Economic Relations Among Earnings Quality Measures

Empirical studies on earnings quality use various measures that capture particular dimensions of earnings quality. This paper provides a theoretical foundation to evaluate and compare several common earnings quality measures: value relevance; persistence; predictability; smoothness; and discretionary accruals. We use a rational expectations framework in which a manager has market price, earnings, and smoothing incentives and can bias earnings reports. Taking the information content of reported earnings as a natural benchmark, we determine how variations of management incentives, operating risk, and accounting noise affect earnings quality and examine whether the different measures point in the same or in the opposite direction. We find that value relevance and persistence are measures that are closely aligned with each other and with our benchmark, followed by predictability and smoothness. Discretionary accruals measures are less aligned because they are based on the level of accruals, which confounds their information content. Our results also support the notion that smoother earnings and higher discretionary accruals are associated with greater earnings quality.     

Earnings Quality Effect on Corporate Excess Cash Holdings and Their Marginal Value

By using panel data from Korea’s listed firms, we find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to accumulate excess cash holdings, perhaps in an attempt to buffer themselves from information asymmetry problems. We also find that firms with poor earnings quality are more likely to discount the marginal value of their excess cash holdings because their shareholders appear to question the reason for such cash policy changes from the agency theory perspective. Overall, our results suggest that information asymmetry and agency problems are likely to co-exist in firms with poor earnings quality.     

Supplier Financing and Earnings Quality

In this paper we investigate the effect of earnings quality on supplier credit in a sample of small and medium‐sized firms. After controlling for other determinants of trade credit, we show that firms whose earnings present lower variability, higher smoothing and predictability, and higher accruals quality have access to more trade credit from suppliers. This association suggests that earnings attributes associated to lower volatility and higher precision with respect to cash flows facilitate access to trade credit.     

Relative Excess Returns

Building on a no-arbitrage relationship suggested by Clare, Thomas and Wickens (1994) between the returns on equity, bonds and treasury bills, this paper develops what is termed a 'relative excess returns' approach to the understanding of movements in equity prices. This no-arbitrage relationship is used to derive an explicit measure of excess returns, which incorporates both the excess returns to equity and bonds while netting out any unprofitable (i.e. market efficient) return predictability caused by time variation in the treasury bill rate. This measure can be related to a series of observable variables in a consistent manner and used to construct a trading rule aimed at forecasting excess returns. In a series of empirical experiments, this trading rule appears to be more 'profitable' than both the rule suggested by Clare et al. (1994) and the gilt-equity yield ratio rule (used by many UK analysts to guide investment decisions), and outperforms the strategy of 'buy and hold equity'. More generally, the analysis provides support for the existence of predictable excess returns — returns which cannot be attributed to time-varying excess returns — and for the inefficient market explanation of predictable returns.     

Income Smoothing, Earnings Quality and Firm Valuation

Abstract:   This study argues that lower variability of earnings does not guarantee income smoothers' higher firm values. Instead, smoothers' earnings should be more value‐relevant if they are of high quality, i.e., earnings quality should be considered simultaneously. Sample firms are divided into four groups: quality earnings smoothers, quality earnings non‐smoothers, non‐quality earnings smoothers, and non‐quality earnings non‐smoothers. Value relevance of reported earnings is then studied using both the levels and the changes approaches with indicator variables. Results show quality earnings smoothers have the highest price‐earnings multiple while non‐quality non‐smoothers have the lowest price‐earnings multiple.     

Accruals Management to Achieve Earnings Benchmarks: A Comparison of Pre-managed Profit and Loss Firms

Abstract:  This study examines whether firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to meet or exceed earnings benchmarks when pre-managed earnings are below those benchmarks. We extend Brown (2001) by documenting that the differential propensity to achieve earnings benchmarks by profitable and nonprofitable firms results from differential accruals management behavior. We find that firms with profits before accruals management are more likely than firms with losses before accruals management to have pre-managed earnings below both analysts' forecasts and prior period earnings and reported earnings above these benchmarks.     

Earnings Forecasts and the Information Contained in Spinoff Announcements

This study examines spinoff announcements in conjunction with financial analysts’ forecasts of earnings. The analysis shows that spinoff announcement abnormal returns are significantly related to the firm's information environment as proxieci by financial analysts’ earnings prediction errors. The findings also indicate that analysts significantly increase their short-term earnings forecasts in response to spinoffs, but do not significantly revise their long-term earnings forecasts. However, the earnings revisions are not significantly different across prediction error groups, which confirms that spinoff-related abnormal returns cannot be attributed solely to expected performance gains.     

业绩预告披露与盈余管理研究

盈余管理存在的根本原因在于投资者与管理层之间的信息不对称。业绩预告作为上市公司未来经营成果、财务状况与现金流量的预测,在很大程度上会影响投资者对上市公司的评估及其投资决策。从业绩预告披露的特征方面出发,研究业绩预告披露与盈余管理之间的关系,包括业绩预告的性质、预告精确度、预告误差分别与盈余管理程度的关系,结果发现：发布业绩预告的公司,盈余管理水平更高。预告精确度以及预告期间与预测当期盈余管理水平正相关,预测误差与盈余管理水平负相关。当消息类型不同的时候,预测的强制性与否以及＂变脸＂对盈余管理水平的影响不同。结论支持了上市公司财务报告迎合业绩预告披露的说法。     

Earnings quality,bankruptcy risk and future cash flows

Prior research suggests that the quality of accruals may be compromised where the magnitude of accruals is abnormally high, due to the presence of errors in the accruals‐estimation process (Dechow and Dichev, 2002; Richardson, 2003). A consequence of this is that abnormal accruals may not map into realised future cash flows to the extent that would normally be expected of accruals data. Indeed, the association may be insignificant if abnormal accruals consist primarily of estimation noise. Our study investigates whether abnormal accruals for UK firms provide incremental insight into future cash flows. In particular, our paper may be viewed as a development of Subramanyam (1996). We find a significant positive association between abnormal accruals and one‐year‐ahead operating cash flows. This provides a rationale for the pricing of abnormal accruals by the market (Subramanyam, 1996; Xie, 2001) and suggests that abnormal accruals are not merely the products of noise in the accruals‐estimation process. However, our results are conditional upon the probability of one‐year‐ahead bankruptcy risk (Charitou et al., 2004). We also find that abnormal accruals possess small but significant explanatory power for future cash flows even when controlling for the disaggregation of accruals into individual items (Barth et al., 2001).     

The Effect of Earnings Management on the Value Relevance of Accounting Information

This study investigates whether opportunistic earnings management affects the value relevance of net income and book value in determining stock price. We document a decrease in the value relevance of earnings in the year of an equity offering for a group of firms with ex post evidence of earnings management. This decrease is greater for the discretionary component of earnings than for the non‐discretionary component. These results are robust to model specification and the type of offering. However, the results are sensitive to firms' disclosure activity prior to the offering.     

Permanent and Transitory Earnings,Accounting Recording Lag,and the Earnings Coefficient

In this paper, (1) wedefine precisely the terms permanent and transitory earnings;(2) we delineate the effects of the degree of permanence andof accounting recording lag on estimates of the slope coefficientfrom a returns-earnings regression and (3) we examine the relationbetween the estimates of the earnings coefficient and observablevariables that may indicate (i) the extent to which earningsare more or less permanent, and (ii) the extent to which valuerelevant events are recorded in accounting earnings in a timelyfashion. Our main point is that attributing differences in thereturns-earnings relation to one of these effects without controllingfor the other may lead to erroneous conclusions.     

Sustained Earnings and Revenue Growth,Earnings Quality,and Earnings Response Coefficients

We show that firms reporting sustained increases in both earnings and revenues have (1) higher quality earnings and (2) larger earnings response coefficients (ERCs) in comparison to firms reporting sustained increases in earnings alone. With respect to earnings quality, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have more persistent earnings, exhibit less susceptibility to earnings management, and have higher future operating performance. With respect to response coefficients, firms with revenue-supported increases in earnings have both higher ERCs and lower book value response coefficients, consistent with the implications of the Ohlson (1995, Contemporary Accounting Research 12, 661–687) model.JEL Classification: G12, M41     

Board Monitoring and Earnings Management: Do Outside Directors Influence Abnormal Accruals?

Abstract:   This paper examines whether the incidence of earnings management by UK firms depends on board monitoring. We focus on two aspects of board monitoring: the role of outside board members and the audit committee. Results indicate that the likelihood of managers making income‐increasing abnormal accruals to avoid reporting losses and earnings reductions is negatively related to the proportion of outsiders on the board. We also find that the chance of abnormal accruals being large enough to turn a loss into a profit or to ensure that profit does not decline is significantly lower for firms with a high proportion of outside board members. In contrast, we find little evidence that outside directors influence income‐decreasing abnormal accruals when pre‐managed earnings are high. We find no evidence that the presence of an audit committee directly affects the extent of income‐increasing manipulations to meet or exceed these thresholds. Neither do audit committees appear to have a direct effect on the degree of downward manipulation, when pre‐managed earnings exceed thresholds by a large margin. Our findings suggest that boards contribute towards the integrity of financial statements, as predicted by agency theory.     

Earnings Surprises,Growth Expectations,and Stock Returns or Don't Let an Earnings Torpedo Sink Your Portfolio

We provide new evidence that the inferior returns to growth stocks relative to value stocks are the result of expectational errors about future earnings performance. Our evidence demonstrates that growth stocks exhibit an asymmetric response to earnings surprises. We show that while growth stocks are at least as likely to announce negative earnings surprises as positive earnings surprises, they exhibit an asymmetrically large negative price response to negative earnings surprises. After controlling for this asymmetric price response, we find no remaining evidence of a return differential between growth and value stocks. We conclude that the inferior return to growth stocks is attributable to overoptimistic expectational errors that are corrected through subsequent negative earnings surprises.     

上市公司会计信息与股票超额收益率关系的实证研究

从上市公司年报信息出发,本文首先借助FSCORE方法建立了对上市公司会计信息的综合分析评价方法,随后以上海证券交易所A股上市公司1998年4月至2007年4月的数据进行实证研究,分析上市公司会计信息综合评价所获分数的高低与公司股票前后连续三年的超额收益率的相关关系。研究结果表明：上市公司的T年年报会计信息综合评估得分与T-1年和T＋1年公司股果的超额收益率都没有显著的相关关系,而与当年的公司股票的超额收益率呈现出显著的正相关关系,该结论对大中规模公司仍然显著。     

Abnormal Returns from Predicting Earnings Thresholds

This study examines the performance of a trading strategy based on the prediction of firms concurrently reporting a positive earnings change and meeting analysts’ earnings forecasts. The evidence indicates that a model predicting both earnings thresholds concurrently can yield excess returns that are incremental to predicting only one earnings threshold. Further, I find that the prediction of forecast errors is relatively more important than predicting earnings changes as the incremental benefit from predicting earnings changes concurrently with forecast errors is small relative to a model that predicts only forecast errors. The results hold while controlling for various risk factors and known anomalies.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

The Relevance of Analysts' Earnings Forecasts in Japan

Abstract:   This study examines the role of financial analysts in equity valuation in Japan by comparing the relevance of financial analysts' earnings forecasts, over financial statement information, to investors' decisions. We find that the value‐relevance of a set of accounting variables is very modest, but the incremental contribution of analysts' forecasts is very significant. This is in line with the expectation that the skill and expertise of analysts are more valuable in markets with poor financial disclosure, such as Japan. We also find that the importance of the financial statements increases over time while the importance of the analysts' forecasts does not change. We also provide evidence of the effect of Japanese corporate groupings, keiretsu, on the informativeness of accounting signals and earnings forecasts. The results show that the contribution of accounting variables to valuation is lower for keiretsu firms, which supports the exclusionary hypothesis that companies which are a part of keiretsu, disclose less information than do non‐keiretsu companies. The analysts' forecasts are equally important for investors in both types of firms.     

上市公司信息披露质量与证券分析师盈利预测

本文研究了上市公司信息披露状况与分析师预测行为之间的关系，结果发现，分析师的预测准确性总体上显著优于随机游走模型。进一步的研究发现，上市公司信息披露状况会对证券分析师的预测特征产生影响，信息披露透明度越高，分析师预测对会计盈利数据的依赖程度越低，预测准确性也随之提高。     

External Financing,Growth and Stock Returns

In this paper we investigate the relation of the value/growth anomaly with the anomaly on corporate financing activities. We confirm and expand earlier results that value/growth and external financing indicators are, to some degree, related predictors of stock returns in the cross section. We show that external financing indicators are incrementally informative since they pick up stock returns associated with earnings quality. Portfolios that combine information from both these indicators generate significantly higher returns than portfolios containing each individual indicator. More importantly, our analysis strongly suggests that the external financing anomaly is, to some extent, distinct from the value/growth anomaly, in that it may also reflect investors’ misunderstanding of the effects of opportunistic earnings management.