The combined estimator approach to model transferability and updating

The idea of transferability is to employ in model estimation, fitted model parameters computed from a different data set. Thecombined estimator approach to the transferability problem is expressed as a linear combination of the unbiased direct estimators on the two data sets. The major gain is in variance reduction. The combined estimator is shown to have superior accuracy, in a Mean Square Error sense, to a unbiased direct estimator whenever the transfer bias is relatively small. A test that indicates if the combined estimator is superior to the direct estimator is provided. Variances of the direct estimators are assumed to be known. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to assess the quality of the approximations. The results show that the approximations used are highly conservative. An empirical example of the combined estimator applied to a discrete choice problem is presented.     

Monetary and real shocks in a monetary Union: The Swiss case

We analyze to what extent real and monetary shocks affect price levels and real exchange rates in seven Swiss regions. A structural time series model is set up and estimated using the Kalman filter under two assumptions on the persistence of monetary shocks. We find that the variability of changes in price levels is mainly due to real shocks. The variance of monetary shocks is small but the monetary component of inflation differences across regions differs from zero with some persistence. As the Swiss case shows this does not seem to be a major obstacle to forming a monetary union.We thank Ernst Baltensperger, Tobias Rötheli, and participants at the Econometric Society European Meeting 1994 for stimulating discussions. The paper has also benefitted from constructive comments of two anonymous referees. Both authors gratefully acknowledge financial support provided by the Swiss National Foundation through Grants no: 8210-040206 (T.J.) and 12-40498.94 (C.L.).     

Price determination and dynamic adjustments: An inverse demand system approach to meat products in the United States

In this study the process of retail meat price determination is depicted in the form of an inverse demand system taking into consideration the dynamic adjustments present in monthly consumption data. The general dynamic framework identifies both long run and short run effects in a systematic manner and allows direct estimation of the long run price and scale flexibilities that are consistent with theory. The empirical application based on monthly U.S. meat products data provides reasonable and promising results.The authors are senior econometrician, Department of Risk Management, TRS, American Express Co., Phoenix, and assistant professor, Department of Applied Economics, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, respectively. The work was performed when the first author was an assistant research scientist at the Center for Agricultural and Rural Development, Department of Economics, Iowa State University, Ames. Journal Paper No. J-15784 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 3109.     

Portuguese emigration 1958-1985: some empirical evidence

Supplying work in the home country or abroad must be seen as the result of the same decisional process. If that is true, the same set of variables should be used to explain the participation in the labor market and the emigration rates.Based upon empirical results, we discuss some of the traditional conclusions of the economic literature. Our empirical results, for example, show that: 1) there is a strong support for considering home wages and the wages in the country of destination asymmetrically, 2) imperfections in the capital markets seem to play an important role when workers must pay for their moving expenses and 3) there is a differential in coefficients between the period before 1974 and after that date, as 1974 is the year most of the Central European countries changed their immigration policies.     

Quarterly US unemployment: Cycles,seasons and asymmetries

This paper documents three stylized facts for the quarterly unemployment rate in the United States. Firstly, unemployment is asymmetric over the business cycle, i.e. it rises sharply in recessions and it falls slowly in expansions. Secondly, its seasonal fluctuations are not constant across the two business cycle stages in the sense that there is less seasonality in recession periods. Thirdly, the effect of shocks to the unemployment rate in expansions seem transitory, while this effect is permanent in recessions. Some implications of these stylized facts for empirical macroeconomics and seasonal adjustment are discussed.     

Alcohol content and demand for alcoholic beverages: A system approach

This paper examines how alcohol content affects the consumption of alcoholic beverages in Finland. Three different quality hypotheses are studied and compared: Fisher and Shell, Theil, and an additive one. The comparison of the hypotheses is based on quality elasticities implied by the hypotheses. The results show that, under all hypotheses, alcohol content positively affects the demand for alcoholic beverages, and this effect depends negatively on income. The results of the comparison of the hypotheses show that the additive fits the data best. However, the other hypotheses are almost as good: Fisher and Shell's hypothesis better than Theil's.I would like to thank K. Koskela, A. Nyberg, M. Salo, M. Stenius, and I. Suoniemi for their useful comments and suggestions. The author bears sole responsibility for any remaining errors.     

Usefulness of linear transformations in multivariate time-series analysis

Much progress has been made in recent years in multivariate time-series analysis. In this paper we summarize some of the methodological developments that are particularly relevant to empirical economics and highlight especially the usefulness of linear transformations in analyzing multivariate time series. The topics considered include vector ARMA models, principal component analysis, scalar component models, canonical correlation analyses, co-integration, and unit-root tests. We illustrate the methods considered by an example using Taiwan's interest-rate series and provide critiques of these developments.     

Fixed effects with interpersonal and intertemporal covariance

The paper considers the estimation of a fixed effects time series-cross section model where errors have both unspecified interpersonal and intertemporal covariance. Efficient estimators in the form of GLS are suggested, which can be implemented on the data in their actual form or in deviations from time-means. As an empirical example, the determinants of new residential construction activity in the New England states of the US during the 80's are investigated. Results show substantial sensitivity to changes in the interest rate and the unemployment rate, whilst responses to changes in income are more muted. Long term factors related to the region are also influential.     

Structural change in the United States: Social accounting estimates for 1982–1988

During the 1980's, extensive structural adjustments took place in the U.S. economy. This paper uses estimates of sectorally detailed social accounting matrices to evaluate the changes in receipt and expenditure patterns, including interindustry linkages, over the 1982–1988 period. Among other effects, our results reveal increasing service orientation, shifts in energy use, and increased import and foreign investment dependence. Detailed evidence on direct and indirect demand linkages indicates large shifts in the composition of government expenditure and private investment, the latter being intensified by declines in the rate of domestic capital formation.We would like to thank Greg Alward for the 1982 IMPLAN input-output data, Norman Bakka for the National Income and Product Account Data, Ken Hanson for helpful suggestions, Mark Planting for 1985 BEA input-output data, Valerie Personick for the activity output data, and two anonymous referees for helpful comments.     

The impact of wages on job search in a transition economy - evidence with data from Eastern Germany

This study is concerned with the impact of wages on job search decisions in Eastern Germany immediately after reunification and in later periods. Several concepts measuring wage effects are used. The results of bivariate probit estimates with incomplete classification for a global and local job search show that the wage level had stronger effects on the former than on the latter job search decision directly after the collapse of the Berlin Wall. The degree of satisfaction with current income and the earnings capacities were irrelevant for the search decision. Low-paid East German workers had a higher propensity to search for a new job in the old Länder than others. This is contrary to the misleading result of isolated estimates about the job search in Western Germany. In the subsequent periods the situation has changed. The difference of earnings capacities between Eastern and Western Germany, specific East German wage premiums and intraregional wage inequality affect the decision to search for a new job in the west.For helpful comments I thank Michael Burda, Knut Gerlach, Robert A. Hart, Stefan Niermann, Liz Regan and two referees.     

Stock prices,production and interest rates: Comparison of three European countries with the USA

This paper investigates the relationships between stock returns, changes in production, and changes in interest rates in three European countries: France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. The results obtained using annual data are much more conclusive than those obtained using quarterly data. Stock returns are affected by current changes in interest rates and by future changes in production. The dependence on changes in interest rates seems to be higher than on changes in production. Furthermore, the influence of future changes in production on stock returns diminishes substantially when contemporaneous changes in interest rates are taken into account. With reference to these points, the European markets behave in a similar fashion, but are in sharp contrast with the U.S. market.I am very grateful to Kay Davidson, Patric Hendershott and two anonymous referees for useful comments and suggestions. I am solely responsible for all remaining errors.     

Seasonal cointegration,common seasonals,and forecasting seasonal series

Seasonal cointegration generalizes the idea of cointegration to processes with unit roots at frequencies different from 0. Here, common seasonals, also a dual notion of common trends, is adopted for the seasonal case. The features are demonstrated in exemplary models for German and U.K. data. An evaluation of the predictive value of accounting for seasonal cointegration shows that seasonal cointegration may be difficult to exploit to improve predictive accuracy even in cases where seasonal non-cointegration is clearly rejected on statistical grounds. The findings from the real-world examples are corroborated by Monte Carlo simulation.Part of this paper was written while the author was visiting professor at the University of California San Diego.     

Success breeds success. The dynamics of the innovation process

This paper presents a dynamic random effects probit model for the realization of private firms' product and process innovations. We estimate the model with panel data collected by the Ifo Institute in Munich. The data covers the period between 1979 and 1986 and includes 301 firms of the West German manufacturing sector. It turns out that firms' probabilities of innovation depend on market structure, demand and cost expectations, unobserved heterogeneity, and realized innovations in the previous year. The positive significant influence of past innovations indicates that there is strong state dependence in the innovation process. This result supports the success breeds success hypothesis suggesting a positive impact of innovative success to further innovations in the following years.We would like to thank the Ifo-Institute for providing us with the data of the Ifo-Konjunkturtest. Special thanks to Georg Licht and Horst Rottmann for preparing the data. Helpful comments were received from participants of seminars in Mannheim, Hannover, and Nürnberg, especially from Dietmar Harhoff. We are particularly indebted to an anonymous referee for valuable suggestions. Financial support of the DFG is gratefully acknowledged.     

Productivity,earnings, and profit sharing — An econometric analysis of alternative models

The theoretical status of the relationship between productivity, wages, and profit sharing (PS) is poor. Only some alternative hypotheses can be formulated. From these explanations six different econometric models are derived. Using data of the German Socio-Economic Panel the models are estimated and tests and indicators are employed to choose the best model. Our investigation speaks in favour of hybrid simultaneous Tobit models where the level of profit sharing is positively correlated with productivity which induces positive wage effects on the one hand. But on the other hand the level of wages is also relevant to the question whether a firm introduces or decides to continuePS and which amount ofPS should be paid.What is obvious is not always true and introspection is a notoriously unreliable guide to empirical magnitudes. Blinder (1990, p.2)     

Alternative interpretations of hours information in an econometric model of labour supply

This paper examines the labour supply behaviour of married women in France. A sequence of models is specified and estimated which incorporate different amounts of information on observed weekly hours. In all models the distinction is drawn between search and non-participation among non-workers. We provide extensive specification diagnostics, including Heckman-Andrews tests, as well as Hausman tests for the comparison of different handlings of the hours information. It turns out that distinguishing between part-time, full-time and long hours gives virtually the same results as treating observed hours as reflecting desired hours.     

A family of inverse demand systems and choice of functional form

Barten's (1992) analysis of choice of functional form for quantity-dependent demand systems is extended to price-dependent or inverse demand systems. Alternative inverse demand systems combining the features of the Rotterdam inverse demand and almost ideal inverse demand systems are examined. Choice of functional form is made through a synthetic model which under appropriate restrictions yields the different inverse demand systems. The synthetic model itself can also be considered a more flexible specification.     

Dynamically inefficient equilibria in the Auerbach-Kotlikoff model

The issue addressed in this paper is how robust dynamically efficient steady state equilibria in a 55 periods overlapping generations economy are to changes in the parametrization of the model. Numerical simulations are used to detect parameter constellations which lead to non Pareto optimal market solutions with the capital stock in excess of the so called Golden Rule level. The results suggest that rather unplausible values of the pure rate of time preference, the intertemporal elasticity of substitution or the annual population growth rate are required to obtain dynamic inefficiency.I would like to thank Prof. Roger Farmer as well as Albert Jäger for reading and commenting on earlier versions of this paper. The numerical model used in this work was programmed by Christian Keuschnigg. I am grateful to him for supplying me generously with his software.