Multiple time series analysis of simultaneous equations model specification

This paper presents an extension of the Zellner-Palm methodology using the multiple time series representation of an underlying structural econometric model. The multiple time series approach avoids the problem of cancellation of common factors that has made it difficult to infer structural model characteristics from univariate time series models. In addition the correspondence between the structural model and the multiple time series model provides structural content to the tests for Granger-causality. The approach is illustrated with applications to small macroeconomic models of Friedman and Sargent and Wallace.     

A simultaneous equations model of finance and growth: FIML estimates for India

In the relationship between economic growth and financial development, it is generally conceded that both variables are likely to be interdependent. However, no attempt has been made so far to estimate a simultaneous equations model to test whether finance causes growth or vice versa. This article uses the Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) method to estimate a two equations model of growth and finance for India to determine the strength of this interdependence. Our results show that Financial Developments (FD) have a small but significant permanent growth effect. However, there is no evidence to support the view that ‘where enterprise leads, finance follows’.     

Female earnings and the divorce rate: a simultaneous equations model

Economists have contributed a great deal of research, both theoretical and empirical, to the study of marital formation and dissolution. Many empirical examinations of marriage and divorce rates exist based on Becker's seminal contributions to the literature. All of these divorce studies are single equation models, with female earnings assumed exogenous. As discussed by Becker (1981), however, causality may run in the opposite direction as well: the divorce rate may influence female earnings. This paper estimates a simultaneous equations model in which divorce rates and female earnings are the jointly endogenous variables. Data are by state, for 1960, 1970, 1980 and 1990. The state-wide divorce rate equation is an extension of Waters and Ressler (1999), and the specification of a state-wide earnings equation follows standard human capital theory. The specification of joint endogeneity between female earnings and the divorce rate allows valid inferences to be made regarding the effect of female earnings on divorce for the first time. Most previous single equation studies of divorce have found that increases in female earnings significantly increase divorce rates. A simultaneous equations model will allow inferences to be made regarding the possibility of joint determination, which may cause a reevaluation of previous results.     

A simultaneous equations study of research and development intensity

This paper presents a simultaneous equations model of profitability, concentration, advertising, and research and development outlays. We find that research and development intensity tends to increase in more concentrated industries, although this effect is negated in industries where technological opportunities are excellent. Also, high levels of research and development may reduce concentration while tending to add to industry profitability. These results suggest that the government should not be concerned with the possibility of an adverse impact of market concentration on research and development, although the evidence suggests that certain high technology industries may be at a small risk.     

A simultaneous equations model of internal migration with dynamic policy simulations and forecasting: Italy, 1952-1976

The purpose of this study is to determine, with a dynamic simultaneous equations model, the relative importance of the most significant socioeconomic forces leading to the large-scale labor migration from the South to the North of Italy from 1952 to 1976, and to analyze its implications for the past and prospective development of the South. The model is estimated by Full Information Maximum Likelihood, validated by dynamic simulation, stressing dynamic policy simulations, and also presenting the results of some forecasting.     

代际收入流动性与收入不平等——基于面板数据联立方程模型的分析

利用CHNS数据,在测度收入不平等的代际传递性的基础上,通过面板数据联立方程模型实证分析代际收入流动与收入不平等之间的关系。实证研究结果表明,收入不平等程度的上升阻碍了代际收入的流动,而代际收入弹性的提高也会导致收入不平等状况的恶化。     

A simultaneous disequilibrium model for Italian export goods

An econometric methodology is proposed for simultaneously estimating a disequilibrium macroeconomic model which takes into account the interactions occurring between variables or equations when aggregate quantities come from markets which do not clear. A specification of disequilibrium is considered which is substantially a simultaneous version of the well known partial adjustment model, instead of taking into account the conventional “short-side” rule. A simple model for italian manufactured export goods is estimated with limited and full information techniques subject to cross equation restrictions which permit the identification of the structural parameters of the model. By investigating the extent to which these restrictions are supported by evidence, this approach is shown to be useful for the comprehension of how the italian export market for manufactured goods operates. Tests on equilibrium versus disequilibrium hypothesis seem to support such a specification for macro-disequilibrium.     

Earnings differentials and occupational segregation by gender: A simultaneous equations approach

Models of male/female earnings differentials which include explanatory variables such as occupational distribution and participation rates are criticized for failing to account for the simultaneity of the relationships involved. An alternative, eight-equation model of earnings differentials, participation differentials and occupational segregation is developed. Application of the model to Australian census data is discussed.     

On adding over-identifying instrumental variables to simultaneous equations

Reducing the number of over-identifying instruments, or adding them to a structural equation, increases estimation dispersion. Added instruments should be insignificant under correct specification, with parameter estimates nearly unaffected, confirmed by Monte Carlo. Selecting instruments does not affect these results.     

A model of the political process with party loyalty

This paper examines a model where voters consider the parties they can vote for as being differentiated objects of choice. It is shown that this simple modification of the standard ‘median voter model’ can have important implications as regards the outcome of the political process. In particular, policies may be adopted which favour a minority at the expense of the majority. This result complements those found in the theory of regulation.     

团队研讨教学模式在管理类课程中的运用

团队研讨教学模式是融团队管理理念、现代教育思想于教学实践过程,以教师为主导、以学生为本位,注重能力开发、素质培养的一种互动启发、探究式教学模式.该教学模式在教学实践中有助于激发学生学习热情,培养学习兴趣,有效培养团队合作意识、精神,提升科研能力、开拓视野、丰富知识,使学生在合作与竞争中不断激发创新精神,提高创新能力.     

团队研讨教学模式在管理类课程中的运用

团队研讨教学模式是融团队管理理念、现代教育思想于教学实践过程,以教师为主导、以学生为本位,注重能力开发、素质培养的一种互动启发、探究式教学模式。该教学模式在教学实践中有助于激发学生学习热情,培养学习兴趣,有效培养团队合作意识、精神,提升科研能力、开拓视野、丰富知识,使学生在合作与竞争中不断激发创新精神,提高创新能力。     

Basic needs fulfillment and economic growth: A simultaneous model

The relationship between basic needs fulfillment and productivity change is examined using a growth model which is explicitly simultaneous in national output and generalized measures of health, nutrition, and education. Consistent and relatively efficient parameter estimates are obtained through the application of three-stage least squares, using data from a large sample of poor countries in Africa, Asia, and Southern America. The results give support to the hypothesis that changes in basic welfare are strong contributors to labor productivity change, and conversely. In addition, they suggest substantial differences in the pattern of simultaneous interaction at different income and welfare levels.     

Structure,conduct and performance: a simultaneous equations approach

A simultaneous equations framework is used to study the relationship between structure, conduct and performance in US manufacturing in the 1980s and 1990s. The paper expands on earlier structure-conduct-performance studies by using a lag structure to signify that structure, conduct and performance do not affect one another contemporaneously. Findings support some aspects of the traditional structure-conduct-performance model, but challenge others. First, the data suggest that industry structure does not depend on current industry performance. Second, little evidence is found that industry conduct, proxied by advertising, is affected by industry structure. Third, results show that industry performance does not depend on industry conduct, though it is sensitive to industry structure. The main findings are that (1) concentration does not depend on firm profitability, though profitability depends on concentration, (2) advertising follows a process that is independent of the factors considered here, and (3) advertising seems to have no effect on profitability.     

The causes and consequences of occupational segregation: a simultaneous equations approach

Lewis and Shorten (Applied Economics, 1991, 23, 167–77) have proposed that male and female earnings, male and female labour force participation rates and occupational segregation are simultaneously determined in the labour market. They estimate their model for Australia using 1981 Census data and find substantial evidence to support their hypothesis. However, there have been no subsequent studies to empirically test their hypothesis for other countries. In this paper their model for the United States using 1990 Census data is replicated. All but one of the coefficients on the endogenous variables have the same signs as those reported by Lewis and Shorten, which tends to support their model. The specification of Lewis and Shorten's model is tested and it is inappropriate for the US data. The model is then reformulated and re-estimated. The reformulated model also shows substantial evidence of simultaneity between occupational segregation and other labour market outcomes.     

A model of multiple-unit ownership as a diffusion process

This paper develops and tests a new model for multiple-unit adoptions of durable goods based on the diffusion modeling tradition. Multiple-unit adoptions are a major component of sales for many consumer durable product categories. For instance, sales of multiple-unit adoptions for televisions have been higher than both first adoptions and replacement purchases since 1977, while for automobiles, they have represented more than 20% of sales since 1966 in Australia. The structural drivers of multiple-unit adoptions are quite different from either first purchase or replacement purchase. Hence, identifying and modeling the multiple-unit component of sales is important for aggregate sales forecasts. Moreover, consumer requirements for additional units of a product are likely to be considerably different than for the other components of sales (first purchases and replacement purchases). As such, the ratio of the first, multiple, and replacement sales components will strongly influence the product mix requirements of the market.

While forecasting and influencing multiple-unit sales are an important managerial issue, very little attention has been given to multiple-unit ownership in the diffusion modeling literature. The only model available was developed for the purpose of modeling relatively short-term behavior of multiple-unit adoptions, rather than the longer-term pattern of sales. We propose a model of multiple-unit adoptions as a diffusion process.

We apply the model to both color television and automobiles. Analysis of the model's long-term fit and forecasts in these applications provide support for the structure of the new model.     

A system of equations model of UK tourism demand in neighbouring countries

This paper uses a system of equations model to examine tourism demand during periods of destination country transition and integration into the wider international community. The Almost Ideal Demand System model is applied to the UK demand for tourism in the neighbouring destinations, France, Spain and Portugal. Spain and Portugal are interesting cases as, during the period under consideration, they experienced a process of transition from economies with characteristics typical of developing countries, only entering the World Bank's industrialized countries classification in the 1980s. The paper examines the evolution of tourism demand during these countries' transition from ‘developing’ to ‘developed’ status. Consideration of France as a neighbouring destination also allows the behaviour of tourism demand to be compared between relatively rich and poor countries. The results show the extent to which the cross-country behaviour of demand becomes more or less similar over time with respect to changes in expenditure and effective prices. The expenditure elasticities are greater for Spain than France during the initial period, indicating that tourism can assist countries to ‘catch-up’ with their richer neighbours. However, this outcome is not always the case and may not persist, as Portugal had a low initial expenditure elasticity and Spain's relatively high expenditure elasticity decreased over time. Destinations' sensitivity to changes in their own and competitors' prices can also change over time, as indicated by the increases in the own- and cross-price elasticities for Spain, compared with the decreases for France and Portugal. The cross-price elasticity estimates indicate substitutability between the immediate neighbours, Portugal and Spain, and France and Spain.     

A simultaneous discrete choice model of labor supply and wages for married women in Switzerland

A simultaneous model of female labor supply and wages is estimated. The labor supply model is formulated as a trichotomous discrete choice model in order to take into account the bimodal distribution of observed working hours. For women without observed wages the probability of choosing the observed work category is integrated over all values of the wage. The model is estimated using a sample of married women in Switzerland. The budget constraint is constructed by computing the disposable income for each hours point, taking into account the Swiss income tax system. The estimation results imply relatively modest wage elasticities of expected labor supply for working women. On the other hand the elasticity of the participation probability with respect to wages for nonworkers is twice as large. The magnitude of the income elasticities is comparable to other studies. The wage elasticities obtained with two alternative estimation procedures are considerably lower. These results show that wage elasticities crucially depend on how the problem of unobserved wages is solved.