Estimation of the East African Community's trade benefits from promoting intra‐regional trade

In the literature on economic integration, the optimum currency area (OCA) theory says that there should be a high degree of trade between potential members of a monetary union for them to benefit from the use of a single currency. This study uses an augmented gravity model of trade to estimate the East African Community's (EAC) trade effects, as this community decided to participate in a monetary union by 2024. The study uses the fixed effect filter (FEF) estimator, which follows a two‐step approach and outperforms the standard fixed effects (FE) estimator. The results indicate that EAC has the potential to increase trade among partner states by 122% more than expected from the normal trade levels. The study, therefore, supports the ongoing East African Monetary Union process. However, to improve the likelihood of creating a more sustainable monetary union, the study recommends these countries to primarily focus on the full implementation of the customs union and common market steps. The main contribution of this study is that it provides robust estimates of the EAC's effects on intra‐regional trade using more recent data and updated econometric techniques.     

A social network analysis of the structure and evolution of intra‐African trade

We used social network analysis to examine the country attributes and patterns of intra‐African trade between 2002 and 2017. The results showed that, generally, trade networks in Africa have become denser, and have the characteristics of the core‐periphery structure and small world phenomenon. Trade imbalances are widely found among African countries with the evidence that structure holes exist in intra‐African trade networks highlighted by the motif detectors. Using Quadratic Assignment Procedure, we found that countries that possess closer economic, geographic and cultural distance, but longer institutional distance, are more likely to form trade networks. However, many countries and the regional economic communities on the continent, have not adequately manifested these favourable characteristics for enhancing intra‐African trade. The implications are proposed that countries should develop their strategies, expedite structural adjustment, and foster competitive industries to cope with the external competition and seize opportunities of regional integration brought by the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement. It is also critical to efficiently address the overlapping problems of regional economic communities and intensify their coordination with AfCFTA.     

Indeterminacy with small externalities: The role of non-separable preferences

In this paper we consider a Ramsey one-sector model with non-separable homothetic preferences, endogenous labor and productive external effects arising from average levels of capital and labor. We show that indeterminacy cannot arise when there are only capital externalities but that it does occur when there are only labor external effects. We prove that sunspot fluctuations are fully consistent with small market imperfections and realistic calibrations for the elasticity of capital–labor substitution (including the Cobb-Douglas specification) provided the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption and the elasticity of labor supply are large enough.     

Financial distress and non‐executive director compensation: Evidence from state‐owned enterprises in South Africa post King III

Using a sample of South African state‐owned enterprises (SOEs), we examine the pre‐ and post‐period impact of King III on non‐executive director (NED) compensation with emphasis on financially distressed SOEs. This paper adopts a difference‐in‐differences analysis technique with repeated measures as the basis for testing the hypotheses. The revised Altman Z‐score model which incorporates features unique to emerging markets is used to measure financial distress. Our findings indicate that SOEs that adopted King III will increase NED compensation when the firm has a positive performance and will severely penalize NED when the firm faces financial distress. This study highlights the importance of well‐crafted corporate governance policies. It further sheds light on the importance of King III and how its implementation may prove vital for the success of an enterprise.     

The Declining Value‐relevance of Accounting Information and Non‐Information‐based Trading: An Empirical Analysis*

Recently, a growing body of literature has suggested that financial statements have lost their value‐relevance because of a shift from a traditional capital‐intensive economy to a high‐technology, service‐oriented economy. These conclusions are based on studies that find a temporal decline in the association between stock prices and accounting information (earnings and book values). This paper empirically tests a theoretical prediction arising from the noisy rational expectations equilibrium model that suggests that the decline could be driven by non‐information‐based (NIB) trading activity, because such trading reduces the ability of stock prices to reflect accounting information. Specifically, Dontoh, Radhakrishnan, and Ronen (2004) show that when NIB trading increases, the R²s of a regression of stock price on accounting information declines. Our empirical tests confirm this prediction; that is, the decline in the association between stock prices and accounting information as measured by R²s is driven by an increase in NIB trading.     

The role of innovation and opportunity in bilateral OECD trade performance

This paper investigates the specialization pattern in terms of technology and exports and examines the role of innovation intensity and technological opportunity in determining bilateral trade at the aggregate and sectoral level. Some of the major findings are: At the aggregate level, innovation intensity and technological opportunity has positive and significant impact on bilateral trade performance especially during the 1990s. At the sectoral level, innovation intensity affects bilateral trade performance positively mainly in the high-technology sectors. There is also a positive and significant relationship between technological opportunity and bilateral trade for five of the eighteen sectors, which are the high-technology sectors. JEL no. F14, C31, O33     

Trade‐Induced Unemployment: The Case of Post‐Apartheid South Africa

This paper analyses the link between changes in trade flows and labour demand in post‐apartheid South Africa (1994–2006). Although this is not the first research with regard to this topic, it is one of the few that uses a consistent trade framework. Based on a three‐dimensional Heckscher–Ohlin trade model, a theoretical framework is constructed to analyse this link. Whereas it is impossible to test the theoretical link directly because of data limitations, an indirect econometric test supports the findings of the model. This implies that the combination of increased trade and labour market rigidities was unfavourable for labour opportunities.     

贸易救济信息系统的架构与中国贸易救济信息系统的完善

贸易救济信息系统的架构应该包括前期的预警机制、中期的运行决策机制和后续的跟踪机制.目前中国的产业预警机制尚有不足,贸易救济跟踪机制的工作模式还比较落后,还没有建立贸易救济的中期运行决策机制,因此,需要进一步完善贸易救济预警机制、开发贸易救济中期决策机制、升级改造贸易救济后续跟踪机制.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

The role of the Spanish imperial state in the mining‐led growth of Bourbon Mexico's economy1

Colonial Mexico's economy experienced a long phase of growth during the eighteenth century. Around 1800, silver exports and fiscal surplus remittances from the colony rose to unprecedented levels. We study the contribution of the Spanish imperial state's policy to the expansion of silver production and the leading role of mining in economic growth and its fiscal implications. We find evidence to support a more favourable view of both the mining sector and the imperial state than that commonly presented in the literature. The interruption of colonial ‘mining‐led growth’ helps to explain the ‘lost decades’ for the economic development of Mexico after independence.     

On expectations‐driven business cycles in economies with production externalities: A comment

Eusepi (2009, International Journal of Economic Theory 5, pp. 9–23) analytically finds that a one‐sector real business cycle model may exhibit positive co‐movement between consumption and investment when the equilibrium wage‐hours locus is positively sloped and steeper than the household’s labor supply curve. However, we show that this condition does not imply that expectations‐driven business cycles will emerge in Eusepi's model. Specifically, a positive news shock about future productivity improvement leads to an aggregate recession whereby output, employment, consumption and investment all fall in the announcement period.     

Role of Information on Consumers’ Willingness‐to‐pay for Genetically‐modified Rice with Health Benefits: An Application to China

Despite their potential health benefits, the controversial nature surrounding the use of GM technology in biofortified crops remains a subject of discussion. This paper investigates the role of information on willingness‐to‐pay for folate‐biofortified rice in a Chinese folate‐deficient region. We conducted second price auctions with 252 women of childbearing age, split up into two target groups based on street (n = 132, non‐student sample) or school auctions (n = 120, student sample). Notwithstanding a general positive effect of folate‐related information (i.e. content, benefits and regional situation), evidence reveals that the non‐student sample is less concerned about GM technology. The results also provide insight into serial position effects in conflicting GM information. Whereas participants in the non‐student sample are more prone to a primacy bias when receiving both positive and negative information, an alarmist reaction is observed in the student sample. This study highlights the need for segmented, targeted communication strategies on biofortification.     

上海市信息产业R&D机构的空间集聚研究

随着上海信息产业的发展,与信息产业相关的研发机构数量也大幅增加,达到了一定的规模,在空间上出现了向某些地区的集聚现象。本文对上海市信息产业研发机构的空间分布和集聚特征进行分析,发现上海市信息产业研发机构的分布受企业原有布局,政府政策导向以及科研资源等因素影响,表现出了分布的不均衡性与专业化集聚显著等特点。     

China's Free Trade Ports: Effective Action Against the Threat of De‐globalization

With sluggish external demand and increasing trade protectionism by the USA and the European Union, China is facing severe challenges in implementing its deeper, ongoing reforms. To respond actively to such challenges, the Communist Party of China's 19th National Congress proposed to “promote a new pattern of all‐round opening up.” In particular, the establishment of free trade ports is considered an important means to realize deeper integration with the world economy. This paper discusses the background, the motivation, the possible challenges as well as a feasible path for the successful implementation of free trade ports in China. Based on the international experience, the construction of free trade ports in China requires freer trade in goods, high mobility of talent and free capital flow.     

Macroeconomic Effects of Commodity Price Shocks in a Low‐income Economy: The Case of Tobacco in Malawi

A major concern for developing economies is a dependence on commodities when their prices are volatile as a major change in the international commodity price can have important implications for economic growth. While some cross‐country studies exist, there is lack of country specific studies that take into account the different characteristics of low‐income economies. This paper contributes to the growing literature by considering the case of Malawi and the macroeconomic impact of price shocks in its major export crop of tobacco. Using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach on quarterly Malawian data from 1980:1 to 2012:4, the paper establishes that a positive tobacco price shock has a significant positive impact on the country's gross domestic product, decreasing consumer prices and inducing real exchange rate appreciation. The results are robust to alternative specifications of a SVAR on difference stationary data and cointegrating VAR. The cointegrating VAR confirms the existence of a long run‐relationship among the variables and causality that runs from tobacco prices.     

Rise of Cross‐border E‐commerce Exports in China

China's cross‐border e‐commerce industry has demonstrated stable and rapid development thanks to the implementation of appropriate policy support and the progressive establishment of e‐commerce platforms. The industry's prosperity suggests unique advantages of cross‐border e‐commerce, which are a result of promoting industrial transformation and accelerating economic restructuring. Due to asymmetric information and insufficient data, little research has been conducted on the current status and the trends of the industry as well as the magnitude of risk in cross‐border e‐commerce. Using the cross‐border e‐commerce hosting service database of BizArk, the present study has constructed an index for China's export e‐commerce prosperity and magnitude of risk which reveals that the industry: (i) generally presents a tendency of solid growth; (ii) has had a relatively stable situation for logistics facilitation but a drastic fluctuation in customs facilitation; (iii) has gradually shifted to competing for cheaper and more efficient marketing techniques as well as channels; and (iv) has experienced a remarkable amelioration of risk magnitude.