负债融资、经济政策不确定性与企业成本粘性

文章利用2009—2020年中国A股上市公司的数据,实证检验了负债融资对企业成本粘性的影响。研究发现,负债融资可以降低企业的成本粘性,并且在经济政策不确定性高的情况下这种抑制作用更显著。通过进一步分组回归,发现负债融资对企业成本粘性的降低在非国有企业、市场竞争程度高的企业中更显著。文章的研究结论对于减弱企业成本粘性提供了一个潜在因素,为优化企业成本管理、提升企业产能利用率提供了理论依据。     

资本价值与宏观投资率：应用包含调整成本的拉姆齐模型的研究

学术界对中国宏观投资率是否过高存在争议。应用包含调整成本的拉姆齐模型,从理论上分析资本价值影响宏观投资率的机制：中低收入经济体人均资本存量相对较低,资本边际产出较高,由此推断资本边际价值较高,从而推高了宏观投资率;随着该经济体人均资本存量的提高,其资本边际价值会逐渐降低至发达经济体水平,在此收敛过程中宏观投资率也会逐渐下降。在企业价值最大化时,资本边际价值等于购买价格与边际调整成本之和,其中边际调整成本是资本边际价值的关键组成部分。逆向积分数值模拟测算结果表明,2000—2019年,中国考虑调整成本的福利最大化宏观投资率比忽略调整成本时平均高8.78个百分点,两者在统计上存在显著性差异,说明调整成本对宏观投资率具有显著影响,即高资本边际价值引致高宏观投资率。进一步分析发现,在考虑调整成本的情况下,中国福利最大化宏观投资率高于实际的宏观投资率,说明中国宏观投资率未必过高。     

人口结构变化与中国贸易顺差:理论与实证研究

文章首先通过构建一个开放经济三期世代交替模型讨论了人口结构变化对中国经常账户余额的影响。理论研究发现,少儿抚养系数的下降会引起储蓄率相对于投资率上升从而形成经常账户盈余,人口老龄化会降低储蓄率从而对经常账户余额产生负向影响。文章然后运用中国1993-2009年省级面板数据进行了实证分析,经验结论与理论模型预测一致,人口结构变化能够解释中国经常账户余额变化的近45%。在控制了其他解释变量后,人口年龄结构变量对经常账户的影响依然显著。文章的估计结果对替代性的经常账户余额指标、人口年龄结构变量的选取以及模型的动态设定也非常稳健。     

经济分权模式下地方政府赶超与劳动收入占比——基于中国省级面板数据的实证分析

文章首先分析了地方政府由竞争而采取的赶超行为对劳动收入占比的影响。在中国特殊的经济分权模式下,这种赶超行为一方面加深了产品市场和要素市场的不完全竞争程度;另一方面由于地方政府没有充分利用资源禀赋的比较优势,而是优先发展重化工等资本密集型产业,从而导致了过快的资本深化。文章然后提出了理论假说,最后运用省际面板数据实证分析了地方政府赶超行为对劳动收入占比的影响。结果表明,地方政府的赶超行为显著降低了劳动报酬份额;另外,文章还发现人力资本存量也与劳动收入占比显著负相关。     

中国是否存在过度投资?——基于1995-2014年投资效益的测算

本文旨在从投资效益的角度研究中国持续高投资率是否合理以及投资是否过度问题.通过应用AMSZ准则检验中国近二十年来资本积累状况,发现自2003年以来中国整体经济呈现资本总收益小于总投资的资本过度积累状态;进一步测算同期经济的资本回报率,发现2008年后实施经济刺激政策以来,中国整体资本回报率大幅下降;通过对投资率与资本回报率进行拟合,发现投资率对资本回报率具有负向影响.由此得出中国存在较为严重的过度投资的结论,并就过度投资的危害及其防范提出相关政策建议.     

最低工资标准如何影响企业产能过剩

利用我国25个城市最低工资标准数据匹配到世界银行关于中国制造业企业调查数据,从实证角度探究了最低工资标准对企业产能利用率的影响及作用机制.结果表明,最低工资标准上浮会显著降低企业的产能利用率.同时,本文还揭示了最低工资标准影响企业产能利用率的调节机制和渠道机制.进一步研究发现,对不同规模和类型企业而言,最低工资标准上浮对企业产能利用率的影响存在异质性.研究结论为深层次理解经济转型时期,中国制造业企业产能过剩的原因提供了新的线索.     

地方政府隐性债务与企业研发——自中国非金融上市公司的证据

地方隐性债务的无序扩张会削弱中国经济的长期发展动能.面对隐性债务规模的不断膨胀和企业研发活动增速的下降,很多经济观察者产生了这样的疑问,过高的地方债务水平是否会抑制微观企业的创新?这一影响的潜在作用机制是什么?文章基于2008年至2017年非金融业上市公司数据和手工搜集的地方政府隐性债务数据,考察地方政府隐性债务水平对微观企业研发活动的影响.实证结果显示,较高的城市隐性债务水平抑制了当地企业的专利申请数量,但对研发投入的影响不确定,这表明隐性债务水平降低了企业的创新效率.机制分析显示,政府(研发)补贴和长期外部信贷的减少是"抑制作用"产生的潜在机制.最后,文章还对实证结果进行了异质性分析和稳健性检验.文章的研究对深入理解地方政府隐性债务对实体经济的影响具有一定现实意义.     

中国经济国民投资率的福利经济学分析

本文首次系统地从福利经济学角度出发,运用前沿计算方法,试图回答中国投资率是否过高这一重要问题。本文首先计算了两个投资率:一是境内投资率;二是国民投资率,即(境内投资+对外投资)/GDP。通过横向的对比,发现无论是境内投资率还是国民投资率,即便考虑高经济增长率,中国经济都远高于世界各国。其次,采用经济增长理论的基准模型,利用中国的参数进行校准,并且进行稳健性检验,运用逆向积分法模拟中国经济福利最大化的投资路径。结果表明,中国经济上世纪90年代平均境内投资率低于福利最大化的投资率6%,国民投资率4%;2002年后,平均境内投资高于福利最大化的投资率5%,国民投资率12%;1990—2008年实际投资相对福利最大化的投资路径总福利损失约为5.9%,相当于每期损失约3.8%的GDP。最后,本文进一步分析,如果适当地降低国民投资率,同时改善投资效率,中国经济的GDP增长率并不会大幅下降。     

政府干预、终极控制权与企业雇佣行为——基于中国民营上市公司的研究

文章基于中国民营企业控制权结构下的地方政府干预动机,利用中国民营上市公司的经验数据,从理论和实证两个层面系统研究了政府干预对民营上市公司雇佣行为的影响和控股股东控制权对政府这种干预行为的影响及其经济后果.结果发现:(1)控股股东的控制权会调节政府干预与民营企业雇员规模之间的关系,在控股股东控制权较大的民营企业中,交易成本或谈判成本更低,政府干预能够显著提高企业的雇员规模.(2)这种干预行为降低了民营企业雇员的配置效率,导致了企业劳动力成本的上升,也提高了雇员冗余的程度.文章研究在一定程度上为进一步了解地方政府对企业的干预机制提供了理论依据和决策参考.     

地方产业政策与行业创新发展-来自新能源汽车产业政策文本的经验证据

新能源汽车是地方政府实现绿色转型的重要抓手,文章基于我国产业政策存在"中央产业政策-地方产业政策"的现实,着重考察了地方不同类别产业政策对行业创新的作用.文章手工收集整理了中国省级层面新能源汽车产业政策文本数据,利用政策用词识别、量化政策类型和政策效力,实证考察了地方产业政策对新能源汽车行业创新发展的影响.特别地,文章检验了供给型、需求型和环境型产业政策的差异影响,并对会加强或削弱地方产业政策效果的因素进行了深入分析.研究发现,就全国整体而言,地方产业政策能够有效激励新能源汽车行业创新发展.与供给型、需求型政策相比,以目标规划、金融支持、法规规范和产权保护等为代表的环境型政策更为有效.考虑变量衡量误差和内生性等问题后,研究结论依然成立.此外,文章还发现中央和地方官员更替对产业政策效果并无显著影响.与政府补贴、税收优惠相比,地方产业政策主要通过强化市场竞争和降低企业融资约束而达成促进行业创新的目的.文章的研究在丰富了产业政策研究文献的同时,也为中国制定和实施产业政策提供了新的思路.     

Equipment and non-equipment private investment: a generalized Solow model

The study is an empirical attempt to shed light on which categories of private fixed investment could be relied on to provide the greatest stimulus to economic growth. Panel data, comprising 5-year periodic data over the period 1965–90 pooled across 55 countries, are employed in estimating the model through the fixed-effect technique. In addition to human capital investment ratio, five categories of private fixed investment ratios are tested for. Findings suggest that not all types of investments are conducive to growth.     

Optimal annexation

Previous empirical studies of the effects of annexation on municipal expenditures and municipal efficiency have yielded mixed results. Here it is argued that as municipalities grow through annexation, there may be administrative and service delivery efficiencies that, at least for a time, more than offset the inefficiencies of a heightened degree of monopoly power in the provision of infrastructure and services. If this is the case, then the rates of growth of both per capita taxes and per capita spending will decrease with annexation. Eventually, though, administrative and service inefficiencies are likely to develop as the city's geographic area and population base increase, and monopoly inefficiencies are likely to worsen. If this is the case, then the rates of growth of both per capita taxes and per capita spending will increase with annexation. Thus, there may be some level of annexation activity at which the growth of per capita taxes and the growth of per capita spending will be minimized. Municipal annexation, taxation, and expenditure outcomes from the 1970s are analysed in an empirical framework that reflects the interactions among these variables in dynamic municipal settings. The results are consistent with the existence of an optimal level of annexation.     

Why are Latin America's savings rates so low? An international comparative analysis

This paper presents a theoretical and empirical assessment of the determinants of savings rates, with special emphasis on Latin American savings rates. The study is based on international comparisons, using data from 36 countries for 1970–1992. A distinction is made between private and public savings. The later are endogenously determined by economic and political variables. Per capita income growth is the most important determinant of private and public savings; public savings are lower in countries with higher political instability; public savings crowd out private savings, but less than proportionately. Low Latin American savings are due to the magnitudes of their determinants, rather than structural differences.     

Empirical studies on the relationship between public and private investment and GDP growth

This study performs empirical studies on the interaction between public and private investment and GDP growth for Japan and the USA. Since the data for each country used show features that are quite different from each other, empirical methods of GMM (Generalized Method of Moments) and OLS (Ordinary Least squares) are accordingly applied to Japan and the USA, respectively. The empirical results suggest that both public and private investment make great contributions to Japanese economic growth, while the US private investment seems to play a much more significant role than public investment.     

Public Capital Formation and Regional Development in Spain

This paper uses a vector autoregression (VAR) approach to evaluate the effects of public investment on private sector performance in Spain. Empirical results suggest that public investment positively affected private investment, employment, and output at both aggregate and regional levels. The regions that benefited the most from public investment in the last two decades were Cataluña, Madrid, and Pais Vasco. These regions are among the largest economic areas in the country and among the ones with the highest GDP per capita. Accordingly, public investment, while an important factor for aggregate economic growth, has also been a source of increasing regional asymmetries.     

我国政府支出和公共投资对私人投资的效应分析

首先采用Diamond模型对公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资影响进行理论分析;然后利用1980~2005年间的数据,运用协整检验、单方程误差修正模型分析了我国政府支出和公共投资及各项政府支出对私人投资的长短期效应;经验结果表明无论从长期还是短期看政府支出挤出了私人投资而公共投资则挤入了私人投资,国防支出和行政管理支出在长期和短期都挤出了私人投资,社会文教支出长期挤入了私人投资,短期挤出了私人投资。     

Public Investment and Economic Growth in Latin America: an Empirical Test

The paper analyzes the impact on economic growth of public investment spending and other relevant variables (such as human capital) for nine major Latin American nations over the 1983–93 period. The results suggest that both public and private investment spending contribute to economic growth. Overall central government consumption expenditures, on the other hand, are found to have a negative effect on private investment and growth. Finally, public expenditures on education and healthcare are found to have a positive and statistically significant effect on private capital formation and long–term economic growth. From a policy standpoint, the results suggest that indiscriminate cuts in public and private investment spending are likely to be counterproductive in the long run, and more importantly, scarce public expenditures should be channeled to the promotion of new human capital (via primary and secondary education) and the maintenance of existing human capital (through healthcare expenditures).     

You are suffocating me: Firm-level analysis of state-owned enterprises and private investment

Literature on whether government spending crowds out or crowds in the private sector is large, but still without an unambiguous conclusion. Using firm-level data from Ukraine, this paper provides a granular empirical investigation to disentangle the impact of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) on private firm investment in Ukraine—a large transition economy. Controlling for firm characteristics and systematic differences across sectors, the results indicate that the SOE concentration in a given sector has a statistically significant negative effect on private fixed capital formation, and that the impact of SOEs is stronger in those industries in which SOEs have a more dominant presence. These findings imply that private firms operating in sectors with a high level of SOE concentration invest systematically less than businesses that are not competing directly with SOEs.     

Powering economic growth and development in Africa: telecommunication operations

This study investigates the effect of telecommunication operations on economic growth and development in selected African countries. The analysis considers a panel of 46 African countries from 2000 to 2015. To measure economic growth, real gross domestic product serves as the proxy, while economic development is measured by the Human Development Index, and telecommunication operations by a composite index of telecommunication computed from mobile line, fixed/CDM line and Internet access penetration via principal component analysis. The physical capital stock is measured by gross fixed capital formation, level of employment by the employment to population ratio, human capital development by enrolment in secondary education for both sexes and technology transfer by net inflows of foreign direct investment in Africa. The empirical results suggest that telecommunication operations promote economic growth and development in Africa. These results imply that for every positive expansion in telecommunication operations and physical capital stock, aggregate output and standard of living will adjust positively in Africa. Thus, an appropriate policy to improve overall investment in Africa and most especially in the telecommunication sector since the spillover effect cut across other sectors and the general economic performance.     

Export expansion and economic growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces

This paper examines the effect of exports on economic growth based on the data of 30 Chinese provinces from 1978 to 1995. A theoretical model is based on the neoclassical production function, in which exports can affect output growth. It was found that the growth rate of exports and the growth rate of per capita output are positively related; i.e. provinces with faster growth of exports grew faster than the provinces with slower export growth. It was also found that investment in state enterprises was insignificantly related to output growth, while investment in private enterprises was positively related to growth.