Economic impacts of the Natural Forest Protection Program in Yunnan Province, China： an input-output analysis

The paper assesses the economic impacts of the natural forest protection program （NFPP） on the economy of Yunnan Province, China.in terms of gross output, value added,employment, and household income. An inputoutput model is developed to estimate NFPP＇s economic impacts by means of backward linkages in the forestry sector and logging and haudage sector. It is found than the NFPP has positive impacts on gross output, value added and houschold income in the initial year, but has significantly negative impacts on the regional economy in the following years as the investment decreases.     

The coordination of regional interest in developing river basin

1. IntroductionRiver basin is a typical natural region andcatchments of rivers or water systems, which takes ariver as its central line and is surrounded by dividingwater line, and it is an independent, self-systemic hy-drology unit from source to mouth of river with spe-cific scope in region. River basin is a special kind ofregion, in which all-natural factors have close relationwith each other and there is remarkable influence be-tween inter-regions, especially between upper andlower reaches…     

The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty

This study explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in four countries or regions (China, Japan, Europe, and the United States) on the contagion risk of investments in the global stock market. The stock returns of 22 stock markets worldwide are analyzed to determine which region’s EPU exhibits the greatest effect on regional systematic risk in the global stock market and on volatility risk in individual stock markets. First, all of the samples, the markets of different continents and the spillover indices of the developed and emerging markets, are calculated to observe the dynamic correlation among these markets with the aim of quantifying regional systematic risk and further examining the contagion risk effect of EPU. The results indicate the following: EPU in China is the most influential, and its contagion risk spreads to different regional markets, except for Europe; the effect of EPU in the United States is inferior to that in China; EPU in Japan merely influences contagion risk in emerging markets; contagion risk in European markets is not influenced by the four EPU indices; and EPU in Europe is not influenced by contagion risk in the global stock market. However, according to the volatility risk in each market, the EPU in Europe and China respectively influence Asian countries and European countries the most. These results may be attributable to the extremely high trade dependence among these countries because the performance of international enterprises is mainly determined by the economic policies of their trading partners.     

Trade effects of regional integration: A panel cointegration analysis

The paper quantifies the most likely trade effects of the exceptional cases of the GATT/WTO system, namely, Regional Integration Agreements, on the selected member as well as non-member countries of the EU, NAFTA, MERCOSUR and AFTA. To this end, the gravity model was estimated through fixed effects model and panel cointegration analysis. It was found that the explanatory power of the latter has superseded the former one. For the case of EU, it was found that the intra-union trade-creation effect is approximately six times larger than extra-union effects. In NAFTA, exports to outside countries are significantly diverted. For MERCOSUR, on the other hand, results indicate that the integration has not contributed to intra-union trade. The members are still significantly dependent on extra-union imports, just like the members of AFTA.     

北京奥运会投资对中国经济的拉动影响——基于区域间投入产出模型的分析

本文建立了一个反映我国地区间经济联系及相互影响的区域间投入产出模型,在此基础上对北京与周边和我国其它区域的区域间经济联系进行了分析,然后测算奥运会投资对这三个区域经济的拉动影响。结果显示,我国区域之间的经济联系紧密,是地区经济发展的重要支撑因素。奥运会投资拉动北京经济2002—2007年均多增长约2个百分点;同时,奥运会投资具有较强的溢出效应,带动北京之外地区经济发展的作用大于对北京经济的贡献。     

The economic impact of shale gas extraction: A review of existing studies

Recent advances in drilling technology have allowed for the profitable extraction of natural gas from deep underground shale rock formations. Several reports sponsored by the gas industry have estimated the economic effects of the shale gas extraction on incomes, employment, and tax revenues. None of these reports has been published in an economics journal and therefore have not been subjected to the peer review process. Yet these reports may be influential to the formation of public policy. This commentary provides written reviews of several studies purporting to estimate the economic impact of gas extraction from shale beds. Due to questionable assumptions, the economic impacts estimated in these reports are very likely overstated.     

The effect of NAFTA on internal migration in Mexico: a regional economic analysis

Trade facilitates growth in some regions of a country while shrinking others, and therefore to benefit from trade, labour may need to be able to migrate. This mobility is particularly crucial in a developing country with high income inequality like Mexico. We seek to answer the following questions: What characteristics facilitate or hinder that internal migration? Has trade liberalization changed the pattern of internal migration in Mexico? We first predict regional economic growth resulting from changes in Mexico-US tariffs by sector. We find that trade liberalization appears to have largely benefited the manufacturing sector. Next, using a spatial gravity model of migration, we find that while economic growth from trade openness drew workers to urban regions in the northern Border States of Mexico, much of the trade-driven migration occurred before NAFTA. Second, contrary to popular belief, migration from largely rural states appears to have decreased since NAFTA. We also find evidence that migration to the United States increased after NAFTA. Last, we find that income disparity in both the destination and origin region deters migration and that this effect increases after NAFTA. Thus, we see evidence that within-region income disparity can hinder migration, potentially exacerbating income disparity among regions.     

Persistence of economic uncertainty: a comprehensive analysis

One of the most heavily researched and cited issue in applied economics is the relationship of uncertainty indices with the financial and macroeconomic variables. While the statistical features of financial and macroeconomic variables have been thoroughly examined, virtually nothing has been done to examine uncertainty indices under the statistical perspective. In this paper, we focus on two primary characteristics of uncertainty indices: persistence and chaotic behaviour. In order to evaluate the persistence and the chaotic behaviour we analyse 72 popular uncertainty indices constructed by forecasting models, text mining from news articles and data mining from monetary variables to measure the Hurst and Lyapunov exponents in rolling windows. The examination in rolling windows provides a dynamic evaluation of the specific characteristics revealing significant variations of persistence and chaotic dynamics with time. More specifically, we find that almost all uncertainty indices are persistent, while the chaotic dynamics are detected only sporadically and for certain indices during recessions of economic turbulence. Thus, we suggest that the examination of persistence and chaos should be a prerequisite step before using uncertainty indices in economic policy models.     

The effects of land market development on economic growth： an empirical analysis based on Chinese panel data, 1999-2005

Optimized land resources allocation is important for economic growth because land is one of the basic elements for economic development. And urban land resources allocation has had an increasingly important influence since the Chinese socialist market economy system was established. This paper estimates the production function of both the secondary and the tertiary industries of China＇s 31 provinces, autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the central government through an analysis of the panel data of the total output value of the secondary and the tertiary industries, invested capital, invested labor jorces and the land market-jeatured management of the above-mentioned regions during the period of 1999-2005. and examines the positive influence of the above- mentioned factors on regional economic output, This study concludes that urban economic output is positively related with the level of urban land resources market-featured management, since the rate of economic growth of those regions approximates 14. 7% under the condition of urban land market running during the period of 1999-2005.     

On the economic impacts of COVID-19: A text mining literature analysis

The COVID-19 outbreak has affected everyday lives worldwide. As governments started to implement confinement and business closure measures, the economic impact was felt by entire societies immediately. The urgency of such a theme has led researchers to study the phenomenon. Accordingly, the purpose of this research is to provide the state of the art on relevant dimensions and hot topics of research to understand the economic impacts of COVID-19. In this survey, we conduct a text mining analysis of 301 articles published during 2020 which analyzed such economic impacts. By defining a set of relevant dimensions grounded on existing literature, we were able to extract a set of coherent topics that aggregate the collected articles, characterized by the predominance of a few sets of dimensions. We found that the impact on “financial markets” was widely studied, especially in relation to Asia. Next, we found a more diverse range of themes analyzed in Europe, from “government measures” to “macroeconomic variables.” We also discovered that America has not received the same degree of attention, and “institutions,” “Africa,” or “other pandemics” were studied less. We anticipate that future research will proliferate focusing on several themes, from environmental issues to the effectiveness of government measures.     

General equilibrium modelling of the direct and indirect economic impacts of water quality improvements in the Netherlands at national and river basin scale

The main objective of the study presented in this paper is to estimate the direct and indirect economic impacts of water quality policy scenarios in the Netherlands focusing on the reduction of emission levels of nutrients and a number of eco-toxicological substances. For this purpose, an Applied General Equilibrium (AGE) model consisting of 27 production sectors is extended to water through the inclusion of substitution elasticities between labour, capital and emissions to water in the sectors' production functions. The macro-economic costs of a 10, 20 and 50% reduction of the emission levels in the year 2000 of ten priority substances in the EU Water Framework Directive vary between 0.2 and 9.4% of Net National Income (NNI). A large share of the total economic costs are borne by important sources of pollution like commercial shipping, the chemical and metal industry. However, important spin-off effects due to adaptation take place in the tertiary service sector. Besides the estimation of the economy-wide impacts of water quality improvements, the novelty of the study presented here is found in the downscaling of national and sector results to river basin level and the estimation of shadow prices for water-polluting substances through the introduction of an emission permits market.     

The interaction effect of economic freedom and democracy on corruption: A panel cross-country analysis

This paper examines the effects of economic freedom, democracy and its interaction term on controlling corruption. Interactive results indicate that economic freedom and democracy significantly combat corruption. Economic freedom reduces corruption in any political environment. Democracy increases corruption when economic liberalization is low.     

中国地区性行政垄断与区域经济绩效——基于工具变量法的实证研究

在我国,地方官员间的晋升竞争和行政权力所带来的地下经济收益,都会导致地区性行政垄断的出现。地区性行政垄断变量因而会受到GDP、地方财税水平等政绩指标和企业经济指标的影响,并在OLS回归估计中表现出内生性问题。文章构建了一个省级面板数据计量模型,以工具变量法对地区性行政垄断的区域经济绩效及其内生性问题进行实证检验。结果发现:地区性行政垄断损害了4个方面的区域经济绩效——生产效率、资本配置效率、技术创新能力以及国际竞争力。由于地区性行政垄断这种地方官员行为在一定程度上内生于经济系统,以往常用的OLS估计可能会低估地区性行政垄断的危害性。     

Oil consumption and economic efficiency: A comparative analysis of advanced, developing and emerging economies

This paper investigates the economic efficiency-oil consumption relationship in 42 countries during the period 1986-2006. In a first stage by using DEA window analysis countries' economic efficiencies are obtained. In a second stage an econometric analysis based on robust GMM estimators reveals an inverted ‘U’-shape relationship between oil consumption and economic efficiency. In order to capture heterogeneities among countries' development stages the analysis has been separated into two groups (advanced economies and developing/emerging economies). The results show that advanced economies have much higher turning points compared to emerging and developing economies. It appears that oil consumption increases countries' economic efficiency. In addition the consumption patterns of oil products and its derivatives have changed through years and among countries. The different turning points from the econometric analysis indicate the dependence of oil consumption in advanced economies (higher turning points) is driven mainly by household purchasing activities and their standards of living (transport, housing and water, food, etc.). Finally, it appears that oil consumption is the main driver behind the progress of industrialization and urbanization regardless of the country's development stage.     

The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil,Chile, and Peru

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries.     

The effects of economic freedom on FDI inflows: an empirical analysis

There is a regular emphasis on the significant role of inward Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in promoting economic growth. This favourable relationship has induced many governments to adopt policies intended to increase FDI inflows and, thereby, to create conducive business and economic conditions for Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). This paper examines the effects of Economic Freedom (EF) and its sub-components reflecting the Quality of Institutions (QIs) on FDI inflows, using indices derived from the Fraser Institute and from the Heritage Foundation. The empirical analysis is carried out for a panel dataset using different econometric methodologies and empirical specifications. The results underline positive effects of EF on FDI inflows. They reveal that EF sub-components have varying impacts on FDI inflows, where rule of law, market openness, and less-restrictive regulatory environment stand out as the major FDI-promoting institutional factors. Also, there is an empirical evidence that the effects of EF sub-components on FDI inflows exhibit variations through the economic characteristics of the host countries and across geo-economic regions. The results suggest that governments should pursue EF-improving policies, which should be tailored according to the economic and geo-economic characteristics of the host countries, to increase FDI inflows.     

The effects of economic policy uncertainty on China’s economy: evidence from time-varying parameter FAVAR

ABSTRACT

This article explores the effects of China’s economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on its fiscal policy, monetary policy and a wide range of macro-economic variables using a time-varying parameter FAVAR model. Based on monthly data from 07/2003 to 08/2017, the time-varying structure of the model allows us to capture the time-varying characteristics of the macro-economic variables and which channel is relevant. Empirical results reveal that the reaction of monetary and fiscal policies to EPU is highly asymmetric across macro-economic circumstances. Loose monetary and fiscal policies are adopted in response to EPU shocks during the financial crisis, while policies are moderately tightened after the crisis. The China Interbank Offered Rate (Chibor) responds more sensitively and severely than M2 to EPU shocks. Additionally, EPU shocks have a significant and negative impact on economic growth, consumption, exchange rates, bonds and the stock market, but showing a positive impact on credit, real estate and fixed asset investment (which might be due to China’s special economic market environment and the high investment return). The results indicate that EPU shocks significantly affect macroeconomic fundamentals through precautionary savings and financial market channels but lose their effectiveness through a ‘real options’ effect.     

Decentralization,social capital,and regional growth: The case of the Italian North-South divide

This paper aims to show how a region's constant level of social capital may have a very different impact on its economic growth depending on whether the central or the local level of government is responsible for regional policy.Our case study is the economic performance of Northern and Southern Italy in the post-World War II period, when a long phase of regional convergence came to a sudden halt in the early 1970s. We focus on the economic effects of the 1970s institutional reforms on government decentralization and wage bargaining. Our main hypothesis is that decentralization allocates the provision of public capital to institutions, the local ones, more exposed to a territory's social capital. Since social capital is lower in the Southern regions, decentralization made their developmental policies less effective from 1970 onwards, and regional inequality increased.We build an endogenous growth model augmented to include the interaction between social capital and public investment as well as the reform of the Italian labour market. We calibrate our model using data of the Italian regions for 1951–71. Our quantitative results indicate that decentralization triggered the influence of local social capital on growth and played a central role in halting the convergence path of the low-social-capital regions.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 1: A technical note on combining input-output and ecological footprint analysis

In recent years there have been a number of attempts to develop a more comprehensive approach to the issue of measuring resource use and/or pollution generation embodied in trade flows, including contributions that combine input-output techniques and Ecological Footprint analysis. In this two-part paper we describe how to enumerate the resource and/or pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows (Part 1) and we present a literature review of recent methodological and empirical developments (Part 2). It is straightforward in principle to extend the basic input-output approach to capture international trade flows. However, in practice, problems of data availability and compatibility, and of computability of extended input-output matrices, mean that simplifying assumptions are generally applied, but with the implications of these assumptions often not made fully explicit. What appears to be absent from previous applications is an account of the analytical method by which Ecological Footprints should ideally be estimated in an international input-output accounting analysis. This allows an explicit analysis of the problems that prevent the application of the full method and identification of the most appropriate short-cut methods in a transparent way. The objective of this paper is to provide such an account.     

Examining the global environmental impact of regional consumption activities — Part 2: Review of input-output models for the assessment of environmental impacts embodied in trade

This paper offers a detailed review of recently described single- and multi-region input-output models used to assess environmental impacts of internationally traded goods and services. It is the second part of a two-part contribution. In Part 1 [Turner, K., Lenzen, M., Wiedmann, T. and Barrett, J. in press. Examining the Global Environmental Impact of Regional Consumption Activities — Part 1: A Technical Note on Combining Input-Output and Ecological Footprint Analysis; Ecological Economics.] we describe how to enumerate the resource and pollution content of inter-regional and inter-national trade flows with the aim to illustrate an ideal accounting and modelling framework for the estimation of Ecological Footprints.A large number of such environment-economic models have been described but only in the last few years models have emerged that use a more sophisticated multi-region, multi-sector input-output framework. This has been made possible through improvements in data availability and quality as well as computability. We identify six major models that employ multi-sector, multi-region input-output analysis in order to calculate environmental impacts embodied in international trade. Results from the reviewed studies demonstrate that it is important to explicitly consider the production recipe, land and energy use as well as emissions in a multi-region, multi-sector and multi-directional trade model with global coverage and detailed sector disaggregation. Only then reliable figures for indicators of impacts embodied in trade, such as the Ecological Footprint, can be derived.