MEASURING THE EFFICIENCY OF SUB‐SAHARAN AFRICA'S MICROFINANCE INSTITUTIONS AND ITS DRIVERS

This paper uses a large panel data set covering 70 MFIs in 25 Sub‐Saharan African countries to analyze the efficiency of MFIs. This is important, given that MFIs have to operate efficiently to fulfil its dual mission of serving the poor and being sustainable. The results reveal that MFIs are inefficient in meeting the goals of either providing microfinance related services to their clients or intermediating funds between borrowers and depositors. The MFIs lack ability to reach efficient sizes of their performing loan portfolio at the same time they reach an efficient number of clients served.     

生产性制度与经济体制改革思路的重大调整

按照“交易性制度”的标准,从一些表面数据来看,我国在20世纪90年代的改革无疑是成功的。但若考虑我国深层次的经济结构,很可能得出相反的结论:这种改革不仅没有继续推进,反而在一定程度上弱化和破坏了以学习、能力提高和创新为导向的生产性制度建设,正在使我国越来越深地陷入到国际产业链的低端。如果不采取有效措施来实现经济发展模式的深刻变革,不久的将来我们将无法维系目前的发展势头。为了实现自主创新和创新型国家建设的战略目标,我们必须以生产性制度建设和创新政策为根本手段,全方位地对经济体制改革思路进行重大调整。     

TRADE REFORM, THE WTO AND CHINA's FOOD ECONOMY IN THE TWENTY-FIRST CENTURY

Abstract.  The main goal of the paper is to address the policy changes that accompany China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) and evaluate the various impacts of the agreement. To do so, we review the contours of past policies and describe the nature of the promises it has made to the WTO. We show that China's WTO commitments are very much an extension of past policies. Second, we show that most impacts will be relatively minor and in most cases the positive effects will outweigh the negative ones. Various institutions will buffer producers from suffering too much.     

STRUCTURAL CHANGE AND NONLINEARITIES IN A PHILLIPS CURVE MODEL FOR SOUTH AFRICA

The main objective of this article is to reexamine the role of the Phillips curve for monetary policy analysis in South Africa by augmenting the model for major structural changes in the balance-of-payments and labor market. The main findings show that a linear Phillips curve with an output gap in levels accurately describes South Africa's nontrended inflation experience during 1971(Q1)–1984(Q4), whereas a piecewise concave curve with an output gap in growth rates correctly predicts the decelerating inflation pattern during 1986(Q1)–2001(Q2). The concave curve after 1985 imparts a deflationary bias that requires expansionary demand-side policies to stabilise the inflation rate. An important corollary is that expansionary demand-side policies can raise the average growth rate of the output gap over time without sacrificing stabilization objectives. (JEL C22, E3, E52 )     

ANTIDUMPING,INTRA‐INDUSTRY TRADE,AND QUALITY REVERSALS

We examine an export game where two (home and foreign) firms produce vertically differentiated products. The foreign firm is more R&D efficient and is based in a larger and richer market. The unique (risk‐dominant) Nash equilibrium exhibits intra‐industry trade, and the foreign producer manufactures a higher‐quality product. When transport costs are low, unilateral dumping by the foreign firm arises; otherwise, reciprocal dumping occurs. For some parameters, a domestic antidumping policy leads to a quality reversal in the international market whereby the home firm becomes the quality leader. This policy is desirable for the implementing country, though world welfare decreases.     

THE CO‐OPERATIVE REFORM PROCESS IN TANZANIA AND SRI LANKA

ABSTRACT**: This article reports on findings from a three year study of co‐operatives in Sri Lanka and Tanzania. The article asks three questions: why do co‐operative sectors need reforming; what is the co‐operative reform process; and why has reform succeeded in some countries but not others? It provides a short history of co‐operatives in three phases: the colonial period, the post‐colonial nationalist period and the period of market liberalisation. It shows that the control exercised by colonial governments was deepened under nationalist governments, with co‐operatives becoming parastatals. Liberalisation brought a sustained attempt by international agencies to reassert the distinctive nature of co‐operatives as member‐owned businesses. However, co‐ops were ill‐prepared to adjust to a competitive market and the lifting of government regulation; many failed, some were corrupted, while a few became truly member‐controlled. The article draws on documentary analysis and key informant interviews to provide accounts of the reform process in Tanzania and Sri Lanka. It finds that the process is incomplete and often contested.     

农业多功能性与国际农产品贸易政策改革--兼论我国世贸谈判的应对策略

农业除了生产食物和纤维以外,还在经济、社会和环境等方面具有非商品功能。农业多功能性问题日益受到各国关注。全球经济一体化形势下国际农产品贸易政策改革进程中,对农业多功能问题的争辩体现了农产品进口国与出口国的利益之争。作为一个发展中农业大国,农业经营规模超小型等特点决定了我国在WTO框架下的农产品国际贸易中处于不利地位,因此我国应顺应世界农业功能多元化的潮流,在强调农业食物功能的同时,充分利用“绿箱政策”进行农业生产能力建设,积极发展功能多元化可持续农业。     

PERIODIC,COMPLETE‐PARTICIPATION TRADE IN THE LAGOS‐ROCHETEAU MODEL

This paper contributes to a recent policy discussion regarding the costs and benefits of setting up a centralized electronic trading platform to replace over‐the‐counter (OTC) markets. We modify the Lagos and Rocheteau (2009, henceforth LR) asset trading model by replacing their investor‐dealer random matching and bilateral trade with a centralized competitive market that opens periodically. This arrangement preserves the main tension and trade‐off in LR. We then analyse and quantify when to introduce a centralized market and how frequently it should open in order to make it as efficiently as the decentralized OTC market in LR.     

THE ROLE OF INSTITUTIONS IN THE REVIVAL OF TRADE: THE LAW MERCHANT, PRIVATE JUDGES, AND THE CHAMPAGNE FAIRS

A good reputation can be an effective bond for honest behavior in a community of traders if members of the community know how others have behaved in the past – even if any particular pair of traders meets only infrequently. In a large community, it would be impossibly costly for traders to be perfectly informed about each other's behavior, but there exist institutions that can restore the effectiveness of a reputation system using much less extensive information. The system of judges used to enforce commercial law before the rise of the state was such an institution, and it successfully encouraged merchants (1) to behave honestly, (2) to impose sanctions on violators, (3) to become adequately informed about how others had behaved, (4) to provide evidence against violators of the code, and (5) to pay any judgments assessed against them, even though each of these behaviors might be personally costly.     

DEBT CRISIS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, AND GROWTH: SOME POLICY CONSIDERATIONS

This paper analyzes some dynamic aspects of trade liberalization reforms within the context of the debt crisis. In particular, the paper discusses issues concerning intensity of liberalization, speed of trade reform, and the interaction between liberalization and stabilization. It deals with analytical issues and draws from the empirical experiences of some highly indebted Latin American countries.     

LACK‐OF‐RECALL AND CENTRALIZED MONETARY TRADE*

We introduce lack‐of‐recall of past transactions as an alternative assumption to anonymity in a model where trade is centralized. In environments where there is an intertemporal lack‐of‐double‐coincidence of wants problem and lack‐of‐commitment, lack‐of‐recall can give rise to monetary equilibria that dominate nonmonetary outcomes in terms of welfare.     

ÉTUDE COMPARATIVE DES PERFORMANCES DES INSTITUTIONS DE MICROFINANCE D’AFRIQUE SUB‐SAHARIENNE SELON LEUR STATUT LÉGAL

RESUME 1 : Cet article vérifie l’existence d’une différence de performance selon le statut juridique des institutions de microfinance d’Afrique Sub‐saharienne. Une analyse multi‐variée de la variance (MANOVA) permet d’étudier un échantillon de 94 IMF entre 2001 et 2005. Les résultats suggèrent que les coopératives sont plus efficientes et financièrement plus efficaces que les Organisations Non Gouvernementales (ONG) et les sociétés privées. Aucune différence significative de qualité de portefeuille selon le statut juridique n’est trouvée. Par ailleurs, nous ne trouvons pas de différence significative de rentabilité et de viabilité entre les sociétés privées et les ONG. Cependant, alors que les transactions effectuées sont plus intenses dans les coopératives, la portée (nombre d’emprunteurs actifs) semble plus importante dans les sociétés privées.     

DO GOVERNMENTS SUPPRESS GROWTH? INSTITUTIONS,RENT‐SEEKING,AND INNOVATION BLOCKING IN A MODEL OF SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH

This paper argues that some governments adopt growth-reducing policies due to the rational self-interest of the political elites. The model takes a rent-seeking government that can block innovation and incorporates it into a Schumpeterian growth model. The quality of a country's institutions is reflected in the cost of innovation blocking. An increase in the level of innovation-blocking activity will reduce the rate of innovation and therefore reduce growth. The government also faces the possibility of losing power whenever an innovation occurs. We examine the conditions under which a government will choose to block innovation and suppress growth.     

FISCAL STRUCTURAL REFORM AND ECONOMIC ACTIVITY: PUBLIC SPENDING AND PRIVATE EFFORT*

This paper explores governments' and private agents' incentives to implement or postpone fiscal structural reform attempts. Both fiscal consolidation and fiscal reorganization often create spillover effects and thereby induce free‐riding problems. It is thus important to cope with the free‐riding behaviour of interest groups. It is often argued that in order to attain successful outcomes, a good macroeconomic situation is needed, since we expect positive income effects. In this paper, we first explain the dynamic aspects of insufficient fiscal consolidation due to free‐riding problems in the framework of private provision of public goods. Then, using a static model between central and local governments, we examine the sign of income effects for reform attempts to pursue fiscal reorganization. It is shown that good economic circumstances do not necessarily enhance reform of reorganizing fiscal expenditures, although it could enhance fiscal reconstruction.     

ENDOGENOUS PROTECTION IN A TRADE LIBERALIZING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

This article aims to establish the changes that occurred in the institutional structures governing trade policy in South Africa during the period 1990–1998. It also examines the forces that influenced the application of tariff policy by the major tariff-setting bodies by applying various theories of endogenous protection to their decisions. Using firm-level data on applications made to the Board on Tariffs and Trade, the study finds that when estimating a probit model, employment considerations rather than capital invested influenced the board's decisions to grant protection. In addition, the board is found to have granted protection even in the face of tariff lines having been bound under the Uruguay Round. The article argues that this should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trade liberalization but rather as an attempt by the board to cushion firms from the acceleration in the tariff rationalization process that occurred after the GATT offer. Finally, it is suggested that the board's response to changes in import penetration ratios between industries that were considered organized provides prima facie evidence of the superior lobbying ability of such industries.     

中国省区经济差距的内生制度根源

许多人都相信我国省区经济差距与制度变迁(渐进改革)有关,但为制度内生性等问题所困,严谨的实证分析并不多见.该文尝试实证分析各省区内生的社会基础设施(由制度、政策等构成)的差异在省区经济差距中的作用.具体而言,我们找到了反映各省区历史上曾拥有的发展市场经济软环境的数据,并视其为工具变量,从而把各省区当今的社会基础设施内生,结果发现,各省区经济绩效的差异可稳健地归因于其内生的社会基础设施的差异.     

CHINA, GMOS AND WORLD TRADE IN AGRICULTURAL AND TEXTILE PRODUCTS

Abstract.  China's rapid industrialization and recent accession to the WTO makes it difficult for the country to maintain self-sufficiency in agricultural products. Genetic modification technology could ease the situation, but is not without controversy. This paper focuses on the implication of GMO controversy for China. It explores the potential economic effects of China's not adopting versus adopting GMOs when some of its trading partners adopt that technology. The effects are shown to depend to a considerable extent on the trade policy stance taken in high-income countries that are opposed to GMOs, and/or on the liberalization of China's trade in textiles and apparel.     

SEIGNIORAGE, DOMESTIC DEBT, AND FINANCIAL REFORM IN CHINA

This paper describes the institutional features of China's hybrid economy that have allowed the government to earn high levels of seigniorage. It quantifies both the financial benefits and implicit costs to the government of extracting seigniorage from the economy. The analysis, which is based on the inside/outside money model of Gurley and Shaw (1960), indicates that seigniorage earnings in the period 1987—1994 were large, but were earned at the cost of a rising implicit government debt and potential future inflation. The paper also outlines how the Chinese government's ability to earn seigniorage in the future may decline as the economy becomes fully monetized and as reform alters the economy's unique institutional structure.