The economics of biotechnology under ecosystem disruption

Economic analysis of chemical pesticide use has shown that the interactions between plants, pests, damage control technology and state of the ecosystem are important variables to be considered. Hence, a bio-economic model was developed for the assessment of Bt variety and pesticide-based control strategies of the cotton-bollworm in China. The model simulates plant growth, the dynamics of pest populations and of natural enemies. The model predictions are used as major inputs for a stochastic micro-level profit model of alternative control strategies.Results show that: (1) productivity effects of Bt varieties and pesticide use depend on the action of natural control agents, and (2) the profitability of damage control measures increases with the severity of ecosystem disruption. The findings highlight the importance of the choice of the counterfactual scenario in the assessment of the impact of agricultural biotechnology. Also, some doubts are raised whether the high benefits of Bt cotton varieties claimed by previous studies based on cross section comparisons are realistic.     

Defining viable recovery paths toward sustainable fisheries

This paper develops a formal analysis of the recovery process for a fishery, from crisis situations to desired levels of sustainable exploitation, using the theoretical framework of viable control. We define sustainability as a combination of biological, economic and social constraints which need to be met for a viable fishery to exist. Biological constraints are based on the definition of a minimum resource stock to be preserved. Economic constraints relate to the existence of a guaranteed profit per vessel. Social constraints refer to the maintenance of a minimum size of the fleet, and to the maximum speed at which fleet adjustment can take place. Using fleet size adjustment and fishing effort per vessel as control variables, we first identify the states of this bioeconomic system for which sustainable exploitation is possible, i.e. for which all constraints can be dynamically met. Such favorable states are called viable states. We then examine possible transition phases, from non-viable to viable states. We characterize recovery paths with respect to the time of crisis of the trajectory, which is the number of periods during which the constraints are not respected. The approach is applied to the single stock of the bay of Biscay Nephrops fishery. The transition path identified through the viability approach is compared to the historical recovery process, and to both open-access and optimal harvesting scenarios.     

Fishery externalities and biodiversity: Trade-offs between the viability of shrimp trawling and the conservation of Frigatebirds in French Guiana

Sustainable management of natural resources, and in particular fisheries, must take into account several conflicting objectives. This is the case in the French Guiana shrimp fishery for which profitability objectives imply a reduction in the fishing activity. On the one hand, this fishery has negative externalities on marine biodiversity due to discards. On the other hand, this fishery has positive externalities on the economy of the local community and interestingly enough on a protected seabird species in the area (the Frigatebird that feeds on discards). In this paper, we examine the viability of that system considering two sustainability objectives: an economic objective in terms of the profitability of the fishing activity, and a conservation objective in terms of the Frigatebird population. For that purpose, we have developed a dynamic model of that bioeconomic system and study here the trade-offs between the two conflicting objectives. It provides a means to quantify the necessary give and takes involving the economic and ecological objectives that would ensure a viable management solution. Our study confirms the relevance of the viability approach to address natural resource management issues, which should lead to the development of new tools for the arbitration of conflicting sustainability objectives. In particular, such tools could be used as a quantitative basis for cost–benefit analysis taking into account environmental externalities.     

我国林产品贸易与森林生态研究综述

在我国日益成为世界主要林产品生产和对外贸易大国,人均森林资源严重不足、森林生态十分脆弱、林产品贸易与气候关系被世界各国密切关注的背景下,文章从林产品贸易与森林资源的关系、林产品贸易和森林生态安全的关系、森林资源与森林生态的关系及林产品贸易和碳排放的关系等方面,总结了有关林产品贸易和我国森林资源及生态关系文献的研究概况,之后从理论创新、数据类型和概念界定、方程设定和回归估计方法等方面分析了现有相关研究文献的特点,最后从林产品贸易和森林资源、生态关系相关研究文献的研究方法、研究结论、研究前提、研究视角、研究范畴等方面做了评论,并且从国际贸易学、生态学、系统动力学、系统论等研究技术和方法、Ec—Re—En系统模型设计、耦合理论和仿真技术等方面,对我国林产品贸易安全与森林生态关系未来的研究方向做了展望。     

Forest sustainability and trade policies

Many analyses of trade and environment have concluded that trade liberalization is Pareto improvement with Pigovian tax systems even when production and consumption processes bring non-market externalities. But in case of global forest issue there are many accusations that the trade liberalization of forest products has caused the degradation of forest sustainability. In this paper we try to explain the gap between the theory and the real situation from theoretical point of view. We will analyze comprehensively about free trade and forest sustainability by partial and general equilibrium analyses. Pigovian systems work well under the assumption of complete substitutivity of consumption between external effects and marketable commodities. If it were not satisfied, it is inevitable to levy import tariff or to take some domestic price support systems to guide the production point into sustainable forests.     

Biodiversity value and the optimal location of forest conservation sites in Southern Finland

Safeguarding biodiversity has been one of the most important issues in environmental and forest policies since the 1990s. In Southern Finland, decisions concerning further actions for the preservation of forest biodiversity will be made in the coming years. To support policy making, we present a multi-regional model that is applicable in determining the economically optimal regional allocation of conservation sites. Three habitat quality models are evaluated to calculate habitat quality indices used as a surrogate for a biodiversity value in a forest sector model. The scenarios presented provide information about the economic impacts of conservation choices on the forest sector. The overall economic impacts of conservation depend on its scale and regional allocation. Conserving land with high biodiversity value can have less adverse impact on the forest sector than conservation of typical commercial forest sites. When optimizing conservation set-asides, we found that set-asides targeted to certain regions possessing higher/lower than average relative share of ecologically valuable land, caused lower/higher adverse economic impacts on the forest sector. Because it is expensive to search land suitable for conservation, these regions could be respectively favoured/avoided when asking forest owners to offer their land for the new conservation program in Southern Finland, which will be based on voluntariness.     

张家界国家森林公园生态安全管理模式探析

以张家界国家森林公园为例,分析其生态安全管理存在的主要问题,提出了以下生态安全管理对策:将环境管理纳入公园管理体系;健全森林公园旅游教育和培训体系,加强旅游从业人员、游客的生态环境教育,建立森林公园环境解译系统和学术型团队引领其旅游开发管理来完善生态环境教育体系;建立长期定位的环境监测保护体系,生物多样性保护和生态系统健康管理体系和完善自然灾害防治体系来构建生态环境监测预警体系;完善公园的政策法规和加强执法的监督来完善法律保障体系;发行生态彩票和民间资本融资方式来构建多渠道的生态环保资金筹措体系。     

Culture phenomenon analysis on the forest tour activity of China

1. Introduction The forest tour is the mankind’s returning to the forest and nature and the mankind’s aesthetic emo tion of the forest. Our country is still relatively defi cient in the culture phenomenon of forest tour tha is studied at present. This paper tries to analyze the cultural factors of the forest tourist activity in terms of culture. 1.1 Culture connotation In Chinese “Wen” means a variety of lamination that is interlock, and “Hua” means that changes eas ily or brings good …     

Reversing deforestation? Bioenergy and society in two Brazilian models

Year after year, the deforestation rates in Brazil are alarming and this country is one of largest consumers of biomass energy in the world. In order to respond to this scenario, Brazil has developed a vast forest potential that, by the other hand, has attracted the attention of environmental groups that struggle to reduce the establishment of large-scale exotic species plantations. To respond to both pressures (the productive and environmental), the non-governmental and the private sectors have developed two innovative and independent forms of social participation for addressing this matter. The non-governmental sector created the Forest Replacement Associations and the private companies created the Small-Farmers Forest Partners Program. An overview and an analysis of both models is presented here.     

矩阵模型的决策适度性分析方法

决策适度性分析是主动性决策理论中一大类定量研究方法的总称,本文讨论矩阵决策模型的三种可用于决策适度性分析的方法。     

项目管理的新方法:从设计结构矩阵到领域配置矩阵

一个项目至少包括5个领域：产品（或服务）域、流程域、组织域、工具域和目标域,这5个领域都是由相互联系的要素或活动组成的。作为新兴的项目管理工具,领域配置矩阵（Domain Mapping Matrix,DMM）发展了传统的设计结构矩阵（Design Structure Matrix,DSM）分析方法,将项目管理的不同域联系起来,用以分析复杂活动的联系。本文通过比较DMM与DSM,凸显了DMM的优点,即DMM分析可以应用于复杂的、动态的项目,可以进行跨领域要素或活动的追溯,能够给管理人员提供了一个跨领域学习和交流的平台,提高项目管理决策的正确性。     

Combining Contingent Valuation and Choice Experiments. A Forestry Application in Spain

When many good variants are to be valued, like in several forest management programs which differ in the attribute levels, the Contingent Valuation Method may not be a practical option, given the cost and time involved to value each variant separately. There are at least three alternative procedures in such situations. One (i) is to apply an attribute based valuation method like a Choice Experiment (CE); another (ii) is to conduct a CVM and a CE exercise and estimate a joint model; a third one (iii) is to use the CVM estimates to value a base scenario, and then use the CE results to adjust the CVM estimates for any new different scenario. A numerical simulation and an empirical application to an afforestation program in Spain show that the latter is the procedure that yields closer values to the CVM estimations, followed by (ii).      

Alternative targets and economic efficiency of selecting protected areas for biodiversity conservation in boreal forest

We examine the relative merits of alternative forest biodiversity targets, which give different weights to species according to their conservation status and abundance. A site selection framework is used for choosing the habitat-protection strategy that maximizes biodiversity subject to an upper bound on funding with six alternative conservation goals. By using Finnish data on old-growth forests, we found that alternative conservation goals yield different benefit-cost tradeoffs. Goals relying on complementarity between protected stands result in great marginal costs at a high conservation level. Therefore, under these conditions it may not be economically efficient to establish a large conservation network to protect all species in a given area. In contrast, a large conservation network is more likely to be justified when the habitat-protection strategy focuses on species abundance. The trade-offs between alternative objectives are explicitly measured by incrementally varying the weights given to the species. We found that the targets for all species representation and species abundance can largely be met simultaneously. Protecting red-listed species reduces overall species coverage and species abundance particularly at low budget levels.     

山西生态经济问题初探：森林与人口,土地

山西省由于森林覆盖率极小,各种自然灾害频繁发生,致使耕地减少,质量下降,农业生产力降低;人口的激增,致使人均耕地面积大幅度减小,粮食紧缺,形成：人口增加－粮食不足－土地拓垦－森林消失－水土流失－经济贫困的恶性循环,从而进一步制约了社会经济的发展。为改变这一状况,笔者提出了若干对策指施。     

Measuring transnational leakage of forest conservation

Forest conservation in one country can influence the degree of conservation or deforestation in other countries because of international linkages of the forest products industry and markets and a lack of global coordination. Thus leakage and offsetting losses of environmental quality may be present. This paper develops an analytical framework for measuring this leakage and estimates its magnitude via general equilibrium modeling. We find that the magnitude of leakage depends upon the price elasticities of supply of and demand for forestry products across the countries and degree of cooperation in forest conservation. We estimate that a significant portion (42%-95%) of the reduced forestry production implemented in a country/region can be transferred to elsewhere, offsetting environmental gains. Leakage generally diminishes as more countries cooperate, but cooperation among only a few countries does not always dramatically reduce leakage. Thus forest conservation efforts and associated environmental quantity gains in a country or group of countries can be seriously undermined in terms of global net conservation gain in the absence of effective global cooperation. Our results also point to the importance of taking leakage into account in evaluating local or regional forest carbon sequestration projects.     

Using spatial microsimulation to account for demographic and spatial factors in environmental benefit transfer

This paper presents a simulation-based modelling approach for estimating total visitor numbers and amenity values for prospective non-priced open-access outdoor recreation sites. To begin, the geographic extent of the market for recreation at a policy site is estimated using data from a similar study site. The population residing within this geographic area is simulated using a spatial microsimulation model and GIS techniques and an individual-level ‘visitor arrival function’ is then transferred across this simulated population. This allows the latent demand for visits to the policy site by each simulated individual to be predicted and summed, providing an estimate of the total potential demand for recreation at the site. Combining this with an economic value measure of a visit provides an estimate of the potential amenity value of the policy site. The approach is applied to Moyode Wood, a small-scale forest in the West of Ireland, and estimates the potential total economic value of recreation at €0.4 million for the site. The research represents the first time that spatial microsimulation has been used in environmental benefit transfer and shows how it can be used to control for differences in demographic and spatial factors between study and policy sites. It also demonstrates how individual-level single-site travel cost models estimated using on-site survey data can be used to predict demand at alternative policy sites.     

Suspending disbelief: Influencing engagement in scenarios of forest futures

Scenario analysis is an approach to long-term planning that informs decision-making in contexts of highly uncertain future conditions. Scenario-based studies are rapidly growing in popularity, yet many aspects of the method are not fully understood. Participants' willingness to suspend disbelief in possible futures is an integral component of scenario-based studies, essential for considering alternative future scenarios, yet little is known about the factors that affect it. Participation in a scenario project does not necessarily imply willingness or ability to suspend disbelief; participants may not suspend disbelief simply upon request. However, the scenario literature says little about the aspects of scenario-based studies that influence suspension of disbelief.This article explores the factors that influenced the suspension of disbelief in one scenario exercise about the future of Canada's forests. Participants differed in their abilities to suspend disbelief in the scenarios in part because of their past experiences and expertise in particular areas, and their assessments of probable and desired future outcomes. Elements of the project design and implementation influenced participants' abilities to engage the scenarios. The results have implications for those interested in using scenarios for helping people and communities envision possible - and sustainable - futures.     

Estimation of forest values using choice modeling: An application to Spanish forests

This paper presents a Choice Modeling application of forest goods and services valuation for an afforestation program in the Northeast of Spain. The results from a random parameter logit model reveal that, on average, individuals would annually pay an average of 11.79 euros for the forests to sequester 68,000 tones of CO₂, 0.12 euros for delaying the loss of land productivity for ten years, and 6.33 euros from picnic users for being allowed to picnic in the new forests. On the other hand, individuals would experience a loss in welfare equivalent to − 9.67 euros if four-wheel driving is allowed in the new forests. Finally, being allowed to pick mushrooms in the new forests is valued at an average of 12.82 euros by those who live in rural areas.     

The optimal harvesting problem with a land market: a characterization of the asymptotic convergence

We study the asymptotic behavior of the optimal harvesting policies for a multiple species forest with a land market, i.e., any fraction of the land can be traded at any time stage. We prove the existence of sustainable states and we discuss the conditions under which any optimal trajectory converges in the long run towards one of these states or towards the set of optimal periodic cycles. We also discuss briefly a more general problem that includes costs of converting land between the different species.