A sectoral analysis of the financial instability hypothesis

Hyman Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis (FIH) is applied to various North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) industry groups, and it is found that some sectors develop much more closely in accordance with the FIH than others. Minsky categorized firms based on the relationship between cash flow and debt service requirements: hedge finance units, whose operating revenues are adequate to service current interest and principal on their debt; speculative finance units, which can meet interest payments but cannot pay down principal; and Ponzi finance units, which cannot meet current interest payments. The FIH is related to, as well as supportive of, Austrian Business Cycle (ABC) theory, because interest rates are negatively correlated with the proportion and market value of speculative firms in several sectors.     

Contingent capital,capital structure and investment

We examine the interaction between investment and financing policies in a dynamic model for a firm with existing assets-in-place and a growth option, of which investment cost is financed with equity and contingent convertible bonds (CoCos). We attempt to clarify how CoCos impact on investment timing, capital structure and inefficiencies arising from debt overhang and asset substitution. We show that there is a conversion ratio (the fraction of equity allocated to CoCo holders upon conversion) to eliminate the inefficiencies. Our conclusions predict that debt leverage decreases with investment option payoff factor and the average appreciation rate of the cash flow. In contrast to traditional corporate finance theory saying that a firm's value decreases globally with business risk, our model indicates that it might first decrease and then increase with asset volatility.     

数字金融如何影响企业现金持有？

基于2011—2020年中国上市企业数据和城市层面的数字普惠金融指数,考察了数字金融对企业现金持有的影响。研究发现,数字金融发展显著增加了区域内企业的现金持有,且数字金融分指标中除了覆盖广度和数字化程度外,二级指标中的数字支付和互联网信贷业务均会显著增加企业现金持有。进一步分析发现,数字金融通过提高经营活动现金流、抑制企业杠杆率和降低债务融资等机制增加了企业现金持有。此外,对于规模较小、民营和弱银企关系的企业而言,数字金融对企业现金持有的影响更显著。研究结论丰富了数字金融发展的经济后果,也拓展了现金持有理论的分析框架。     

Financial Constraints on German Firms after the Crisis: Evidence from Threshold Panel Estimation

This article studies the existence and magnitude of financial investment constraints in Germany between 2006 and 2012 with a special emphasis on small and medium‐sized firms. The core contention is that the sensitivity of the investment rate to the cash flow rate is a function of a firm's financial position contributing to its access to external finance. The application of a nonlinear panel threshold model reveals that the marginal effect of the cash flow rate on the investment rate is almost twice as strong for ‘high debt’ firms compared to ‘low debt’ firms. This result holds for six out of seven balance sheet threshold variables. For a single specification, the results reveal a non‐monotonic relationship between the cash flow rate and investment rate. Firm size, however, does not explain differences in the cash‐flow‐investment nexus.     

Debt,lock-in assets and corporate restructuring

Why do some firms refuse to sell assets that are worth more to another firm? This paper shows that the presence of debt could cause an ex post overinvestment agency problem. In contrast to Myers' underinvestment problem, which is concerned with debt and growth assets, the model in this paper analyzes the role of debt and alternate users of assets in place. This type of agency problem is of interest because it is inherently related to the important recent corporate finance phenomenon of restructuring.     

公司声誉、财务信息与债务违约风险估计

假设公司资产信息是完全的,在财务信息完全和不完全两种情况下,本文把公司声誉水平作为一个影响因素,估计了公司债务违约概率,并着重分析了债务违约概率对声誉水平的敏感性。数值模拟分析的结论并不完全支持声誉水平与违约概率负相关、债务期限与违约概率正相关的常识。资产波动率、公司资产的瞬时漂移率分别与违约概率负相关、正相关。这些结论为把声誉纳入信用风险度量中提供了一个新的研究视角。     

基层财政亏损与负债矛盾突出的剖析

乡镇财政亏损负债矛盾日益突出，已经影响到乡镇政权的稳定，有必要分析亏损负债的深层原因，制定相应政策，使乡镇财政摆脱困境。     

金融深化下企业规模与债务融资关系研究

本文以我国各地区金融深化程度的差距为背景,通过2005年至2007年上市公司的数据研究了在金融深化的动态过程中企业规模与资本结构的关系。研究表明:金融深化下公司的债务融资的增减与公司规模有关。当公司总资产大于临界值时,金融深化给企业带来了更高比例的债务融资。当企业总资产小于临界值时,金融深化使企业的债务融资比例变小。在金融深化下,企业债务融资的增减速度快慢也受到企业规模的影响。当企业总资产大于上述临界值时,随着金融的发展,规模越大的企业其债务比例增长的速度越快。这个结论对理解和改善我国中小企业融资难的问题有一定的帮助。     

企业权益筹资风险评估研究

传统财务理论将企业筹资风险定义为“由于负债而给企业财务成果带来的不确定性”,认为筹资风险就是负债风险。这种理论导致企业管理者只重视负债筹资风险而忽视权益筹资风险。事实上,企业筹资风险既包括负债筹资风险,又包括权益筹资风险,同样会带来严重后果。为了加强权益筹资风险的管理,本文从权益筹资风险的特征、计量、风险预警控制区域等方面进行了探讨,试图建立企业权益筹资风险评价机制,从而弥补传统筹资风险理论的缺陷,为企业进行权益筹资风险的科学管理提供有效依据,使企业筹资风险管理更加科学化、规范化。     

股权与债券融资的偏好分析

资本环境影响着一国的经济发展,我国股票市场近两年的发展暴露了很多我们资本市场的问题,解决这样的问题不仅是监管层的问题,更重要的是企业以及制度本身的问题,本文通过对股权融资与债券融资的分析与比较,认为融资成本和制度因素导致了股权融资偏好的特点,要拓展更广阔的融资渠道,促进企业股权融资偏好向债券融资偏好的转变进而改变企业的治理结构,从技术上就是降低债券融资成本,从宏观上就是建立完善资本市场。     

Influential ownership and capital structure

This paper explores the relation between ownership structures and capital structures in Russia—an economy with a state‐run banking sector, weak corporate governance, and highly concentrated ownership. We find that firms with the state as controlling shareholder have significantly higher leverage than firms controlled by domestic private controlling shareholders other than oligarchs. Both firms controlled by the state or oligarchs finance their growth with more debt than other firms. Profitability is negatively related to leverage across all types of controlling owners, indicating a preference for internal funding over debt. The results indicate that firms with owners that have political influence or ties to large financial groups enjoy better access to debt. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

《企业会计准则—债务重组》修订前后的差异分析

2006年2月15日财政部颁布了新的会计准则体系,其准则中债务重组部分与2001年修订的存在较大差异,文章就其内容从债务重组的定义、债务重组的方式、债务重组的计量模式以及债务重组的会计处理等4个方面进行新旧债务重组的差异比较分析。     

负债代理成本影响因素实证分析——来自我国上市公司的证据

本文以我国上市公司面板数据及横截面数据为基础,运用线性回归分析对影响公司负债代理成本的因素进行了实证检验。结果发现,负债代理成本与债务期限结构、公司规模、财务灵活性及盈利能力的变化显著负相关;与公司未来成长性、资产期限、负债规模的变化显著正相关。     

Credit-rationing and entrepreneurial experience: Evidence from a resource deficit context

This study explores the following novel research question: Do attributes relating to the resources and signals of lead entrepreneurs, particularly prior business ownership experience quality signals, reduce the probability that entrepreneurs will be chronic credit-rationed entrepreneurs in a developing economy context with resource deficiencies? Guided by insights from signalling, resource-based view of the firm and human capital theory, profiles of credit-rationed entrepreneurs (i.e. debt finance obtained but below the amount requested) are highlighted. The length of the debt finance gap was considered with regard to temporary (over one year), major (over two years) and chronic (over three years) finance gaps. We find support for our hypotheses relating to entrepreneurs whose firms are more innovative being more likely to be chronically credit-rationed, whilst firms with partners, entrepreneurs with longer prior business ownership experience and habitual entrepreneurs are less likely to be credit-rationed. The interaction with serial or portfolio entrepreneur reduces the chronic credit-rationing problem faced by innovative firms. A case for developing linkages between inexperienced novice entrepreneurs and habitual entrepreneurs, particularly successful portfolio entrepreneurs, is made. Notably, we suggest that building upon the experienced entrepreneurs who do exist may be particularly beneficial in resource deficit contexts such as Ghana     

中国省级政府债务风险测度与分析

将财政收入分解为税收收入,土地出让收入以及其他收入。假设三类收入分别服从扩散过程,利用伊藤引理和投资组合理论,建立地方政府债务违约概率测算模型。省级政府债务违约风险的评价结果表明：税收收入和其他收入对地方政府债务违约风险的影响较大,“土地财政”的影响相对较小;偿还债务的期限越长,地方政府债务的违约风险越低;东、中、西部地区的省级地方政府债务的违约风险存在显著差别。西部地区省份的违约风险最高,东部发达地区的违约风险最低。发债试点的8个省市的违约风险普遍较低。四是如果偿还期限为5年,有29个省份的地方政府债务违约风险低于50%。     

Debt and Development

This paper examines incentive and valuation effects of debt financing on land investment. When land is debt financed, the landowner holds both a development option on the land and a default option on the debt. Because development typically devalues the default option, investment may be delayed past the point at which efficient investment would otherwise proceed. The incentive to underinvest is shown to be more pronounced as debt level increases, i.e., as the debt becomes riskier. This agency problem provides an explanation as to why land is generally difficult to debt finance and may also explain why debt levels are relatively low for “land-intensive” real estate firms. Novel comparative statics show that debt value may increase for a given increase in asset volatility as well as for a given increase in interest rate. Renegotiation and restrictive contract provisions are considered as mechanisms to promote efficient investment policy in the presence of debt financing.     

Eco‐innovation and firm growth in the circular economy: Evidence from European small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises

As the circular economy (CE) concept gains growing popularity among consumers and producers, small‐ and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs) increasingly look for ways to reorganize their offering and operations to integrate into the CE. This study examines the impact of (a) circular eco‐innovations and (b) external funding available for CE activities on the growth of European SMEs using a data set of 5,100 SMEs across 28 European countries in 2016. Findings reveal that a significant threshold investment (i.e., higher than 10% of revenues) into circular eco‐innovations is required for SMEs to benefit from investing into the CE. Moreover, the majority of circular eco‐innovations fail to boost the growth rates of SMEs, with the exception of investments into eco‐design innovations. Although traditional forms of debt and grant finance targeted to CE activities are found to have no or negative impact on the growth of SMEs, equity finance (i.e., angel and venture capital investments) contributes positively to their growth. The study offers insights into the lower levels of SME engagement in the CE as well as policy implications for improving engagement.     

STUDENT DEBT EFFECTS ON FINANCIAL WELL‐BEING: RESEARCH AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Reviewing the data regarding effects of student debt on students’ financial outcomes following college – whether successful graduation or premature exit – makes clear that there is a price to pay for having to borrow money to go to college. Indebted college graduates have lower net worth, less home equity, and compromised ability to accumulate assets, as compared to their peers with the same level of education but no student debt. They may also experience poorer educational outcomes, with independent effects on earning power and, then, later wealth accumulation. Especially given the relationship between initial household wealth and children's later educational outcomes, these findings about the post‐college financial outcomes of indebted students and graduates raise the specter of ongoing, sustained, and cross‐generational perpetuation of societal divides. In the United States, higher education is valued not just as a good in itself, but also as a means to the end of greater economic security and the primary lever for economic mobility. Evaluating student loans through this lens underscores the long‐term, volatile, and often hidden effects of student loan dependence and raises the stakes for consideration of alternative approaches to higher education finance.     

创业板上市公司负债融资与过度投资的相互关系

本文以中国创业板公司为研究对象,依据企业代理理论,采用联立方程组模型研究了创业板公司在非效率投资和风险特征背景下过度投资与负债融资之间的双向关系。实证结果表明,过度投资增加了企业的负债融资,而负债的增加又对企业过度投资起到了抑制作用。本文的研究为规范创业板企业投资行为,完善企业内部治理与外部债权人治理机制,优化企业融资结构等提供了理论依据。     

以国债为我国公开市场操作主要工具的实证分析

随着我国金融宏观调控从直接调控为主转向间接调控为主,公开市场操作越来越成为主要的间接调控手段。相比政策性金融债券和中央银行票据,国债因其所具有的优势决定了其更加适合作为我国公开市场操作的主要工具。本文通过中美国债比较,认为通过优化国债投资方向和国债期限结构等一系列政策手段,解决目前我国国债在发行规模、期限结构、投资者资产结构和市场结构方面存在的问题,可使得以国债作为主要工具更加具有可行性。