Modeling migration barriers in a two-sector framework: A welfare analysis of the hukou reform in China

The present paper constructs a two-sector labor market model for China featuring endogenous internal labor mobility and heterogeneous costs of migration induced by the Chinese household registration system (hukou). The main novelty of our model is to divide migrants into those with more family responsibilities and those with fewer to explain the empirical fact that almost all young people with rural hukou have migrated to cities, while people who stay in the rural area are older and have more family responsibilities. We conduct two policy experiments using the model: one experiment concerned with reducing costs of living for younger migrants and the other for older migrants. The main results are that the first policy would unambiguously increase social welfare, while the reduced-cost policy for older migrants would reduce poverty and inequality although some urban natives may experience a wage reduction.     

非传统生态脆弱区贫困群体的生态资源感知及生态脱贫意向分析——以山东地区的政府生态扶贫调查为例

依托山东地区政府生态扶贫实地调查所获得的776份问卷数据,运用二元Logistic模型对非传统生态脆弱区贫困群体的生态资源感知及生态脱贫意向进行实证分析。样本区域贫困群体的生态资源感知指数介于2.307~2.953之间,无较大差异,超过90%的贫困群体存在积极生态脱贫意向。实证结果表明:(1)非传统生态脆弱区生态资源韧性大,贫困群体的生态资源供给感知敏感度低于生态资源需求感知;(2)非传统生态脆弱区贫困群体的生态脱贫意向首先直接受到生态保护补偿扶贫政策的刺激,除了补助金补偿,还应通过就业机会补偿、市场化补偿等多种形式刺激贫困群体的发展积极性;(3)其次生态脱贫意向还受到生态资源感知、生态脱贫政策和社会人口特征的交互影响。     

Ecological sustainability in policy assessments: A wide-angle view and a close watch

We give a perspective from two practitioners on some of the challenges of addressing sustainability concerns in environmental policy assessments. We focus on the ecological dimension of sustainability, which is closely related to the concept of “ecosystem resilience.” First, we discuss several recent benefit-cost analyses conducted by EPA that illustrate many of the practical difficulties analysts have faced when attempting to assess the ecological benefits of proposed regulations. Next, we discuss the importance of increased coordination of policy assessments among offices and agencies that traditionally operate more or less independently. We conclude by using a stylized model to illustrate how using an “adaptive management” approach to designing and evaluating policies can help to avoid some of the limitations of standard policy assessments highlighted in this special section of Ecological Economics and elsewhere.     

中国的政府公共支出与减贫政策

在中国 ,尽管农村经济增长和贫困减少取得了长足进展 ,但很少有研究对农村经济的动力源进行分析 ,而把公共投资作为农村发展和消除贫困的直接动力源的研究尤其缺乏。本文旨在弥补以前研究的空白 ,并指出各类公共投资对农村经济增长、贫困减少和地区不均等的边际效应在各地区和各时期差别很大。根据实证结果和对历史上公共支出方式的分析可知 ,农村公共支出再分配可以带来很大的潜在收益。     

A Note on Banking Reform and Poverty: Revisiting the Indian Social Banking Experiment

Recent empirical work demonstrates that state‐led bank expansion in rural India has contributed to a reduction in the number of poor people. In this note it is shown that the social banking policies have not simultaneously decreased the rural poverty gap. This suggests a potential trade‐off for policy makers, hinted at by earlier theoretical modeling: while opening new bank branches in “unbanked locations” might lift some people out of poverty, it may increase the depth of poverty of others. The result also illustrates the value added of combining complementary poverty measures to achieve a more complete picture of the impact of policies on livelihoods.     

"送猪崽"与"折现金":我国产业精准扶贫的路径分析与政策模拟研究

产业扶贫旨在将贫困户的生产活动纳入社会产业大循环,因此其一直是全世界扶贫工作的重要方式和主要目标之一.我国产业精准扶贫出现了两条新路径:一是GTP路径,即向贫困户送猪崽、鸡苗和良种等资本,直接将贫困户的生产纳入当地的产业体系;二是GSP路径,即将扶贫资金折合现金并由贫困户自己决定投资项目和选择产业.文章构建了包括贫困户和非贫困户的微观主体行为模型以及基于农村公平和效率的农村福利模型,分别研究了这两条新路径上贫困户福利和农村福利的动态演变过程,然后使用系统动力学模型进行了政策模拟,拟探索出我国产业精准扶贫的最优路径及其政策支持空间.结果显示:在第3~4年的时间内,GSP路径要优于GTP,但是超过4年,GTP路径上的贫困户福利和农村福利就会累进性超过GSP.而且,在GTP路径上的时间越长,扶贫效果就越好.在中长期,提高贫困户的技术水平,增加贫困户的初始资本额是进一步提高GTP路径上贫困户福利和农村福利水平的重要环节.文章的结论对于提高我国精准扶贫的理论自信,进一步完善我国产业精准扶贫政策体系具有一定的启示.     

金融能力、金融决策与贫困

本文利用2013年中国家庭金融调查（CHFS）数据,通过因子分析法构建居民金融能力指数,运用Probit模型、工具变量法和中介效应模型实证分析了金融能力对贫困的影响以及金融能力、金融决策与贫困之间的作用机理。研究发现：（1）无论是绝对贫困还是相对贫困,金融能力能够显著抑制贫困的发生,且城镇地区相较农村地区更明显。（2）金融能力对贫困的影响既存在“抑制效应”,也存在“偏离效应”,两者之间呈现正“U”型关系。（3）经中介效应模型计算可知,在“抑制效应”下,金融能力可以通过改善金融决策来缓解居民贫困状况。具体而言,在三种不同的贫困状况衡量方式下,金融决策的中介效应占比分别为2542%,2296%和2160%。     

Ecological and economic sustainability in fishery management: A multi-agent model for understanding competition and cooperation

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers.     

中国的经济增长、贫困减少与政策选择

本文详细讨论了贫困分析常用的几个概念和衡量指标 ,并建立了它们之间的关系 ,从而建立起分析模型。进一步 ,本文提出了分解增长效应的方法和贫困减少指数 ,然后 ,本文将提出的模型、方法和指数应用于调查结果及其他官方资料 ,以分析 1 985年至 2 0 0 1年间增长与贫困减少的关系。实证结果与 1 985年以来中国贫困减少的经历相符。贫困减少指数表明 ,增长政策的选择应该使收入效应与不均等效应之和最大化 ,这为不同的发展阶段与不同的地区提供了政策选择。     

新农保与农村低收入家庭贫困脆弱性*——基于精准扶贫背景和不同贫困标准

为考察新农保在精准扶贫时期能否降低农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性，本文利用2014—2018年家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，基于2 300元/年和每人每天32美元两类不同贫困标准衡量的贫困脆弱性指标，采用双向固定效应模型和工具变量法进行实证检验。研究发现，总体而言，缴费参与新农保对农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱性具有显著削弱作用，但领取新农保在一定程度上加剧了农村低收入家庭的贫困脆弱程度。根据领保状态的分阶段分析发现，缴费参与新农保和缴费参保人数增加对未领保家庭和领保家庭的贫困脆弱性都具有显著改善作用，但领取新农保和领保人数对贫困脆弱性没有显著影响。异质性分析表明，缴费参与新农保可以改善健康成员家庭的贫困脆弱性，对无储蓄家庭和无借贷家庭的贫困脆弱程度具有显著缓解作用。机制检验表明，缴费参与新农保可以通过提高家庭生产性固定资产和减少代际转移，进而缓解家庭贫困脆弱性程度，而领取新农保则通过增加子女对老人的经济支持而加剧家庭贫困脆弱程度。     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

Modeling a policy making framework for urban sustainability: Incorporating system dynamics into the Ecological Footprint

The Ecological Footprint (EF) is a powerful tool to advance the science of sustainability. However, the static snapshot of EF accounting is not designed to make projections of future sustainability consequences, which fails to elicit policy implications from a dynamic, temporally explicit perspective. This work attempts to incorporate system dynamics (SD) into EF to develop a dynamic EF forecasting framework, and provide a platform to support policy making for urban sustainability improvement. SD is firstly adopted to model the dynamics and interactions of EF driving forces, and then incorporated into the EF framework by correlating system drivers to EF-related consumption categories, embodied EF is finally calculated using the compound-based method. Based on different policy feasibility and sustainability targets, four policy scenarios are designed to explore future sustainability prospects and formulate integrated policies which would attain that sustainability scenario. The modeling procedure is applied to a case study area to illustrate how it works, and policy making for urban sustainability can hopefully be supported using this developed framework in the near future.     

包容性金融发展与农村居民贫困减缓——基于全要素生产率视角的分析

本文用DEA—Malmquist指数法测算了全要素生产率指数，结合2006—2016年中国内地省际面板数据，基于全要素生产率视角，运用中介效应模型实证分析了包容性金融发展对农村居民贫困的影响。实证结果表明：（1）包容性金融发展能够通过全要素生产率的中介效应发挥减贫作用。（2）进一步的研究发现，包容性金融服务渗透度的提升对贫困的影响最为显著；同时，包容性金融发展可通过技术进步和效率提升作用来推动全要素生产率增长，进一步作用于贫困。（3）稳健性检验表明，我国东部与中西部地区包容性金融发展水平差异较大，对全要素生产率的提升乃至农村减贫的贡献表现出较大不平衡性。本文的政策建议为：首先，应持续推进包容性金融发展，充分发挥全要素生产率的中介效应，以更快实现2020年全面脱贫目标；其次，要继续加强农村金融基础设施建设，以实现金融 服务均等性，充分发挥金融减贫的优势；最后，要合理配置金融资源，注重地区间发展的公平性，以实现经济社会均衡发展。     

The Impact of Transfers and Taxes on Alternative Poverty Indexes

Changes in the headcount rate are the standard metric for gauging how public transfers and taxes affect US poverty. An alternative strategy, one theoretically more appealing and complete, is to rely on distribution-sensitive indexes (Sen 1976, 1981). How would policy's measured impacts change if such an approach were to be used? This study provides empirical evidence using three selected poverty indexes from the class developed by Foster et al . (1984). Pre- and post-policy values of each index are estimated for the total population and for twenty-three demographic sub-groups using data from March Current Population Surveys covering the period 1992 to 1998. The results indicate that the alternative indexes produce consistent ordinal rankings of policy's impact. (In contrast, the measured cardinal effects of policy differ substantially across indexes.) The empirical evidence has a clear implication for anti-poverty policy: government transfers and taxes are effective in lowering poverty headcount rates, in reducing the depth of poverty and in lessening the relative deprivation among the poor.     

Impact of trade liberalisation on labour market and poverty in Sri Lanka. An integrated macro-micro modelling approach

This paper revisits the long standing controversy of trade and poverty linkage using a macro-micro modelling approach based on general equilibrium and microsimulation analytical frameworks. Sri Lanka, the first country in South Asia which undertook trade reforms more than three decades ago, is taken as a case in point in this study. The paper analyses the effects of trade liberalisation on income distribution and poverty in the urban, rural and estate sectors in Sri Lanka using the first ever microsimulation model built for the country in combination with a multi-household computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. The results reveal that without any fiscal policy adjustments a 100% tariff cut would lead to an increase in economic growth and a reduction in poverty incidence both in the short run as well as in the long run. However, when the tariff cut combined with the fiscal policy adjustments to maintain the budget neutrality, poverty outcomes showed mixed results. In contrast, results show that trade liberalisation increases the income inequality in Sri Lanka.     

Wage subsidies, work incentives, and the reform of the Austrian welfare system

We analyze the employment and income effects of a needs-based minimum benefit system (“Bedarfsorientierte Mindestsicherung”) which has recently been introduced in Austria. The aim of this reform was to reduce poverty as well as to increase work incentives for recipients of social assistance. On the basis of a behavioral microsimulation model we show that this new system slightly increases employment but reduces incomes for the poorest households remaining unemployed. As an alternative, we analyze a budgetary neutral reform proposal which reduces financial incentives for marginal employment and provides a wage subsidy rewarding working longer hours. This alternative reform would yield larger positive employment effects, but more households would suffer from income losses. Overall, income inequality and poverty are affected little, however, both under the new social welfare system and the alternative reform proposal.     

Shocks, Policy Reforms and Pro-Poor Growth in Bolivia: A Simulation Analysis

This paper analyzes how major external shocks and policy reforms affect Bolivia’s ability to achieve pro‐poor growth. Employing a recursive‐dynamic CGE model, it considers three different scenarios: an optimistic baseline scenario; a more realistic scenario that accounts for two important negative external shocks (declining capital inflows and El Niño); and a scenario that captures the combined effect of the shocks and two major reform projects (development of the gas sector and deregulation of the urban labor market). It turns out that the shocks are likely to impair Bolivia’s medium‐term development prospects, leading to marked increases in both urban and rural poverty. If the reform projects were implemented, the poverty increase caused by the shocks would be more than offset for urban households, but reinforced for rural households.     

派驻督察、绩效考核转变与高质量发展*——基于土地派驻督察的经验证据

本文将派驻督察政策与绩效考核指标转变纳入统一分析框架内,利用多任务委托代理模型分析了“质量”任务和“数量”任务冲突情形下的最优策略选择,并以国家土地督察为例,采用双重差分的方法进行实证检验。研究结果表明：派驻督察政策有助于推动高质量发展,但其实施要充分考虑任务的相对冲突性;在双代理人模式下,土地派驻督察政策能够显著发挥其监督激励的作用,可以通过影响地方政府来推动高质量发展;转变绩效考核指标这类引导型激励方式发挥的效果开始初步显现。机制检验表明,督察政策推动高质量发展是通过促进法制规范性、发展集约性、环境可持续性和民生共享性等方面实现的。     

劳动力流动对农村居民收入的影响效应分析——基于西部289个自然村的调查

本文运用国家社科基金课题组2010年初在西部地区289个自然村有无外出务工户的问卷调查及2000-2007年西部各省际单位的面板数据为研究样本,就劳动力流动对农村居民收入的影响效应进行统计与实证分析。结果发现:农村劳动力流动对增加农村居民收入、缓解农民家庭贫困、改善农民家庭福利状况具有积极效应;劳动力流动、农村固定资产投资、经济增长及农村人力资本提高等因素对西部农村居民人均纯收入均具有积极影响,其中,区域经济增长对农民增收作用最大。     

基于生态补偿的国家重点生态功能区居民可持续生计影响研究

在对可持续生计的理论机理进行分析的基础上,将熵值法和极差标准化法相结合,确定各指标权重并进行标准化,得到国家重点生态功能区居民生计资本、生态补偿政策以及可持续生计能力的量化值,并利用可行的广义最小二乘法进行实证分析。研究发现,五种生计资本对居民的可持续生计具有正向影响,且影响程度的排序为人力资本>金融资本>社会资本>自然资本>物质资本。生态补偿政策对国家重点生态功能区居民可持续生计能力也具有正向影响,说明生态补偿政策有利于改善当地收入状况,巩固脱贫攻坚成果。最后,生态补偿政策还可通过与人力资本、金融资本、物质资本和自然资本的交互作用,促进国家重点生态功能区居民可持续生计能力的提高。