市地方财政收入呈递增趋势,2007年比2005年增长40．4％,其收入总额的年均增速达到18．49％,只能满足“吃饭”财政的需要,正常运转还处于低水平形式,截至2007年底吐鲁番市一般预算支山滚存结余赤字3784万元,也就是说当前的财政收入远远不能满足当地发展的需求;     

财政隐性赤字的危害与对策

近年来，一些地方财政形势严峻，财政赤字规模不断扩大，财政隐性赤字已到非常严重的地步，必须认真对待和研究。 　　一、财政隐性赤字形成的原因 　　(一 )财政收入存有水分。 　　近几年来，为了完成上级下达的财政收入任务，一些地方和财税部门采取一些违规手段通过金库调入调出资金虚增财政收入。它包括以下几种形式： 　　1.空转收入。即财政通过安排支出的途径，将已安排支出的资金再以税款等形式缴入金库，计入当年财政收入。如某地方财政通过列收列支形式，将当年未完成的预算收入，在预算内以挖改支出名义拨给企业，而企业再以上…     

基于灰色残差模型的我国财政收入预测

为提高我国财政收入的预测精度,更好地实现财政收入的资源配置、收入再分配和宏观经济调控的职能,在传统灰色预测技术的基础上,本文建立了残差灰色预测模型预测我国财政收入,并通过实例分析验证了该模型的实用性和精确性。     

Revenue forecasting, budget setting and risk

The budget-making process can be viewed as a problem of decision making under uncertainty since revenues are unknown at the time the budget is written. Revenue forecasts become information for describing the uncertainty in revenue receipts, thereby allowing the decision maker to trade off desire for a larger budget against the uncertainty in revenues. A chance constraint decision model is used to model this process. Application of the model to evaluate alternative forecasting techniques is then demonstrated for several revenue sources used in Kansas City, Missouri.     

中国省级政府债务风险测度与分析

将财政收入分解为税收收入,土地出让收入以及其他收入。假设三类收入分别服从扩散过程,利用伊藤引理和投资组合理论,建立地方政府债务违约概率测算模型。省级政府债务违约风险的评价结果表明：税收收入和其他收入对地方政府债务违约风险的影响较大,“土地财政”的影响相对较小;偿还债务的期限越长,地方政府债务的违约风险越低;东、中、西部地区的省级地方政府债务的违约风险存在显著差别。西部地区省份的违约风险最高,东部发达地区的违约风险最低。发债试点的8个省市的违约风险普遍较低。四是如果偿还期限为5年,有29个省份的地方政府债务违约风险低于50%。     

The Role of Symmetry between the Revenue and the Expenditure Side of the Government Budget in the Debate about the Potential Negative Effects of Tax Competition

The effects of capital tax competition are reconsidered in this paper incorporating the argument that the expenditure structure of public budget should reflect its revenue structure. The paper offers a small open economy model where capital and labour tax revenues are used exclusively on the provision of public inputs. It is shown that if the revenue side of the government budget exactly matches the expenditure side that is if industrial public goods are financed by both private production factors with the weights reflecting the contributions of public inputs to the private factor productivity then public inputs are provided optimally even in the presence of tax competition.     

Efficiency of Regional Public Investment: An NPV-Based Spatial Econometric Approach

This paper develops a new methodology of spatial econometric modelling for regional public investment in local economies. The approach, based on the financial concept of net present value of cash flows, can be applied in the analysis of regional public investment with long-term financial inputs and outputs. With local public revenues related to spending in the model, one can observe economies of scale of investment with possible saturation effects and a marginal investment multiplier, explaining the extent to which public investment costs translate into public revenues. The main advantage of the proposed model is to behave counter-cyclically due to accumulation over the periods and to cover multi-period investments as well as postponed effects. This paper gives an example of public investment efficiency in Polish NUTS-5 municipalities regions.     

"Revenue Accounting" in the Age of E-Commerce: A Framework for Conceptual, Analytical, and Exchange Rate Considerations

This paper explores "revenue accounting" in contrast to traditional "cost accounting". Revenue accounting serves the information needs of managers and investors in planning and controlling a firm's sales activities and their financial consequences, especially in the age of e-commerce. Weaknesses of traditional accounting have become particularly evident recently, for example, the lack of 1) revenue mileposts, 2) revenue sustainability measurements, and 3) intangibles capitalization. The paper emphasizes the need to develop a conceptual framework of revenue accounting and, as a tentative measure, proposes five basic postulates and five operational postulates of revenue accounting. On the side of analytical frameworks, the paper explores some tentative remedies for the weaknesses. Several revenue mileposts are explored to gauge progress in earning revenues and a Markov process is applied to an example involving mileposts. Revenue momentum, measured by the exponential smoothing method, is examined as a way of getting feedback on revenue sustainability; and the use of the sustainability concept in the analysis of "fixed and variable revenues" is illustrated. A project-oriented approach in a manner similar to capital budgeting and to Reserve Recognition Accounting is proposed by treating each customer as a project. Standardization of forecasts are also considered as an important way of bypassing the capitalization issue. Finally, while e-commerce is inherently global, issues specific to global operations are highlighted, namely, exchange rate issues when venture capitalists and the start-up company use different currencies producing different rates of return on the same project.     

Estimating cigarette-tax revenue

This paper presents a cigarette-tax revenue model which predicts potential tax revenues. The model is unique in that revenues are estimated in a two-stage process which is invariant to the type of state sales/excise tax regime. The model also controls for cross-state spillover effects. The empirical model was estimated using data from Alabama and surrounding states from 1955 to 1990. The results suggest the demand for cigarettes in Alabama is relatively inelastic; spillover effects are found but are small in scale; and additional revenue potentials can be realized by changes in the tax regime.     

政府收支分类改革下的医院支出预算管理

本文创造性的以政府收支分类这一基础性环节为切入点,创新将其放在研究医院支出预算管理的改革问题基础上,并以此为指导深入分析政府收支分类体系对医院支出效益、规模的影响;并结合当前政府收支分类体系改革,通过推行绩效预算管理方式,坚定预算支出的执行等,实现医院支出预算管理的不断完善。     

分税制体制下我国财政审计创新研究

财税制体系的完善,需要财政审计监督机制的保驾护航。为保障分税制的顺利实施,应积极探索财政审计创新,采取加强预算管理审计、加强财政转移支付审计、加强财政专项审计和审计调查、推行财政收支绩效审计等创新措施。     

高校财务管理的现状及对策

文章从高等学校财务管理的现状谈起,结合高校财务管理的特点,指出高校在预算管理、收入支出管理、资产管理、内部审计中存在的问题,分析归纳出产生问题的原因,并针对问题提出一些改善对策建议。     

浙江省区域物流与经济增长的实证研究

基于浙江省1990~2012年统计数据,运用ADL模型及格兰杰因果检验对浙江省区域物流与经济增长的相互关系进行了研究。结果表明:从长期来看,浙江省GDP、全社会货物周转量及港口货物吞吐量三者之间存在着单向的因果关系。港口货物吞吐量是全社会货物周转量增加的格兰杰原因,全社会货物周转量和港口货物吞吐量平均每增长1%,分别带动浙江省GDP增长0.8672%和0.9903%。