Time preference and two-country trade

We present a dynamic two-country model of international trade with endogenous time preference. We show that if the two countries have similar preferences, production technologies and labor endowments, there exists a unique and stable steady state such that both consumption and investment goods are produced in both countries. Unlike the case of constant time preferences, the steady state is independent of the initial international distribution of capital. We prove a dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin theorem such that the labor-abundant country exports the labor-intensive good.     

Factor Endowments and Production in European Regions

This paper analyses patterns of production across 14 industries in 45 regions from 7 European countries since 1975. We estimate an equation from neoclassical trade theory that relates an industry’s share of a region’s GDP to factor endowments, relative prices and technology. The strict version of the Heckscher–Ohlin model that assumes identical relative prices and technology is rejected against more general alternatives. However, factor endowments play a statistically significant and quantitatively important role in explaining production patterns. Factor endowments are more successful at explaining patterns of production in aggregate industries (Agriculture, Manufacturing and Services) than in disaggregated industries within manufacturing. JEL no. F11, F14, R13     

External debt,time preference,and nontraded goods in a two-sector dynamic model of consumption

A number of studies have indicated that one of the consequences of a development process is a rise in the consumers' subjective time preference rate (discount rate). This study first shows that many of the adverse economic observations in developing countries can emerge from a rise in the discount rate. It then demonstrates that the extent of such adverse effects is related to relative shares of the tradable and nontradable sectors in aggregate consumption. A result is that the aggregate dissaving generated by a rise in the discount rate is smaller when the economy's nontradable sector is relatively larger. The results add new dimensions to the allocation policies applied by international lending insitutions in developing economies.     

Policy Shocks and Macroeconomic Fluctuations in a Two‐country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model: Evidence from China*

In this paper, we construct a two‐country dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model to investigate the sources of business cycles in China and the contributions of policy shocks in economic fluctuations. The empirical results from Bayesian estimation show that, apart from the traditional supply and demand shocks, monetary and fiscal policy shocks also play important roles in determining China's economic fluctuations. In addition, we find significant feedback effects between monetary and fiscal policies in China, indicating that policy coordination is an important feature of China's monetary and fiscal policies. Overall, these results not only shed new light on the policy factors behind China's economic fluctuations, but also provide new evidence that is helpful for understanding the policy transmission mechanisms in China.     

时间偏好、跨期选择不一致及其神经基础

时间偏好是跨期选择行为研究中一个至关重要的依据,19世纪的经济学家们通过对它的定性分析形成了一套系统的古典时间偏好理论。直到1937年萨缪尔森提出指数贴现模型并成为新古典时间偏好理论的核心技术手段,新古典时间偏好理论得以成为跨期选择问题的主流分析框架。但因其高度理性的假定,指数贴现模型也一直饱受诟病和质疑,几乎每一个关键假设都有系统的实证结果与之相悖。20世纪80年代行为经济学的兴起,行为经济学家们肯定认知偏差的存在并引入了贴现率递减的双曲线贴现模型完成了对许多市场异象的解释,加之神经经济学和神经影像学的发展为时间偏好不一致提供了神经基础,时间偏好的研究迎来了新篇章。文章将对这些研究成果进行较为全面的回顾与评述,借以推动国内时间偏好理论研究的发展。     

Allocation of Time and Household-level Consumption Equivalent Welfare: A Case of South Korea

Using “2014 Time Usage and Quality of Life” of 17th KLIPS (Korean Labour and Income Panel Study), the first and most detailed time use survey of its kind in South Korea, we first document the patterns of time use in market work, nonmarket work (household work), child care, and a variety of definitions in leisure. We find that, while men work longer hours, men’s additional market work is well compensated by more leisure and less hours in nonmarket work and child care. We also find within-household unequal distribution of time use in nonmarket work, child care, and leisure in favour of men. Consistent with the cases of the US and other advanced economies, high-income earners tend to enjoy less hours of leisure while they spend more money on leisure activities. Secondly, we calculate the household-level consumption equivalent measure that considers consumption, leisure, life expectancy, and uncertainty. We find that taking into account non-separable preference over leisure and consumption and the quality of leisure is important and household-level welfare measures based solely on income or consumption are both incomplete and misleading.     

基于时间与作业成本的物流成本核算模型与方法

在物流作业成本法的基础上,加进了基于物流时间的物流成本核算方法,构建了物流成本核算的T-A模型。试图通过基于时间与作业相结合的物流成本核算模型与方法,对企业物流成本进行管理,以进一步挖掘物流隐性成本,为企业降低成本提高利润提供新的途径和思路。     

Real Exchange Rates and Fundamentals: Evidence from 15 OECD Countries

In an extended Balassa–Samuelson model, long-run real exchange rates are determined by relative productivity and terms of trade. We present evidence of systematic long-run relationships between these fundamental variables and real exchange rates in a data set covering 15 OECD countries from 1960 to 1996. High relative productivity is associated with real exchange rate appreciations in most cases. There is less support for the hypothesis that the terms of trade affect equilibrium real exchange rates.     

基于MR和TSA的成品油价格模型

通过对影响成品油价格的众多因素进行数据整理分析,首先建立了多元回归模型对其数据进行预测;然后建立了二次移动平均预测模型、三次指数平滑预测模型对其进行时间序列分析预测。综合三种方法对近15个时间片的油价预测值与统计值进行比较与误差分析,仿真结果表明,多元回归模型和时间序列分析的三次指数平滑预测达到了较好的效果。     

Analysis on CO2 Emissions Transferred from Developed Economies to China through Trade

Based on a global input–output model, this paper investigates the CO₂ emission transfer between China and developed economies through trade. The results show that approximately 15–23 percent of China's production‐based emissions during 1995–2009 were induced by the production of goods and services satisfying final demand in developed economies. Decomposition of emission transfers shows that trade of intermediate products played a significant role in emission transfer from developed economies to China. Most developed economies have consumption‐based emission responsibilities that are higher than their production‐based responsibilities, whereas China's consumption‐based responsibility is significantly lower than its production‐based responsibility. We argue that a fair and efficient carbon accounting approach should take CO emission transfers from developed economies to developing economies into consideration. It is important that China and its developed trade partners cooperate in reducing emission transfers.     

高铁网络、旅行时间与城市创新质量

基于2005-2017年的铁路列车时刻表数据,构建多时期DID模型评估了高铁开通对城市创新质量的影响.结果表明:高铁开通能够显著提升城市创新质量,且这种促进作用在创新主体、区域与行业等方面均具有一定异质性.使用城市间旅行时间数据构建高铁网络并进行进一步的机制检验发现,通过缩短旅行时间,高铁开通可提高城市在铁路网络中的地位与市场可达性,最终实现城市创新质量的提升.     

Evaluation of the Reverse Mortgage Option in Hong Kong

The reverse mortgage is a very useful financial product for senior citizens who own homes but do not have a cash income, while it is a high‐risk product from the lender's perspective. One of benefits of reverse mortgages is that the debt limit is restricted to the scope of the disposition price of the collateralized house, which is considered a put option to borrowers. The present study evaluates the option value of the reverse mortgage in Hong Kong through an empirical analysis using the Black–Scholes option‐pricing model. Moreover, the present study shows specific monetary values through option matching to the consumer situation, contributing to the increased understanding of reverse mortgages from the consumer's point of view.     

时间序列与BP神经网络在新疆GDP预测中的对比分析

根据新疆维吾尔自治区2009年统计年鉴中的数据,构建并选用合适的时间序列模型、BP神经网络模型,对2004年-2008年的新疆GDP进行预测,并用预测结果与实际值求得相对误差,然后将两种模型的误差进行比较。结果表明,BP模型应用于新疆GDP预测较时间序列预测有较高的预测精度和良好的泛化能力。     

公司治理、宏观经济环境与财务失败预警研究——离散时间风险模型的应用

已有的财务失败预警模型大多只考虑财务信息的作用,忽视了公司治理状况、宏观经济环境等非财务因素对财务失败的影响。本文综合利用财务信息、公司治理信息和宏观经济信息,采用生存分析中的离散时间风险模型构建我国上市公司的财务失败动态预警模型,并实证检验和比较离散时间风险模型与logistic模型、probit模型的预警能力。研究结果显示,公司治理信息和宏观经济信息对财务失败具有显著的预警作用,在模型中纳入这些非财务信息有助于提高模型的预测效果。研究结果也表明,离散时间风险模型的样本内判别能力和样本外预测能力都高于logistic模型和probit模型。     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.