EXPORT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NAMIBIA: A GRANGER CAUSALITY ANALYSIS

The purpose of this paper is to analyse the causality between exports and GDP of Namibia and to evaluate the relationship of these variables for the period 1970 to 2005. Time‐series econometric techniques (Granger causality and cointegration) are applied to test the hypothesis of a growth strategy led by exports. It tests whether export Granger causes GDP, or whether the causality runs from GDP to exports, or if there is bi‐directional causality between exports and GDP. The results revealed that exports Granger cause GDP and GDP per capita. This suggests that the export‐led growth strategy through various incentives has a positive influence on growth.     

Economic growth and income inequality in the Asia-Pacific region: A comparative study of China,Japan, South Korea,and the United States

This paper builds an inequality-growth-redistribution nexus, and applies the Engle–Granger two-step ECM approach to estimate the long-run and short-run relationships between inequality and growth for four economies: China, Japan, South Korea, and the United States. Our estimation results support the S-shaped curve hypothesis relating GDP per capita to inequality with different starting points for the four economies. For the reverse relationship, we find a positive causal relationship for China, Japan, and the United States, indicating that increased income inequality spurred economic growth. In addition, we find mixed results on the effect of trade openness on inequality and growth. Trade openness reduced inequality in the United States and Japan, worsened it in China and had no significant effect in South Korea. In the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, exports provided an impetus to economic growth for Japan. As for redistribution, although fiscal redistributive measures reduced inequality in Japan, they played no major role in the other three countries. With regard to the inequality-GDP per capita relationship, all countries except for China show a negative effect of fiscal redistribution on GDP per capita.     

Understanding Cross-Country Differences in Exporter Premia: Comparable Evidence for 14 Countries

We use comparable micro level panel data for 14 countries and a set of identically specified empirical models to investigate the relationship between exports and productivity. Our overall results are in line with the big picture that is by now familiar from the literature: exporters are more productive than non-exporters when observed and unobserved heterogeneity is controlled for, and these exporter productivity premia tend to increase with the share of exports in total sales; there is evidence in favour of self-selection of more productive firms into export markets, but nearly no evidence in favour of the learning-by-exporting hypothesis. We document that the exporter premia differ considerably across countries in identically specified empirical models. In a meta-analysis of our results we find, consistent with theoretical predictions, that productivity premia are larger in countries with lower export participation rates, with more restrictive trade policies, lower per capita GDP, less effective government and worse regulatory quality, and in countries exporting to relatively more distant markets. JEL no.  F14, D21     

Re‐Visiting Financial Development and Economic Growth Nexus: The Role of Capitalization in Bangladesh

This paper revisits the relationship between financial development and economic growth in Bangladesh by incorporating trade openness in production function using quarter frequency data over the period of 1976‐2012. We applied combined Bayer–Hanck cointegration approach to examine cointegration among the series. Our empirical evidence suggests that development of financial sector facilitates economic growth but capitalization impedes it. In addition, trade openness stimulates economic growth. Labour is also positively linked to economic growth. The vector error correction model Granger causality results divulge that financial development causes real per capita gross domestic product (GDP) growth, and resultantly, real per capita GDP growth causes financial development in a Granger sense. The results also show that trade and labour Granger cause economic growth. The findings of the paper provide insights for policymakers to use financial development and trade openness as a tool for sustained economic growth in the long run. The paper also suggests policymakers to utilise capitalization in a way that is beneficial for economic growth of Bangladesh.     

财政分权、经济增长与外贸依存度——基于1978～2007年改革开放30年数据的实证分析

本文以我国1978～2007年的数据,运用协整、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数研究了我国财政分权、经济增长对外贸依存度的动态影响。研究发现:长期内,财政分权会推进外贸依存度的提高,而短期内财政分权对外贸依存度的作用不显著;以人均GDP衡量的经济增长,在短期内可提高外贸依存度水平,而在长期中却会降低外贸依存度。分析表明,财政分权引致的地方政府为经济增长而产生的对FDI和出口的激励,以及贸易升级、产业结构调整、内需导向型经济增长模式,是财政分权、经济增长和外贸依存度之间动态关系产生的内在逻辑。     

福建省经济发展和进出口贸易的研究

回顾了国内外学者对经济增长与对外贸易的关系所进行的研究,利用福建省1981-2007年国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额的数据进行协整分析和Granger因果检验。实证分析的结果表明：①福建省国内生产总值、出口总额、进口总额之间存在长期稳定的关系。②福建省的经济增长、出口增长、进口增长之间不存在Granger因果关系。     

Trade and GDP Growth: Causal Relations in the United States and Canada

Causal relations between the growth rates of exports, imports, and the GDP of Canada and the United States are studied using the vector error correction (VEC) model. Utilizing time-series annual data (1948-1996), Granger causality tests are performed within the framework of the VEC model. Bidirectional causality is supported for Canada from the foreign sector to GDP and vice versa. A weaker relationship between the foreign sector and GDP is statistically supported for the United States. These results are also supported by comparing the total trade (exports plus imports) shares to GDP of the two neighboring economies. The Granger causality tests suggest that Canada is a more open economy than the United States and more trade dependent.     

我国旅游服务贸易影响因素的实证研究

2000年以后,我国旅游服务贸易不断发展,但是影响旅游服务贸易的因素也不断变化。实证表明,货物贸易出口、交通投资、汇率和突发事件对旅游服务贸易出口影响比较大,旅游业从业人员和总资产额对出口影响不明显,而在影响旅游服务贸易进口的因素中人均GDP和汇率影响比较突出。     

On the Impact of Transportation Costs on Trade in a Multilateral World

This article proposes to account for the differences in the importance of transport costs, depending on characteristics of trading partners. In a multiregion model of trade in differentiated goods we expect a smaller impact of transport costs on a country's exports as a share of importer gross domestic product (GDP) the more (less) relatively capital-abundant the exporter (importer) is and the lower (higher) production costs are as captured by GDP at given factor endowments and diversity, all else equal. Empirically, this requires four interaction terms in addition to the direct impact of transport costs when estimating log-linear gravity models: one with the exporter GDP per capita or capital-labor ratio, a second one with the importer GDP per capita or capital-labor ratio, and a third and fourth with exporter and importer GDP, respectively. The hypotheses are strongly supported by the evidence from a large panel of bilateral trade between 1970 and 2000.     

EXPORT‐LED GROWTH HYPOTHESIS: FURTHER ECONOMETRIC EVIDENCE FROM SOUTH ASIA

This paper examines the export‐led growth (ELG) hypothesis for five South Asian countries through cointegration and multivariate Granger causality tests. Strong support for a long‐run relationship among exports, imports, and real output for all the countries except Sri Lanka were found. Feedback effects between exports and GDP for Bangladesh and Nepal and unidirectional causality from exports to output in the case of Pakistan were found. No causality between these variables was found for Sri Lanka and India, although for India GDP and exports did induce imports. A feedback effect between imports and GDP was also documented for Pakistan, Bangladesh, and Nepal, as well as unidirectional causality from imports to output growth for Sri Lanka. These and other findings are discussed from the standpoint of the export‐led growth hypothesis.     

Exports,imports and growth: New evidence on Italy: 1863–2004

The nexus between trade and economic growth in Italy has been widely debated by historiography. However, there are no long run analyses on this topic that cover the whole span from Unification to present days. This paper contributes to fill this gap by investigating the relationship between real exports, imports and GDP in Italy from 1863 to 2004 by using cointegration analysis and causality tests. The outcome suggests that these variables comove in the long run but the direction of causality varies across time. In the period prior to the First World War import growth led GDP growth that in turn led export growth. Conversely, in the post-Second World War period we have a strong bidirectionality between imports and exports consequent on the increase in intra-industry trade. We also find a weak support for export-led growth and growth-led imports. This suggests that exports were not the only or the main driver of economic growth. There was probably a multiplicity of factors at work, among which high rates of capital formation and the expansion of internal demand probably stood out.     

经济自由与经济增长:来自各国的证据

本文对美国传统基金会发布的经济自由度指数与各国经济增长水平进行了实证检验.结果表明,在控制了劳动力人口、资本存量以及人力资本等变量后,经济自由度与经济增长水平之间存在非常密切的关系,从而为自亚当·斯密以来的自由经济理论提供了新的证据.本文利用工具变量法,证明了经济自由是经济增长的原因,为这方面的实证研究做出了新的贡献.希望通过上述工作能够更好地理解制度因素(特别是自由经济制度)在推动经济增长中的关键作用以及导致各国之间经济差距的根源.     

What are China's real gains within global value chains? Measuring domestic value added in China's exports of manufactures

This paper aims to investigate China's gains of participating in global value chains (GVCs) in terms of GDP in exports (DVA - domestic value added) and the factors affecting China's gains. The paper decomposes the gross exports of China so as to get the components that make up total GDP in the exports of the country, namely the value-added exports and DVA that are returned from abroad. Then the two components are measured to obtain the scale of GDP in China's exports both on country and sector level. The results show that, firstly, both value-added exports and the GDP in China's exports are less than the traditional gross trade statistics, indicating that there is a gap of real trade gains under GVCs. Secondly, comparing whether the proportion of DVA in total exports, the proportion of DVA in exports of manufactures or the proportion of RDV in total DVA, the gaps between China and the developed countries such as the United States, Germany and Japan do exist. Especially, considering the RDV of China, the proportion is significantly lower than that of major developed countries such as the United States and Germany, indicating that China lags far behind developed countries in the capabilities of supplying high value-added intermediate goods. Lastly, the empirical results suggest that DVA in China's exports has progressively increased in response to the productivity enhancement; research and development (R&D) inputs and capital formation, and the synergies between R&D and vertical specialization affect China's DVA growth in exports positively.     

Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Evidence from Japan

Abstract

This article aims at analysing the role of foreign direct investment (FDI) outflows in economic performance and the impact of economic growth on outward FDI with the data from Japan. Bivariate and multivariate Granger causality frameworks have been used in this study. The results suggest that the conclusion of bivariate framework may not be valid because it allows omission of important variables. The results of the multivariate framework show that there is a long-run positive unidirectional causality from outward FDI to gross domestic product (GDP) per capita. In the short-run, both per capita income and outward FDI do not allow Granger causality.     

中国企业跨国并购外部动因的实证分析

中国企业跨国并购的外部动因有很多,本文主要着重阐述中国企业进行跨国并购所面临的宏观经济因素。选取1990～2008年的数据,运用单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验法和方程的回归拟合,以中国的人均GDP、外汇储备和出口为解释变量,跨国并购为被解释变量,对中国企业跨国并购的外部动因进行了实证分析。结果表明中国的人均GDP、外汇储备和出口都是影响中国企业进行跨国并购的重要因素,且人均GDP的影响较其他两个因素明显。     

Public Debt and Economic Growth in Emerging Market Economies

This paper empirically studies the relationship between public debt and economic growth for selected emerging market economies by performing panel data estimations. The results reveal a statistically significant positive correlation between public debt and the subsequent growth rate of per capita gross domestic product (GDP). Population and investment are also positively correlated with per capita growth, whereas the initial level of real GDP per capita exerts a negative influence on growth, implying conditional convergence. Other variables such as the inflation rate, the trade balance or the exchange rate do not yield a statistically significant effect with respect to economic growth.     

Economic performance and international trade engagement: the case of Portuguese manufacturing firms

By combining economic and financial data for Portuguese manufacturing firms with data on their exports and imports, we uncover some aspects of the relationship between international trade engagement and firms’ performances. In line with recent theoretical and empirical developments in the international trade literature: (i) we testify that Portuguese international trade is highly concentrated, especially on the import side, and both in inter- and intra-sector terms; (ii) we corroborate previous studies and theses according to which two-way traders outperform only importers, only exporters and above all domestic firms; (iii) we find that the greater the diversification of markets and goods (especially with regard to imports), the better the performance achieved by internationalised firms; (iv) we notice that the higher the intensity of firms’ international trade (especially imports), the better their performance; (v) we also present evidence that destination markets for exports and origin markets for imports are also important in explaining firm’s performance.     

Foreign aid as a promotional strategy

Developed countries are motivated by several forces when allocating aid to developing countries. The forces could be humanitarian in one country, and commercial self-interests in another. The principal objective of this study was to determine the effectiveness of aid as a promotional strategy for trade, and to investigate whether major donor countries are optimally allocating their aid resources to increase their export and total trade. Models were developed to explore the effectiveness of aid as a promotional instrument for exports and total trade. Donor exports and total trade were expressed as functions of aid, per capita GNP of the recipient country, and aid from competing donors. The study showed that exports and total trade responded to total expected aid contributions and per capita GNP of the recipient countries. Also, all donors, but one, were maximizing the returns to aid, given the level of trade with recipient countries and will be reluctant to increase aid flows, given the current trade level.     

Carbon emissions,trade liberalization,and the Japan–ASEAN interaction: A group-wise examination

As in any modern economy, trade is central to the progress of the economy in the Association of Southeast Asian Countries (ASEAN) region, but environmental degradation occurs with globalization. Using panel data from the period 1970–2006, this study examines the interaction between trade and the environment in terms of carbon emissions for the group of ASEAN countries. The results demonstrate that CO₂ emissions display an inverted-S shape in the region. In general, exports as a percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) are main contributors to carbon emissions in the developed, developing and late-developing ASEAN countries. The study found no evidence for the Foreign Direct Investment’s (FDI) deteriorating impact on environmental quality. Moreover, Japan’s imports from the region do not cause pollution while China’s imports stimulate the pollution per capita.     

Analysis of Chinese Manufacturing Export Duration

This paper studies the duration of Chinese manufacturing exports and its determinants, using disaggregated 6‐digit level Harmonized System product trade data from 1995 to 2007. Cox proportional hazard, Weibull and exponential models are used to examine the effects of various factors on export duration. It is revealed that export duration tends to be rather short‐lived. It is also found that GDP and GDP per capita of the export destination have positive effects on export duration, while trade relationships with distant and landlocked countries are generally of shorter duration. In addition, export duration is longer for differentiated and parts and components products, as well as products with large initial trade values. WTO membership is also important for longer export duration. Our empirical analysis suggests that developed markets, such as the USA and the EU, are important to China, and should still be the major sources for Chinese export growth in the long run. Moreover, technical innovation of firms and free trade agreement negotiations will be helpful for sustainable export growth.