The impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate

Understanding the effects and transmission of international spillovers is key to ensuring that the best possible decisions are reached by central banks – particularly those of small open economies. This paper analyses the impact of international spillovers on Swiss inflation and the exchange rate, and examines the response of the Swiss National Bank (SNB) to these phenomena. In doing so, the paper compares the recent crisis period starting in mid-2008 with earlier decades. While the exchange rate absorbed a sizeable share of global inflationary pressure before the crisis, spillover effects transmitted through the exchange rate have been the principal cause of the significant decline in Swiss inflation since 2008. The SNB has therefore repeatedly adjusted its monetary policy – and resorted to some unconventional measures – in order to contain these spillover effects. These actions have so far kept the adverse effects of international spillovers on Swiss inflation at bay. However, as Switzerland's experience since the onset of the financial crisis shows, controlling inflation may occasionally become more difficult for small open economies.     

国际贸易再平衡与汇率政策的关系

全球贸易的不平衡,表现为美国急剧上升的经常账户赤字与中日等国家不断累积的贸易顺差之间的矛盾,并成为美国施压人民币汇率的理由。文章分析表明,国内经济结构、贸易方式甚至国际货币体系等因素部对国际贸易的不平衡构成重大影响,汇率政策不是国际贸易失衡的本质及唯一原因,也不是国际贸易再平衡的解药。寻求国际贸易再平衡的出路,关键因素不是汇率,而要从经济结构调整、贸易方式转变以及货币体系改革中寻求答案。     

Combining forecasts: some results on exchange and interest rates

The aim of this work is to investigate whether the combination of forecasts plays an important role in the improvement of forecast accuracy Particular attention is paid to: (a) the methods of forecasting (the methods compared are neural networks, fuzzy logic, GARCH models, switching regime and chaotic dynamics); (b) combining the forecasts provided by the different methods. This work has also the aim of revising a short-term econometric forecast using a longer-term forecast. The revision process usually runs the opposite way (revision is made on a longer-term forecast using a short-term one to reflect the current available information, but it is not excluded that it is possible to proceed as described above. Daily data from the financial market is used. Some empirical applications on exchange and interest rates are given.     

Interest rates and exchange rates: Some new empirical results

This paper presents indirect evidence on the behavior on the real interest rate by studying the correlations between changes in nominal interest rates and in exchange rates. These correlations are examined both before and after October 6, 1979. The empirical evidence supports the views that monetary shocks affect the real rate and that the change in Fed monetary policy on October 6 led to greater variation in the real rate.     

中国第一家国际股权交易所落户天津

今年3月13日,天津市《滨海新区综合配套改革试验方案》获得了国务院的正式批复。在这次获批的综合配套改革方案中,亦包含了天津市获得全国性OTC市场试验权。天津市政府紧锣密鼓抓紧制定OTC市场试验的方案和详细的规划安排。8月4日,滨海国际股权交易所筹备组正式成立,按照筹备工作安排展开各项筹备工作,交易所的各项规章、制度、会员管理、规则、流程等文件经过邀请多方相关专家三次的审核修改,目前已完成全部规则及合同的制订工作。9月28日,滨海国际股权交易所（简称“股交所”）在天津完成工商注册工作。10月28日,股交所正式对外试运营。明年6月融洽会期间将正式揭牌营业。为更多地了解中国首家国际股权交易所的规则和运作进展情况,《国际融资》杂志记者专程采访了滨海国际股权交易所董事长王阳先生     

The loanable funds theory and the dynamics of exchange rates: The Mundell model revisited

This paper shows that Mundell's model of perfect capital mobility is logically consistent only in the framework of the loanable funds theory. It then develops a loanable funds version of the Mundell model and shows that exchange rate overshooting or undershooting naturally occurs in this ‘corrected’ version of the Mundell model.     

Adjustment patterns to commodity terms of trade shocks: The role of exchange rate and international reserves policies

We analyze the way in which Latin American countries have adjusted to commodity terms of trade (CTOT) shocks in the 1970–2007 period. Specifically, we investigate the degree to which the active management of international reserves and exchange rates impacted the transmission of international price shocks to real exchange rates. We find that active reserve management not only lowers the short run impact of CTOT shocks significantly, but also affects the long run adjustment of REER, effectively lowering its volatility. We also show that relatively small increases in the average holdings of reserves by Latin American economies (to levels still well below other emerging regions current averages) would provide a policy tool as effective as a fixed exchange rate regime in insulating the economy from CTOT shocks. Reserve management could be an effective alternative to fiscal or currency policies for relatively trade closed countries and economies with relatively poor institutions or high government debt. Finally, we analyze the effects of active use of reserve accumulation aimed at smoothing REERs. The result support the view that “leaning against the wind” is potent, but more effective when intervening to support weak currencies rather than intervening to slow down the pace of real appreciation. The active reserve management reduces substantially REER volatility.     

Political shocks, international reserves and the real exchange rate—The Argentine case

Exogenous shocks to international reserves are introduced as an indicator for exchange rate adjustments. These reserves shocks are identified for Argentina in the 1970s, and they appear to have been induced by political upheavals as well as by changes in the external terms of trade. Granger and modified Sims causality tests indicate that the shocks to reserves did lead the real exchange rate. From the seemingly erratic series of mini and maxi devaluations, a rule of crawling/galloping peg is estimated, with the reserves shocks as significant independent variables that affected the pace of devaluations. The crawling peg, used as an instrument to pursue an international reserves target, was the channel through which changes in the political and economic environment of the country were transmitted to fluctuations of its real exchange rate.     

An open-economy macro-finance model of international interdependence: The OECD,US and the UK

This paper develops a multi-country macro-finance model to study international economic and financial linkages. This approach models the economy and financial markets jointly using both types of data to throw light on such issues. The world economy is modelled using data for the US and aggregate OECD economies as well as the US Treasury bond market using latent variables to represent a common inflation trend and a US real interest rate factor. We find strong evidence of global effects on both the US and UK, calling into question the standard closed economy macro-finance specification. These economic linkages also help to explain the co-movement of yields in the US and UK Treasury bond markets.     

The impact of exchange rate risk on international asset pricing under various market structures

This article derives international equity pricing relations by taking into account inflationary exchange risk under various forms of market segmentation/integration. In a mean-variance framework, a two-country, two-period, two-goods model is analyzed under three different market structures: segmented, mildly segmented and integrated. It is found that as long as investors are consuming imported goods, in the presence of market frictions, inflationary exchange risk is an important determinant of real equity prices. This is the case because inflationary exchange rate affects the real purchasing power of investors.

A New Zealand failure prediction model: Development and international implications

In this study we develop a failure prediction model for New Zealand listed companies and theorise on the usefulness and international implications of the results. In developing the model, we obtained data from 60 failing and 60 matched non failing New Zealand listed companies, providing an unusually rich database for model development. Binary logistic regression (logit) was applied on 21 potentially significant variables. The predictive strength was tested using holdout tests, with support from applications to more recent company data. Multicollinearity was minimised through a theoretically informed selection of variables, the Pearson correlation and stepwise regression. The resulting model is significant to 91.7% overall, which tested well for prediction and non-multicollinearity, and reveals a unique combination of variables. We conclude by considering the research implications of small-market model development, and the benefits of local, contextually-based models as evidenced by the results of this study.     

The impacts of electronic commerce on auditing practices: an auditing process model for evidence collection and validation

The main purposes of this paper are twofold. First, the paper identifies and discusses the potential impacts of electronic commerce on auditing practices in the emerging paperless on-line transaction environment. Second, it provides two auditing process models that incorporate modern network security techniques and show how an audit can be conducted in an EC environment. A periodical auditing process model (PAPM) is proposed to demonstrate how secure electronic technologies can be used to facilitate the auditor's evidence collection and validation process for annual and semi-annual audits. We also present a continuous auditing process model (CAPM) which extends the functions of PAPM for continuous auditing. In CAPM, a real-time transaction monitoring system is used to link to firms' accounting information systems for assisting the auditor to detect abnormal activities and generate exception reports on a continuous basis. The CAPM approach intends not only to ensure integrity and effectiveness of the entire accounting system, but also to guarantee the correctness and usefulness of the constantly generated financial statements for public dissemination. The main contribution of this paper is that it illustrates a conceptual framework which shows the feasibility of continuously auditing electronic transactions in the EC environment. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Volatility and correlation in international stock markets and the role of exchange rate fluctuations

This paper develops a direct, explicit model for the role of exchange rate fluctuations in international stock markets and examines how and to what extent volatility and correlations in equity markets are influenced by exchange rate fluctuations. Evidence presented in this paper indicates that a higher foreign exchange rate variability mostly increases local stock market volatility but decreases volatility for the US stock market. The extent to which stock market volatility is influenced by foreign exchange variability is greater for local markets than for the US market, due to the fact that exchange rate changes are more strongly correlated with local equity market returns than the US market returns. We find that a higher exchange rate fluctuation marginally decreases the US/local equity market correlation. While exchange rate fluctuations held a relatively large fraction of the variation in local stock market returns, there was no significant influence on the US/local equity market correlation.     

Money and exchange rates in the Grossman-Weiss-Rotemberg model

We analyze the impact of monetary policy on inflation, interest rates and exchange rates in a model with segmented asset markets developed by Grossman and Weiss (1983) and Rotemberg (1984, 1985). We find parameters for which real and nominal exchange rates in this model are (1) much more volatile than interest rates, inflation rates, and money growth rates, (2) highly correlated with each other, and (3) highly persistent. While this model fails to match the data in other important respects, it illustrates a potentially useful approach to modelling exchange rate behavior.     

Forecasting exchange rates under parameter and model uncertainty

We introduce a forecasting method that closely matches the econometric properties required by exchange rate theory. Our approach formally models (i) when (and if) predictor variables enter or leave a regression model, (ii) the degree of parameter instability, (iii) the (potentially) rapidly changing relevance of regressors, and (iv) the appropriate shrinkage intensity over time. We consider (short-term) forecasting of six major US dollar exchange rates using a standard set of macro fundamentals. Our results indicate the importance of shrinkage and flexible model selection/averaging criteria to avoid poor forecasting results.     

国际再保险业战略发展模式及其对我国的借鉴

按照再保险战略发展模式的历史演进顺序,将目前国际再保险业的战略发展模式总结为四种:专业再保险模式,再保与直保一体化模式,金融一体化单元模式和多元化单元模式。结合选取了不同发展模式的典型国际再保险公司,对不同模式进行分析和比较,并进一步提出了我国再保险业战略发展建议。     

Excess returns and international diversification: The Scandinavian view

The paper discusses excess returns within four Scandinavian stock markets and also how Scandinavian returns are related to the returns in non-Scandinavian markets. Some underlying reasons for the observed economically weak relationships between markets are reviewed. Moreover, some reasons why the interrelationships between markets can be expected to increase in the future are provided.     

The international system : Limits to forecasting

This article describes the obstacles which stand in the way of analysis of the future of the international system and identifies research needs for surmounting them. Such forecasting must be based on an understanding of the structure of the system and its evolution, yet given the heterogeneity of existing paradigms in the study of international relations, it is difficult to give coherent expression to that structure. Progress in forecasting research on the international system therefore implies a lessening of the heterogeneity of those paradigms, and suggestions are made with this end in view.