Tax Expenditures on Health in Australia: 1960–61 to 1988–89

Commonwealth government tax expenditures arise because departures from the tax structure produce favourable tax treatment of particular types of activities or taxpayers. Such tax concessions can be used in the same way as direct expenditures to give effect to government policies, and in fact are often used as substitutes for direct expenditures. Although estimates of tax expenditures on health in more recent times are readily available, this form of subsidisation of the health sector has not been used heavily since the introduction of Medicare in 1984. It is for the period spanning the 1960s and the 1970s, when tax expenditures were a much more important source of health care finance, that consistent estimates are lacking. This article presents estimates of the revenue cost of income tax concessions for health in Australia over the period 1960–61 to 1988–89 and integrates these estimates into the currently available health expenditure statistics. It is concluded that failure to allow for tax expenditures on health when analysing public expenditures on health in Australia can lead to misleading conclusions about the net fiscal impact of changes in the Commonwealth's health expenditure policy. In particular, the fiscal effect of introducing Medihank in 1975 is significantly lower if account is taken of changes to tax concessions on health occurring at the same time. Likewise, the net cost of the introduction of Medicare in 1984 is overstated by measures based on direct outlays alone.     

Macroeconomic Policy in Australia Since the Sixties

This article reviews macroeconomic policy in Australia since the 1960s. It is argued that economic thinking by Australian governments progressed from a Keynesian approach to a classical approach in 1975 and then to a Keynesian-classical synthesis in 1983. To the usual major indicators of macroeconomic performance, unemployment and inflation, the article adds a third indicator, called thrift. Thrift is a measure of how society is allocating its resources between current and future consumption. The record of thrift for Australia since the 1960s is described and evaluated.     

The Demand for Wine in Australia, 1955–1977*

The consumption of wine in Australia has risen markedly since the mid-1960s, from an apparent consumption per capita of 5·53 litres in 1965 to 13·04 litres in 1977. A number of factors (both social and economic) have contributed to this rapid growth in consumption which, despite the increases which have occurred, is still low by European standards. This paper presents the results of a study designed to quantify these factors and to establish their relative importance in explaining the demand for wine in Australia since 1955.     

The Socially Optimal Level of Saving in Australia, 1960-61 to 1994-95

In this paper a model is developed which determines the socially optimal level of saving for a small open economy. The model also determines the socially optimal disposition of saving between domestic capital accumulation and overseas asset accumulation. The model is then applied to the Australian economy for the period 1960-61 to 1994-95. For each year of that period socially optimal levels of saving, investment and the current account of the balance of payments are determined. Two main conclusions emerge. Firstly, while Australia under-saved by an average of 1.7 per cent of GDP from 1974-75 to 1994-95, it over-saved by an average of 5.3 per cent of GDP in the earlier period from 1960-61 to 1973-74. Secondly, Australia did not make optimal use of world capital markets to smooth consumption in the period from 1960-61 to 1994-95; although there is less evidence for this since 1984-85, suggesting that deregulation of capital markets may have facilitated the optimal smoothing of consumption.     

Intertemporal Consumption Smoothing and Capital Mobility: Evidence from Australia

This paper examines the optimality of international capital flows to Australia, a persistent net importer of capital, during its post‐capital controls period 1984–99. The evolution of Australia’s current account balance is compared against a benchmark derived from an optimising model of intertemporal consumption smoothing. The consumption‐smoothing approach to the determination of the current account implies that international capital flows act as a buffer to smooth aggregate consumption in the face of temporary shocks to the economic fundamentals: changes in national cash flow (that is, changes in the level of output, investment or government spending). It is found that in the early 1990s a structural break occurred in the relationship between consumption and national cash flow, which coincides with a switch from debt‐financing to equity‐financing of the current account deficit. In the decade of the 1990s following this structural break (and unlike the decade of the 1980s which preceded this break), international capital flows to Australia implied a path for consumption which was broadly consistent with expected‐utility maximisation under the consumption‐smoothing model of the current account.     

International Shocks on Australia – The Japanese Effect

Although Australia has an equivalently large trading relationship with Japan and the US, current macro models often incorporate only US variables in the external sector of Australia. This paper explores the consequences of including both US and Japanese effects in the international sector of a SVAR model of Australia. The results indicate the significance of the Japanese effects. Excluding Japan results in an overstatement of the impact of US based shocks on the Australian economy. When Japan is included, US based shocks remain dominant in explaining Australian outcomes, but the responses are moderated compared with a model incorporating only a US based external sector. This has important implications for domestic policy responses to international shocks. Without the influence of Japan, domestic monetary policy will over-react to a US based shock.     

The Measurement of Poverty in Australia: 1981–82 and 1985–86

In this paper I discuss indices used to measure the level of poverty in Australia among demographic groups and over time. The strengths and deficiencies of indices in current use are noted and alternative indices are presented. The theoretical properties of the indices are compared and discussed. The discussion is extended to include a brief review of poverty lines paying particular attention to the method used to update them. Poverty is measured for 1981–82 and 1985–86 for broad demographic groups. Differences between groups in each year and trends over time are noted and discussed. The performance of alternative indices are compared.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM 1830–1914

This paper presents a new annual series for United Kingdom gross national product, at current and constant prices, calculated from the expenditure side. These results differ significantly from previous estimates in that they go back to the beginning of the railway age on an annual basis and also in that the constant price estimates involve a detailed deflation of the main components of expenditure on consumption and capital formation. The implications of the new results are summarised, with particular reference to rates of growth and relative price changes, and an appendix describes the sources of the estimates.     

INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS OF REAL PRODUCT AND ITS COMPOSITION: 1950–77

Structural relationships estimated from data obtained in a benchmark study of the expenditures and prices of 16 countries are used to develop a table of real gross domestic product and shares of gross domestic product devoted to private and public consumption and investment for each of over 100 countries in the years 1950 and 1960 through 1977. Price level estimates for total product and the three components are also provided.     

Top Wealth Shares in Australia 1915–2012

Combining data from surveys, inheritance tax records, and rich lists, we estimate top wealth shares for Australia from World War I until the present day. We find that the top 1 percent share declined by two‐thirds from 1915 until the late 1960s, and rose from the late 1970s to 2010. The recent increase is sharpest at the top of the distribution, with the top 0.001 percent wealth share tripling from 1984 to 2012. The trend in top wealth shares is similar to that in Australian top income shares (though the drop in the first half of the twentieth century is larger for wealth than income shares). Since the early twentieth century, top wealth shares in Australia have been lower than in the U.K. and U.S.     

International Inequality and Convergence in Educational Attainment, 1960–1990

The paper examines the international inequality and convergence of educational attainment from 1960 to 1990. Despite the increasing trend in educational attainment, the gap in educational attainment between the developing countries and developed countries and that between males and females increased in the period. However, the relative dispersion of educational attainment—as measured by the coefficient of variation, the Gini coefficient, or the standard deviation of log average years of schooling—declined consistently during the period by either development or gender status. Decompositions of the Gini coefficient indicate that the development gap and the gender gap were the main components for world inequality in educational attainment in both 1960 and 1990. Educational attainment exhibited b - and s -convergence over the period.     

THE GROWTH OF THE INDIAN ECONOMY: 1860–1960

This paper is concerned with an examination of growth trends of the Indian economy between 1860 and 1960. This examination commences with the numerous studies bearing on the more recent part of this period, from about 1900 to 1960. These studies are shown to vary greatly in coverage and comprehensiveness, and their differences and individual shortcomings are assessed. Nevertheless, these studies conclude, without exception, that the Indian economy remained virtually stationary in this period, especially in terms of negligible growth in per capita real income. In contrast to periods since 1900, the study of economic growth during the earlier period has suffered academic neglect. There are only two major studies which make an attempt to examine economic trends in this period. Both these studies are found wanting with respect to concepts and procedures. The period from 1860 to 1913 presents serious problems in any study since there is a paucity of statistics which are at all reliable and useful. The most promising approach for overcoming this deficiency is to develop better sectoral statistics rather than to rely on aggregative data even when available. In order to gain a better understanding of the growth trends of the Indian economy over this period, the author constructed indices of major economic activities. These indices demonstrate that relatively high rate of economic growth prevailed in India before 1890. Subsequent developments in the Indian economy seem to consist of minor changes in the magnitudes of economic variables rather than fundamental structural changes. Thus, the Indian economy is shown to have enjoyed relatively high rates of growth only in the initial three decades of the hundred-year period, 1860–1960.     

The Australian Growth Experience, 1960–2000: Human Capital,R&D or Steady‐State Growth?

This article examines the sources of economic growth in Australia from 1960 to 2000 by adapting a framework developed in Jones (2002), whereby long‐run growth is driven by the global discovery of new ideas, which in turn is tied to world population growth. We find that, contrary to the conventional view as suggested by sustained growth rates and a stable capital–output ratio over the last several decades, Australia is clearly not on its steady–state balanced growth path. Australia has benefited from increases in educational attainment and research intensity: 42 per cent of Australian growth between 1960 and 2000 is attributable to the rise in educational attainment, about 20 to 40 per cent is attributable to increasing research intensity, while only 10 to 30 per cent is due to long‐run population growth in the idea‐producing countries.     

An Estimate of the Range of Equilibrium Rates of Unemployment for Australia

This paper estimates the range of equilibrium rates of unemployment for Australia. The estimation technique nests a unique equilibrium rate of unemployment as a special case. It is found for the period 1965–97 that a range of equilibria of at least 6.6 percentage points of unemployment exists in Australia. The lower limit of this range, which is the minimum rate of unemployment consistent with non-increasing inflation, was 2–3 per cent in the 1960s, jumped in the early 1970s and was about 5.6 per cent during the 1990s.     

A NEW PICTURE OF SWEDISH EARNINGS INEQUALITY: PERSISTENT AND TRANSITORY COMPONENTS, 1960–1990

Using a large individual longitudinal database, I decompose the cross-sectional variance of male annual earnings in Sweden between 1960 and 1990 into persistent and transitory components. The persistent variance displays a downward trend during the whole sample period, but with the rate of decline more rapid up until the early 1980s than afterwards. The transitory variance has increased from 1960 until the early 1970s, decreased slightly until the late 1970s, and then risen again during the second half of the 1980s. An important lesson from these results concern the interpretation of the rise in cross-sectional inequality observed after the 1983 breakdown of centralized bargaining in Sweden. While it has often been presumed that this growth reflected increased returns to skills, this study shows that it was in fact due to increased transitory earnings fluctuations.     

Economic growth and structure of domestic absorption: Evidence from internationally comparable data

Using the Chenery-Syrquin models of structural change, and internationally comparable data on GDP per capita and shares of consumption, investment and government spending for the 1960s and the 1970s, a study is conducted of changes in the structure of domestic absorption that accompany economic growth. Relative to the conventional data, ‘real’ data indicate the fall in the share of consumption to be somewhat lower and the rise in the share of investment to be larger, as GDP per capita rises. The share of government is observed to decline, although most previous studies indicate an increase in government share with economic growth.     

Structural Deficits and Fiscal Policy Stance in Australia, 1966–67 to 1988–89

This study adjusts the total deficit (or net public sector borrowing requirement) of the whole of the public sector in Australia for the effects of changes in both the level of economic activity and the implicit tax that inflation imposes on the holders of government bonds. Both adjustments are important, even when looking at year-to-year changes in the structural deficit. When the stance of fiscal policy is measured by the structural deficit as a percentage of gross domestic product, four years stand out as years of major changes. In each of the years 1973-74, 1979-80 and 1987-88 the stance of fiscal policy was substantially tightened with the abrupt tightening in 1979-80 being the largest change, though not much larger than that in 1973-74. By far the biggest change relaxing the stance of fiscal policy was in 1983-84, and the change in this year was the biggest of any change in either direction in the period.     

The Impact of Population Aging on the Socially Optimal Rate of National Saving: A Comparison of Australia and Japan

This paper calculates, using a representative-agent model of a small open economy, the optimal rate of national saving for Australia and Japan for the period from the middle 1990s to 2050. The calculations focus on the implications of making allowance for the aging structure of the population in both economies on employment participation, consumption demands, and labor productivity. It is found that for Australia the optimal rate of national saving increases up to the year 2011 and then decreases. For Japan the optimal national saving rate decreases from the mid-1990s until 2020. The subsequent pattern to 2050 is generally one of decrease with the exact pattern being sensitive to the weight placed on the consumption demands of old people. The contrast in these patterns between Australia and Japan is due to the fact that, compared with Australia, the aging effect on the structure of population in Japan occurs sooner and will be of greater severity.     

Four decades of Asian American women's earnings: Japanese, Chinese, and Filipino American women's earnings 1960–1990

This article examines the earnings progress of Asian American women from 1960 through 1990 by comparing their actual hourly wage and salary earnings to simulated earnings. The simulated earnings are obtained by using parameter estimates obtained from human capital models of white women corrected for sample selection bias. Data come from the decennial census Public Use Micro Samples data. American-born Asian American women appear to have made dramatic gains in the 1970s. The 1980s and 1990s show some fluctuations in actual earings relative to simulated earnings between Asian American and white women. These fluctuations may be due to problems measuring experience as opposed to differences in discrimination over time.     

The Distribution of Wealth in Australia — A Survey*

This paper surveys and analyzes the available evidence on the distribution of wealth in Australia. On the basis of this evidence, it is argued that the cross-section distribution of personal wealth reveals considerable concentration in the top tail, with the top 1 per cent of adult individuals holding around 25 per cent of private wealth. The inequality of wealth revealed in the cross-section distribution among the top 10 per cent of wealth holders is not significantly reduced when adjustments are made to correct for life-cycle influences. Although the proportion of wealth held by the top 1 per cent of adult individuals has decreased sharply since World War I, the second to tenth percentiles have almost the same proportion in the 1960s and 1970s as in 1915.