Efficiency, equity, and sustainability in a water quantity-quality optimization model in the Rio Grande basin

Integrated hydrologic and economic optimization models at the basin scale provide a framework for policy design, implementation, and evaluation in water-stressed basins. Despite the considerable potential that basin scale analysis offers, few basin-wide studies have examined tradeoffs among efficiency, equity, and sustainability when analyzing the design of water resource programs. This paper develops a basin scale framework to identify hydrologic and economic impacts of alternative water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations for protecting water quality. Key issues are examined that confront integrated hydroeconomic basin models: linking water and economics, spatial and temporal scale integration, and quantity-quality relationships. Economic efficiency is defined and measured for each of two urban water pricing arrangements that comply with urban water quality protection regulations. Alternative measures of equity are analyzed in both spatial and temporal dimensions. Sustainability is evaluated physically for protecting the water supply and financially for long-term revenue viability. The approach is illustrated from results of a dynamic nonlinear programming optimization model of water use in North America's Rio Grande basin. The model optimizes the net present value of the basin's total economic benefits subject to constraints on equity, sustainability, hydrology, and institutions. It is applied to assess impacts of a two-tiered pricing program that complies with recently implemented drinking water quality standards for the basin's two largest U.S. cities: Albuquerque, New Mexico, and El Paso, Texas. Results suggest that two-tiered pricing of urban water supply has considerable potential to perform well in meeting the aims of efficiency, equity, and sustainability. Findings provide a general framework for designing water pricing programs that comply with environmental regulations.     

Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.     

On the efficiency of environmental instruments in a spatial economy

This paper develops an efficiency criterion to evaluate environmental policy instruments in a spatial economy. We call an environmental policy regime at the regional level efficient if it guarantees not only an efficient distribution of emission permits within a region, but also an efficient locational pattern of mobile firms across the regions of a federation. Using marketable pollution rights or emission taxes, efficiency in this broad sense can only be achieved if revenues of regional environmental agencies are not transferred to regional firms. Direct controls neither support an efficient allocation of emission rights within a region nor locational efficiency of firms.     

影响我国环境库兹涅茨曲线的外贸与环境政策分析

环境库兹涅茨曲线(EKC)体现了一国经济增长与环境污染的关系.本文以1990～2005年我国工业污染的数据为基础,描绘出我国EKC是"N"字型波浪式上升的,阐述了产生这一特点的贸易政策和环境政策的影响因素,肯定了政府的环保政策对于环境恶化的控制效果,但认为政府的直接干预只是协调经济增长与环境污染关系的外部手段,提高经济运行效率才是解决问题的根本途径.     

Supply and demand factors of Cleaner technologies: Some empirical evidence

This article identifies and analyzes factors that affect the willingness of firms and consumers to develop and adopt cleaner technologies. Cleaner technologies is used as a general term for pollution abatement technologies, re-use systems, and environmentally sound consumer products and materials. The article also contains the findings of three case studies on cleaner technologies (CFC substitutes, low-solvent paints and coatings, and membrane technology), in which the importance of the identified factors is investigated. From the case studies some general conclusions are drawn about these factors, and the way in which policy instruments can be used to stimulate innovation in and diffusion of cleaner technologies. No single policy instrument is considered to be optimal. Instead a policy mix is needed, involving a much wider use of economic instruments.This paper is based on a research project for the Ministries of Economic Affairs and the Environment in the Netherlands, and is a revision of an earlier paper Policy Instruments to Stimulate Cleaner Technologies, which was prepared for the EAERE conference in Stockholm, June 11–14th, 1991. The authors thank the referee for helpful comments.     

Natural capital and quality of life: a model for evaluating the sustainability of alternative regional development paths

Natural capital contributes to the quality of life of a region in two complementary ways: first, by directly providing environmental services that cannot be imported, and second, by supplying the natural resources that, through a human controlled production process, become valuable to humans. The evolution of the combination of these two components of the quality of life determines the path of development a region takes. Environmental services also determine the ability of natural capital to regenerate itself. Ecosystems and other components of the regional natural capital produce environmental services that provide life-support functions necessary for natural capital reproduction. The destruction of this critical natural capital impairs the internal sources of improvement of the quality of life of a region, leading to a non-sustainable path of development. This article describes a model of the relationship between natural capital and quality of life that provides a stricter definition of sustainable development through explicit characterization and classification of natural capital according to its ability to produce life-supporting environmental services, by its substitutability, and by its possible reconstruction. Application of this model then shows that there are 51 possible regional development paths, only 32 of which are sustainable and only 14 of which are sustainable while also providing improvements in quality of life. Only six of these 14 sustainable development paths are attained with economic growth, however, while the other eight paths increase quality of life by increasing the production of environmental services. The model could help in the development of institutional interventions that would promote regional development paths that are sustainable.     

Algeria: A three-sector macrofiscal model for debt sustainability and growth policy analysis

In this paper, we present a dynamic general equilibrium (DGE) model to address the macrofiscal vulnerabilities and the effects of fiscal policy on growth and employment in Algeria. We first discuss the baseline scenario over the period 2021–2040. According to our baseline results, without fundamental changes in fiscal policies, even relatively high growth will not be sufficient to put public debt on a sustainable path. We then conduct four experiments and assess their impact on fiscal accounts, growth, and unemployment: an increase in the efficiency of public spending on infrastructure investment, a gradual reduction in the share of noninterest government spending in GDP, the same gradual reduction in spending combined with a permanent increase in the share of investment in infrastructure in total noninterest government expenditure, and a composite fiscal reform program that combines these individual policies, respectively. The results suggest that public debt sustainability can be achieved, and growth and employment can be promoted, as long as an ambitious fiscal reform program involving tax, spending, and governance reforms is implemented. Importantly, our quantitative analysis shows that, with a well-designed fiscal program, there may be no trade-off between fiscal consolidation and economic growth.     

环境规制对碳效率的多重路径及门槛模型研究

从结构升级及效率提升两大维度刻画环境规制对碳排放效率的关系及作用机制,研究环境规制是如何提升城市碳排放效率的。基于2006—2019年中国279个城市层面数据,采用非参数百分位自抽法,逐步回归法、Sobel检验和交互调节模型验证影响路径,并利用门槛模型探讨不同路径下环境规制的调节作用。结果表明：(1)环境规制促进城市碳排放效率提升,但存在区域异质性;(2)环境规制通过促进产业结构高度化、绿色技术创新和能源效率升级提高碳排放效率,产业结构合理化及产业集聚“遮掩”了环境规制的激励作用;(3)环境规制对提升碳排放效率存在多种门槛效应和调节机制。发挥环境规制对碳排放效率结构和效率的双重激励时,需注意不同路径的维度问题,以提高准度,把握力度。     

The material basis of the global economy: Worldwide patterns of natural resource extraction and their implications for sustainable resource use policies

Material flow accounting and analysis (MFA) has been established as an influential framework for quantifying the use of natural resources by modern societies. So far, however, no reference data for overall scale and trends of global extraction of natural resources and their distribution between different world regions has been available. This paper presents the first comprehensive quantification of the material basis of the global economy, i.e. used domestic extraction in a time series from 1980 to 2002. We analyse time trends for major material groups (fossil fuels, metals, industrial and construction minerals, and biomass) disaggregated into seven world regions. This allows for (a) an illustration of the global economy's physical growth driven by worldwide processes of economic integration over the past decades, and (b) an indication of the worldwide distribution of environmental pressures associated with material extraction. The results show that annual resource consumption of the world economy increased by about one third between 1980 and 2002. This indicates that scale effects due to economic growth more than compensated for other effects, such as the relative increase of the service sectors' contribution to GDP (structural effect) and the use of new production technologies with higher material and energy efficiency (technology effect). The observed growth of natural resource extraction is unevenly distributed over the main material categories, with metals showing the highest growth rate. The regional analysis shows the increasing importance of Asia and Latin America in global resource extraction. On the global level, material intensity, i.e. resource extraction per unit of GDP, decreased by about 25%, indicating relative decoupling of resource extraction from economic growth. The paper concludes with policy recommendations for a more sustainable use of natural resources.     

基于环境经济效益分析的再生资源产业政策选择

发展再生资源产业是实现循环经济的重要环节。综合评价和分析再生资源回收利用产生的环境经济综合效益,促进该产业的健康发展,是当前要解决的关键问题之一。基于再生资源回收利用的双重外部性特征,从理论上分析再生资源回收利用的环境经济效益,并确定社会最佳回收水平。在此基础上,选取案例进行实证分析,剖析我国再生资源产业发展面临的关键问题,提出针对性政策建议。     

Estimation of the efficiency of structural funds: a parametric and nonparametric approach

This article seeks to perform an analysis of the efficiency of the application of the structural funds in the regions classified as Objective 1 over the period 2000 to 2006, applying the techniques known as Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) and stochastic frontier. In the first place, we are going to identify which are the most efficient regions. Finally, we will analyse the extent to which certain factors have repercussions on the efficiency such as country, geographical location and contribution of agriculture of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the result indicates that some of these variables have significantly influences of technical efficiency.     

德国能效管理及对我国节能减排工作的思考

全球能源资源紧缺是当前人类经济社会可持续发展面临的重要挑战。提高能源利用效率,减少污染减排,已成为世界各国应对气候变化、保障能源安全和保护生态环境共同任务。德国是全球第五大能源消费国。由于国内能源资源有限,德国政府高度重视能源能效管理并取得了较大成效：1990-2008年,德国经济年均增长1．7％,但其能源消费总量却下降了约6％。本文在调研德国能源能效管理和节能减排最新进展的基础上,对其政策体系、管理机制和研发创新情况进行了分析,并对我国进一步推动节能减排工作提出了建议。     

环境约束下中国与世界主要国家技术效率和生产率的测度与比较

运用含非期望产出的超效率SBM(slack based measure)模型和GML(global Malmquist-Luenberger)指数,对中国与世界主要国家1991—2016年的分别在考虑和不考虑环境约束下的技术效率和全要素生产率进行测度与比较。研究发现,不考虑环境约束的测度结果忽略了一国发展所造成的污染损失,导致技术效率与生产率被高估;中国的技术效率在考虑环境因素后显著下降,总效率排名从样本中的第16位下降至第40位。时间趋势上,中国的环境效率与技术效率的差距呈现先扩大后缩小,且近年来有逐渐趋同的态势;动态视角上,不考虑环境约束时中国的全要素生产率变化总体呈现增长趋势,但在考虑环境因素后中国的环境全要素生产率转变为下降趋势,这其中,技术进步的下降是影响环境全要素生产率变化的主要因素。     

Ecological and economic sustainability in fishery management: A multi-agent model for understanding competition and cooperation

Recent studies have shown that many marine ecosystems are experiencing an accelerating loss of population and biodiversity. It is apparent that there is a growing disparity between the available supply of fish and the desire of the growing world population to catch them. Although studies have begun to question the ecological sustainability of managed fishery systems, they often omit the corresponding effects on the economic sustainability of fishery industries. This is particularly important in rural coastal areas where the fishing industry is often a dominant employer. In this article, we analyze the interactions between economic and ecological dynamic systems using a multi-agent dynamic model of fishery management. Multiple agents (fishers) harvest multiple fish species and adapt the amount and allocation of their effort to their value functions, which are given as net profits of the fish harvest sold for a market price. This is largely unique in fishery models, since many econometric studies view fishers as represented by homogenous ‘average’ agents. We introduce and compare two different decision rules governing the behavior of fishers engaged in a competitive market. We demonstrate a situation where both behaviors lead to a decline of all fish stocks, as well as profits for most fishers. As an alternative, we introduce a cooperative approach in which fisheries jointly set sustainable limits for total harvest and effort that are then distributed to the fishers according to distribution rules. The simulation reveals that fish stocks and profits can stabilize at significantly higher levels in the cooperative case, leading to a continuous accumulation of capital for all fishers. This model demonstrates key aspects of overfishing conflicts that can be overcome through planned fishing quotas and cooperative market mechanisms. It also demonstrates a novel approach for simulating the dynamic behavior of heterogeneous fishers.     

气候政策的经济环境效应及其缓解措施的研究综述——兼谈对我国的启示

气候政策对一国经济和环境产生一定的效应,开放经济条件下还将对一国产业的国际竞争力产生影响。碳泄漏等问题使得气候政策的实际减排效果受到了质疑。气候政策实施过程中产生的这些问题都将严重影响气候政策的有效性。为使气候政策的有效性达到最优,很多学者研究了缓解气候政策负面效应的措施。本文对一些重要的气候政策的经济环境效应进行了理论总结,从竞争力效应、经济效应、环境效应和研究方法这四个方面综述了相关实证研究成果,分析了气候政策负面效应的缓解措施,以期为制定适合我国的气候政策提供借鉴。     

Taxesversus tradable discharge permits: A review in the light of the U.S. and European experience

The U.S. and West European environmental protection programs have incorporated different economic instruments for controlling pollution. The U.S. has made extensive use of tradable permits of several forms but has never used direct pollution taxes. The countries of the European Community have long used an array of pollution taxes but have never used tradable permits. A review and critique of these experiences and an analysis of the attributes of taxes and tradable permits seeks identify the strengths and weaknesses of each instrument and to provide guidelines for the successful implementation of each system.     

The U.S. Environmental policy experience: A critique with Suggestions for the European Community

This paper recites much of the history of U.S. environmental policy, covering air quality, water quality, hazardous wastes, monitoring and enforcement, integration of environmental considerations into general economic planning, and the issue of federal-state relations. Policies are criticized in terms of excessive cost and lack of effective enforcement, but successful and innovative practices also are identified, especially the use of tradable discharge permits and productive state-federal relationships. Suggestions for European Community policy formulation are made.     

经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响及区域分异——以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例

为评估经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响,寻求源头改善城市环境空气质量的可行路径,以第一阶段实施新空气质量标准的74个城市为例,基于输出导向的数据包络分析模型,以经济和人口指标为输入,以城市环境空气质量指数为输出,计算城市经济增长和人口集聚的整体效率,表征经济增长和人口集聚对城市环境空气质量的影响。结果表明:三大城市群中,京津冀的环境影响比长三角大26.0%,长三角比珠三角大11.2%;省会城市中,中部地区的环境影响最大,东北地区其次,西部地区第三,东部地区最小。快速推进的工业化和城镇化,投资拉动冶金、能源重化工产业和房地产业高速发展,土地财政助推人口密度不断提高,使得大气污染物在城市局地范围内、短时间、大量集中排放,远超城市大气环境容量,是造成城市环境空气质量明显下降的根本原因。改善城市环境空气质量,必须从环境影响源头入手,加快经济转型升级步伐,适度、有序推进人口城镇化。     

Evaluating the joint efficiency of German trade forecasts - a nonparametric multivariate approach

ABSTRACT

I analyse the joint efficiency of export and import forecasts by leading economic research institutes for the years 1970 to 2017 for Germany in a multivariate setting. To this end, I compute, in a first step, multivariate random forests in order to model links between forecast errors and a forecaster’s information set, consisting of several trade and other macroeconomic predictor variables. I use the Mahalanobis distance as performance criterion and, in a second step, permutation tests to check whether the Mahalanobis distance between the predicted forecast errors for the trade forecasts and actual forecast errors is significantly smaller than under the null hypothesis of forecast efficiency. I find evidence for joint forecast inefficiency for two forecasters, however, for one forecaster I cannot reject joint forecast efficiency. For the other forecasters, joint forecast efficiency depends on the examined forecast horizon. I find evidence that real macroeconomic variables as opposed to trade variables are inefficiently included in the analysed trade forecasts. Finally, I compile a joint efficiency ranking of the forecasters.     

Influence of policy,operational and market conditions on seaport efficiency in newly emerging economies: the case of Vietnam

ABSTRACT

Located in Southeast Asia as one of the most dynamic economic regions in the world and close to north-south shipping routes, Vietnam’s seaports play a vital role in promoting its international trade and economic growth. And yet, most ports are small and owned by the public sector. Their performance is subject to various factors relating to government policy, operational and market conditions. Although the Government has been trying to improve the sector’s performance through corporatization, its corporatization model is unique in many ways compared with reform models in other countries. This study seeks to analyse the effects of government policy, operational and market conditions among other factors, on Vietnamese seaports’ efficiency. Double-bootstrap data envelopment analysis (DEA) and univariate and multivariate analyses were conducted using the data sample of 41 ports for years 2015 and 2016. The analysis results show that the factors of production, regional location and reform policy had a significant impact on port performance.