Blowing it up and knocking it down: The local and city-wide effects of demolishing high concentration public housing on crime

This paper estimates the effect that the closure and demolition of roughly 20,000 units of geographically concentrated high-rise public housing had on crime in Chicago. We estimate local effects of closures on crime in the neighborhoods where high-rises stood and in proximate neighborhoods. We also estimate the impact that households displaced from high-rises had on crime in the neighborhoods to which they moved and neighborhoods close to those. Overall, reductions in violent crime in and near the areas where high-rises were demolished greatly outweighed increases in violent crime associated with the arrival of displaced residents in new neighborhoods.     

Foreclosure,vacancy and crime

This paper examines the impact of residential foreclosures and vacancies on violent and property crime. To overcome confounding factors, a difference-in-difference research design is applied to a unique data set containing geocoded foreclosure and crime data from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. Results indicate that while foreclosure alone has no effect on crime, violent crime rates increase by roughly 19% once the foreclosed home becomes vacant – an effect that increases with length of vacancy. We find weak evidence suggesting a potential vacancy effect for property crime that is much lower in magnitude.     

论网络犯罪及其防治对策

网络犯罪是现代社会的一种新型犯罪,它包括以网络为对象的犯罪和以网络为犯罪现场的犯罪。它具有技术含量高、危害程度重、涉及面广、隐蔽性强等特征。因此,打击该种犯罪,要完善法律法规,加强网络犯罪立法的国际协调与合作。     

中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度分析：基于产权的视角

研究目标：借鉴马克思及西方产权理论主要思想,研究揭示中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的制度选择及经验。研究方法：基于产权理论对经济事实进行逻辑推演,并采用1978~2012年中国农村统计数据进行检验。研究发现：中国农村特色扶贫开发道路主要体现在农村资源（土地和人力）的产权制度改革上,由此形成的资源产权激励效应和正向扩散效应,正是中国农村人口发生大规模减贫的最重要原因及主要经验,并构成了中国特色社会主义制度的一部分。研究创新：本文基于产权理论的研究为减贫提供一个新的微观制度视角解释。研究价值：总结提炼中国农村特色扶贫开发道路的一般性理论经验,对今后减贫事业推进具有借鉴意义。     

Household Surveys,Consumption, and the Measurement of Poverty

Household surveys are playing an increasingly important role in the measurement of poverty and well-being around the world. The Living Standards Measurement Study, which was begun in the World Bank under the guidance of Graham Pyatt in 1979, has played an important role in this movement. Its surveys are widely used within the Bank to measure consumption-based poverty, and survey data are now the exclusive basis for the global poverty counts. This paper discusses a number of unresolved issues in using consumption-based surveys for measuring well-being, including the choice of a money-metric versus welfare-ratio approach, the collection of suitable price information, the effects of measurement error on estimation, and methods for correcting per capita consumption for the demographic structure of the household.     

德国职业技术教育的特点及其发展趋势

德国发展职业技术教育对其社会经济发展起了积极促进作用。通过对德国职业技术教育发展状况、特点极其发展趋势的分析,学习与借鉴其成功经验,对于我国职业技术教育将提供有益启示。     

GQ模型测算中国农村贫困的缺陷

贫困问题在中国受到很大关注,准确测度贫困无疑非常重要。本文针对很多文献利用GQ模型拟合洛伦茨曲线,进而测算中国农村贫困的做法提出了质疑。本文结论为,当某些居民的纯收入为负数时,采用GQ模型拟合洛伦茨曲线是有偏的,以此计算的贫困指数与实际贫困存在系统性偏差。依据我国农村居民收入的分组数据,GQ模型测算的贫困发生率高估了实际数值,而贫困缺口指数和平方贫困缺口指数则被低估了。     

Marked point process hotspot maps for homicide and gun crime prediction in Chicago

Crime hotspot maps are a widely used and successful method of displaying spatial crime patterns and allocating police resources. However, hotspot maps are often created over a single timescale using only one crime type. In the case of short-term hotspot maps that utilize several weeks of crime data, risk estimates suffer from a high variance, especially for low frequency crimes such as homicide. Long-term hotspot maps that utilize several years of data fail to take into account near-repeat effects and emerging hotspot trends. In this paper we show how point process models of crime can be extended to include leading indicator crime types, while capturing both short-term and long-term patterns of risk, through a marked point process approach. Several years of data and many different crime types are systematically combined to yield accurate hotspot maps that can be used for the purpose of predictive policing of gun-related crime. We apply the methodology to a large, open source data set which has been made available to the general public online by the Chicago Police Department.     

收入差距、社会资本与居民贫困

研究目标：分析收入差距与社会资本及其交互作用对居民贫困的影响,并探讨两者的影响机制。研究方法：构建Logit等计量模型,并采用三阶段最小二乘法（3SLS）与工具变量法（IV Probit）进行稳健性检验。研究发现：在社区层面上,收入差距导致了教育与财政资源在区县间的配置不均等,阻碍了医疗保险制度的发展以及产业结构的提升,进而提高了居民的贫困发生率;在个体层面上,收入差距降低了居民对教育资源的可及性,恶化了居民的健康水平,从而导致居民进入贫困状态。社会资本能够降低居民发生贫困的概率,同时也能够缓解收入差距对居民贫困的不利影响;提升就业能力与收入水平、增加教育与医疗投资、改善社会经济地位、强化融资能力等是社会资本缓解贫困的主要渠道与机制。研究创新：采用具有代表性的中国家庭追踪调查数据,研究收入差距与社会资本对居民贫困的作用机制,指出社会资本是缓冲收入差距对居民贫困不利影响的重要保障。研究价值：为相关理论研究提供更多的经验证据和路径解释;在实践中,对减贫、防贫具有指导意义。     

Municipal corporatization in Germany and Italy

Abstract

During the last few years, the local government sector in European countries has undergone a number of important changes. Among the various reform initiatives has been the externalization of public services, such as corporatization, contracting-out, public–private partnerships and privatization. The key goal of this article is to describe and explain the evolution of local public services provision in the two selected countries, with a particular focus on ‘corporatization’. The article seeks to draw a picture of the actual municipal landscape with the administrative core and its various corporations. Furthermore, it will discuss the reasons for corporatization trends and their impact on the corporate governance structures of municipalities in Germany and Italy.     

Exploring the adjustment of American expatriate spouses in Germany

This paper re-conceptualizes the adjustment of expatriate spouses during overseas assignments and explores various factors influencing the level of spousal adjustment. It does so by using a combination of qualitative data, collected through interviews and group discussions with expatriate spouses, and quantitative data, gathered by means of a questionnaire survey of American expatriate spouses in Germany. The results support the existence of a hitherto neglected facet of spousal adjustment, designated 'role adjustment', and highlight some important antecedents of spousal adjustment. The implications of the results for research and the practice of international HRM are discussed.     

Modelling and predicting recorded property crime trends in England and Wales—a retrospective

In 1999 the Home Office published, for the first time ever, 3-year ahead projections of property crime in England and Wales. The projections covered the period 1999–2001 and indicated strong upward pressure after five full years of falling crime. This pressure was generated by three factors: the number of young men in the general population, the state of the economy and the fact that property crime appeared to be well below its underlying trend level. The projections received a mixed response, with some agreeing that crime was set to rise while questioning the scale of any increase, to others who doubted the value of this type of econometric modelling. In fact, property crime did increase in 1999, although not at the rate suggested by the models—and indeed levels of burglary continued to fall. This paper addresses some of the reasons for this disparity as well as considering various criticisms of the Home Office approach.     

Fear of crime and housing prices: Household reactions to sex offender registries

Megan's Law requires public dissemination of information from sex offender registries. Opponents to this controversial law have questioned whether households misinterpret or even use this information. One concern was that the information might simply induce a “fear of crime.” This study finds evidence for both use and misinterpretation of the publicly available information on sex offenders. Using a unique dataset that tracks sex offenders in Hillsborough County, Florida, the results indicate that after a sex offender moves into a neighborhood, nearby housing prices fall by 2.3% ($3500 on average). However, once a sex offender moves out of a neighborhood, housing prices appear to immediately rebound. Surprisingly, these price impacts do not appear to differ in areas near high risk offenders labeled as “predators.”     

Predicting the geo-temporal variations of crime and disorder

Traditional police boundaries—precincts, patrol districts, etc.—often fail to reflect the true distribution of criminal activity and thus do little to assist in the optimal allocation of police resources. This paper introduces methods for crime incident forecasting by focusing upon geographical areas of concern that transcend traditional policing boundaries. The computerised procedure utilises a geographical crime incidence-scanning algorithm to identify clusters with relatively high levels of crime (hot spots). These clusters provide sufficient data for training artificial neural networks (ANNs) capable of modelling trends within them. The approach to ANN specification and estimation is enhanced by application of a novel and noteworthy approach, the Gamma test (GT).     

德国铁路货物装载加固管理方式

介绍了德国特种货物运输现状;德国铁路特种货物运输的程序,以及装载加固方案的设计、审批与装载加固工作的具体实施等。     

中国家庭长期多维贫困状态转化及教育因素研究

研究目标：分析教育因素对长期多维贫困的影响。研究方法：结合Foster（2009）持续时间分析法和A-F双界线法构建了长期多维贫困指数,并选取混合效应回归模型、明瑟收入方程及其改进形式,重点分析家庭教育因素对长期多维贫困的影响。研究发现：教育已经成为长期多维贫困的主要贡献因素,其贡献度随着贫困持续时间的增加而增加。教育水平不同导致教育回报率差异进而影响贫困家庭贫困剥夺深度和贫困持续时间差异,并且高中及以上学历的教育回报率呈明显递增趋势。研究创新：将多维贫困在静态时点上的测度拓展到跨期的动态测度,并从微观家庭所在社区（村）拥有的教育资源和各级教育回报率差异等方面剖析了家庭陷入长期多维贫困的原因。研究价值：为构建长期多维贫困指数和促进“精准扶贫、精准脱贫”提供理论参考。     

Trade Liberalization and Poverty in Ecuador: A CGE Macro-Microsimulation Analysis

Cross-country analysis of the aggregate growth-poverty link is likely to miss important country-specific detail and possible offsetting forces in the underlying labour market adjustment process. This paper combines a CGE model analysis with a microsimulations approach to analyse the effects of trade liberalization on poverty and income distribution in Ecuador. The CGE model enables us to disentangle the general equilibrium effects of various trade policy scenarios on sector output, employment, factor incomes and household consumption. However, as is typical of CGE models, this analysis only provides distribution results for fairly aggregated groups of workers and a reduced number of representative households. The microsimulations approach adds the full distribution to the analysis and allows simulation of the effects of trade reform on the job status and remuneration of individual workers and thereby on household income distribution and poverty. The macro- microsimulation results indicate that the trade opening in Ecuador induced mild aggregate welfare gains, but rising income inequality due to rising wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers implies virtually no poverty-reducing effect from trade liberalization.     

德国私营铁路货物运输价格的制定

介绍了德国私营铁路货物运输价格的测算及其运输方式；指出运费测算的主要内容，并运用实例予以说明。     

从德国教授的聘任看我国教授晋升制度的改革

拥有大师级教授的大学才有条件培养出成批的大师级人才。我国的高等学校并不缺少教授,而是缺少具有世界知名度的大师级教授。这与我国教授的选拔晋升方法有关,该文所论及的德国教授的聘任模式将会给我国教授晋级制度的改革提供一些有益的借鉴。     

德国矿山安全健康管理与标准体系及其特征

概述了德国矿山安全健康管理体系,阐述了政府部门和矿业公会各自职责、相互关系及其监管特点;从标准层次和标准制定与管理两个方面,介绍了德国矿山安全健康标准体系,揭示了德国矿山安全健康标准体系的特征;为我国矿山安全健康管理与标准体系建设提供参考。