东南亚经济的复苏与重组

近年来，东南亚经济经历了金融危机后的严重衰退、迅速复苏、再陷衰退和又呈复苏的增长轨迹。面对国内经济的急剧波动，东南亚国家政府积极采取措施，大力实施国内经济重组与调整。2004年将是东南亚国家政权更替、经济重组和区域整合的关键一年。     

东南亚国家经济走向复苏

东盟国家经济１９９８年跌至谷低 ,１９９９年以来进入复苏和扩张期 ,主要原因有 :一、改革效应。东南亚经济危机爆发后 ,东盟国家采取了一系列金融改革和结构调整措施 ,使金融市场趋于稳定 ,从而为经济复苏创造了良好条件。金融危机爆发之初 ,泰国、印尼分别接受了国际货币基金组织提供的１７２亿美元和２３０亿美元的援助 ,并按照该组织提出的条件对本国金融业进行了改革 ,有关措施包括关闭一批资不抵债的银行、合并资本不足的银行、加强金融立法、完善监管机制、重组不良债务等 ,银行的呆帐坏帐因此而大减 ,改善了金融机构的经营状况并提…     

东南亚国家金融危机后的经济改革与前瞻

东盟国家自1997－1998年经济金融危机之后，经过金融机构和公司的治理结构改革，在1999－2000年形成了V型复苏，2000年后半年到2001年受到美日经济放慢与衰退的影响，经济复苏受到打击，又呈下降趋势，形成W型经济。在经济金融全球化及新经济蓬勃发展的情况下，单纯的依赖发达国家的出口导向战略将受到世界经济波动的影响，必须进一步采取新的均衡发展战略－发展内需及区域经济，进行经济结构和技术革新，才能取得新的发展机会，再创“东亚经济奇迹”。     

论东盟国家的经济增长：兼论东南亚国家金融危机的原因

东盟国家是亚太地区经济增长较快的地区之一，但东南亚金融危机对东南亚乃至亚洲、欧美的发展造成重大影响。东盟作为经济增长较快的地区之一，为什么在短短的时间内爆发了这场波及全球的金融危机呢？本文试图从经济增长方面作了一些探求。一、东盟国家经济增长概况东盟国家的经济增长开始于60－70年代，在80年代到90年代初得到较快增长，特别是80年代以来，东盟成为世界上最具经济活力的地区受到世界关注。1985年一1992年7年间，泰国经济的年均增长率高达8.5％，新加坡和马来西亚均为6.3％，印尼为5．8％，文莱5.1％，经济相对落后的菲律宾…     

亚洲经济开始全面复苏了吗？

近几个月以来,随着东亚和东南亚国家先后发布一系列令人振奋的经济指标,人们开始纷纷议论亚洲经济已经走上复苏之路。从各国公布的一、二季度经济增长率来看,日本４-６月份实际经济增长率按年率换算达到了０．９％,泰国第一季度的国内生产总值增长率也达到了０９％。而韩国６月份的工业生产按年度换算也达到３％。加之股票市场上从９８年８月到９９年８月,泰国和马来西亚股市上涨了一倍,而汉城和新加坡的股票指数也已超过了９７年中期开始崩溃时的指数;汇市上日元一路走强,突破了１１０日元兑１美元大关。种种迹象表明亚洲经济已经…     

中国西南与东南亚经济合作的基础和前景

中国西南与东南亚经济合作的基础和前景熊大宽一、中国西南与东南亚经济合作的基础与动力中国西南五省区，总面积２５４万平方公里，人口约２亿。东南亚各国总面积４５９万平方公里，人口约４．５亿，是个很有潜力的世界市场。我国西南地区由于地理位置优势，与东南亚的经...     

经济全球化与东南亚经济发展

东南亚国家在20世纪80年代中期之后取得了经济的快速增长。国际货币基金组织和世界银行曾将东南亚的经济业绩归功于新自由主义理论和新宏观经济理论在东南亚的成功实践,亦归因于东南亚各国政府顺应经济全球化要求,在经济领域实行自由化、非制度化和私有化的改革,值得其他发展中国家所效法。但是,1997年突发的在东南亚经济史上前所未有、破坏性极强的金融危机,引起了人们对经济全球化的利益能否公平分享的质疑,促使东南亚各国政府重新认识、辩证地看待主要由发达国家推动的经济全球化,从而制定更加符合本国国情和本民族根本利益的经济发展战略与政策。     

浅谈中国与东南亚国家的国际贸易关系

中国与东南亚国家在出口贸易中的关系一直是经济学界讨论的一个热点问题。根据目前比较流行的两种范式、即“雁行模式”和“贸易竞争关系模式”,对中国与东南亚国家的关系有两种完全不同的解释。目前有一些学者，特别是一些国外学者比较倾向于后一种关系。本文分析了中国与东南亚各国的出口市场份额，出口结构及决定各国出口贸易的因素，认为中国与东南亚各国的经贸关系更多程度上属于产业和技术引进的合作伙伴，良好的东亚经济关系和经济环境是该地区持续发展的一个根本前提。     

Poverty incidence and economic growth in Southeast Asia

The countries of Southeast Asia have achieved very large reductions in absolute poverty incidence over recent decades. This paper examines the relationship between this accomplishment and the rate of economic growth. It develops a time series of available data on the headcount measure of poverty incidence for Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines over the period from the 1960s to 1999, in aggregate and in both rural and urban areas. It then uses this pooled data set to analyze the economic determinants of poverty incidence, the impact of the 1997 economic crisis and the degree to which poverty will be affected by alternative hypothetical recovery paths.     

Regional stock markets and the economic development of Southeast Asia

The paper examines the contribution made by the establishment and operation of a local stock exchange to the economic development of Southeast Asian (SEA) countries. The paper informs investors and policymakers about the current status of SEA stock market development and the associated positive and negative effects of such initiatives. Policymakers have placed a clear focus on SEA stock markets as a primary driver of regional economic growth. However, it is questionable whether SEA is ready for such an ambitious economic initiative, particularly given the reported negative effects of lesser developed stock markets. Despite these negative implications, the benefits appear to outweigh the costs for SEA stock markets. It is perceived that SEA stock markets will drive further economic reform, financial liberalisation, and market integration, promising tremendous benefits for both the region and the international investment community. The paper concludes with questions regarding the efficiency of stock markets in SEA and offers recommendations for further empirical research.     

大国地缘战略与东亚经济合作

影响东亚合作的因素是多方面的，地区内及区域外国家的不同地缘战略诉求是决定该地区经济合作道路和前景的重要因素。不同战略力量的演化和地区战略的矛盾与冲突影响了地区经济合作的深度和未来走向。探索并构建适合地区经济发展的模式是摆在东亚各国面前的严峻课题。     

金融体系结构与经济增长:对东亚国家的启示

金融体系结构对经济增长的作用是一个具有理论和现实意义的问题，直接影响到国家的政策选择。本文从此问题入手，比较了市场导向型金融体系与银行导向型金融体系在促进经济增长方面的作用机制的不同，对广大东亚国家来说，应该根据自身情况大力发展银行体系。     

Nominal effective exchange rate and trade balance adjustment in South Asia countries

In this paper we examine the short-term and long-term determinants of trade balances of five South Asian countries, using quarterly data from 1985 to 1998. The paper confirms the existence of both short run and long run relationship between nominal effective exchange rates (NEER) and trade balances. This paper highlights the differences in the duration and the extent of the J-curve phenomena. Several plausible explanations consistent with our findings are offered.     

Determinants of pollution abatement in developing countries: Evidence from South and Southeast Asia

Developing countries, pa?ticularly those in Asia, are fast adopting industrial pollution control standards similar to those in developed countries. Formal regulation has been greatly hampered, however, by the absence of clear and legally binding regulations; limited institutional capacity; lack of appropriate equipment and trained personnel; and inadequate information on emissions. One would predict highly pollution-intensive production under such conditions. Our research, however, has uncovered strongly contradictory evidence. Despite weak or nonexistent formal regulation, there are many clean plants in the developing countries of South and Southeast Asia. Of course, there are also many plants which are among the world's most serious polluters. What explains such extreme interplant variation? This paper reviews evidence drawn from three empirical studies of plant-level abatement practices conducted 1992–1994.The analyses test the importance of plant characteristics, economic considerations and external pressure in determining environmental performance. The results consistently show that pollution intensity is negatively associated with scale, productive efficiency, and the use of new process technology. It is strongly and positively associated with public ownership, but foreign ownership has no significant effect once other plant characteristics are taken into account. Among external sources of pressure, community action, or informal regulation, emerges as a clear source of interplant differences in all three studies. The results suggest that local income and education are powerful predictors of the effectiveness of informal regulation. They also show that existing formal regulation has measurably beneficial effects, even when it is quite weakly developed.     

The geopolitics of international trade in Southeast Asia

Review of World Economics - Motivated by the historically tense geopolitical situation in Southeast Asia, the paper simulates the potential closure of key maritime waterways in the region...