How federally insured reverse mortgages affect the credit outcomes of older adults

This study examines how the extraction of home equity through the federally insured Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) affects the credit outcomes of older adults. We use data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Equifax Consumer Credit Panel, supplemented with a unique credit panel data set of reverse mortgage borrowers. Using matched sample difference-in-differences with individual fixed effects, we estimate credit outcomes for older adults who borrowed through a HECM between 2008 and 2011, relative to older homeowners not borrowing from home equity. Our results indicate that the HECM is associated with a short-term reduction in revolving credit card debt, as well as a reduction in the probability of bankruptcy. We find some evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects, where older adults with higher levels of consumer debt prior to originating a HECM experience larger subsequent declines in debt, increases in credit score, and steeper reductions in bankruptcy rates.     

Objective measures as a predictor of late payments by high‐risk borrowers

Manufactured homes (also known outside the US as prefabricated homes) are a viable housing option for low‐income buyers, but traditional mortgages are not available for purchase of manufactured homes because of a perception of higher risk of default among purchasers of manufactured homes. Research suggests that creditscoring models which incorporate objective data such as income, debt‐to‐income ratio and credit history result in an accurate and objective predictive tool to estimate likelihood of late payments and default among traditional home buyers. This study showed that these same models can be applied similarly to purchasers of manufactured homes. A Tobit model was developed to evaluate which factors most accurately predict default and late payment behaviour among borrowers who purchased a manufactured home. The model showed that when decomposed into the probability of making a late payment and number of late payments, credit score and income are both significant predictors in both sets of borrowers of both the probability of making a late payment and the number of late payments. The higher the credit score, the less likely the borrower is to make a late payment.     

Home Equity Use and the Life Cycle Hypothesis

The life cycle hypothesis of consumption assumes the household to take a life-time perspective on all resources available for consumption, and to use the assets accumulated during the life-time to fund later consumption. Typically, households in the middle, high earning years, are able to save; younger and older households borrow or dissave. For many, a large share of accumulated household assets reside in home equity. This paper analyzes the propensity to use home equity to fund current consumption using a logit analysis of homeowners. The results support earlier criticism of the life cycle hypothesis in finding that older households do not rely on dissaving from assets. Older homeowners are less likely to use home equity to fund current consumption than others. Both sociodemographic determinants of life cycle changes as well as income variables are significant determinants of willingness to use home equity. Liquidity considerations appear to be less important.     

A Behavioral Life-Cycle Approach to Understanding the Wealth Effect

The somewhat surprising strength in consumer spending in recent years has focused renewed attention on the much-debated wealth effect, the notion that when individuals feel wealthier, they consume more. This study utilizes survey data to examine the wealth effect within the context of the behavioral life-cycle model of savings. The results indicate that the likelihood of households spending more when their assets increase in value decreases with the portion of assets held in home equity. This unexpected finding is due to homeowners responding to the perceived wealth gain from increased home values by cashing out their equity. The likelihood increases with the portion of assets held in stock outside of retirement accounts, but is not significantly related to the portion of assets held in stock overall. Moreover, households that have a full-time income earner, are homeowners, have more education, have a younger household head, or expect economic growth, are more likely to report a wealth effect. Households that utilize savings “rules of thumb” are less likely to report a wealth effect. These results can be used to improve the wealth effect specification in consumer demand models and assist firms to target consumer markets.     

International portfolios, capital accumulation and foreign assets dynamics

Despite the liberalization of capital flows among OECD countries, equity home bias remains sizable. We depart from the two familiar explanations of equity home bias: transaction costs that impede international diversification, and terms of trade responses to supply shocks that provide risk sharing, so that there is little incentive to hold diversified portfolios. We show that the interaction of the following ingredients generates a realistic equity home bias: capital accumulation and international trade in stocks and bonds. In our model, domestic stocks are used to hedge fluctuations in local wage income. Terms of trade risk is hedged using bonds denominated in local goods and in foreign goods. In contrast to related models, the low level of international diversification does not depend on strongly countercyclical terms of trade. The model also reproduces the cyclical dynamics of foreign asset positions and of international capital flows.     

Assessing credit quality from the equity market: can a structural approach forecast credit ratings?

We investigate the empirical performance of default probability prediction based on Merton's (1974) structural credit risk model. More specifically, we study if distance‐to‐default is a sufficient statistic for the equity market information concerning the credit quality of the debt‐issuing firm. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms the Merton (1974) model for both in‐sample fitting and out‐of‐sample predictability for credit ratings, and that both can be greatly improved by including the firm's equity value as an additional variable. Moreover, the empirical performance of this hybrid model is very similar to that of the simple reduced form model. As a result, we conclude that distant‐to‐default alone does not adequately capture the firm's credit quality information from the equity market. Copyright © 2007 ASAC. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Multinationals,Intra-Firm Trade and the Taxation of Foreign-Source Income

Most countries use the tax credit scheme instead of the tax deduction scheme to alleviate double taxation of foreign earnings. Under the tax deduction scheme, double taxation is alleviated by treating foreign taxes paid as business cost deductible against domestic income rather than allowing them to be credited against the taxes levied by the home country (as is the case under the tax credit system).This paper examines how the two tax systems affect trade between affiliates of a multinational firm.     

CREDIT SPREADS, OPTIMAL CAPITAL STRUCTURE, AND IMPLIED VOLATILITY WITH ENDOGENOUS DEFAULT AND JUMP RISK

We propose a two-sided jump model for credit risk by extending the Leland–Toft endogenous default model based on the geometric Brownian motion. The model shows that jump risk and endogenous default can have significant impacts on credit spreads, optimal capital structure, and implied volatility of equity options: (1) Jumps and endogenous default can produce a variety of non-zero credit spreads, including upward, humped, and downward shapes; interesting enough, the model can even produce, consistent with empirical findings, upward credit spreads for speculative grade bonds. (2) The jump risk leads to much lower optimal debt/equity ratio; in fact, with jump risk, highly risky firms tend to have very little debt. (3) The two-sided jumps lead to a variety of shapes for the implied volatility of equity options, even for long maturity options; although in general credit spreads and implied volatility tend to move in the same direction under exogenous default models, this may not be true in presence of endogenous default and jumps. Pricing formulae of credit default swaps and equity default swaps are also given. In terms of mathematical contribution, we give a proof of a version of the "smooth fitting" principle under the jump model, justifying a conjecture first suggested by Leland and Toft under the Brownian model.     

Venture capitalists at work: A diff-in-diff approach at late-stages of the screening process

In this paper we use a new methodology aimed at identifying only the venture capitalists (VC) treatment effect: we compare a representative sample of firms financed by private VC in the period 2004–2014 with a sample of firms rejected by VC at the very late-stages of the screening process. These firms narrowly lost the contest and are hence very similar, before VC financing, to the VC backed firms; self-selection is specifically taken into account. In line with previous results, Italian startups financed by VC reach a larger size and become more innovative than other startups. On the contrary, sales growth is similar and profitability is worse than firms in the control group. VC-backed companies experience larger rise in labor costs, while the commercialization of their innovative projects takes longer: this explains their worse profitability and the deterioration in their credit score. Both effects tend to disappear after four years from VC financing, when sales increase for VC-backed firms at the same pace as for the control group. Unlike other studies, no differences are detected for the survivorship rates of VC-backed firms in Italy. We also provide new evidence on the impact of VC on firms’ financial structures: VC-backed firms show a much larger increase in equity; this rise is however only half the increase in total assets that is hence not only explained by the injection of VC equity. Another result in this direction is that the effects on firms’ size and innovation hold when we restrict the control group to firms that also increase their equity from investors different from VC; this suggests that VC effects on size and innovation might also be linked to their managerial expertise and network connections. Finally, in line with previous evidence, the effects found in the paper are exclusively driven by independent VC investors compared with captive VC.     

关于劳动收入初次分配公平的几个问题

劳动收入初次分配是国民收入初次分配的基本组成部分。关于劳动收入初次分配的公平有许多问题需要探讨。劳动收入初次分配公平包括分配权利、分配机会、分配条件、分配规则、分配过程和分配结果公平等多方面的内容,其中分配规则、分配过程的公平特别重要。在劳动收入初次分配中必须将公平与效率置于同等重要的地位。分配是否公平虽然无法摆脱个人主观判断,但是可以通过各种客观的内在和外在尺度进行判断。分配公平应该是社会的基本价值诉求。要实现分配公平,既需要整个社会坚持公平的价值取向,集合各种促进劳动收入初次分配公平的因素和机制,也需要遏制各种导致劳动收入初次分配不公平的因素和机制。     

客户粘性的经济后果研究：基于供应商授信视角

供应商授信是企业融资的重要方式之一，本文以2013-2018年A股上市公司为研究样本，深入考察客户稳定性对企业供应商授信的影响及其作用机制，研究结果表明：(1)企业的客户稳定性越强，获得供应商授信的额度越多。该结论在采用工具变量法、倾向得分匹配法和替代变量等一系列稳健性检验之后依然成立。(2) 作用路径识别发现，企业经营业绩、信息环境和审计意见对客户稳定性与供应商授信的关系具有部分中介效应，其中企业经营业绩传递了约12%的客户-供应商的授信效应；信息环境传递了约5%的客户-供应商的授信效应；审计意见传递了约91%的客户-供应商的授信效应。(3)异质性检验发现，当企业所在地信任度较低、法制环境较差时，客户稳定性对企业供应商的授信额度影响更为明显。     

University revenues from technology transfer: Licensing fees vs. equity positions

This paper analyzes the financial return of universities' taking equity in their spin-off companies, and the prevailing attitudes toward taking equity. The reasons for taking equity include: the flexibility it gives licensing managers in structuring deals, the possibility that the university will still hold something of value if their technology is replaced, and, the reduced time required to generate revenue compared to a traditional license. A traditional license is preferred when the technology is not suitable for a spin-off company, or when the technology is one of the rare jackpot licenses that bring in millions of dollars every year.The financial reward of taking equity was determined by comparing the value of equity sold in public spin-off companies to the return on an average license. A traditional license consists of a license issue fee between $10,000 and $250,000 and an annual royalty on sales. In 1996 the average annual income from a traditional license was $63,832. The average value of equity sold in 16 university spin-off companies is $1,384,242. If one assumes that half the spin-offs fail before they go public, the average value of equity is $692,121. This is more than 10 times the average annual income from a traditional license, and is significantly higher than the amount usually received as a license issue fee.The high average value of equity depends on the presence of a few million-dollar equity sales. If those sales are excluded, the average value of equity is $139,722, which is within the range that can be received as a license issue fee. There is a high correlation between million-dollar equity sales and the amount of venture capital spending in the region. The million-dollar sales in this study all occurred in the top 11 states in the country in terms of venture capital spending in 1997.From a financial viewpoint it makes sense for licensing managers to take equity in their start-up companies. Our data show that even if none of the start-ups produces a million-dollar equity sale, the financial return of equity will be within the range normally received as a license issue fee. Taking equity leaves the door open for the occasional jackpot, which will bring in significantly more money than a standard license. When combined with a strong program of traditional licensing, taking equity in start-up companies maximizes the financial return that universities realize from their intellectual property.     

Growing firms and the credit constraint

Restricted access to finance (either debt or equity or both) is potentially a significant constraint on the growth of small businesses. Financing problems arise primarily as a consequence of information asymmetries; the adverse effects of these may in part be counteracted by the use of collateral as a signalling and bonding mechanism and/or by the development of a good working relationship between lender and borrower. If the form of information asymmetry differs for growth firms or if the effects of information asymmetries are less easily ameliorated then growing firms may be more adversely affected by credit constraints. If growth is contingent upon access to credit then the generalised implications for the economy may be significant and detrimental. Using evidence from a survery of over 6,000 firms conducted in 1992, this paper addresses the extent to which growth firms are adversely affected by a credit constraint; the results suggest that the credit constraint for growing firms per se is no greater but growth firms may still experience a credit constraint as a consequence of their relative youth. However, there is evidence to suggest that firms expecting to grow in the future do perceive a rather tighter credit constraint but this may be partly or wholly offset by a generally better relationship with their bank.     

Impact of Consumer Installment Debt on Food Expenditures

Trends in consumer installment credit over the period 1980 to 1989 are discussed; as well, a two-equation recursive model is developed to identify and assess the impact of installment credit on food expenditures. The first equation concerns factors affecting the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal disposable income, namely habit persistence, expected income, the prime interest rate, the unemployment rate, and the percentage of the population aged 25 to 44. The second equation focuses on factors affecting real per capita food expenditures, namely the real price of food, real per capita personal disposable income, seasonality, and a polynomial distributed lag of the measure of the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal disposable income from the first equation. The ratio of installment credit to personal disposable income has a positive effect on food expenditures; over the long run a one percent change in this ratio leads to a 0.15 percent change in real per capita food expenditures. On average, it takes just over six months for a change in this ratio to be transferred to food expenditures.     

Small business loan securitization and interstate risk sharing

Do credit risk transfers in general, and loan sales and securitizations in particular, by financial institutions enhance credit availability and financial stability? Or do they allow assets of poor credit quality to spread to unprotected investors, and thus create financial crises and destroy values? In this paper, we contribute to the continuing debate by examining the effect of small business loan securitizations on interstate personal income insurance. Using data of U.S. banks for the period 1995–2008, we find that small business loans securitizations contribute to the smoothening of state personal income volatility, and that this contribution is stronger in states where small businesses play a more important role in the local economy.     

农村信用社资本、资产结构状况:安徽案例研究

本文是对安徽省农村信用社进行的实地考察。通过对样本农村信用社一线资料的掌握和研究,以资本构成、股本金构成、内源性融资能力、资本充足率、贷款结构的相关指标为实证分析重点,本文总结了样本农村信用社资本结构、资产结构的现状,分析其在发展过程中所遇到的困难及其原因,并提出相关建议。     

The use of small instant loans among young adults – a gateway to a consumer insolvency?

The aim of this paper is to study 18‐ to 29‐year‐old Finnish consumers' use of instant small loans (i.e. SMS loan) and other consumer credit services that have increased notably in the past few years. We examine what kind of expenditures instant credit is used for and focus also on young consumers' financial situation and their perceptions of themselves as money handlers. The research method is quantitative, and data are derived from an open online survey (n = 1610). Our results reveal that consumer credit is used by young people in all income brackets and employment positions. However, there is a clear connection between certain life‐course stages (young, single parent), financial positions (low income), employment situations (marginal) and the propensity to take instant loans and consumer credit. The young people who take an instant loan once are likely to do it again. Typical purposes of use included buying alcohol, cigarettes and partying. For some consumers, the use of small loans is part of controlled and economical use of money. However, particularly in the low‐income brackets, it is also common to buy food and to repay credit or interest. Young people, who use instant loans recognize flaws in their money management and see themselves as ‘wasteful’ consumers more often than those who do not use instant loans. On the basis of this empirical study, it is unquestioned that young people's consumer education needs to be strengthened. In Finland, this need has already been recognized in both consumer policy and teacher education.     

美国财险公司投资示范法研究与借鉴

《保险公司投资示范法》NAIC在美国影响广泛,对财险公司的投资规范涉及基本原则、准备金投资的特殊要求、分散投资规则,以及对有评级信用工具、投资集合工具、股票、抵押贷款、房地产、用于出租的个人财产、融券、回购和逆回购、衍生工具及外国投资等具体投资品种的限制措施,行文严密、科学合理。根据我国的实际,可以借鉴以下几点:鼓励价值投资、根据信用等级等安全性指标区分比例限制、明确比例限制的计算基数、从4个角度加以综合限制、注意对不同种类资产比例限制的协调性以便为统一法规的形成奠定基础、有意识地探索对寿险和财险公司的差别化限制措施。     

Consumers’ Use of Credit Cards: Store Credit Card Usage as an Alternative Payment and Financing Medium

This paper investigates consumers’ use of store-issued credit cards with particular attention to their function as an alternative payment and financing medium. Using 1998 Survey of Consumer Finances data, the researchers found that credit availability through bankcards is negatively correlated with consumers’ use of store cards as a financing medium, suggesting the role of store cards as a supplementary credit line. A negative relationship is also found to exist between consumers’ bankcard usage and their use of store cards for a transaction purpose, indicating that store cards function as a substitute payment medium. Consumers’ usage of store cards varies according to function and is related to a number of variables, including the use of bank cards, credit history, attitude toward credit, income, education, and ethnicity.     

Vulnerable options,risky corporate bond,and credit spread

In the current literature, the focus of credit‐risk analysis has been either on the valuation of risky corporate bond and credit spread or on the valuation of vulnerable options, but never both in the same context. There are two main concerns with existing studies. First, corporate bonds and credit spreads are generally analyzed in a context where corporate debt is the only liability of the firm and a firm’s value follows a continuous stochastic process. This setup implies a zero short‐term spread, which is strongly rejected by empirical observations. The failure of generating non‐zero short‐term credit spreads may be attributed to the simplified assumption on corporate liabilities. Because a corporation generally has more than one type of liability, modeling multiple liabilities may help to incorporate discontinuity in a firm’s value and thereby lead to realistic credit term structures. Second, vulnerable options are generally valued under the assumption that a firm can fully pay off the option if the firm’s value is above the default barrier at the option’s maturity. Such an assumption is not realistic because a corporation can find itself in a solvent position at option’s maturity but with assets insufficient to pay off the option. The main contribution of this study is to address these concerns. The proposed framework extends the existing equity‐bond capital structure to an equity‐bond‐derivative setting and encompasses many existing models as special cases. The firm under study has two types of liabilities: a corporate bond and a short position in a call option. The risky corporate bond, credit spreads, and vulnerable options are analyzed and compared with their counterparts from previous models. Numerical results show that adding a derivative type of liability can lead to positive short‐term credit spreads and various shapes of credit‐spread term structures that were not possible in previous models. In addition, we found that vulnerable options need not always be worth less than their default‐free counterparts. © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 21:301–327, 2001