Contrived dualism and government policy

If the government's goal is to maximiza current employment (as the International Labour Office has advised for Columbia), family farms become the desirable land tenure system. This article suggests policies by which family farms, and non-mechanized agricultural techniques, can be encouraged. The context is Columbian agriculture which faces distortions in factor prices, and the article suggests policies by which these distortions can be corrected to favour family farms. Both the prices of labour and of capital can be adjusted by the government, a process called ‘contrived dualism’.     

失地农民就业问题的经济学思考

随着我国经济的快速发展,在项目建设中政府征用了大量的土地,由于农村的社会保障体系不完善,农民失去了惟一的保障途径——土地,导致大量失地农民转化为城市贫民。而且随着城市化建设力度的加大,土地征用仍然不可避免,失地农民队伍将越来越大,失地农民的生活和出路问题也会越来越多。所以失地农民就业问题已经成为政府及经济学界亟待研究的重点课题。本文针对我国失地农民就业问题进行了经济学分析。     

Prospects for the socialist transition of agriculture in Zimbabwe

In Zimbabwe, where a land reform programme is the chief socialist-oriented domestic policy pursued by the government, the issue of land is likely to remain the central political issue. The government's resettlement and co-operative programmes are likely to be jeopardized by the inherited agrarian legacy and fears of provoking white commercial farmers. Unless the state can intervene and acquire the unused and underutilized commercial farms, any land available is likely to be poor and require high investment to facilitate resettlement. To meet the needs and demands of the peasantry will require a political will and foresight which in the immediate future is likely to be constrained by a number of external and internal economic and political factors.     

Farm size,land yields and the agricultural production function: An analysis for fifteen developing countries

The paper analyzes the relationship between factor inputs, land yields and labor productivity for farms of different size on the basis of FAO farm management data for 15 developing countries. For all but three countries a strong negative correlation is found between farm size on the one side, and factor inputs and yields per hectare on the other. The fitting of unconstrained production functions to the above data suggests that in only few cases the decline in yields for increasing farm size can be attributed to decreasing returns to scale. The higher yields observed in small farms are mainly to be ascribed to higher factor inputs and to a more intensive use of land. Therefore, where conspicuous labor surpluses exist, the superiority of small farming provides solid arguments in favor of land redistribution. Such an agrarian reform would determine higher output, higher labor absorption and a more equitable income distribution, thus contributing in a decisive manner to the alleviation of rural poverty. The paper also provides estimates of cross-sectional production functions for the 15 countries analyzed. Empirical relations are found between the output elasticities of land, labor and intermediate inputs and physical indicators of their scarcity. The paper concludes by proposing a simple method for deriving a long-term production function for agriculture.     

农村劳动力回流、就业选择与农地转出——基于千村调查的经验研究

农村劳动力回流趋势增强,不可避免对农地流转产生影响。文章在理论层面深入剖析了回流劳动力的就业选择与农地转出关系,并采用上海财经大学"千村调查"的数据资料,实证检验了农村劳动力回流特征变化和回流劳动力就业选择对农地转出的影响。研究发现,受非农就业不稳定的推力作用和与家人团聚的拉力作用,越来越多的外出劳动力选择回流,西部外出劳动力回流率最高,达到47.2%。回流劳动力的农地转出率普遍高于非回流劳动力的农地转出率,回流劳动力从事非农生产的就业选择对农地转出存在促进效应,而兼业和务农的选择对农地转出存在抑制效应,这意味着回流农村劳动力并非一定会选择农业生产,也可能选择在更小的地理半径内从事非农就业,并且长期外出从事技术工的经历进一步增强了劳动力回流对农地转出的抑制效应。虽然回流劳动力更倾向非农就业,但回流劳动力规模的扩大,使得兼业和纯务农的比例增加,对农地转出的抑制效应呈增强趋势。研究还发现,个人特征、家庭因素、社会网络也是影响劳动力就业选择和农地转出的重要因素,基层政府和地方政府在推动非农就业的政策合力上存在部分抵消,对农地转出产生了抑制作用。文章为农地流转进程缓慢提供了新的解释,推进农地流转需要关注农村劳动力流动特征新变化,同时兼顾各层级政策目标的衔接性。     

Small‐family farm types: Examples from Northern Namibia and implications for agrarian reform in South Africa

Small‐farmer types in southern Africa differ significantly in terms of factor‐input patterns and support structures. On peasant family farms (PFF) cash input costs are very low, non‐household labour is sourced largely from communal work groups through kinship ties, and support services needed to sustain production are minimal. By contrast, on commercial family farms (CFF) cash input costs are high, little non‐family labour is used and strong support services are necessary. The first objective of this article is to point out and emphasise the different situations which exist in these two small‐family farm types, based on data from farm studies in Northern Namibia. The second objective is to extract the implications of these differences in relation to development paths under land reform. This is based on experiences of the outcome of land reform in Latin America. It is concluded that the agrarian situation in post‐land reform South Africa will comprise a mix of large‐scale commercial farms and small‐scale farms of both the PFF and CFF types. It will be necessary to recognise the existence of each of these types and their interrelationships, to monitor their development, to understand their different production situations and to cater for their different needs.     

户籍门槛、发展型政府与人口城镇化政策——基于大中城市面板数据的经验研究

文章从制度变迁视角分析了户籍改革难以突破的原因,在发展主义理念的指引下,如果户籍改革对地方经济增长或财政收支产生负面影响,地方政府可能会拖延或阻碍改革进程。基于大中城市面板数据的实证研究显示,特大城市提高门槛对地方人均产出有正面影响,户籍改革动力最弱。其他城市虽然可以通过降低户籍门槛提高人均产出水平,但率先放开户籍制度可能引发流动人口大量涌入抵消政策效果,地方政府的户籍改革动力随着城市人口规模增长逐步下降。同时,户籍人口增长会带来财政支出的显著增加,为避免户籍化政策对财政支出产生压力,地方政府会通过户籍门槛对流动人口进行筛选,将对财政收入贡献较低或产生明显财政支出的群体排斥在户籍门槛之外。本文认为中国大中城市的户籍制度存在刚性,可以通过收回地方制定落户政策的权力强制推动户籍制度改革,或利用财政政策降低户籍化成本,激励地方政府推动改革。     

Interdependent investments in attached and movable assets under insecure land rights

The literature concludes that insecure land rights cause farms to make suboptimal capital investment in attached assets, but not in movable assets, implicitly assuming attached and movable assets to be independent. However, the two asset types can be interdependent because the operational efficiency of movable assets, such as farm machinery, typically depends on field conditions, such as land fragmentation. Thus, investment in attached assets may affect investment in movable assets via farm infrastructure. I develop a conceptual model to explain why tenure insecurity may lead a farm to under-invest in attached assets and over-invest in low-efficiency movable assets relative to the secure-land-right scenario. To quantify the economic significance of investment inefficiency, I collect unique survey data on large-scale farms, for which machinery is of particular importance in production, in Southwest China where land tenure remained insecure in 2016. Simulations based on the large-farm survey data suggest that the suboptimal investment occurs given fairly small probabilities of losing some farmland and results in considerable economic losses. The findings have important policy implications regarding land reforms and farm infrastructure in developing economies.     

利益冲突与制度扭曲——论政府在经济发展和转型中的作用

本文在McGuire和Olson(1996)的基础上进一步讨论了政府在经济活动中的地位和作用.我们发现,即使是具有共容利益的政府,其与社会之间依然存在着利益冲突.因此,政府的存在总会造成一定的制度扭曲,使经济处于非最优效率状态.本文还研究了政府与社会之间的利益冲突在转型经济中的表现.研究表明,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会随着经济体制的改进而得到强化,从而使新制度受到更大的扭曲.另外,政府与社会之间的利益冲突会对经济体制的优化产生不同的影响,但最终都会妨碍制度变迁达至最优状态.本文的研究实际上指出了政治体制改革对经济发展和转型的重要意义.我们也指出,在转型经济中,政治体制改革的时机选择不当可能会导致结果事与愿违     

试论政府在经济转型和改革过程中的作用——中、俄、印三国之比较分析

经济改革和转型过程中,政府应该发挥怎样的作用,是学界和决策层多年来一直特别关注的问题。与改革或转型的策略及路径相联系,有关政府职能的讨论可以大致分为以下三类观点:亲善市场论、国家推动发展论和市场增进论。中国、俄罗斯和印度三个国家在改革的初始条件、改革方式及改革进程上既有相似之处,又有完全不同的地方,但这三国都经历了并且仍在继续着经济体制改革和转型,而且三国的经济改革和转型到目前为止都取得了一定成就,三国的经济发展前景也为世界所看好。本文对亲善市场论、国家推动发展论和市场增进论进行了分析比较,考察了中国、俄罗斯及印度改革过程中政府作用的得失,论证了政府在经济改革和发展进程中具有异乎寻常的关键性作用,它是改革和发展的核心内容之一,决定了改革和发展能否顺利地、“帕累托改进式”地向前进行。     

Beyond the crisis in Zimbabwe: Sorting out the land question

The depth of political and economic despair in Zimbabwe is beyond dispute. This paper situates the unfortunate picture in its historical context – drawing particular attention to the role of land in setting the country on its tragic trajectory, and showing how land remains the most fundamental problem precluding the restoration of political coherence and economic recovery. It argues that political and economic stability will be elusive until there is definitive closure to Zimbabwe's unpleasant past and at the same time clarity about property rights. It offers in addition some necessary first steps for the day when a new government is finally able to address and rectify the current chaos.     

Land Reform and Farm Production in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam*

Economic theory suggests that increased tenure security will lead to increased productivity. However, existing literature on the relationship between land tenure and land productivity provides inconclusive evidence. The present paper analyzes the impact of land reform on chemical fertilizer use and land productivity of rural farms in the Northern Uplands of Vietnam using a panel dataset collected before and after land reform. The results show that land reform has positive effects on both chemical fertilizer use and land productivity, but the level of influence is different between land privatization and land titling. Relevant policy implications are thus derived for the promotion of farm production in the region.     

The land question in KwaZulu: Is land reform necessary?

Land reform in the ‘homelands’ depends on whether or not a viable economy can emerge in these areas. If not, the only alternative may be to accept the failure of rural development and follow the new state policy line of ‘positive urbanization’. Outside the limits of state policy, the apparent consensus on freehold tenure may be illusory. Black‐held priorities for land appear to differ at base from those held up by white groups. White business interests want to see large‐scale commercial farming, while blacks want the free and secure right to hold and deal in land, together with a right to use rural land for residential purposes.

There is renewed international interest in land reform. Some of the Far Eastern market economies have obtained startling rises in production under a reform regime of owner‐operated mini‐farms. It is doubtful if this type of reform is appropriate in KwaZulu, where the tenure system already strongly protects the universal right to hold land, and where the community's small role in land matters is still important to local self‐organization capacity. More appropriate models might be found in Zimbabwe and China, which have also achieved sharp rises in small‐farm production without full freehold tenure. Zimbabwe's village committee system recognizes existing land rights and allows for substantial local option. In China, decentralization policies seem to be encouraging a new rural economy in which most of the population may eventually be absorbed into self‐generated nonfarm activity. This kind of enterprise‐led rural development, may offer a possible pattern for KwaZulu.     

合肥市土地整理可持续发展评价

土地整理是现阶段实现我国耕地总量动态平衡的主要途径,是促进经济迅速发展的重要手段,而其可持续性发展正是化解土地利用、耕地减少和人地矛盾等问题的重要保障。文章从建立土地整理可持续性发展评价指标体系入手,对调查数据进行整理并运用TOPSIS法分析了2000-2012年合肥市土地整理可持续发展性,得出合肥市土地整理可持续发展总体上呈现缓慢上升趋势,但发展性较弱,近年来土地整理可持续发展初见成效,为合肥市新一轮土地整理提供参考。     

"神器"的黯然:日本终身雇佣制改革

20世纪90年代以来,日本经济曾陷入长期低迷,广受赞誉的日本企业雇佣管理制度——终身雇佣制也开始受到广泛质疑。面对激变的经营环境,日本企业开始纷纷推出改革举措,其主要特征是:引进绩效主义、彻底改革有日本经营"神器"之称的终身雇佣体制。经营环境决定企业的经营方式,日本企业的此次雇佣体制的制度创新尚处于初始阶段,终身雇佣制的"外壳"仍将继续存在一段时间。     

整理农村宅基地启动农村土地资本化运作探析

我国城乡二元结构现状严重,发展农村经济迫在眉睫。农村土地这一极具配置能力的资源被闲置或低水平利用,严重制约我国农村经济发展。通过整理农村宅基地启动农村土地资本化,既实现农村土地集约化,又推动农民转变落后的生产方式以及粗放式经济发展模式,提高农民收入水平。本文探析了该模式的依据、意义、具体运作及保障机制。保障该模式的机制有:深化农村土地制度的改革,加强城乡劳动力就业一体化,完善招商引资机制。     

Is there any gain from social security privatization?

Increasing calls for a social security reform of switching from the pay-as-you-go (PAYG) system to a funded system has been seen in recent decades. This paper examines the effect of this reform on capital accumulation and the welfare of each generation. Three methods are used to finance the pension debt, government debt financing, tax financing, and government asset financing. With government debt or tax financing, the market equilibrium remains unchanged and all generations are as well off in the new system as in the PAYG system. Thus, switching from the PAYG system to a funded system is neutral. With government asset financing, the interest rate will decrease, private capital will increase, but the total output may either increase or decrease. The welfare effect is also ambiguous in general, depending on the rate of return of government assets. With plausible parameters, our simulation shows that the reform will lower the interest rate, increase private capital, and lower government capital in the short run, but raise government capital and increase output in the long run.     

Tying governments' hands in commodity taxation

In the 1970s, taxation of 'windfall' profits from primary productsand intervention in trade and production tempted governmentsinto expansionary fiscal policies, whilst stifling the privatesector and depressing growth. However, the experience of themid-1990s coffee boom has so far been more favourable: thoseAfrican countries which liberalised and left a large share ofthe 'windfall' with the private sector, and which committedthemselves to fiscal austerity via adjustment programmes, haveshown better results in terms of fiscal stability, private sectorresponses and economic growth than countries which did not reform.These findings suggest that constraints on discretionary governmentpolicies are desirable, and that domestic institutions and internationalcommitments could serve this purpose.     

土地利用规划社会环境影响评价——以浙江省杭州市为例

土地利用规划是国家为了提高土地资源利用效率,以优化土地资源配置为目的的一项重要举措,对于改善土地资源的利用现状、增加农民收入水平和推动农业的发展都有重要的作用。本文结合浙江省杭州市土地利用规划实例,通过探讨土地利用规划社会环境影响评价的方式,对土地利用规划的社会经济环境影响进行了分析与总结,并提出了减轻土地利用规划社会经济环境影响的措施。     

Strategies for fiscal consolidation in Japan

Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary balance through lower social transfers and government spending and a higher VAT is the most viable option and has a smaller negative impact on growth than other fiscal measures; (ii) achieving primary balance is not sufficient to stabilize the net debt ratio; (iii) prefunding future aging costs provides greater long-term benefits compared with less front-loaded strategies; (iv) tax reform involving shifting from corporate taxation to consumption taxation could mitigate the short-term output losses associated with fiscal consolidation; (v) the spillovers to the rest of the world from consolidation in Japan are positive in the medium term, but modest.