Man on the throne of God? The societal implications of the bio-medical revolution

The article deals with the possible influences on society of developments in the bio-medical field (which is argued that will be the main topic of this decade) especially cloning, ‘the Book of life’ and eugenics. It is argued that the present resistance against these developments may diminish under the influence of biologism which is on the rise. The author investigates these societal influences in four fields: the welfare state (will the notion of collective solidarity disappear), citizenship, meritocracy (can we expect new class divisions?) and democratic politics (the rise of new political cleavages).     

Cross-asset relations,correlations and economic implications

This paper examines the interrelations and time-varying correlations for eight assets. One-year rolling correlations reveal that each of the 28 correlations exhibit both positive and negative values. Linear regressions reveal that given macroeconomic and financial variables contain predictive power for different asset return correlations. The term structure of interest rates and consumer sentiment feature as prominent predictor variables. Structural break tests and non-linear regressions indicate a cycling of correlations between high and low risk periods. In seeking to consider the economic content of the interrelations, we construct a safe and risky portfolio and show that the correlation between these portfolios can allow for improved market timing. Further, the safe and risky portfolio returns and correlation exhibit predictive power for macroeconomic conditions and may be used in a leading indicator role. The results presented here should be of interest to investors and policy-makers as well as academics wishing to examine the relations between both asset returns and financial and real markets.     

The next scientific revolution

For decades, computer scientists have tried to teach computers to think like human experts. Until recently, most of those efforts have failed to come close to generating the creative insights and solutions that seem to come naturally to the best researchers, doctors, and engineers. But now, Tony Hey, a VP of Microsoft Research, says we're witnessing the dawn of a new generation of powerful computer tools that can "mash up" vast quantities of data from many sources, analyze them, and help produce revolutionary scientific discoveries. Hey and his colleagues call this new method of scientific exploration "machine learning." At Microsoft, a team has already used it to innovate a method of predicting with impressive accuracy whether a patient with congestive heart failure who is released from the hospital will be readmitted within 30 days. It was developed by directing a computer program to pore through hundreds of thousands of data points on 300,000 patients and "learn" the profiles of patients most likely to be rehospitalized. The economic impact of this prediction tool could be huge: If a hospital understands the likelihood that a patient will "bounce back," it can design programs to keep him stable and save thousands of dollars in health care costs. Similar efforts to uncover important correlations that could lead to scientific breakthroughs are under way in oceanography, conservation, and AIDS research. And in business, deep data exploration has the potential to unearth critical insights about customers, supply chains, advertising effectiveness, and more.     

The safety first expected utility model: Experimental evidence and economic implications

Roy’s [Roy, A., 1952. Safety first and the holding of assets. Econometrica 20 (3), 431–449] safety first criterion advocates the minimization of the probability of outcomes below a certain “disaster” level. This paper examines safety first theoretically and experimentally. We find that safety first plays a crucial role in decision-making, inducing choices that cannot be explained by, and even contradict, risk-aversion, Prospect Theory, and loss-aversion in general. Yet, safety first alone cannot explain individual choice. Therefore, we propose an expected utility – safety first (EU–SF) model where decisions are made based on a weighted average of the safety first criterion and standard expected utility maximization. We experimentally estimate these relative weights, and discuss their economic implications.     

韩国经济转型过程中的家庭债务问题与启示

亚洲金融危机使韩国政府意识到出口导向型增长模式的脆弱性,韩国政府于是将政策重心逐步从促进出口贸易转向刺激国内消费。然而,在经济转型过程中,韩国的家庭债务持续攀升,成为威胁经济增长和金融稳定的主要风险,对韩国经济社会产生一系列不利影响。文章对韩国家庭债务的特征、起因、影响等问题进行深入研究,并结合中国实际得出一些有益的启示。     

统计信息的革命科学决策的基石--记中国工商银行综合统计系统(CS2002)

对于商业 银行来说,统 计信 息系统 是介 于前台 业务操 作 系统 和 后 台 管 理决 策 分 析 系 统 之 间 的 至 关 重 要 的“中间 件”。在数据上升 到信息,进 而凝聚成知 识的过程中,在业 务、管 理和 决策的 流程 中,统 计信 息都起 到 了承上启下 的关键作 用。统计 信息系统 准确、及时 、完整地反映 当 前业 务 经 营 状 况, 能 够 为 决 策 层 准 确 把 握 经 营 情况、及 时做出科学 决策提供坚 实的基础 。也正 因为如此,在国 内银 行业信 息化 建设 进入新 阶段 后,统 计信 息 领域的信息 化建设已 经成为各大 商业银行关 注的重…     

Family planning: the unfinished revolution

This is a general overview of family planning programs in developing countries, with a focus on east and southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. The author concludes that "by the year 2000, the number of contraceptive users in developing countries will have to be 40 percent higher if fertility declines are to match projections." Suggestions for program improvement are included.     

Future fall-out from the genetic revolution

It is argued that the genetic engineering revolution now under way is fundamentally different from other industrial revolutions in that humans are developing the technological power to change themselves. This article begins with an overview of the technology involved, discusses the Human Genome Initiative (HGI) programme and gene therapy research, and then uses several possible future scenarios to discuss potential legal and ethical issues.     

The economic situation in the Republic of Belarus

Summary For some years now the Republic of Belarus has pursued an economic policy strategy that appears to exert a certain attraction on Russian policy. The Belarusan concept is based, at heart, on the attempt to raise output quickly with the help of direct grants to enterprises, financed by the central bank. This is associated with extremely rapid growth of the money supply. Central to the negative economic trend in Belarus is the substantial overvaluation of the official exchange rate. In an attempt to counter the numerous negative repercussions of this policy, the regime is being forced to adopt ever more wide-ranging administrative interventions in economic processes. The economic outcome is such, however, that recently even President Lukashenko posed the rhetorical question ‘why is our people getting poorer from month to month..., when our industry and agriculture are developing so dynamically?’³⁰ The political leadership sees the answer in the financial crisis in Russia and a poor harvest in Belarus due to unfavourable weather conditions. Its own economic policy concept is still considered to be correct, indeed is even held up as a model for Russia. However, in the course of 1998 there was an unmistakable decline in the official rates of the GDP growth and of its aggregates. Inflation soared to more than 180%. The negative economic trend is expected to deteriorate further in 1999; GDP is forecast to contract by the order of 5%, and inflation will remain in triple figures.     

The economic role of foreclosures

We consider the economic consequences of changing the foreclosure rules. By incorporating renegotiation into the analysis, we show that although renegotiation decreases the number of foreclosures it can make the effects of foreclosure more significant. Even when foreclosure does not actually occur, a change in foreclosure rules changes the threat points of lender and borrower in any renegotiation, and thus changes the effective interest rate that the lender receives. In the long run, stated interest rates on loans will adjust to compensate for any change in the effective interest rate. We also examine the impact of a change in foreclosure laws on the borrower's welfare.     

全球经济没有了“同此凉热”

当金融危机向全球袭来时,"环球同此凉热",于是全球有了少有的合作和政策协调。但是,当全球经济在走向复苏的时候,却表现出不同的政策走势,美国政府实行量化宽松政策,并称美国无通胀压力,请参看本栏目文章《美国宽松政策短期难改变》),而欧元区国家目前却面临通胀压力和经济复苏步伐各异的异常考验,请     

关注经济快速增长下的隐忧

中国当前的经济增长具有坚实基础,未来几年仍将继续保持高速增长的势头。但在经济繁荣的背后,更应关注存在的问题与风险。目前经济运行中存在资产价格大幅度波动和通货膨胀较快发展两大隐忧,其主要原因是经济中的结构性失衡问题。如果结构失衡不消除,未来的经济增长就会受到很大威胁。因此,在当前宏观政策的选择上,应该采取长短结合,标本兼治的办法,既解近忧,也消远虑。