Trade,Growth, and Environmental Quality*

This paper examines linkages between international trade, environmental degradation, and economic growth in a dynamic North–South trade game. Using a neoclassical production function subject to an endogenously improving technology, North produces manufactured goods by employing labor, capital, and a natural resource that it imports from South. South extracts the resource using raw labor, in the process generating local pollution. We study optimal regional policies in the presence of local pollution and technology spillovers from North to South under both non‐cooperative and cooperative modes of trade. Non‐cooperative trade is inefficient due to stock externalities. Cooperative trade policies are efficient and yet do not benefit North. Both regions gain from improved productivity in North and faster knowledge diffusion to South regardless of the trading regime.     

虚拟水贸易及其影响因素研究

由于水资源的分布不均和大量消耗,水资源短缺成为很多国家和地区经济社会发展的约束。虚拟水贸易作为一种解决水资源短缺的方式被提出,成为水资源研究领域的热点。以农产品的国际贸易为主体的虚拟水国际贸易也不仅仅涉及水资源的平衡问题,还涉及到很多政治、经济等因素。本文从政治、经济、社会、生态四方面对虚拟水贸易的影响因素进行分析,从而对虚拟水贸易展开研究。     

International trade of scarce water

Recent analyses of the evolution and structure of trade in virtual water revealed that the number of trade connections and volume of virtual water trade have more than doubled over the past two decades, and that developed countries increasingly import water embodied in goods from the rest of the world to alleviate pressure on domestic water resources. At the same time, as demand continues to increase and climate change threatens to alter hydrological cycles, water scarcity is a growing problem. Does research into virtual water trade need to consider water scarcity and differentiate flows out of water-scarce regions from flows out of water-abundant regions? Previous studies sum and compare virtual water volumes originating in countries experiencing vastly different degrees of water scarcity. We therefore incorporate water scarcity into an assessment of global virtual water flows. We use input–output analysis to include indirect virtual water flows. We find that the structure of global virtual water networks changes significantly after adjusting for water scarcity.     

European Agricultural Biotechnology Preferences and Policy: Growth and Trade Implications

European Union policies effectively prohibit the production and consumption of genetically modified agricultural products. This paper examines the prohibition's effects on research and development, innovation, trade flows, and economic growth using a Heckscher–Ohlin–Samuelson trade model with a neo‐ Schumpeterian approach. Restrictive European Union policies on biotechnology production and consumption result in: an effective export subsidy of capital to the South; changing trade flows; North America being the dominant producer of biotechnology research and development; the South being a dominant producer of biotechnology products; and the European Union being the dominant producer of traditional agricultural products.     

Are virtual water “flows” in Spanish grain trade consistent with relative water scarcity?

Virtual water adds a new dimension to international trade, and brings along a new perspective about water scarcity and water resource management. Most virtual water literature has focused on quantifying virtual water “flows” and on its application to ensure water and food security. Nevertheless, the analysis of the potential gains from international trade, at least from a water resources perspective, needs to take into account both spatial and temporal variations of blue (groundwater and stream flow) and green (soil moisture) water, as well as the socioeconomic and policy conditions. This paper evaluates whether Spanish international trade with grains is consistent with relative water scarcity. For this purpose, the study estimates the volume and economic value of virtual water “flow” through international grain trade for the period 1997-2005, which includes 3 years with different rainfall levels. The calculations show that Spain is a net virtual water “importer” through international grain trade. The volume of net virtual water “imports” amounts to 3420, 4383 and 8415 million m³ in wet (1997), medium (1999) and dry (2005) years, respectively. Valuing blue water at its shadow price or scarcity value, blue water “exports” oscillate between 0.7 and 34.2 million Euros for a wet and dry year, respectively. Overall, grain trade is apparently consistent with relative water scarcity as net imports increase in dry years. However, the evolution of grain exports, expressed as a variation in quantity and volume, does not match the variations in resource scarcity. A disaggregated crop analysis reveals that there are other factors, such as quality, product specialization or the demand for a standardized product, which also influence trade decisions and are not included in the notion of virtual water. These facts, among others, can therefore create potential distortions in the application of virtual water to the analysis of specific trade patterns. Nevertheless, from a water resources perspective, virtual water can bring important insights across countries for improving water and land management globally, fostering adaptation strategies to climate change and to transboundary resource management.     

Resource abundance and regional development in China1

Over the past several decades, China has made tremendous progress in market integration and infrastructure development. Demand for natural resources has increased from the booming coastal economies, causing the terms of trade to favour the resource sector, which is predominantly based in the interior regions of the country. However, the gap in economic development level between the coastal and inland regions has widened significantly. In this paper, using a panel dataset at the provincial level, we show that Chinese provinces with abundant resources perform worse than their resource‐poor counterparts in terms of per capita consumption growth. This trend that resource‐poor areas are better off than resource‐rich areas is particularly prominent in rural areas. Because of the institutional arrangements regarding property rights of natural resources, most gains from the resource boom have been captured either by the government‐ or state‐owned enterprises. Thus, the windfall of natural resources has more to do with government consumption than household consumption. Moreover, in resource‐rich areas, greater revenues accrued from natural resources bid up the price of non‐tradable goods and hurt the competitiveness of the local economy.     

DOES THE GRAVITY MODEL EXPLAIN SOUTH KOREA'S TRADE FLOWS?*

This paper applies the gravity model to explain South Korea's bilateral trade flows and to extract practical trade policy applications. A trade structure and an Asian‐Pacific trade network are included in the gravity equation to characterize the peculiarity of South Korea's trade patterns. The empirical result shows that South Korea's trade follows a Heckscher–Ohlin model more than an increasing returns or a product differentiation model. South Korea has large unrealized trade potentials with Japan and China, suggesting that they are desirable partners for an FTA. North–South Korean trade will expand markedly if bilateral relation normalizes and North Korea participates in APEC.     

中国新型工业化进程的区域比较研究

文章以分析我国区域新型工业化发展水平为核心,通过构建反映新型工业化发展状况的指标体系,并运用因子分析和聚类分析的方法,对我国除西藏外的30个省、市(自治区)的新型工业化发展水平进行实证分析,得出我国区域新型工业化进程的大致情况,发现我国区域新型工业化进程方面存在的问题及差距,据此提出适合区域新型工业化发展的模式。     

虚拟资源在我国粮食问题中的综合应用分析

本文在参照虚拟水概念基础上,引用了虚拟土、虚拟能概念,提出了虚拟资源概念。对2003年南北方主要以粮食为载体的虚拟水、虚拟土、虚拟能含量进行了量化分析与实证研究,得出北方粮食虚拟水含量高于南方0．18m3／kg,并且每万吨粮食需要多占用0．6亩土地,只在虚拟能消耗上略低于南方0．01吨标煤／吨。2003年在国内粮食理想平衡状态下,南方须从北方调入2964．5万吨粮食以填补需求缺口,相当于从北方携带了655．2亿立方米虚拟水、7411万公顷虚拟土和1041．8万吨标煤的虚拟资源。这在一定时期内平衡了地区粮食的供求,可这能否在全国范围内实现资源的最优配置还值得商榷。     

North–South Trade and Pollution Migration: The Debate Revisited

The paper examines the effect of freer North–South trade in goods on pollution, commodity terms-of-trade and national welfare, utilizing a factor endowment framework. North and South are distinguished in terms of the relative endowment of a pollution causing natural resource: South is relatively more resource abundant. Compared to the analysis of Copeland and Taylor (1994)—which is the central work so far on this subject—this paper internalizes the commodity terms-of-trade impact of individual environment policies. It is derived that if countries specialize completely in the free-trade equilibrium, both are induced to reduce their pollution as compared to autarky. It is interesting and paradoxical that the South also reduces its pollution, despite specializing in the pollution-intensive good. Again, contrary to common perception, free trade may entail an overall terms-of-trade loss for the North, while South will always have a positive change in the terms-of-trade. Finally, inspite of better environment, free trade may cause both the countries to gain or lose in terms of aggregate welfare. This research has benefitted from comments received at the conference on International Dimension of Environment Policy organized by the European Science Foundation and Tilburg University, October 7–12, 2000 Kerkrade, The Netherlands and the International Conference on Environment and Development organized by CITD, School of International Studies, JNU, April 7–8, 2005, New Delhi, India, as well as those received from two anonymous referees. A small section of this research was published in Mehra and Das (2002).     

Analyses of water footprint of Beijing in an interregional input-output framework

Beijing is under severe water resource pressure due to the rapid economic development and growing population. This study quantitatively evaluates the water footprint of Beijing in an interregional input-output framework with a focus on blue water resources and uses. The inter-connections of water resources between Beijing and other provinces are analyzed with a sectoral specification. The results show that the total water footprint of Beijing is 4498.4 10⁶ m³/year, of which 51% is from the external water footprint acquired through virtual water import. Agriculture has the highest water footprint of 1524.5 10⁶ m³/year with 56% coming from external sources. The main virtual water provider for Beijing is Hebei, another water scarce region, from which Beijing receives virtual water of 373.3 10⁶ m³/year with 40% from agriculture. The results of this study suggest that the interregional trade coordination, especially for the main sectors with high water use intensity, is important for enhancing the efficiency of regional and national water resource utilization.     

Water trade in Andalusia. Virtual water: An alternative way to manage water use

The main idea of this paper is to analyse the relationships between the productive process and the commercial trade with water resources used by them. For that, the first goal is to find out, by means of the estimation of virtual water, the exported crops which have the highest water consumption. Similarly, we analyse the crops that are imported and therefore, might contribute to save water. The second objective is to put forward new ways to save water by means of the virtual water trade.This first conclusion contradicts not only the comparative advantages theory but also the environmental sustainability logic. The previous conclusion is derived from the great exports of water via potatoes and vegetables, and also via citrus fruit and orchards; and, on the other hand, from the imports, such as cereals and arable crops, with lower water requirements. The second conclusion affirms as Andalusia utilises large amounts of water in its exports, and in turn, it does not produce goods with low water requirements, the potential saving would be very significant if the terms of our trade were the other way round. We are convinced that the agricultural sector must modify the use of water to a great extent in order to reach significant water savings and an environmental sustainability path.     

中国与东北亚各国和地区农业资源整合前景

处于发展更低阶段的中国 ,与高收入东北亚国家和地区整合农业资源 ,实行区域经济一体化 ,是各方的根本利益所在。各国和地区农业与非农产业间的水平分工 ,农业的垂直分工 ,是现阶段农业资源整合的具体形式。这需要各方、主要是高收入国家和地区的农业集团克服短视 ,推动贸易—投资自由化。     

水资源税费改革：国外实践与我国选择

随着全球水污染问题的日益严峻,作为环境保护与补偿恢复的经济手段之一,水资源税收制度对水资源综合利用和污染防治具有一定成效,获得许多国家的青睐。基于俄罗斯、荷兰和巴西三国的水资源税费实践与经验,分析我国水资源收费制度存在的问题及费改税的可行性,提出构建我国水资源税收制度的设想。     

Open-access renewable resources and pollution: Trade and policy implications in a two-country model

We examine the interaction between the relative inter-industry pollution externality and resource stock externality of harvesting in deciding trade patterns and welfare gains from trade in a two-country model (less-developed countries) with renewable resources in the absence of resource management. This paper focuses on the impacts of trade policies on resource conservation and welfare outcomes in two countries with different environmental management regimes. Differences in pollution management standards between both countries determine the direction of trade flow and gains from trade in a diversified production case. The country with a lower pollution intensity parameter, an exporter of resource goods, certainly experiences welfare loss in the post-trade steady-state and may also suffer a decline in utility throughout the transition path. However, a country with higher pollution intensity and importers of resource goods tend to gain from trade. Under national open-access resources, given that pollution is regulated up to a certain point in both countries, this study finds that implementing better restrictions on only one externality factor is not optimal from a post-trade welfare perspective. Lastly, from the point of view of policy suggestion, this paper offers an optimal trade policy that the economic and environmental effects of enforcing import tax on resource goods are likely to be Pareto-improving consequences compared to the implications of using an export tax.     

On the North-South trade in the Americas and its ecological asymmetries

There has been a long and intensive debate within the scientific community about the role of international trade in the development of countries. During the last decades, the focus of attention has moved from the pure economic level to the environmental aspects of international trade. Establishing a simplified system of North-South trade for one reference period (2003), this paper attempts to test empirically the extent of potential asymmetries with regard to extracted material flows, and contrasts the results with the economic benefits from trade (in terms of value-added). The South is thereby represented by a selection of Latin American countries (Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador and Mexico), the North comprises one of their main commercial partners, the United States. At the methodological level, a multi-regional input-output analysis is used as the tool of investigation. Results generally support the hypothesis that the South was feeding the North's societal metabolism. South-North material exports were 1.6 times larger than North-South material exports, resulting in a net deficit for the South of 324 million tons. Moreover, material intensity of exported commodities from the South was twice as high as that from the North. It is worth highlighting, however, that part of the North-South hypothesis fails for the sample of countries since the larger part of the economic surplus has remained in the South, contrarily to what would have been expected.     

North–South trade and income inequality

This paper investigates the effects of North–South trade on international income inequality. While empirical studies suggest that trade liberalization encourages income convergence and reduces the per capita income gap between poor and rich countries, North–South trade is shown to increase the income gap between the two regions. On the other hand, trade liberalization by either region increases the welfare of both regions, and does not necessarily reduce the gap in “real income” or utility.     

Do South–South preferential trade agreements undermine the prospects for multilateral free trade?

Due to trade diversion, there have been concerns expressed over the proliferation of preferential trade agreements (PTAs) that include South countries. In this paper, we compare welfare across different geographic configurations of bilateral free trade agreements (FTAs) and customs unions (CUs) and examine their implications for the stability of multilateral free trade. While North–North PTAs do tend to yield higher global welfare than South–South PTAs, a single South–South FTA may make free trade more sustainable than any other single agreement. With pre‐existing North–North agreements and a large enough cost asymmetry between regions, an additional South member or a new South–South agreement always makes free trade harder to sustain.     

对外贸易、FDI的经济增长效应与环境污染效应实证研究

外贸与FDI都在整体上促进了中国经济增长,其中,进口对经济增长的作用较小;出口与FDI加剧了中国环境污染;进口贸易可抑制环境污染,但作用比较小;人力资本具有显著的促进经济增长与抑制环境污染的双重功能。