Life Expectancy in 2040: What Do Clinical Experts Expect?

We use expert clinical and public health opinion to estimate likely changes in the prevention and treatment of important disease conditions and how they will affect future life expectancy. Focus groups were held including clinical and public health faculty with expertise in the six leading causes of death in the United States. Mortality rates and life tables for 2040 were derived by sex and age. Life expectancy at age 20 and 65 was compared to figures published by the Social Security Administration and to estimates from the Lee-Carter method. There was agreement among all three approaches that life expectancy at age 20 will increase by approximately one year per decade for females and males between now and 2040. According to the clinical experts, 70% of the improvement in life expectancy will occur in cardiovascular disease and cancer, while in the last 30 years most of the improvement has occurred in cardiovascular disease. Expert opinion suggests that most of the increase in life expectancy will be attributable to the already achieved reduction in smoking rates, especially for women.     

Do Investors Expect Mean Reversion in Asset Prices?

We investigate the existence and source of equilibrium mean reversion in UK non-financial and financial asset prices over the period 6 April, 1981, through 31 October, 1995. Our results indicate substantial expected transitory components in commodity and metals markets but report expected mean reversion for financial assets only at the near to maturity horizons. Implied cash flow yields appear to have a role in driving the mean reverting process particularly at short horizons while the role of interest rate movements varied across assets and across maturities. Our results reject the existence of a common risk premium across market term structures.     

What Do Investment Banks Truly Bring to the Table?

This paper investigates the role of intermediaries in the initial public offering (IPO) process. In the U.S. market, investment banks have traditionally been involved in a firm‐commitment or best‐efforts underwriting capacity. However, in the Australian IPO market, investment banks are increasingly being named in association with new issues in diverse roles such as issue managers, sponsoring brokers and corporate advisers. Using a sample of 468 IPOs over the 1996 to mid‐2006 period, we examine the influence of investment banks across these different engagements. In support of the signalling and information production roles of intermediaries, we find that issuers choosing high intermediary involvement are typically older, retain more capital, seek to raise larger amounts of capital and are without independent expert certification. We find mixed support for the certification hypothesis when testing for the effect of intermediary reputation on IPO issuer wealth loss. Further, the impact of intermediary involvement on underpricing is not significantly different for the different levels of intermediary involvement once issue characteristics have been accounted for. This is puzzling since these different roles by definition do not provide the same level of issue quality assurance.     

An Individual’s Chosen Retirement Age: When is the Economically Feasible Retirement Age Chosen over the Anchor Provided by Known Others?

Abstract

Do individuals make rational, well-planned retirement age decisions? Evidence is not conclusive; some decisions seem to be quite reasonable, while others, including the long-term trends generated by these decisions, seem irrational. In order to be able to predict and influence these important decisions, the process leading up to making them needs to be better understood. The process an individual uses to make a retirement decision may be influenced by a rational allocation of money, time, and effort, as suggested by a utility-maximizing Household Production approach. Alternately, the decision process may be strongly influenced by an anchor, defined by the retirement ages chosen by friends, neighbors, relatives, and colleagues, as suggested by Anchoring and Prospect Theory. Studies investigating anchoring and risk-seeking or risk-aversion behavior, which results when a target is seen as a loss or a gain from the anchor, have found that individuals make irrational decisions under many different circumstances. A set of retirement decision propositions, which hypothesize that the heuristic of Anchoring and the resulting cognitive biases described by Prospect Theory will influence the chosen retirement age, are developed in this paper. Retirement information provided by the employer is a possible moderator that may reduce the influence of the anchor on the retirement decision; a set of moderator hypotheses are also developed in this paper. Propositions strongly supported by existing research predict that, unless sufficient information regarding retirement issues is used by an individual, he or she is likely to choose an inappropriate retirement age.     

Surmounting Life＇s Obstacles - Do You Cling to What You Were Before？

An 84-year-old retired stockbroker was admitted to our hospital＇s intensive-care unit, suffering froma peptic ulcer and shock from internal hemorrhage. As intravenous lines were started and fluid infused, his vital signs improved rapidly.     

What Are You Saying? Using topic to Detect Financial Misreporting

We use a machine learning technique to assess whether the thematic content of financial statement disclosures (labeled topic) is incrementally informative in predicting intentional misreporting. Using a Bayesian topic modeling algorithm, we determine and empirically quantify the topic content of a large collection of 10-K narratives spanning 1994 to 2012. We find that the algorithm produces a valid set of semantically meaningful topics that predict financial misreporting, based on samples of Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) enforcement actions (Accounting and Auditing Enforcement Releases [AAERs]) and irregularities identified from financial restatements and 10-K filing amendments. Our out-of-sample tests indicate that topic significantly improves the detection of financial misreporting by as much as 59% when added to models based on commonly used financial and textual style variables. Furthermore, models that incorporate topic significantly outperform traditional models when detecting serious revenue recognition and core expense errors. Taken together, our results suggest that the topics discussed in annual report filings and the attention devoted to each topic are useful signals in detecting financial misreporting.     

Do managers listen to the market?

There are competing theories as to whether managers learn from stock prices. Dye and Sridhar (2002), for example, argue that capital markets can be better informed than the firm itself, while Roll [Roll, R., 1986, “The hubris hypothesis of corporate takeovers,” Journal of Business 59, 97–216.] argues managers may ignore market signals due to hubris. In this paper, we examine whether managers listen to the market in making major corporate investments, and whether agency costs and corporate governance mechanisms help explain managers' propensity to listen. We find that, on average, managers listen to the market: they are more likely to cancel investments when the market reacts unfavorably to the related announcement. Further, we find mixed evidence consistent with the notion that managers' propensity to listen is related to agency costs. We find that firms tend to listen to the market more when more of their shares are held by large blockholders, and when their CEOs have higher pay-performance sensitivities.     

Culture and capital structure: What else to the puzzle?

This paper investigates four of Hofstede's cultural dimensions –individualism, masculinity, uncertainty avoidance, and long-term orientation– influence on firms' choices of short-term and long-term capital structures. Cultures influence on corporate risk-taking may drive their debt-to-equity mix based on the higher of their equity book or market value. We empirically test culture influence with a sample of 5968 firms from five industry sectors, across 33 countries, over 2009–2017. We find firms national culture influencing their choices of short-term and long-term debt to book and market value of equity. The influence is more significant on the short-term than the long-term capital structures. Furthermore, it is more significant on the short-term debt to market value of equity and on the long-term debt to book value of equity. Our robustness checks at the firm-level, country-level and sample-level confirm and reinforce our main results. These findings would provide financial analysts, investors, and creditors an in-depth understanding when comparing international firms' capital structures.     

What actions can be taken to increase whistle-blowing in the classroom?

This study surveyed undergraduate business students on various issues concerning the potential of students whistle-blowing when they observe other students cheating. Developing the courage of one's conviction in our accounting students is important to accounting educators as we are also emphasizing traits such as integrity, skepticism, and professionalism to our accounting students. As the data were gathered in the first introductory-accounting course, students’ cheating and whistle-blowing attitudes were already established. We found that, while students who had cheated in the past were more likely to suggest incentives and cash rewards, students who had never cheated were more concerned with increased confidentiality. Consequently, the need for assuring strict confidentiality is as important to our accounting students as it was to our former accounting clients in developing the trust necessary for the disclosure of sensitive information.     

The Global Child Labor Problem: What Do We Know and What Can We Do?

The problem of child labor has moved from a matter of regionaland national concern to one of international debate and possibleglobal persuasion and policy intervention. In crafting policyfor mitigating this enormous problem of our times, it is importantto start with a proper theoretical and empirical understandingof the phenomenon. What gives rise to child labor, and whatare its consequences? What interventions might end child laborwithout hurting children? A well-meaning but poorly designedpolicy can exacerbate the poverty in which these laboring childrenlive, even leading to starvation. The article surveys the largeand rapidly growing literature on this subject, focusing mainlyon the new literature based on modern economic theory and econometrics.It also looks at some of the broad policy implications of thesenew findings, with the objective of contributing to better informeddiscussion and policy design.     

Do the stock and CDS markets price credit risk equally in the long-run?

In this paper, we examine the existence and stability of the long-run equilibrium relation between the price of credit risk in the stock and CDS markets for a sample of non-financial iTraxx Europe companies during the 2004–2017 period. We show that standard cointegration tests with no breaks frequently fail to detect cointegration. Once we formally account for the breaks in the cointegrating vector, we are able to detect cointegration over the entire sample period for the vast majority of the companies considered. An application of these results to CDS-equity trading shows that the profitability of traditional trading strategies crucially depends on the presence of cointegration and on the stability of the cointegrating vector. Finally, we find that CDS illiquidity factors decrease the likelihood of the stock and CDS market cointegration.     

On the differences in measuring SMB and HML in the UK – Do they matter?

The Fama–French (FF) three factor model expands the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) to include two additional factors to the market factor – SMB, employed to capture a firm size effect in returns and HML employed to capture book-to-market effects in returns. In the UK, different researchers use different ways of calculating SMB and HML in the context of empirical applications of the three factor model, or extensions of it, perhaps because they believe the differences in the construction of the SMB and HML factors to be relatively unimportant from an empirical standpoint. We investigate whether indeed factor construction methods are unimportant. Our conclusion is that they do matter.     

Guaranteeing Healthcare: What Does the Care Guarantee Do?

Abstract: According to the Swedish Health and Medical Services Act, healthcare is to be provided to the population according to need and on equal terms. It must also be accessible – a part of healthcare that has been criticized. In an effort to improve accessibility, the Swedish Association of Local Authorities and Regions and the government have both agreed to introduce a national care guarantee with effect from 01‐11‐2005. On 01‐07‐2010, the guarantee was incorporated into the Health and Medical Services Act. This paper considers, using the ideas of Foucault (discursive formation), Butler and Callon (performativity), how the idea of a care guarantee came to be influential during the formulation of Sweden's healthcare policies and on the management of services in hospitals. The concept of performativity is used to illustrate how the care guarantee becomes binding on the county council, as a promise to the patient.     

What Do Management Earnings Forecasts Convey About the Macroeconomy?

We decompose quantitative management earnings forecasts into macroeconomic and firm‐specific components to determine the extent to which voluntary disclosure provided by management has macroeconomic information content. We provide evidence that the forecasts of bellwether firms, which are defined as firms in which macroeconomic news explains the greatest amount of variation in the forecasts, provide timely information to the market about the macroeconomy when bundled with earnings announcements. Further, we show that bellwether firms provide timely information about both industry‐specific events and broader economic events. Finally, we document that the macroeconomic news in individual forecasts is more pronounced for bad news and point forecasts.     

What Do We Know About Market Discipline in Insurance?

The aim of this article is to summarize the knowledge on market discipline in insurance and other financial service sectors. Market discipline can be defined as the ability of customers, investors, intermediaries (agents, brokers), and evaluators (analysts, auditors, rating agencies) to monitor and influence a company's management. Looking at banking is especially interesting, since market discipline in this field has been studied extensively. Based on existing knowledge, we develop a framework for researching market discipline in insurance that includes its most important drivers and impediments. The results highlight a significant need for continuing research. The findings are of relevance not only for European insurers and regulators, but for institutions outside Europe.     

Who You Going to Call? Performance of Realtors and Non-realtors in a MLS Setting

This study attempts to shed some light on the extent of non-realtor broker listings on the MLS and their resulting price and time-on-the markets effects. Using duration, probit and selling price models, this study empirically examines whether the REALTOR designation provides a signal of quality that is reflected in the price and time on the market for sellers. Results indicate that properties listed by non-realtors on the MLS setting sell at lower prices, take slightly longer to sell, and are less likely to sell than properties listed by REALTORs in a MLS setting. Working with a REALTOR in a MLS setting appears to be advantageous to the seller.

Do jumps contribute to the dynamics of the equity premium?

This paper investigates whether risks associated with time-varying arrival of jumps and their effect on the dynamics of higher moments of returns are priced in the conditional mean of daily market excess returns. We find that jumps and jump dynamics are significantly related to the market equity premium. The results from our time-series approach reinforce the importance of the skewness premium found in cross-sectional studies using lower-frequency data; and offer a potential resolution to sometimes conflicting results on the intertemporal risk-return relationship. We use a general utility specification, consistent with our pricing kernel, to evaluate the relative value of alternative risk premium models in an out-of-sample portfolio performance application.     

Do Firms Adjust Their Timely Loss Recognition in Response to Changes in the Banking Industry?

This paper investigates the impact of changes in the banking sector on firms’ timely recognition of economic losses. In particular, we focus on the entry of foreign banks into India during the 1990s, which likely causes an exogenous increase in lender demand for timely loss recognition. Analyzing variation in both the timing and the location of the new foreign banks’ entries, we find that foreign bank entry is associated with more timely loss recognition and this increase is positively related to a firm's subsequent debt levels. The change appears driven by a shift in firms’ incentives to supply additional information to lenders and lenders seem to value this information. The increase in timely loss recognition is also concentrated among firms more dependent on external financing: private firms, smaller firms, and nongroup firms. Overall, our evidence suggests that a firm's accounting choices respond to changes in the banking industry.     

When and Why Do Takeovers Lead to Fraud?

This paper develops a model explaining how acquisitions of controlling block ownership can facilitate post‐takeover fraud by new managers when investor protection is poor. Based on disclosures of embezzlement or breach of fiduciary duty in Korean firms, we find that the probability of explicit looting in takeover targets is 13%, almost five times as large as a matched sample of non‐targets. Post‐takeover frauds are primarily driven by transfers of minority blocks, while the corresponding probability in majority acquisitions is statistically indistinguishable from the non‐targets. These findings may explain why minority acquisitions of controlling blocks are popular under poor investor protection.