国际资本流动理论回顾：一个文献综述

国际资本流动会对一国的经济产生重要的影响。文章通过梳理从古典经济学到现代经济学200多年关于国际资本流动的成因理论,并从利率、汇率因素,政治因素,资产组合因素,货币政策因素以及国际货币危机因素五个方面对国际资本流动理论进行分类总结,通过对不同学说成因的阐述,得出国际资本流动理论的研究展望：金融衍生工具将会成为国际资本流动的主要载体;国际资本流动的参与者将发生较大变化;对新兴国家资本流动的研究。     

International reserves and gross capital flows dynamics

This paper explores the role of international reserves as a stabilizer of international capital flows, in particular during periods of global financial stress. In contrast with previous contributions, aimed at explaining net capital flows, we focus on the behavior of gross capital flows. We analyze an extensive cross-country quarterly database – 63 countries, 1991–2010 – using standard panel regressions. We document significant heterogeneity in the response of resident investors to financial stress and relate it to a previously undocumented channel through which reserves act as a buffer during financial stress. A robust result of the analysis is that international reserves facilitate financial disinvestment overseas by residents – a fall in capital outflows. This partially offsets the drop in foreign capital inflows observed in such periods. For the whole sample, we also find that larger stocks of international reserves are linked to higher gross inflows and lower gross outflows. These results, which challenge current approaches to measuring reserve adequacy, call for refining such tools to better account for the role of resident investors.     

International equity flows, marginal conditional stochastic dominance and diversification

The weak empirical evidence linking diversification and international equity flows calls into question the diversification paradigm at the international level and the analytical framework it implies. Using the concept of Marginal Conditional Stochastic Dominance (MCSD) to estimate the diversification opportunities, this paper reexamines the role that diversification opportunities play in the determination of international equity flows. It provides strong evidence that when diversification opportunities are measured in terms of MCSD, they are significant determinants of international equity flows. Capital flows into dominant markets and flees markets that are dominated. These results are robust with respect to a range of conventional control variables documented in the outstanding literature.     

What moves international stock and bond markets?

We study the relation between international mutual fund flows and the different return components of aggregate equity and bond markets. First, we decompose international equity and bond market returns into changes in expectations of future real cash payments, interest rates, exchange rates, and discount rates. News about future cash flows, rather than discount rates, is the main driver of international stock returns. This evidence is in contrast with the typical results reported only for the US. Inflation news instead is the main driver of international bond returns. Next, we turn to the interaction between these return components and international portfolio flows. We find evidence consistent with price pressure, short-term trend chasing, and short-run overreaction in the equity market. We also find that international bond flows to emerging markets are more sensitive to interest rate shocks than equity flows.     

内外部金融周期差异如何影响中国跨境资本流动?

本文揭示了内外部金融周期差异影响跨境资本流动的机制,并以美国为外部经济代表,基于1998年第一季度至2018年第一季度数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)中国跨境资本流动波动主要来自短期资本流动波动;分类看,其他投资波动较大;方向上看,流入波动要大于流出波动。(2)利差、汇差、资产价差(股指变动差异和房价变动差异)是影响跨境资本流动的重要因素,汇差和资产价差对短期资本流动影响尤甚。(3)内外部金融周期差异变动对资本流入的影响比对资本流出的影响更明显。(4)近年来,利差对跨境资本流动影响减弱,汇差和资产价差对跨境资本流动影响增强。结果说明,防范跨境资本流动风险要关注其他投资资本流动大幅波动风险,同时注意防范汇率和资产价格波动共振对跨境资本流动的冲击。     

Harmonisation or discord? The critical role of the IASB conceptual framework review

The IASB has achieved great success in extending the adoption of international financial reporting standards, but it has also encountered opposition at national and regional levels. Some of this opposition arises from differences in national accounting cultures, which are embedded in the market structures and institutional and legal frameworks within which business entities operate. These issues are particularly apparent in the debate on the IASB’s revision of its conceptual framework, which expresses its own vision of an international accounting culture. An important example is the issue of whether stewardship should be a distinct fundamental objective of financial reporting.     

‘Rules of the game’ during the International Gold Standard: England and Germany

The paper suggests an alternative framework to test hypotheses about central bank policy rules during the International Gold Standard. This framework is inspired by work of Mundell (1968) on optimal central bank policies, and more recent literature on the theory of economic policy, which stems from Luca's (1976) critique. Empirical tests obtained from this approach are quite different from those appearing in the empirical literature on the Gold Standard.The results of the tests indicate that the Bank of England was not optimally targeting international gold flows. Inthe case of the Rechsbank, the hyphothesis that international gold flows were optimally targeted is not rejected at the 5 per level. Thus the data suggest that the Reichsbank was following the ‘rules of the game’, whereas the Bank of England was not.     

The international monetary system: The quest for stability

The short-run market behaviour of international exchange rates is an insignificant influence on the state of the international monetary order. And an analysis of the rational choices available to institutions and governments often reveals less about the likely outcomes than a study of their actual behaviour. Stability in the international monetary order requires that the pattern of capital and savings flows be closely related. There is no guarantee that these patterns will ever coincide.     

中国的短期国际资本流动——基于月度VAR模型的三重动因解析

本文在已有文献的基础上,选择短期国际资本流动及套利、套汇和套价三类因素共六个变量,采集2002年1月至2011年6月的中国月度数据构建VAR模型,分析三类因素对中国短期国际资本流动的驱动因素影响。结果表明,中国短期国际资本流动在较大程度上由其自身变化解释;在三大因素的可解释部分中,套汇因素的影响最大,且主要表现为预期汇率驱动,套价因素的影响次之,其表现为股价和房价驱动,套利因素的影响极弱。这一结论与中国外汇市场和货币市场的现状密切相关,同时对短期国际资本流入的监测管理和人民币汇率制度改革具有重要的启示意义。     

资本流动对中国国际收支的影响

本文从分析中国国际收支失衡局面的形成原因入手,主要探讨了资本流动在国际收支失衡中的决定性作用,指出这种资本流动形式具有较大的潜在不稳定性,在目前人民币汇率弹性还不够充分时,资本项目尤其是对于资本流出的管制不宜过快放开。     

International Portfolio Investment Flows

This article develops a model of international equity portfolio investment flows based on differences in informational endowments between foreign and domestic investors. It is shown that when domestic investors possess a cumulative information advantage over foreign investors about their domestic market, investors tend to purchase foreign assets in periods when the return on foreign assets is high and to sell when the return is low. The implications of the model are tested using data on United States (U.S.) equity portfolio flows.     

International capital mobility: net versus gross stocks and flows

Feldstein and Horioka (1980) observed that net capital flows have been small in relation to domestic saving and investment flows for OECD countries in the post-war period, which they interpreted as evidence of low capital mobility. This paper argues that the correlation between gross domestic and international financial flows can be a better indicator of capital mobilitythan net capital flows. Contrary to the conventional wisdom among international economists, gross flows have been small in relation to gross domestic asset creation for OECD countries, although by this measure the degree of capital mobility increased in the 1980s.     

European Banking Integration: Don’t Put the Cart before the Horse

This paper reviews the progress in European banking integration over the last twenty years, and evaluates the current system of banking supervision and deposit insurance based on ‘home country’ control. The public policy implications to draw from the paper are threefold: First, after a relatively slow start, European banking integration is gaining momentum, in terms of cross‐border flows, market share of foreign banks in several domestic markets, and cross‐border M&As of significant size. If this trend continues, the issue of adequate supervision and safety nets in an integrated European banking market will become even more pressing. Second, although until recently banks have relied mostly on subsidiary structures to go cross‐border, this is changing with the recent creation of the European company statute, which facilitates cross‐border branch banking. A review of the case of the Scandinavian bank, Nordea Bank AB, helps to understand some remaining barriers to integration, and the supervisory issues raised by branch banking. Third, it is argued that the principle of ‘home country’ supervision is unlikely to be adequate in the future for large international banks. Because the closure of an international bank would be likely to have cross‐border spillovers, and because some small European countries might be unable to finance the bail‐out of their very large banks, centralization, or at least Europe‐wide coordination, of the decision to close or bail‐out international banks is needed. This raises the issue of European funding of bail‐out costs, European banking supervision, and European deposit insurance.     

Conditional performance evaluation and the relevance of money flows for Australian international equity funds

This paper assesses the importance of fund flows in the performance evaluation of Australian international equity funds. Two concepts of fund flows are considered in the context of a conditional asset pricing model. The first measure is net fund flow relative to fund size and the second is net fund flow relative to sector flows. We find that incorporating a fund flow measure relative to the sector flow results in a reduction of measured perverse market timing. The results indicate that, at the individual fund level, cash flows are relevant in assessing management outcomes.     

Dynamics of international financial networks with risk management

In this paper, we develop an international financialnetwork model in which the sources of funds and the intermediaries are multicriteria decision-makers and are concerned with both net revenue maximization and risk minimization. The model allows for both physical as well as electronic transactions and considers three tiers of decision-makers who may be located in distinct countries and may conduct their transactions in different currencies. We describe the behaviour of the various decision-makers, along with their optimality conditions, and derive the variational inequality formulation of the governing equilibrium conditions. We then propose a dynamic adjustment process which yields the evolution of the financial flows and prices and demonstrate that it can be formulated as a projected dynamical system. We also provide qualitative properties including stability analysis results. Finally, we discuss a discrete-time algorithm which can be applied to track the dynamic trajectories and yields the equilibrium financial flows and prices. We illustrate both the modelling framework as well as the computational procedure with several numerical international financial network examples.     

Do corporate insiders circumvent insider trading regulations? The case of stock repurchases

We use calculated values of standardized abnormal insider trading activity to investigate for patterns of unusual insider activity around fixed-price and Dutch auction repurchase announcements. Firms are classified according to whether the repurchase is signaling information about future cash flows, about the distribution of excess free cash flows, or about management's attempts to maintain control in the presence of a takeover. We find below normal levels of sales well before the event and above normal levels of sales after the event. This tendency is strongest for fixed-price offers and for firm's conveying information about future cash flows, and is absent for firms involved in takeovers. No evidence exists of abnormal levels of purchases before or after the event. We interpret the evidence as consistent with insiders successfully circumventing policies and regulations designed to prevent the exploitation of private information by timing the pattern of their security sales.     

The curse of globalised culture: the fall of Indian cinema foretold

Indian popular cinema, at the present juncture, is caught in a fix marked by two opposite trends—the overall decline in quality of the modern film resulting in rejection by audiences (as seen in endless commercial failures) and the nostalgic reverence among people about the classic films of earlier years, which had entertained and mesmerised them in a discourse that was beautiful, exciting and emotionally satisfying. This paper argues that the current decline in quality is part and outcome of the wider globalisation processes, consequently delinking cinema from the earlier creative roots. In this context, it makes some projections about the future of this cinema (and television) and suggests a set of future options to resurrect it from its present decline and to help the medium reinvent its past glory and social relevance.     

Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy

Adjustments in bank leverage act as the linchpin in the monetary transmission mechanism that works through fluctuations in risk-taking. In the international context, we find evidence of monetary policy spillovers on cross-border bank capital flows and the US dollar exchange rate through the banking sector. A contractionary shock to US monetary policy leads to a decrease in cross-border banking capital flows and a decline in the leverage of international banks. Such a decrease in bank capital flows is associated with an appreciation of the US dollar.     

Mutual fund portfolio trading and investor flow

I estimate the extent to which mutual fund portfolio trading of securities is triggered by investor flows into and out of the funds, and find that this liquidity-induced portfolio trading activity is smaller than previously estimated by Edelen (1999). I obtain estimates from a much larger and broader sample of funds than Edelen’s (1999) sample. Portfolio managers of international funds trade a smaller fraction of investor flow than do those of domestic funds. Index funds invest a larger fraction. A funds’ usage of futures contracts does not have a statistically significant effect on how it trades in response to investor flows, but the unpredictability of investor flow weakly affects the trading response to flow.     

Technical modernism and social conservatism: France's communications ‘illness’

‘Television of the future’, telematics, videodiscs—information and communications technologies are constantly developing and new products coming on to the market. Governments have, from time to time, become concerned about the possible effects of this flood of new technology on national cultures and economies. For over a decade commissions and inquiries in both industrial countries and international organizations have attempted—with varying degrees of success—to identify the potential benefits and dangers of this technological revolution, and have proposed a range of development paths and regulatory measures. Fundamental differences of opinion exist about analysis of the situation and possible regulation, but one fact is at least universally accepted—new communications technology is global in scope, although each country reacts to it in its own way. The global development of new telecommunications systems seems to demonstrate the hold of multinational enterprise on all societies—the efficient standardization of ideas and culture as well as technological hardware, of basic consumer goods for human survival as well as weapons which could eradicate human life.