The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.     

Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis

In landscape planning, land-use types need to be compared including the ecosystem services they provide. With multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), ecological economics offers a useful tool for environmental questions but mostly case-specific criteria are applied. This, however, makes it difficult to compare findings. Therefore, we present a systematic framework that includes the ecosystem services as criteria into MCDA. The ecological quantification of the provided ecosystem services is combined with the assigned importance of the single ecosystem services. In a case study from the central Alps, we compared three land-use alternatives resulting from land-use change caused by socio-economic pressures: traditional larch (Larix decidua) meadow, spruce forest (abandonment) and intensive meadow (intensification).Criteria for the MCDA model were selected by experts, criteria importance was ranked by stakeholders and criteria values were assessed with qualitative and quantitative indicators. Eventually spruce forest was ranked as the best land-use alternative followed by traditional larch meadow and intensive meadow. The combined approach of MCDA using ecosystem services as criteria showed how criteria weightings and criteria indicator values influence land-use alternatives' performance. The MCDA-model visualizes the consequences of land-use change for ecosystem service provision, facilitating landscape planning by structuring environmental problems and providing data for decisions.     

Biological conservation in dynamic agricultural landscapes: Effectiveness of public policies and trade-offs with agricultural production

Land use change and land management intensification are major drivers of biodiversity loss, especially in agricultural landscapes, that cover a large and increasing share of the world's surface. Incentive-based agri-environmental policies are designed to influence farmers' land-use decisions in order to mitigate environmental degradation. This paper evaluates the effectiveness of agri-environmental schemes for biological conservation in a dynamic agricultural landscape under economic uncertainty. We develop a dynamic ecological economic model of agricultural land-use and spatially explicit population dynamics. We then relate policies (subsidies to grassland, taxation of agricultural intensity) to the ecological outcome (probability of persistence of a species of interest). We also analyze the associated trade-offs between agricultural production (in value) and biological conservation (in probability of persistence) at the landscape scale.     

An integrated scenario analysis for the metal coating sector in Europe

Although new paint products and technologies have been developed, the sector of paint application still contributes substantially to total volatile organic compound (VOC) emissions. Recent environmental legislation, especially the EU Solvent Emission Directive 1999/13/EC and its transposition into national law, coming into force in 2007, will have an important influence on the sector structure and the associated supply chain, especially for small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). This paper summarises a comprehensive scenario analysis to explore possible future trajectories for the sector. The main focus is on paint application activities, considering in particular the consequences of new environmentally friendly products and technologies which can be used by SMEs. Four different scenarios representing possible future states of the sector are evaluated, taking into account environmental, technical and socio-economic aspects along the associated supply chain and life cycle. The scenarios allow the formulation of recommendations and guidelines for policy makers and industries. This example confirms that interdisciplinary scenario analysis is a suitable approach to investigate possible future development of an industrial sector.     

Opportunity Cost Estimation of Ecosystem Services

Land-use changes rank among the most significant drivers of change in ecosystem services worldwide. The enhancement of important services such as biodiversity and carbon sequestration requires modifications in land-use that can lead to the decline in other ecosystems services. Targeting the most suitable areas for particular land-uses based on comparative advantages requires opportunity cost information across large regions. This is a demanding task because the input–output relations are ill-defined and determined by spatially heterogeneous operational and environmental conditions. To address this methodological challenge, this paper presents a two-stage semiparametric technique that enables multi-dimensional production possibility frontiers to be estimated from data provided by biophysical models. Specific advantages of the proposed frontier approach are its flexibility with regard to assumptions on the convexity of the production possibility set and its freedom from any separability assumptions for the input–output space and the space of the heterogeneous background variables. The method is illustrated for a case study of 18 Central and Eastern European countries. Results show that opportunity costs of changes in ecosystem services provision differ substantially between regions. Those areas having already relatively high levels of carbon sequestration have a comparative advantage in sequestering carbon. Opportunity costs of biodiversity are generally positively related with the level of biodiversity up to a turning point after which they are negatively related. To illustrate the policy consequences of the observed economies and diseconomies of scope we compare two management regimes to illustrate the potential gains from smart land management.     

Towards an integrated model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers, pressures and impacts. A feasibility study based on three European long-term socio-ecological research platforms

Effective policies to slow the rate of anthropogenic biodiversity loss should reduce socioeconomic pressures on biodiversity, either directly or by modifying their underlying socioeconomic driving forces. The design of such policies is currently hampered by the limited understanding of socioeconomic drivers of and pressures on biodiversity as well as by lacking data, indicators and models. In order to improve understanding of these issues we here propose a conceptual model of socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. The model is based on the drivers-pressures-impacts-states-responses (DPSIR) scheme and on the socioeconomic metabolism approach. The aim of the model is to guide research aimed at improving our understanding of socioeconomic biodiversity pressures and drivers and to serve as a basis for the development of formal, quantitative models in that field. Based on three European long-term socio-ecological research (LTSER) platforms, we analyze the model's applicability and suitability as well as data availability and research needs. These platforms are the Danube Delta Wetland System in Romania, the Doñana in Spain and the Eisenwurzen in Austria. An empirical analysis of the relationship between the human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) and breeding bird richness in the Eisenwurzen demonstrates the ability of HANPP to provide a link between socioeconomic pressures/drivers and biodiversity. The analysis of the case studies underlines the potential utility of the conceptual model to guide future research into socioeconomic biodiversity drivers and pressures. However, considerable investments in monitoring and reconstruction of past trajectories as well as in model development will be required before mathematical (computer) models of the interrelation processes between society and ecosystems can be successfully deployed.     

Economic Growth Theory and Natural Resource Constraints: A Stocktake and Critical Assessment

Society is facing significant environmental challenges. The effects of climate change, biodiversity loss and environmental degradation are being increasingly felt worldwide. In recent years, researchers have attempted to adapt neoclassical and endogenous growth theory to account for constraints imposed by scarce natural resources. In this article, we review where, and how, researchers tend to incorporate natural resources and natural capital into growth theory. We then outline areas and questions that remain unanswered, including how novel impact investing and the eroding trade-off between GDP and the environment affect growth theory.     

基于多种保护特征协同与权衡的区域自然 保护地网络规划 ——以北京为例

自然保护地网络(PAN)对保护生物多样性、维持区 域重要的生态功能,促进生态空间与建设空间的可持续发展有 重要作用。为了全面实现保护目标,需要综合多种保护特征的 空间分布关系、保护成本等因素,对自然保护地网络中的各类 保护地进行高效明确的空间规划。研究以北京为例,依托系统 保护规划(SCP)框架建立区域尺度自然保护地网络规划的技 术路线。针对生物多样性和生态系统服务保护特征进行制图和 空间相关性分析,定义3类保护分区,采用空间优化算法工具 (Marxan with Zones)对保护分区进行3种情景的优先选址 布局,以最大限度地提高保护特征之间的协同,减少保护特征 之间的权衡。结果表明：对比绝对理想的保护场景,在严格的 保护场景中将保护目标以一定比例分配至相邻的分区,在提高 保护目标的实现率、促进保护特征之间的协同上更具有优势。 该研究能够为区域自然保护地网络的建设提供有效依据。     

城市建成环境对鸟类多样性的影响 机制研究评述及展望

城市化带来的环境变化是生物多样性的主要威胁， 但城市同样也是生物多样性保护的热点地区。因此，分析和预 测城市环境变化对生物多样性的影响对于维护城市生态系统服 务，提升人类福祉至关重要。目前，越来越多的研究对城市建 成环境进行了详细的分类，分别量化了各个城市特征对生物多 样性水平的影响。然而，对影响城市内生物多样性水平的因 素仍缺乏多尺度、全球性的分析。借助Web of Science和 CNKI，对来自全球37个城市的111篇文献进行了建成环境下 鸟类多样性研究方法和结果的系统性分析，并在归纳关键性城 市建成环境要素的基础上，提出了以生物多样性为导向的建成 环境优化策略，指出了鸟类多样性保护和城市可持续发展的未 来方向。     

Bioenergy and global land-use change

This is the first article that econometrically estimates the global land-use change impact of bioenergy. Applying time-series analytical mechanisms to fuel, biofuel and agricultural commodity prices and production, we estimate the long-run relationship between energy prices, bioenergy production and the global land-use change. Our results suggest that rising energy prices and bioenergy production significantly contribute to the global land-use change both through the direct and indirect land-use change impact. Globally, the total agricultural area yearly increases by 35 578.1 thousand ha due to increasing oil price, and by 12 125.1 thousand ha due to increasing biofuel production, which corresponds to 0.73% and 0.25% of the total worldwide agricultural area, respectively. Soya land-use change and wheat land-use change have the highest elasticities with respect to both oil price and biofuel production. In contrast, nonbiomass crops (grassland and rice) have negative land-use change elasticities. Region-specific results suggest that South America faces the largest yearly total land-use change associated with oil price increase (+10 600.7 thousand ha), whereas Asia (+8918.6 thousand ha), South America (+4024.9 thousand ha) and North America (+1311.5 thousand ha) have the largest yearly total land-use change associated with increase in biofuel production.     

The trade-off between agriculture and biodiversity in marginal areas: Can crofting and bumblebee conservation be reconciled?

Crofting is a low intensity agricultural system restricted to the Highlands and Islands of northern Scotland typified by small scale mixed livestock production and rotational cropping activities. As with other low intensity farming systems across Europe, crofting is changing in response to a range of socio-economic factors. This is having a negative impact on the populations of rare bumblebees that are associated with this agricultural system. In this paper we use an ecological-economic modelling approach to examine the likely impacts of introducing two different management options for conserving bumblebees on croft land-use and income. Two linear programming models were constructed to represent the predominant crofting systems found in the Outer Hebrides, and varying constraints on bumblebee abundance were imposed to examine the trade-off between conservation and agricultural incomes. The model outputs illustrate that in some instances it is likely that both agricultural profits and bumblebee densities can be enhanced. We conclude that policy-makers should take into consideration the type of farming system when designing cost-effective agri-environment policies for low intensity farming systems, and that improvements in bee conservation are not necessarily in conflict with maintaining farm income.     

Integrated ecological-economic modelling of water pollution abatement management options in the Upper Ems River Basin

This paper presents the results of the FLUMAGIS project, in which we developed a spatial decision support system (SDSS) to support the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD). The modelling approach is based on the integration of ecological and socio-economic assessment methods, scale-specific and GIS-based data and knowledge modelling and visualization techniques. The project study area is the intensively cropped Upper Ems River Basin in north-western Germany. A method was developed that enables the transfer of scale-specific data and information. Analyses were performed for baseline conditions and specific management and planning scenarios to improve water quantity and quality at micro-, meso- and macro-scale. The results of the study indicate that substantial, expensive water and land management changes at different scales would be necessary to achieve the WFD water quality targets in this basin. Ecological-economic analysis of cost-effectiveness reveals that the costs of achieving certain goals of the WFD can vary more than tenfold depending on which measure is chosen out of the pool of management alternatives. Moreover, the study shows that the differentiation between landscapes and other regional characteristics although considered essential to the successful implementation of WFD measures is very data intensive.     

Regional economic impact of oil spills

This article demonstrates an approach of coupling an environmental model to I-O analysis which aims to quantify the regional economic impact of an environmental accident. The model is implemented with the data of a potential oil spill interacting with the salmon aquaculture industry in Northern Norway. The production loss in salmon aquaculture and the regional income impact is computed and discussed. The approach used in this article could be a model for estimating the regional socio-economic impact of environmental factors like water and air pollution.     

Statistical modeling of land-cover changes based on key socio-economic indicators

Landscapes are complex human–environment systems operating at spatio-temporal scales. Time is just as important as space when researching landscape changes. These changes are influenced by both environmental and socio-economic factors. However, correlations between environmental landscape attributes and land-cover patterns/changes are weakened by human activities such as intensification of agriculture eliminating the constraints of water and nutrient availability. Relations between changes in socio-economic organisation and land cover become apparent only over a longer period of time. Thus, in our study, we focused on socio-economic factors and their long-term effects on land cover. We present a method to (i) differentiate types of land-cover changes at district level, (ii) model correlations between socio-economic factors and land cover changes and (iii) identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes between 1945 and 1999 in a German marginal rural landscape.We employed agricultural land-cover data gained from the interpretation of multi-temporal aerial photographs. Based on these data, we differentiated types of land-cover changes, characterising different directions of agricultural land-cover changes in the observation time period. Various socio-economic aspects were considered by introducing data representing factors of demography, employment, economy, infrastructure, agricultural structure and policy. The relations between time series of land-cover data and of socio-economic data were modeled with the help of redundancy analysis. Correlation coefficients were used to identify key socio-economic indicators of land-cover changes. The results showed that a relatively high percentage of variance in land-cover data can be explained by socio-economic factors. The types of land-cover changes can be characterised by combinations of key socio-economic indicators. The indicators can be helpful to reconstruct land-cover changes in other regions. Thus, they provide a basis for the development of sustainable land-cover management systems.     

Biodiversity Loss and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Analysis

This article empirically examines the relationship between biodiversity loss and economic growth in light of the current debate on the effects of economic growth on environmental quality. The basic premise is that biodiversity belongs to a special class of environmental degradation because it involves complex ecosystems, the loss of which cannot be recovered by technological advances. The main finding is that although economic growth has an expected adverse effect on biodiversity, the composition of economic output can also be significant, particularly in low-income countries. The study highlights the need to develop appropriate institutions and macroeconomic policies that allow biodiversity values to be internalized in decisionmaking processes.     

Valuing ecosystem and economic services across land-use scenarios in the Prairie Pothole Region of the Dakotas, USA

This study uses biophysical values derived for the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of North and South Dakota, in conjunction with value transfer methods, to assess environmental and economic tradeoffs under different policy-relevant land-use scenarios over a 20-year period. The ecosystem service valuation is carried out by comparing the biophysical and economic values of three focal services (i.e. carbon sequestration, reduction in sedimentation, and waterfowl production) across three focal land uses in the region [i.e. native prairie grasslands, lands enrolled in the Conservation Reserve and Wetlands Reserve Programs (CRP/WRP), and cropland]. This study finds that CRP/WRP lands cannot mitigate (hectare for hectare) the loss of native prairie from a social welfare standpoint. Land use scenarios where native prairie loss was minimized, and CRP/WRP lands were increased, provided the most societal benefit. The scenario modeling projected native prairie conversion to cropland over the next 20 years would result in a social welfare loss valued at over $4 billion when considering the study's three ecosystem services, and a net loss of about $3.4 billion when reductions in commodity production are accounted for.     

Threshold effects and incentives for the conservation of biodiversity

Biological diversity is a central component of the stock of natural capital on which all economic development is based. Other things being equal, loss of biologically diversity implies loss of development potential, and its conservation through sustainable use or outright protection implies the protection of that potential. One characteristics of biodiversity loss of especial importance is that biodiversity loss, more than any other current environmental problem, is associated with ecological threshold effects. The paper explores the implication of this characteristics for the properties of a biodiversity conservation strategy.     

Bringing Ecosystem Services into the Real World: An Operational Framework for Assessing the Economic Consequences of Losing Wild Nature

Policy action to halt the global loss of biodiversity and ecosystems is hindered by the perception that it would be so costly as to compromise economic development, yet this assumption needs testing. Inspired by the recent Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, the leaders of the G8+5 nations commissioned a similar assessment of the economics of losing biodiversity, under the Potsdam Initiative on Biodiversity. Here, we propose a conceptual framework for such a global assessment which emphasizes several critical insights from the environmental economics and valuation literature: contrasting counterfactual scenarios which differ solely in whether they include specific conservation policies; identifying non-overlapping benefits; modeling the production, flow, use and value of benefits in a spatially-explicit way; and incorporating the likely costs as well as possible benefits of policy interventions. Tackling these challenges, we argue, will significantly enhance our ability to quantify how the loss of benefits derived from ecosystems and biodiversity compares with the costs incurred in retaining them. We also summarise a review of the current state of knowledge, in order to assess how quickly this framework could be operationalized for some key ecosystem services.     

社会经济与水环境质量协调发展研究

社会经济与水环境的协调发展是未来社会可持续发展的关键。利用江苏省社会经济统计数据、环境统计数据,分析了江苏省过去十年社会经济发展的状况以及水环境演变趋势,并量化研究了两者之间的内在联系,建立了回归方程;分别设计了三种不同的社会经济发展模式,比较分析了不同模式对江苏省未来水环境产生的影响,结果显示:在保证社会经济快速发展的基础上,通过调整产业结构并削减重点污染行业可以在很大程度上减少污染物的排放,有利于保护水环境,是比较理想的发展模式。