Can information confusion caused by the financing model of new economy companies be eliminated?

New economy companies often use convertible and redeemable preferred shares with equity and debt characteristics as financing tools to reduce risk during their early stages of growth. According to relevant accounting standards, such preferred shares should be classified as financial liabilities and measured at fair value, with changes in fair value recognized in profit or loss. This can lead to confusing financial information: the better a company’s development prospects, the higher its redemption or conversion price and loss, which can result in a large negative net asset value. A successful initial public offering, however, could offset large losses and negative net asset value. Following the development of accounting standards, this article thoroughly analyzes various proposals to modify relevant accounting standards and eliminate confusing information. This article also proposes possible problems and solutions as a reference for accounting standard setters and the various stakeholders in new economy companies.     

Minimizing the Cost of Risk With Simulation Optimization Technique

For risk managers, one overarching goal is to help their organizations maximize stakeholders’ value, which can be achieved by minimizing the cost of risk. Oftentimes such optimization decisions have to be made under uncertainty. This article presents a teaching note that demonstrates how to use simulation‐based software to run optimization involving uncertain factors. Specifically, a hypothetical example regarding workers’ compensation claims cost was created to provide a step‐by‐step instruction for conducting simulation optimization.     

Mortality-Indexed Annuities Managing Longevity Risk Via Product Design

Abstract

Longevity risk has become a major challenge for governments, individuals, and annuity providers in most countries. In its aggregate form, the systematic risk of changes to general mortality patterns, it has the potential for causing large cumulative losses for insurers. Since obvious risk management tools, such as (re)insurance or hedging, are less suited for managing an annuity provider’s exposure to this risk, we propose a type of life annuity with benefits contingent on actual mortality experience.

Similar adaptations to conventional product design exist with investment-linked annuities, and a role model for long-term contracts contingent on actual cost experience can be found in German private health insurance. By effectively sharing systematic longevity risk with policyholders, insurers may avoid cumulative losses.

Policyholders also gain in comparison with a comparable conventional annuity product: Using a Monte Carlo simulation, we identify a significant upside potential for policyholders while downside risk is limited.     

Understanding Basis Risk in Insurance Contracts

There is a tremendous amount of resources being tied up in litigation between insurance companies and policyholders over things like the extent of coverage for various loss scenarios or allegedly bad faith delays in settlement payments. The fact that policyholders formally dispute insurer coverage positions or claims payment strategies gives credibility to the idea that mismatches exist between what policyholders expect insurance policies to cover and what the insurance contracts actually provide as loss indemnification. This mismatch essentially represents insurance basis risk, the analysis of which can more accurately reflect the value and overall efficiency of insurance contracts and suggest factors that may influence policyholder dissatisfaction and consequently insurance contract disputes. This article takes a detailed look at insurance basis risk and finds that subjectivity plays a prominent role in its definition. Using Bayesian inference, it is shown how factors can affect the magnitude of insurance basis risk depending on the individual situation in which the mismatch between losses and coverage exists.     

A Markov-switching generalized additive model for compound Poisson processes,with applications to operational loss models

This paper is concerned with modelling the behaviour of random sums over time. Such models are particularly useful to describe the dynamics of operational losses, and to correctly estimate tail-related risk indicators. However, time-varying dependence structures make it a difficult task. To tackle these issues, we formulate a new Markov-switching generalized additive compound process combining Poisson and generalized Pareto distributions. This flexible model takes into account two important features: on the one hand, we allow all parameters of the compound loss distribution to depend on economic covariates in a flexible way. On the other hand, we allow this dependence to vary over time, via a hidden state process. A simulation study indicates that, even in the case of a short time series, this model is easily and well estimated with a standard maximum likelihood procedure. Relying on this approach, we analyse a novel data-set of 819 losses resulting from frauds at the Italian bank UniCredit. We show that our model improves the estimation of the total loss distribution over time, compared to standard alternatives. In particular, this model provides estimations of the 99.9% quantile that are never exceeded by the historical total losses, a feature particularly desirable for banking regulators.     

The Optimal Write-Down Coefficients in a Percentage for a Catastrophe Bond

Catastrophe bonds, also known as CAT bonds, are insurance-linked securities that help to transfer catastrophe risks from insurance industry to bond holders. When the aggregate catastrophe loss exceeds a specified amount by the maturity, the CAT bond is triggered and the future bond payments are reduced. This article first presents a general pricing formula for a CAT bond with coupon payments, which can be adapted to various assumptions for a catastrophe loss process. Next, it gives formulas for the optimal write-down coefficients in a percentage, implemented by Monte Carlo simulations, which maximize two measurements of risk reduction, hedge effectiveness rate (HER) and hedge effectiveness (HE), respectively, and examines how the optimal write-down coefficients in a percentage help reinsurance or insurance companies to mitigate extreme catastrophe losses. Last, it demonstrates how the number of coupon payments, loss share, retention level, strike price, maturity, frequency, and severity parameters of the catastrophe loss process and different interest rate models affect the optimal write-down coefficients in a percentage with numerical examples for illustrations.     

Equilibrium in Competitive Insurance Markets Under Adverse Selection and Yaari's Dual Theory of Risk

Under Yaari's dual theory of risk, we determine the equilibrium separating contracts for high and low risks in a competitive insurance market, in which risks are defined only by their expected losses, that is, a high risk is a risk that has a greater expected loss than a low risk. Also, we determine the pooling equilibrium contract when insurers are assumed non-myopic. Expected utility theory generally predicts that optimal insurance indemnity payments are nonlinear functions of the underlying loss due to the nonlinearity of agents' utility functions. Under Yaari's dual theory, we show that under mild technical conditions the indemnity payment is a piecewise linear function of the loss, a common property of insurance coverages.     

A practical road map for assessing cyber risk

The increase in interconnectivity and developments in technology have caused cyber security to become a universal concern. This paper highlights the dangers of the evolution of cyber risk, the challenges of quantifying the impact of cyber-attacks and the feasibility of the traditional actuarial methodologies for quantifying cyber losses. In this paper, we present a practical roadmap for assessing cyber risk, a roadmap that emphasizes the importance of developing a company and culture-specific risk and resilience model. We develop a structure for a Bayesian network to model the financial loss as a function of the key drivers of risk and resilience. We use qualitative scorecard assessment to determine the level of cyber risk exposure and evaluate the effectiveness of resilience efforts in the organization. We highlight the importance of capitalizing on the knowledge of experts within the organization and discuss methods for aggregating multiple assessments. From an enterprise risk management perspective, impact on value should be the primary concern of managers. This paper uses a value-centric/reputational approach to risk management rather than a regulatory/capital-centric approach to risk.     

Valuation of tax loss carryforwards

Tax loss carryforwards (TLC) are a valuable asset because they can potentially reduce a company’s future tax payments. However, there is often a great deal of uncertainty regarding the probability and timing of these tax savings. We propose a contingent-claim model to value this asset. The value is determined primarily by the size of accumulated carryforwards relative to earnings. We show that, for poorly performing firms with large TLC, (1) the realizable (or fair) value of the tax losses can be significantly smaller than the book value, and (2) the tax losses can account for a significant fraction of the company’s equity value. The model is illustrated by calibrating it to a couple of companies with large carryforwards. Finally, we show how the model can be used to compute the marginal tax rate of a company with carryforwards.     

Bifurcation of attritional and large losses in an additive IBNR environment

In certain segments, IBNR calculations on paid triangles are more stable than on incurred triangles. However, calculations on payments often do not adequately take large losses into account. An IBNR method which separates large and attritional losses and thus allows to use payments for the attritional and incurred amounts for the large losses has been introduced by Riegel (see Riegel, U. (2014). A bifurcation approach for attritional and large losses in chain ladder calculations. Astin Bulletin 44, 127–172). The method corresponds to a stochastic model that is based on Mack’s chain ladder model. In this paper, we analyse a quasi-additive version of this model, i.e. a version which is in essence based on the assumptions of the additive (or incremental loss ratio) method. We describe the corresponding IBNR method and derive formulas for the mean squared error of prediction.     

Improving expected tail loss estimates with neural networks

Expected tail loss (ETL) and other ‘coherent’ risk measures are rapidly gaining acceptance amongst risk managers due to the limitations of value‐at‐risk (VaR) as a risk measure. In this article we explore the use of multilayer perceptron supervised neural networks to improve our estimates of ETL numbers using information from both tails of the distribution. We compare the results with the historical simulation approach to the estimation of VaR and ETL. The evaluation results indicate that the ETL estimates using neural networks are superior to historical simulation ETL estimates in all periods except for one, and in that case the historical ETL is slightly superior. Overall, therefore, when the whole period is considered, our results indicate that the network estimates of ETL are superior to the historical ones. Finally, one of the most interesting results of the study is the fact that the neural networks seem to indicate that VaR and ETL (as a function of VaR itself) are dependent not only on the negative returns observed, but also on large positive returns, which indicates that too much emphasis on losses could lead us to overlook important risk information arising from large positive returns. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weather Derivative Risk Measures for Extreme Events

We consider pricing weather derivatives for use as protection against weather extremes by using max-stable processes to estimate risk measures. These derivatives are not currently traded on any open markets, but their use could help some institutions manage weather risks from extreme events. The central challenge is to model the dependence of payments, which increases the risk of holding multiple weather derivatives. The method described utilizes results from spatial statistics and extreme value theory to first model extremes in the weather as a max-stable process, and then simulate payments for a general collection of weather derivatives. As the joint likelihood function for max-stable processes is unavailable, we use two approaches: The first is based on the composite likelihood, and the second is based on approximate Bayesian computing (ABC). Both capture the spatial dependence of payments. To incorporate parameter uncertainty into the pricing model, we use bootstrapping with the composite likelihood approach, while the ABC method naturally incorporates parameter uncertainty. We show that the additional risk from the spatial dependence of payments can be quite substantial, and that the methods discussed can compute standard actuarial risk measures in both a frequentist and Bayesian setting.     

商业银行操作风险的统计特征及其资本模拟实证

本文通过对近年我国发生的商业银行操作风险事件的统计,得出了我国商业银行操作风险的重要特征,包括:内部欺诈及其导致的操作风险损失所占比重最大,操作风险资本的顺经济周期效应表现明显,欺诈性操作风险与地区法治水平呈现背离走势等.在对操作风险事件各损失类型发生的频率和损失金额分布进行拟合的基础上,运用蒙特卡洛模拟方法对我国商业银行操作风险资本进行10 231次模拟计算,结果显示,在置信水平为99.9%的条件下,我国整个商业银行业在拨备了3 163亿元的操作风险资本以后,大致可以抵御150年所遭遇的全部操作风险损失带来的冲击.     

外商直接投资对中国国际收支影响的研究

外商直接投资（FDI）可以从多方面对一国的国际收支产生影响,包括对资本和金融账户的直接影响和对经常账户的间接影响。本文结合中国具体情况,利用1982-2009年的相关历史数据,通过建立贡献率指标,分析外商直接投资对国际收支产生的综合影响。结果显示,近年来,由于外商直接投资持续、大量的流入,不仅直接对国际收支产生正面影响,而且带动了出口快速增长,积累了巨额贸易顺差,成为导致国际收支失衡的重要因素之一。同时,撤资、利润汇出等负面效应所带来的国际收支风险也应被密切关注,尤其是在经济环境恶化时期。     

Optimal tax-timing and asset allocation when tax rebates on capital losses are limited

This article studies the portfolio problem with realization-based capital gain taxation when limited amounts of losses qualify for tax rebate payments, as is the case under current US tax law. When the tax rate applicable to realized losses exceeds that on realized capital gains, it can be optimal to realize capital gains immediately and pay capital gain taxes to regain the option to use potential future losses against a higher tax rate. This incentive adds an entirely new and as yet unstudied dimension to the portfolio problem. It causes risk averse investors to hold more equity and attain higher welfare levels than is the case when trading under a tax system that seeks to collect the same amount of taxes, but does not allow for tax rebate payments. This is because the benefit to these investors from having their losses subsidized is greater than the suffering from having profits taxed at a higher rate.     

The optimal timing of the transfer of hidden reserves in the German and Austrian tax systems

The lower-of-cost-or-market principle implies that assets may be sold above book value, by which hidden reserves are disclosed. To avoid taxation of these hidden reserves, in German-speaking countries companies are allowed to transfer them to a newly purchased asset within a fixed time period. In this paper, the optimal timing of hidden reserves transfers is developed with special attention to the term structure of interest rates and interest rate risk, and using the replicating principle known from the field of finance. The paper presents one model under certainty and, as a generalization of this model, another model under interest rate risk. In both models, the criterion used for decision-making is the value of the right to transfer, which can be interpreted as the initial cost of a replicating/hedging strategy for tax payments saved/incurred. In the model under certainty, the net present value concept is used to derive the value of the right to transfer. The procedure used in the model under interest rate risk is a combination of flexible planning and the no-arbitrage approach common in derivatives pricing. It is shown that the right to transfer hidden reserves with flexible timing is equivalent to an American-style exchange option. In addition, the impact of term-structure volatility on the value of the right to transfer is analyzed. The technique presented in this paper can also be used to solve other timing problems resulting from trade-offs between early and late tax payments/tax benefits. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Suspension of payments, bank failures, and the nonbank public's losses

We present evidence on the effects of suspensions of payments from an episode that is close to a controlled experiment for examining those effects. In 1861, about 44% of the banks in Wisconsin closed, 81% of the banks in Illinois closed, and noteholders suffered substantial losses. The historical record suggests that an effective suspension of payments in Wisconsin but not in Illinois may explain the difference. Our statistical evidence indicates that the suspension of payments increased the probability of a bank remaining open by about 21 percentage points and decreased noteholders’ losses by about 14 cents per dollar.     

Corporation tax asymmetries: effective tax rates and profit shifting

This paper examines the way in which the asymmetric treatment of losses within corporate tax codes can be expected to affect behavioural responses to changes in tax rates. The paper uses the concept of an equivalent tax function, raising the same present value of tax payments as the actual function, in which the effective rate on losses in any period, and thus the degree of asymmetry, is explicit. The influence on the elasticity of tax revenue with respect to the tax rate of this effective rate is then examined, where ‘loss-shifting’ occurs. Results suggest that estimates of the behavioural effect on tax revenues of changes in tax rates can be expected in general to be smaller in regimes which involve greater asymmetries in the tax treatment of losses. Importantly, as losses vary over the economic cycle, the model predicts that the asymmetric tax treatment generates effects on tax revenues that are non-linear between above-trend and below-trend parts of the cycle.     

Matching Severance Payments with Worker Losses in the Egyptian Public Sector

Severance pay programs can reduce political opposition and minimizethe social costs of labor redundancies. In Egypt, only voluntaryprograms are feasible because legal limitations preclude layoffsand strong organized labor groups oppose any weakening of jobsecurity protections. A common problem with voluntary severanceprograms, however, is that they tend to overpay workers relativeto the welfare losses they experience from displacement. This article estimates the losses that public sector workerswould incur if they were displaced from their jobs and simulatesseveral voluntary severance schemes to determine how well theschemes match compensation payments to these estimated losses.It provides a fairly strong argument for looking at the structureof opportunity costs and wage profiles when designing severanceprograms. It shows that significant overpayment can be avoidedby matching compensation payments to the expected losses ofworkers. It also provides a method for estimating these lossesfrom standard labor force surveys that are available in mostcountries.     

Fair value accounting for liabilities: The role of disclosures in unraveling the counterintuitive income statement effect from credit risk changes

When liabilities are accounted for at fair value, a deterioration of a company’s credit risk results in the reporting of an income statement gain; an improvement in a company’s credit risk results in a loss. Many argue that these income statement effects are counterintuitive and that financial statement-users are likely to misinterpret fair value gains as positive signals and fair value losses as negative signals. Utilizing an experiment with CPAs as participants, we find that these arguments are indeed valid. Specifically, we find that over 70% of the participants incorrectly assess a company’s credit risk as improving (deteriorating) when a fair value gain (loss) is recognized. We also find that disclosures that explicitly specify the relation between the direction of the credit risk change and the income statement effect significantly reduce participants’ misinterpretations, and are more beneficial when fair value gains versus losses are recognized. These findings provide empirical evidence in the debate over the recognition of company-specific credit risk changes and offer direction for improving disclosures in the area of fair value accounting.