Asymmetric information consolidation and price discovery: Inferring bad news from insider sales

Due to the paucity of sources of negative firm‐specific information, US capital markets have more difficulty identifying and incorporating bad news into stock prices than they do good news. Even though insider selling is a potentially important proxy for undisclosed bad news, researchers have difficulty ex ante identifying information‐based sales due to an inability to separate liquidity‐motivated from information‐based insider trades. We hypothesize that when insiders in multiple firms sell shares of one firm in which they are insiders and at the same time buy shares of other insider portfolio firms, the sale is more likely to be information‐based, since the proceeds are reinvested. Conversely, when an insider sells one firm without purchasing others or sells multiple insider firms the sale is likely liquidity‐motivated. We find that insider sales identified as information‐based using this algorithm are followed by significant negative abnormal returns. Information‐based sales are also more likely to be associated with delistings, earnings declines and earnings restatements. Analysts are also more likely to revise their earnings forecasts downwards for these firms. It is thus possible to ex ante identify insider sales with information content. Our results will be of interest to investors and also to regulators designing insider trading rules.     

Bank risk and real estate: An asset pricing perspective

While a number of papers have investigated the time-series behavior ofex post bank stock returns and real estate returns, no study has comprehensively studied the relationship betweenex ante risk premiums on both assetsand the time-varying nature of such premiums in relationship to economic and real estate market conditions. In this study, we investigate how the changing nature of bank risk taking, especially in the real estate market, has affected theex ante pricing of risk in the market for bank stocks. We find that the time variation in bank risk premiums are partly determined by interest rate and real estate market conditions. We also discover that the real estate factor has been important for banks in the 1980s.     

Tax avoidance and ex ante cost of capital

This study examines the association between tax avoidance and ex ante cost of equity capital. Based on prior research, we develop two proxies for investors’ expectations of tax avoidance and explore whether deviations from those expectations result in higher ex ante cost of equity capital. We find that the ex ante cost of equity capital increases with tax avoidance that is either below or above investor expectations and that the increase is larger for tax avoidance that exceeds investors’ expectations. We then examine whether firms that alter their future tax avoidance exhibit a lowering of their ex ante cost of equity capital and find that tax avoidance decreases (increases) from the prior year for firms that were above (below) investors’ expectations in the prior year. These results are consistent with the trade‐off suggested by the Scholes and Wolfson framework and reinforce the notion that balancing tax benefits and non‐tax costs is an important feature of firms’ tax planning.     

Performance effects of setting targets and pay–performance relations before or after operations

This study investigates both theoretically and experimentally whether and how ex post use of relative performance evaluation (RPE) information in determining performance target levels and profit sharing ratio (PSR) levels affects employer profit performance. Our findings show that employers use RPE information, i.e. peer performance, to adjust performance target levels and PSR levels to reflect economic conditions. More importantly, we find that ex post use of RPE information, i.e. peer performance, improves profit performance. However, ex post adjustment of target levels and PSR levels based on peer performance have different performance implications. Specifically, we find that ex post target contracts improve employer residual profit over ex ante target contracts, while ex post PSR contracts do not improve employer residual profit over ex ante PSR contracts. Our supplemental analyses suggest that this difference is likely because employees are more sensitive to prior period compensation determined by ex post PSRs than ex post targets. Compared to ex post targets that are likely perceived to be fair based on peer performance, ex post PSRs based on the peer performance can be used opportunistically by employers and/or are perceived so by employees, which leads to future repercussions manifested in lower employee effort and employer residual profit.     

Would a Flat‐Rate Tax Stimulate Entrepreneurship in Germany? A Behavioural Microsimulation Analysis Allowing for Risk*

When potential income tax reforms are debated, the suspected impact on entrepreneurship is often used as an argument in favour of or against a certain policy. Quantitative ex‐ante evaluations of the effect of certain tax reform options on entrepreneurship are very rare, however. This paper estimates the ex‐ante effects of the German tax reform 2000 and of two hypothetical flat‐rate tax scenarios on entries into and exits out of self‐employment based on a structural microsimulation model with econometrically estimated transition rates under risk. The simulation results indicate that flatter tax systems do not encourage people to choose self‐employment, but rather discourage them from doing so. This is explained by the reduction of entrepreneurs' income risk through progressive taxation.     

The Ex‐Ante Monitoring Role of Accounting Covenants in Public Debt

In contrast to what is known about accounting covenants in private debt, little empirical evidence on the role of accounting covenants in public debt exists. Diffuse ownership, arm's length monitoring, and collective action problems are unique to the public debt setting and raise the question of whether these covenants serve their intended role. As such, this study investigates whether including covenants reliant upon accounting inputs influences borrowers’ actions to prevent adverse credit events. Accounting covenants in the public debt setting provide firms with a disciplining mechanism to renegotiate ahead of costly technical default – a stark contrast to the ex‐post renegotiation ‘trip wire’ role covenants play in private debt. In particular, the results show that including accounting covenants in public debt is associated with an increased probability of ex‐ante renegotiation, that is, negotiation through consent solicitations ahead of covenant violation. This ex‐ante renegotiation, in turn, is associated with decreased adverse credit events. Cross‐sectional results support these findings as the ex‐ante renegotiation role of accounting covenants varies with bondholders’ and trustees’ monitoring ability.     

The superiority and disciplining role of independent analysts

We show that although forecasts of independent analysts are less accurate ex post, they yield forecast errors that are more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns. This suggests that forecasts of independent analysts are superior to those of nonindependent analysts in representing ex ante market expectations. We also show that forecasts of nonindependent analysts become more accurate and less biased, and produce forecast errors more strongly associated with abnormal stock returns when independent analysts are following the same firms than when they are not. This suggests that the presence of independent analysts disciplines the behavior of nonindependent analysts.     

Ex ante performance from ex post models of global equity market correlations

Analysis of ex post returns reveals the time series properties of correlations, but ex ante correlations are required for efficient diversification. We find that a time-varying parameter model offers the best fit to ex post global equity market correlations, suggesting changing mean correlations and changing rates of adjustment back to the means. Nevertheless, we do not find improved forecast performance from time-varying parameter models in holdout periods. The added complexity of time-varying models does not translate into lower forecast errors.     

Corporate governance and the probability of default

We employ Merton's probability of default as a continuous ex‐ante measure of the likelihood of firm failure and dynamic panel generalised method of moments to better characterise the relationship between corporate governance and the chance of default. In doing so, we overcome limitations of discrete proxies widely used in previous studies and more completely account for endogeneity issues permeating this area of research. While initial testing designed to facilitate comparison with previous studies suggests a significant relationship between the probability of default and executive pay, board structure and ownership structure, once endogeneity concerns are accounted for, no such relationship remains.     

Accounting information,disclosure, and expected utility: Do investors really abhor uncertainty?

Investors are said to “abhor uncertainty,” but if there were no uncertainty they could earn only the risk‐free rate. A fundamental result in the analytical accounting literature shows that investors buying into a CARA‐normal CAPM market pay lower asset prices, gain higher ex‐ante expected returns, and obtain higher expected utility, when the market payoff has higher variance. New investors obtain similar “welfare” gains from risk under a log/power utility CAPM. These results do not imply that investors “abhor information.” To realize investors' ex‐ante expectations, the subjective probability distributions representing market expectations must be accurate. Greater payoff risk can add to investors' expected utility, but higher ex‐post(realized) utility comes from better information and more accurate ex‐ante expectations. An important implication for accounting is that greater disclosure can have the simultaneous effects of (i) exposing more fully or perceptibly firms' payoff uncertainty, thereby increasing new investors' expected utility, and (ii) improving market estimates of firms' payoff parameters (means, variances, covariances), thereby giving investors a better chance of realizing their expectations. Paradoxically, better information can be valuable to new investors by exposing more fully and more accurately the risk in firms' business operations and results–new investors maximizing expected utility want both more risk and better information.     

The value of Big 4 audits in Australia

Research suggests that equity markets value Big N audits over non‐Big N audits. Explanations include the information quality hypothesis, whereby Big N auditors increase information quality, and the insurance hypothesis, whereby investors value the deeper pockets of Big N auditors. Using client firms’ex ante cost of capital as the dependent variable, we investigate whether capital market participants differentially value Big 4 versus non‐Big 4 audits in Australia and whether the value of Big 4 audits in Australia changed as a result of the audit failures of 2001–2002. We find that Big 4 audits reduce the ex ante cost of equity capital until 2001, but not after 2001. We cannot dismiss the insurance hypothesis for the persistence of the loss beyond 2003 because of the establishment of liability caps, but the demise of the Big 4 audit value for 2001–2003 is consistent with the information quality hypothesis and does not support the insurance hypothesis.     

Valuing customers and loyalty: The rhetoric of customer focus versus the reality of alienation and exclusion of (de valued) customers

The accounting practice of customer valuation ostensibly emerged from the so-called “customer revolution" of the 1980s. Early conceptions centred around notions such as customer focus and providing value to customers, but these ideas have latterly given way to calculation of the financial value of customers to an organisation. Integral to customer valuation are the reconstruction of the customer as an asset (or liability) of the organisation, the segmentation of customers into identifiable groups, and the treatment of customers as dollars rather than people. Whilst rhetoric of “the customer is king" persists, accounting for customer valuation brings its own transformative terminology and has become a means for organisations to selectively focus on particular customers, rather than the customer in general. The paper examines the health insurance and banking industries as exemplars of the affects of customer valuation, and discusses pivotal issues of access, equity, alienation, and social exclusion. Customer valuation is shown to have become a means to increase shareholder income and wealth, almost inevitably at the cost of (further) marginalising the poor and disadvantaged.     

Effects of perceived cost,service quality,and customer satisfaction on health insurance service continuance

This paper aims to contribute to the universal discourse on financial services continuance behavior by examining the impact of service cost on customers’ service-quality perception and service continuance intention. It presents the results of an empirical study that has explored the impacts of service cost, service quality, and customer satisfaction on health insurance customers’ behavioral intention toward continuing or discontinuing with their service providers. Very few studies had examined the impact of service cost on service-quality perception. Our study attempts to fill that gap. A sample of 820 customers was surveyed, and 624 usable responses were analyzed with ANOVA, standard multiple regression, and logistic regression. Our findings indicate that, although highly satisfied health insurance customers will most likely retain their current service providers, customer dissatisfaction does not necessarily lead to discontinuance. Our results also provide some operational implications for health insurance managers, with strategies for reducing attrition and improving customer retention.     

Customer value analysis in financial services

This study investigates what creates value for customers and how providers can improve value for their customers. A comprehensive analytical model with a four-step approach is presented and applied in the field of financial services. In a first step, the main customer value drivers are identified and five value dimensions are derived, based on qualitative interviews with customers. These results are then compared to value assumptions made by customer-contact employees, and gaps between customer and employee perceptions are analysed. Based on these identified gaps, a multitude of implications for managing company customer value at the normative, strategic, and operational level of management are derived, and finally implications of findings for service marketing practice and research are discussed.     

How similar are frontline bank employees' perceptions of service quality to their customers? A study of female customers and employees in Turkey

This study investigates to what extent underlying configurations of customer evaluations of service quality as perceived by frontline employees and as reported by customers match. Surveys of two groups of female bank customers (151 students and 83 adults) and 68 female bank employees in Turkey serve as the study setting. The SERVQUAL instrument is used in measuring employees' and customers' perceptions of service quality. The factor congruency technique is employed to determine the extent of similarities and disparities among the groups. Results show that the underlying configurations of service quality perceptions decompose into three factors in the cases of both customer groups and five factors in the case of employees. Overall, customers' and employees' service quality perceptions do not correspond. This discrepancy underscores the need for accurate assessment of customer perceptions of service quality and training of employees to look at service quality from the perspective of customers by using customers' definitions. Avenues for future reasearch are offered.     

Customer emotional regulation and relationship quality: Evidence from the banking industry

The aim of this paper is twofold: first to examine the extent to which customer perceptions of employee deep/surface acting influence customer deep/surface acting; second to assess the degree to which customer deep/surface acting strengthens/weakens the level of relationship quality (RQ). Survey data were collected from (291) respondents from 13 banks located in Jordan. Two key findings emerged from the current study. First, when customers encountered authentic employees (i.e., deep acting), they were more likely to modify their internal feelings to match the required displays, and less likely to express unauthentic emotions. On the other hand, when customers encountered unauthentic emotions, they were less likely to express unauthentic emotions. Second, customer deep acting is found to be positively associated with relationship satisfaction, commitment, and trust, whereas customer surface acting is negatively associated with relationship satisfaction and trust. This study adds to the body of knowledge on the antecedents of RQ through identifying customer emotional regulation as a key determinant of that.     

The four faces of mass customization

Virtually all executives today recognize the need to provide outstanding service to customers. Focusing on the customer, however, is both an imperative and a potential curse. In their desire to become customer driven, many companies have resorted to inventing new programs and procedures to meet every customer's request. But as customers and their needs grow increasingly diverse, such an approach has become a surefire way to add unnecessary cost and complexity to operations. Companies around the world have embraced mass customization in an attempt to avoid those pitfalls. Readily available information technology and flexible work processes permit them to customize goods or services for individual customers in high volumes at low cost. But many managers have discovered that mass customization itself can produce unnecessary cost and complexity. They are realizing that they did not examine thoroughly enough what kind of customization their customers would value before they plunged ahead. That is understandable. Until now, no framework has existed to help managers determine the type of customization they should pursue. James Gilmore and Joseph Pine provide managers with just such a framework. They have identified four distinct approaches to customization. When designing or redesigning a product, process, or business unit, managers should examine each approach for possible insights into how to serve their customers best. In some cases, a single approach will dominate the design. More often, however, managers will need a mix of some or all of the four approaches to serve their own particular set of customers.