Effacing the political future : A response to

Political change within industrial countries will accompany the restructuring of economies and international relations in the 1980s. The most detailed study of alternative scenarios involving the latter issues—the report—treats domestic politics in terms of notions of value change. This article criticises these widespread ideas. Futures studies need to take political trends seriously, including those towards corporatism and the strong state. In this light the development of the informal sector can be no panacea for problems of political and economic power.     

A kingdom inside: the future of Hawaiian political identity

“A Kingdom Inside” is a critical look at some of the contemporary political events unfolding in Hawaii at the end of 2002. It takes a look at Hawaiian representation in the media, politics and in history, and it reveals the political and legal reality of the ongoing US military occupation of Hawai’i. By calling into question the legitimacy of Hawai’i as the 50th state, this essay unravels some of the confusing issues around Hawaiian political identity and considers potential economic consequences to the United States that could lead to a negotiated withdrawal from Hawai’i.     

Delphi,political philosophy and the future

Based on the Delphi technique, the project described in this article seeks to integrate the teaching of classical political science with the analysis of problems facing contemporary and future society. Experts on particular political philosophers of the past were asked to imagine how those men would have viewed and solved present political problems, and thus to use their knowledge to develop a new approach to policy analysis.     

The future of political systems : What young people think

The relationship between political structure and political attitudes is examined by testing the hypothesis that pre-adults will display more pessimistic attitudes towards the future of a political system characterised by the lack of a centralised government (the international system) than towards the future of a political system characterised by the presence of such a government (their own national political system). Data obtained from a national sample of high school seniors in the USA support the hypothesis. The article illustrates how data from a single sample may be used to investigate political structure as an independent variable.     

The social audit: A political view

The experiences of Social Audit are reviewed and appraised. On this basis some key problems of social auditing are discussed and possibilities for the future outlined.     

A vision for communities in the 21st century: back to the future

Globalization, in its capitalistic and popular cultural form, is impacting communities around the world. This paper uses two models to show how globalization actually arose several millennia ago and how the process has greatly accelerated in recent times. One model describes the ‘information technology system’ and the second is James Miller’s living systems model. Using these models as a foundation, this paper argues that globalization can severely weaken communities and is antithetical to future-oriented perspectives. If current globalization trends continue unabated, globalization may result in a future world characterized by satiated consumers whose every desire is met by a totally efficient but completely impersonal economic system. In this world, people do not depend directly upon face-to-face interaction for their economic well being. Because of this, community and even culture collapses. Contrasted to this soulless world, it is argued that a new future could evolve where concern about the future replaces individualistic and market-oriented concerns as the prime motivator of public policy. This future has a good probability of occurring since current populations are being socialized to understand the broad concept of globalization. Additionally, new technologies will allow the development of small, mostly self-sufficient communities which will facilitate the re-emergence of community life and obligations.     

French planning in the 1980s : A political agenda

Planners and policy makers can no longer rely on the assumptions that have stood them in good stead for the past two decades. The decline in birth rates, the growth of structural unemployment, the middle-class revolt against further taxation, and the emergence of quality of life issues will force a reappraisal of these assumptions. New methods will be needed to cope with the wider boundaries of social planning.     

Macroprudential policy in the EU: A political economy perspective

In response to the lessons of the global financial crisis, macroprudential policy is now firmly established as a financial policy area to prevent excessive risk taking in the financial sector and mitigate its effects on the real economy. However, macroprudential policy is facing several challenges relating to its political sensitivity and institutional context. These include political and interest group resistance, weaknesses in the governance framework, and limited institutional memory among policy makers. This article seeks to contribute to the contextual understanding of macroprudential policy by exploring how factors relating to these challenges influence policy in the EU. More specifically, it develops and empirically tests a number of hypotheses on how wider institutional and structural factors influence the actual use of macroprudential measures across Europe. The findings yield considerable support for theoretical predictions that institutions and contexts matter - Political pressure and interest group resistance tend to influence the intensity of macroprudential policy stances. Weaker policy stances characterise countries where banking systems depend on domestic banks, whereas the opposite holds for financial systems with significant market shares of other financial intermediaries. Results on institutional arrangements show that governance arrangements on relating to transparency influence policy stances. The results also indicate that policy makers' inertia is best counteracted by appointing a single macroprudential authority. The results differ somewhat depending on whether countries are based in the Euro zone or not. This suggests that policy frameworks that are multi-layered and complex pose tricky conundrums on how to ensure sufficient institutional autonomy, policy capacity and discretion among macroprudential authorities. This also has implications on other policy areas macroprudential policy, such as microprudential policy, crisis management and fiscal policy.     

Anti-bribery disclosures: A response to networked governance

This study examined the posited link between networked governance (the activities of NGOs and the media) and the anti-bribery disclosures of two global telecommunication companies. Based on a joint consideration of legitimacy theory, media agenda setting theory and responsive regulation, the findings show that anti-bribery disclosures are positively associated with the activities of the media and NGO initiatives. The findings also show that companies make anti-bribery disclosures to maintain symbolic legitimacy but are less prominent in effecting a substantive change in their accountability practices.     

The future according to Jesus: A Galilean model of foresight

Should futures studies situate the historical Jesus within the pre-history of their discipline? This paper proposes a first-century Galilean model, which argues that Jesus envisioned a middle-range future as a dynamic interaction of conventional, counter, and creative paths. This historical model then is compared and contrasted with 20th century frameworks of the kingdom of God, ranging from imminent, existential, inaugurated, and contextual. Suggestions are offered on how futurists might use this model to enhance their understanding of social and strategic foresight.     

预见未来

让我们来看看,预测分析学如何帮助企业驱动组织的未来。卡特彼勒(Caterpillar),全球著名的工程机械公司,在许多方面看起来是一个传统的公司。但是,它在预测分析学上的应用实践,显示出这套工具在不稳定的经济环境中运用得十分有效。国际会计联合会(IFAC)最近发布的一个报告中着重谈到,卡特彼勒的预测分析项目展示了管理会计如何通过运用预测分析来提供预见性的信息,从而为公司创造价值并实现差异化。     

A post-carbon aviation future: Airports and the transition to a cleaner aviation sector

There is an increasing global interest in sustainable aviation technologies as a result of concerns associated with the carbon-intensive nature of the industry and the imminence of reaching peak oil. Available options such as biofuels, liquid hydrogen and electric propulsion will not only impact on the design and functionality of commercial airplanes, but also will affect the entire industry from supply through to operation and maintenance. However, on account of the global spread and international nature of aviation, in addition to the lock-in effect associated with existing fossil-fuel driven technology, the present aviation paradigm is not well equipped for a massive or rapid technological transition. This paper first provides an overview of selected available propulsion options, as well as their possible impact on the aviation infrastructure. It then sets out to identify the existing regime players in the aviation transition arena as a means to provide an overview of potential path trajectories, with a view to assessing how airport owners and other salient regime players can either facilitate or hinder the transition to alternative and less carbon-intensive technologies.     

Tantra as episteme: A pedagogy of the future

In the face of the contemporary university's failure to escape from economic rationality and therefore create environments conducive to positive futures an alternative model of university is proposed. This is based on an episteme rooted in Tantra, a world view that allows for a multi-layering of discourse to occur in order to greatly extend the university's mandate as a cultural catalyst for future generations. It is argured that Tantra, which is situated in a resurgent indigenous consciousness, is both ancient and modern possessing as it does the deep wisdoms of this episteme while being energised with a liberatory ethic aimed at physical, social and spiritual emancipation from exploitative ideologies.     

China's search for the future: A genealogical approach

This paper is a dialectical inquiry, presenting a genealogy of, China futures discourses and visions from ancient times through to the, present. It uses both structural and macrohistorical based approaches. The identified worldviews are placed in their broader historical, epistemes; asked why change has occurred, how it fits within patterns of, history and what kind of futures are offered. It is unique in that I use, the futures triangle methodology to discuss the “pulls” of the future in, each historical era with the corresponding “pushes” of the present and, “weights” of the past. The article concludes with a theory of futures in, Chinese history and looks at which philosophies are likely to play a role, in the possible futures of China. The aim is to highlight which visions, and images have been victorious is affecting the present and influencing, the future.     

Why government banks underperform: A political interference view

This study proposes a political interference hypothesis to explain how political considerations depress the performance of government banks. We define political interference as a situation in which government bank executives are replaced within 12 months after the country’s major elections (presidential or parliamentary elections). We classify political and non-political government banks as those that experience or do not experience political interference, respectively. The hypothesis firstly suggests that once government banks undertake political interference, their financial performance deteriorates. That is, political banks display the worst performance, followed by non-political banks and private banks have the best performance. Next, we posit that the impact of political interference is greater in developing countries than in developed countries. Finally, we hypothesize that the underperformance of government banks will be reduced if we remove political interference. By employing bank data from 65 countries from the period of 2003–2007, our hypothesis effectively explains why government banks in developed countries escape relatively unscathed, while those in developing countries suffer significantly.