The Information Signaling Hypothesis of Dividends: Evidence from Cointegration and Causality Tests

This paper uses cointegration and causality tests to study the temporal behavior of dividends and earnings at the individual firm level. We find that, for a sample of 143 non‐utility firms, approximately one‐fifth of the firms exhibits a temporal relationship between dividends and earnings that is consistent with the information signaling hypothesis of dividends. In the case of 72 utilities, about a third exhibit dividend policies that are consistent with the signaling notion of dividends. Further examination of firm characteristic differences between signaling and non‐signaling firms shows that, in the case of non‐utility firms, signaling firms tend to be smaller, have a lower growth rate of total assets, and have a higher leverage ratio. In the case of utilities, we find no major differences in firm characteristics between signaling and non‐signaling firms.     

The Differences Between Stock Splits and Stock Dividends: Evidence on the Retained Earnings Hypothesis

Abstract:  This paper investigates stock dividends and stock splits on the Copenhagen Stock Exchange (CSE), which is of interest because several of the more recent explanations for a stock market reaction can be ruled out. The main findings are that the announcement effect of stock dividends as well as stock splits is closely related to changes in a firm's payout policy, but that the relationship differs for the two types of events. A stock dividend implies an increase in nominal share capital and hence a decrease in retained earnings. Firms announcing stock dividends finance growth entirely by debt (explaining the need for an increase in nominal share capital) and retained earnings. Basically all firms announcing a stock dividend with a split factor of less than two can also afford to increase their total cash dividends permanently, at least proportionally to the increase in share capital, leading to a significant announcement effect of 4.23%. Firms announcing a stock dividend with a split factor of two or more also increase total cash dividends permanently, but less than proportionally to the increase in share capital. This leads to an insignificant announcement effect of 0.08%. These findings support a retained earnings/signaling hypothesis. For stock splits, no separate announcement effect was found when a firm's payout policy was controlled for. This lends support to the idea that a stock split per se is a cosmetic event on the CSE and is also consistent with the fact that making a stock split on the CSE is virtually cost free.     

Scrip Dividends: the Management's View

This paper examines the motivation underlying the payment of scrip dividends through a questionnaire survey conducted among a sample of companies listed on the London Stock Exchange that offered their shareholders this option, and a control sample of firms that paid only cash dividends. The results show that the overwhelming majority of the respondents from both groups feel that the scrip dividend option is driven by the current and/or potential high irrecoverable advanced corporation tax but the proposition that this option is a substitute for external finance or a cut in cash dividends is strongly rejected. Managers feel that, although the scrip dividend option allows small shareholders to increase their holdings without incurring transaction costs, it is not intended to convey information that will lead to a rise in the share price. Furthermore, the results reveal that the decision between offering this option or paying only cash dividends is substantially affected by shareholders' pressure, suggesting that firms in the UK are subject to direct shareholder monitoring.     

Tax Costs and Signalling Benefits: The Impact of Surplus ACT

Companies with surplus ACT are faced with additional tax costs if they use dividends to signal information to investors, hence there is a trade-off between tax costs and signalling benefits. This paper provides evidence that investors' reactions to dividend surprises are influenced by the signal generated by earnings and tax planning considerations. The results indicate that in the presence of a positive earnings signal and a binding tax constraint, decreases in dividends are value enhancing.     

Company Tax Structure and Company Tax Incidence

This paper reviews conflicting theories of company tax incidence impliedby the alternative new and traditional views of dividends andexamines their contrasting policy implications. Whereas, under thetraditional view, closer integration of the corporate and personalincome tax systems is suggested, an alternative policy orientationemphasizing the non-distorting features of the classical system is impliedby the new view. Even if the traditional view is accepted, theimplications for design and reform of the company tax vary widely underalternative specifications of domestic and international tax policy objectives. Schedular alternatives to global income taxation are alsoconsidered.     

Corporate Financing Decisions and Non-Debt Tax Shields: Evidence from Italian Experiences in the 1990s

Between 1995 and 1999, Italy experienced three episodes of fiscal reform during which different categories of non-debt tax shields were introduced, including a classical investment tax credit, a system of dual income taxation, and an investment tax credit restricted to equity financed investments. Using the balance sheets of a large sample of Italian companies, we construct a data set which allows us to evaluate the impact of the different fiscal interventions. We apply MacKie-Mason's (1990) method to study incremental financing decisions using discrete choice analysis. The analysis shows that the measures introduced were successful in reducing the advantage of debt financing relative to equity financing. We relate the findings to the current literature on the determinants of capital structure. JEL Code: G32, H25     

个人境外所得的税收抵免规则与案例解析

个人所得税改为综合与分类相结合的税制后,居民个人取得境外所得申报及税收抵免的重要性逐渐体现。《财政部国家税务总局关于境外所得有关个人所得税政策问题的公告》(财政部税务总局公告2020年第3号,以下简称《公告》)的发布进一步完善了个人境外所得来源地判定、境外所得抵免及征管等规则,对居民个人所得税年度汇算将产生较大影响。本文对完善所得来源地确定规则等《公告》带来的政策变化进行了梳理,结合案例对《公告》的内容进行了解析,并从注意政策新旧变化、对"追溯抵免"概念和内涵的理解等方面提出了适用政策需重点关注的若干问题。     

Stock Dividend Announcement Effects in an Imputation Tax Environment

A key question in asset pricing is the extent to which tax effects are passed through market prices or are capitalised in them. New Zealand stock dividends provide a useful window into this debate because of (1) the existence of both taxable and non-taxable stock dividends, and (2) the particular form of imputation tax system which allows the full pass through of corporate taxes to the investor on the proportion of profits which are distributed either as cash or taxable stock dividends. We present evidence that investors value future tax benefits associated with imputation tax credits.     

Dividend imputation taxes and the curious case of a price premium between BHP and Billiton American depositary receipts

BHP Group was formed in 2001 when the Broken Hill Proprietary Company Limited in Australia merged with the Anglo–Dutch Billiton Plc in the UK to form a dual−listed company. The American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) for BHP and Billiton trade on the NYSE, and despite these two securities having exactly the same voting rights and US dollar denominated dividends, the BHP ADR generally sells at a premium to the Billiton ADR, though that premium has considerable time−series variation. We investigate whether differences in the imputation tax systems that apply to dividends in Australia and the UK help explain the time series variation in the premium of the ADR prices. Our results confirm that imputation tax differences are a significant determinant of the premium. Our paper hence provides direct evidence that imputation tax credits are capitalised into equity prices.     

The Market Response to Beating After‐tax Earnings Targets Revisited using Analysts’ Pre‐tax Earnings Forecasts and Concurrent Tax Note Disclosures

We investigate whether the premium for achieving after‐tax earnings targets is informed by the availability of pre‐tax and after‐tax earnings forecasts. We find evidence the premium is discounted for firms achieving only after‐tax earnings forecasts compared with firms achieving both forecast targets. This is likely due to the uncertainty about future profitability and earnings quality created by failing to attain pre‐tax earnings targets. For firms achieving only pre‐tax earnings forecasts, no premium is documented. Taken together, our results indicate that while pre‐tax earnings forecasts may not move the market, they have an informational role in providing a context for assessing the achievement of after‐tax earnings targets. We also consider the usefulness of the tax note disclosures of deferred tax assets from carry‐forward losses for assessing the premium for achieving after‐tax earnings targets. Reflecting the duality of this tax deferral, we find evidence that recognition of these tax assets conveys information about lower earnings quality when recognition is likely to be opportunistic (in the case of firms achieving only after‐tax forecasts), and provides a signal of future profitability (in the case of firms achieving only pre‐tax forecasts).     

The Impact of Dividends, Debt and Investment on Valuation Models

The reliability of a basic earnings and equity model of value is tested using 8,287 cases drawn from UK industrial and commercial firms reporting during 1987–1995. A respecification of this model is used to investigate the value relevance of dividends, capital structure and capital expenditure. Both the dividend and capital expenditure signals appear to be significant and the impact of the former is surprisingly strong. There is no convincing evidence that equity value is affected by the level of debt. Further investigation of dividends confirms that they are less influential in large firms or in firms with high return on equity.     

Payout Policy Tax Clienteles,Ex‐dividend Day Stock Prices and Trading Behavior in Germany: The Case of the 2001 Tax Reform

This paper examines the impact of the German 2001 tax reform, where Germany switched from a full imputation system to a classical system. Theory suggests that both price drop ratios and trading volume decrease following the reform. We document a significant reduction in the valuation of net dividends–in particular for high dividend yield stocks–and weakening payout policy tax clienteles. Ex‐dividend day returns are likely to be driven by short‐term traders. Though the reform removed incentives for cross‐border dividend stripping and reduced tax heterogeneity among investors, we show that the high trading volume around ex‐dividend days persists.     

Corporate Ownership Structure and the Informativeness of Earnings

This study extends prior studies by examining how managerial ownership and external unrelated blockholdings affect the informativeness of earnings. The results are in contrast to prior studies. A non–linear relation exists between managerial ownership and earnings informativeness. Earnings informativeness increases with managerial ownership at low levels but not at higher levels of managerial ownership where the entrenchment effect sets in. Consistent with the role of large shareholder monitoring, the evidence shows a strong positive relationship between external unrelated blockholdings and earnings informativeness. These results are supported when income–increasing and absolute discretionary accruals are used to measure the extent of earnings management     

Dividends and Market Signalling: an Analysis of Corporate Insider Trading

This study tests the multiple‐signal theory of dividends of John and Lang (1991) in the context of a European market. Our evidence shows that investors are more sensitive to insider trading signals than to signalled changes in existing dividends. In effect, the insider sales signal is universally understood as bad news. After controlling for the quality of a firm's investment opportunities, investors are found to penalise dividend outflows by mature firms that exhibit more informed insider sales activity. Finally, we offer an innovative exploration of the role of earnings announcements in market reaction to the dividend signal.     

The Garman-Ohlson Structural System

The Garman-Ohlson structural model assumes the evolution of corporate earnings, dividends and book values are generated by a simultaneous equation system which links financial statement information to underlying equity value. However, little is known about the consistency of empirical outcomes with the model's underlying analytical properties. A continuous time interpretation of the model implies that solutions fall into one of three categories: (i) all eigenvalues of the structural model are real and distinct; (ii) some eigenvalues may be complex, and (iii) there are repeated eigenvalues. Maximum likelihood techniques can be used to estimate structural models and likelihood ratio tests can then be used to assess the validity of alternative specifications. We demonstrate both likelihood procedures by applying them to a sample of 214 UK companies covering the twenty one year period ending in 1994.     

Anticipating Tax Changes: Evidence from the Finnish Corporate Income Tax Reform of 2005*

Using register‐based panel data covering all Finnish firms from 1999 to 2004, we examine how corporations anticipated the 2005 dividend tax increase via changes in their dividend and investment policies. The Finnish capital and corporate income tax reform of 2005 creates a useful opportunity to measure this behaviour, since it involves exogenous variation in the tax treatment of different types of firms. The estimation results reveal that those firms that anticipated a dividend tax hike increased their dividend payouts in a statistically significant way. This increase was not accompanied by a reduction in investment activities, but rather was associated with increased indebtedness in non‐listed firms. The results also suggest that the timing of dividend distributions probably offsets much of the potential for increased dividend tax revenue following the reform.     

Ex Ante Incentives for Earnings Management and the Informativeness of Earnings

This study examines the relation between ex ante incentives of insurance managers to engage in earnings management to meet regulatory standards and the informativeness of earnings. This study extends prior research by simultaneously examining the effects of earnings management and uncertainty about earnings as suggested by Collins and DeAngelo (1990) and Imhoff and Lobo (1992). Results from a sample of 375 quarterly earnings announcements of 41 property and liability insurers during the period 1989 to 1992 support the hypothesis that when managers' incentives for earnings management are high, earnings announcements are less informative to investors (even after controlling for uncertainty associated with exposure to large-scale catastrophes). Robustness tests suggest that our results are not attributable to firm size, time period effects, firm effects, accounting estimation error, or financial distress risk. These results are consistent with investors using publicly available information to predict P-L insurance managers' ex ante incentives to manage earnings to meet regulatory standards, and that they use this information in forming their beliefs about earnings quality.     

The Association Between Operating Cash Flows and Dividend Changes: An Empirical Investigation

The Association between earnings and dividend changes has been established since Lintner's (1956) pioneering work. Subsequent research attempted to establish an association between operating cash flows and dividend changes, given earnings, without success (Simons, 1994). Recently, there has been increased attention in cash flow reporting. Regulatory bodies worldwide have stressed the significance of cash flow information in capital markets. Research on the association between cash flows and dividends has been limited, yielding inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate and extend prior studies by examining the incremental ability of cash flows to explain dividend changes, given earnings. We argue that a positive relationship between cash flows and dividend changes should exist due to liquidity and accruals management considerations. The empirical evidence of this study supports that the dividend changes-cash flow relationship is significantly positive (a) when operating cash flows are low compared to earnings, and (b) when firm growth is moderate.