FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT,ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY,AND PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH: EVIDENCE FROM CHINA

Financial development might lead to productivity improvement in developing countries. In the present study, based on the Data Envelopment Analysis approach, we use the Malmquist index to measure China's total factor productivity change and its two components (i.e., efficiency change and technical progress). We find that China has recorded an increase in total factor productivity from 1993 to 2001, and that productivity growth was mostly attributed to technical progress, rather than to improvement in efficiency. Moreover, using panel dataset covering 29 Chinese provinces over the period from 1993 to 2001 and applying the Generalized Method of Moment system estimation, we investigate the impact of financial development on productivity growth in China. Empirical results show that, during this period, financial development has significantly contributed to China's productivity growth, mainly through its favorable effect on efficiency.     

EMPLOYMENT,CAPITAL, AND PRODUCTIVITY DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM THE MANUFACTURING SECTOR IN URUGUAY

Using a sample of Uruguayan manufacturing establishments we analyze employment, capital, and productivity dynamics over a period of currency appreciation; changes in trade policy; and changes in the institutional setting of wage negotiations. As the relative capital–labor price ratio fell, capital intensity increased. At the same time, there was an increase in labor and total factor productivity. Creation and destruction rates were relatively high and pervasive over time, sectors, establishment size, and establishment age, with exits explaining a sizeable part of destruction rates. Most of the excess reallocation was due to movements “within” rather than “between” sectors. Thus, high reallocation rates were linked to establishment‐level heterogeneity rather than aggregate shocks.     

TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY IN PRODUCTION IN A DEVELOPING COUNTRY: AN EMPIRICAL EXAMINATION OF THE BRAZILIAN PLASTICS AND STEEL INDUSTRIES

This paper estimates firm specific indexes of technical efficiencyfor the Brazilian plastics and steel industries. Two differentindexes are employed for the empirical estimates—the Farrellindex and an index developed from a linear programming approximationof a nonstochastic frontier production function specified inthe Cobb-Douglas functional form. Evidence of substantial relativetechnical inefficiency is revealed. In both industries onlya very small proportion of all the observed firms were producingamounts of output greater than 80 percent of that technicallypossible on the estimated frontier. Relative efficiency of thefirms in the two industries was not seen to be significantlyrelated to ownership (foreign or government), but tests didsuggest a tendency for larger firms, possessing larger marketshares, to be closer to the frontier than smaller firms.     

INTRAINDUSTRY SPECIALIZATION AND THE UNITED STATES–CENTRAL AMERICA–DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

This paper examines changes in intraindustry specialization indicators over the 1992–2004 period to assess the potential for structural adjustment problems that may arise in the United States with growth in trade resulting from the United States–Central America–Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement (CAFTA‐DR) between the United States and six Central American countries—Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the Dominican Republic. CAFTA‐DR will expand market access for US exporters. Few US industries are likely to encounter structural adjustment problems. Given the relatively large size of the US economy, and the small number of industries that face potential adjustment pressures, the United States should have liberalized all trade immediately. When potential adjustment pressures are indicated, long tariff phaseouts, complex rules of origin, and import safeguards are used to delay factor adjustments in import‐sensitive industries.     

TECHNICAL EFFICIENCY AND PRODUCTIVITY POTENTIAL OF COCOA FARMERS IN WEST AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This paper uses survey data to examine the technical efficiency and productivity potential of cocoa farmers in West and Central Africa. Separate stochastic frontier models are estimated for farmers in Cameroon, Ghana, Nigeria, and Côte d’Ivoire, along with a stochastic metaproduction frontier to obtain alternative estimates for the technical efficiencies of farmers in the different countries. The mean productivity potential of cocoa farmers is also estimated, by using a decomposition result applied to both the national and the metaproduction frontiers. The determinants of technical efficiency are assessed to identify the reasons for differences across countries.     

BORDER BARRIERS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE IMPACT OF THEIR ELIMINATION: EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA

We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.     

THE EQUITY PREMIUM AND RISK-FREE RATE PUZZLES IN A TURBULENT ECONOMY: EVIDENCE FROM 105 YEARS OF DATA FROM SOUTH AFRICA

This paper presents a detailed empirical examination of the South African equity premium, and a quantitative theoretic exercise to test the canonical inter-temporal consumption-based asset-pricing model under power utility. Over the long run, the South African stock market produced average returns six to eight percentage points above bonds and cash, and at the 20-year horizon, an investor would not have experienced a single negative realised equity premium over the entire 105-year period we examine. Yet the maximum equity premium rationalised by the consumption-based model is 0.4%. The canonical macro-financial model closely matches the average risk-free rate, using realistic parameters for the coefficient of risk aversion and a positive rate of time preference.     

MIGRATION,SOCIAL NETWORKS,AND CREDIT: EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE FROM PERU

We seek evidence of the causal relationship between migration, social networks, and the probability of receiving credit in a developing country where credit markets are weak and internal migration is common. Migrants may face binding asymmetric information constraints as they often lack collateral. Social networks can help mitigate these constraints. Conversely, migrants might face higher liquidity constraints and might, therefore, demand more credit than nonmigrants. The effect of migration on participation in the credit market is thus ambiguous. Compounding this, migration and credit may be jointly determined. We utilize rich data from Peru to establish the net effect of migration on credit and the role that social networks play in this relationship.