Overlapping expectations and Hart's conditions for equilibrium in a securities model

Hart (J. Econ. Theory9 (1974), 293–311) gave conditions for equilibrium to exist in a securities model where each agent undertakes asset transactions to maximize expected utility of wealth. These conditions rule out agents wanting to undertake unbounded balanced transactions to reach a Pareto superior allocation given their expectations. With mild extra assumptions to make agents unwilling to risk incurring unbounded losses on their portfolios, Hart's conditions become equivalent to an assumption of “overlapping expectations,” which is comparable to a much weaker form of Green's “common expectations” (Econometrica41 (1973), 1103–1124).     

On linear models with rational expectations which admit a unique solution

Based on a generalization of Doob's theorem, the method used in this paper is applied to derive the unique reduced form a general linear model containing rational expectations of the current endogenous variables made in several previous periods. In this procedure there is no need for assumptions on the structure of the policy instruments.     

BEYOND TEST SCORES: THE IMPACT OF BLACK TEACHER ROLE MODELS ON RIGOROUS MATH TAKING

Rigorous math has a positive impact on ultimate educational attainment and earnings, but black high school students enroll in advanced math classes at low rates. Curriculum choice is determined by prior academic achievement and expectations for future schooling, both of which can be influenced by role models. This article finds that increasing the percentage of math teachers who are black has a nontrivial, positive impact on the likelihood that a black geometry student will enroll in a subsequent rigorous math course. This race-based role model effect occurs only for opposite-sex student/teacher matches.     

Balance sheet identity and Walras' Law

The balance sheet identity is interpreted to imply that if n ? 1 of n assets are in stock equilibrium, so is the remaining asset. Under the notion of the end-of-period equilibrium, the following are shown. (1) This interpretation leads to the contradiction that the system does not allow enough independent equilibrium relations to determine uniquely the equilibrium values of its endogenous variables. (2) The balance sheet identity is equivalent to Walras' Law in flow form. Thus, Foley's methodological precept is verified; transforming a period model into its continuous time analogue does not lead to different outcomes from period analysis.     

Low information nash equilibria for oligopolistic markets

This paper deals with an infinite horizon n firm oligopoly in which firms are assumed to have incomplete information about one another's actions and profit functions. An equilibrium concept is defined that is similar to the Nash non-cooperative equilibrium, but is suitable for the information assumptions of the model. The equilibrium uses a type of bounded rationality which makes firms' computations relatively easy. This is due to an implicit assumption that computation is costly and a Bayesian approach is prohibitively costly. This low information Nash equilibrium is proved to exist, and, in addition, an adaptive expectations decision process is described which, if followed by all firms, leads to the low information Nash equilibrium.     

Publications and papers

America’s elementary and secondary educational system is faced with an inefficiency stemming from a basic problem associated with unobservability: moral hazard. In this case, the teacher (agent) has an incentive to exert less effort (given cost associated with more work) if the school district (principal) cannot distinguish between low student performance due to a lack of teacher effort and low student performance due low student quality (random variable). This research develops an optimal incentive scheme that guarantees the teacher a fixed payment, plus a variable payment that would be a function of teacher ‘action’ variables thereby reducing moral hazard.     

Candidate reputations and the ‘incumbency effect’

A major shortcoming of the classical median voter model is that its central prediction — convergence of platforms to the median voter's ideal — is seldom observed. One reason is that the classical model neglects the importance of voter expectations as a determinant of votes. Here we associate voters' expectations about candidates with past as well as current candidate pronouncements, and assume that incumbents whose actions are consistent with their ‘reputations’ are perceived as less risky than challengers. In equilibrium candidates choose distinct platforms. Typically neither adopts the median voter's ideal point. Either candidate may win depending on how well the incumbent's reputation reflects current voter tastes and how relatively ‘risky’ the electorate perceives the challenger to be.     

Limited information minimal state variable learning in a medium-scale multi-country model

Rational expectations has been the dominant way to model expectations, but the literature has quickly moved to a more realistic assumption of boundedly rational learning where agents are assumed to use only a limited set of information to form their expectations. A standard assumption is that agents form expectations by using the correctly specified reduced form model of the economy, the minimal state variable solution (MSV), but they do not know the parameters. However, with medium-sized and large models the closed-form MSV solutions are difficult to attain given the large number of variables that could be included. Therefore, agents base expectations on a misspecified MSV solution. In contrast, we assume that agents know the deep parameters of their own optimising frameworks. However, they are not assumed to know the structure nor the parameterisation of the rest of the economy, nor do they know the stochastic processes generating shocks hitting the economy. In addition, agents are assumed to know that the changes (or the growth rates) of fundament variables can be modelled as stationary ARMA(p,q) processes, the exact form of which is not, however, known by agents. This approach avoids the complexities of dealing with a potential vast multitude of alternative misspecified MSVs.Using a new multi-country euro area model with boundedly estimated rationality we show that this approach is compatible with the same limited information assumption that was used in deriving and estimating the behavioural equations of different optimising agents. We find that there are strong differences in the adjustment path to the shocks to the economy when agents form expectations using our learning approach compared to expectations formed under the assumption of strong rationality. Furthermore, we find some variation in expansionary fiscal policy in periods of downturns compared to boom periods.     

A dynamic model of expectations equilibrium

This paper describes a dynamic information adjustment process which achieves (rational) expectations equilibria for stochastic exchange environments. An informational temporary equilibrium is an exchange equilibrium in which agents' expectations are conditioned on their initial information and market data generated in previous informational temporary equilibria. An equilibrium is a temporary equilibrium which reveals no further information. This process leads to an equilibrium even when the data observed by agents is insufficient to permit the existence of an expectations equilibrium.     

Monetary transmission mechanism in Turkey under free float using a small-scale macroeconomic model

This study analyzes the monetary transmission mechanism in the Turkish economy following the switch to free float under informal inflation targeting scheme in the aftermath of the February 2001 crisis. A small-scale macroeconomic model is simulated using equations for output gap, exchange rate, sub-items of inflation, short-term policy rate, government borrowing rate, “Embi+ Turkey” and inflation expectations. The preliminary results indicate that, despite some slight departures, both static and dynamic simulations capture the dynamics of the fundamental economic variables. The results also show that at a time of weak domestic demand, output gap has been seemingly less significant in determining inflation. Furthermore, risk premium as measured by “Embi+ Turkey” has a high explanatory power in shaping government borrowing rate and exchange rate. Finally, forward-looking component of inflation has been effective in determining non-administered prices.     

Inflationary expectations and monetary policy: evidence from Bangladesh

This article first estimates inflationary expectations using a Blanchard–Quah VAR model by decomposing the nominal interest rate into expected inflation and the ex ante real interest rate. Then I utilize this expected inflation along with other macroeconomic variables as inputs to the monetary policy function in a recursive VAR model to identify exogenous policy shocks. To calculate inflationary expectations, I assume that ex ante real interest rate shocks do not have a long-run effect on the nominal interest rate. This article finds that the public expects lower inflation for the future during periods of high inflation. Estimated results from the recursive VAR suggest that a contractionary policy shock increases the real interest rate, appreciates domestic currency, and lowers inflationary expectations and industrial output. However, I find a lagged policy response from Bangladesh Bank to higher inflationary expectations.     

The curse of low expectations

We examine how a remedial education programme for primary school‐age children affects parental expectations about their children's future. Using original survey data we collected in Serbia, we investigate whether expectations on labour market prospects and educational attainment change as a consequence of exposure to the Roma Teaching Assistant programme. Our results show that parents of pupils in treated schools expect higher returns to education for their children and are more likely to expect them to achieve a secondary level of education. We also investigate the possible mechanisms in place due to the characteristics of the programme: remedial education and role model.     

Examination performance in Scottish secondary schools: an ordered logit approach

This paper analyses the determinants of educational outcomes for Scottish secondary schools. Using an ordered logit model with data on school examination performance for pupils in the last year of compulsory education, separate equations are estimated for 1993–1994 and 1998–1999. The empirical results, in line with previous British studies, underline the importance of family, peer group and school influences in determining educational outcomes. They cast doubt, however, on suggestions that there is an ‘optimal’ size of school.     

Econometric policy evaluation and expectations

Recently large-scale econometric models have been criticized as inappropriate tools for policy evaluation. One critical point often mentioned is the way expectations are formed. This paper shows that the way the process of expectations formation is considered does not play a crucial role. Instead, the ability to model agents' reactions to changes in policy is the essence of the critique. As long as government behaviour is sufficiently accessible in the model, applied econometrics may still use large-scale systems for which rational expectations solutions would be troublesome if not impossible to reach.     

产业对接背景下校企共同培养人才的耦合管理模式

产业对接背景下学校与企业共同培养人才的耦合管理模式具有企业化、时效化、系统化、精细化等特点,必须从专业及课程的设置标准、授课方式、师资培养、考核指标、教育资源、学生培养质量和管理、＂实境耦合＂特色教学等方面进行管理,才能真正实现学校的生存、企业的发展。     

Feles: The functionalized extended linear expenditure system: Theory,estimation procedures and application to individual household consumption expenditures involving socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics

This article introduces the Functionalized Extended Linear Expenditure System, FELES, a new extension on Lluch's familiar Extended Linear Expenditure System. Household individual expenditures with respect to ‘subsistence expenditures’ and ‘partial marginal propensities to consume’ are made explicitly dependent on socioeconomic and sociodemographic characteristics in a system-wide approach. A restricted maximum likelihood estimator for relatively small systems with few explanatory variables and an iterative estimation procedure for larger systems with an extensive set of explanatory variables are proposed. The complete FELES then is applied to cross-sectional data with more than 47,000 German households. Stone's LES and Lluch's ELES are first quantified too on a German data base of this extent.     

On dynamic stability in monetary models which incorporate short- and long-run expectations of inflation in the demand for the money function

The demand for money function should depend on the long-run rate of inflation. A model of macroeconomic fluctuations based on short-run unanticipated inflation is used, together with adaptive expectations to develop conditions for price stability. It is shown that Cagan's conditions are neither necessary nor efficient.     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

Dividend taxes,corporate investment,and ‘Q’

Taxes on corporate distributions have traditionally been regarded as a ‘double tax’ on corporate income. This view implies that while the total effective tax rate on corporate source income affects real economic decisions, the distribution of this tax burden between the shareholders and the corporation is irrelevant. Recent research has suggested an alternative to this traditional view. One explanation of why firms in the United States pay dividends in spite of the heavy tax liabilities associated with this form of distribution is that the stock market capitalizes the tax payments associated with corporate distributions. This capitalization leaves investors indifferent at the margin between a corporation's decision to pay out dividends or to retain earnings. This alternative view holds that while changes in the dividend tax rate will affect shareholder wealth, they will have no impact on corporate investment decisions.This paper develops econometric tests which distinguish between these two views of dividend taxation. By extending Tobin's ‘q’ theory of investment to incorporate taxes at both the corporate and personal levels, the implications of each view for corporate investment decisions can be derived. The competing views may be tested by comparing the performance of investment equations estimated under each theory's predictions. British time series data are particularly appropriate for testing hypotheses about dividend taxes because of the substantial postwar variation in effective tax rates on corporate distributions. The econometric results suggest that dividend taxes have important effects on investment decisions.     

Heterogeneous inflationary expectations,Fisher's theory of interest and the allocative efficiency of the bond market

This letter considers the consequences of heterogeneous inflationary expectations for Fisher's theory of interest. It is further shown that divergent and erroneous expectations cause welfare losses which increase when either the variance of expectations or of actualinflation increase.