The Eurozone’s Flaws Are Not Intrinsic

There seem to be two typical responses to the failure of the euro project that the last five years have exposed. The first, mostly from those outside the eurozone, is that the whole project was doomed from the start and should be abandoned. The second is that the only way forward is further political integration. However, the problems of the eurozone are not intrinsic to any attempt at a monetary union, but rather reflect design flaws in the particular version of monetary union that was embodied in the euro project.     

On the Relation of Monetary and Political Union

When EMU took effect in 1999, no progress in the direction of political union had been achieved — indeed, it had not even been attempted. Therefore, from the beginning the euro was confronted with a kind of sword of Damocles: can monetary union survive without political union?     

Sequencing and Depth of Regional Economic Integration: Lessons for the Americas from Europe

The paper first reviews Europe's experience with regional integration, stressing the political economy forces that governed the direction and speed of the process. It argues that the geographic spread of economic integration in Europe is driven by a domino effect by which each successive integration increases the pressure on non‐participants to join the integration effort. On the depth of integration, the paper argues that the path of European integration – from completion of the customs union, to the Single Market programme, to the Maastricht Treaty and monetary union – was dictated by a political economy dynamo set in motion by the unique institutional features established by the 1957 Treaty of Rome. Consequently, the lessons for other regions must be considered with great care.     

Governance of the Euro Area: Fiscal Union,Debt Union,Fiscal Freedom

Over the past three years, as the euro area has struggled with high levels of sovereign debt, it has been gradually developing into a debt union. However, this is not a sustainable arrangement. This article proposes two alternatives to a debt union — a fiscal union and a monetary union with fiscal freedom — and evaluates the pros and cons of each approach.     

The Euro's place in the world monetary system

The European Union is striding ahead on schedule towards European monetary union (EMU). Eleven member states will introduce the euro for book-keeping purposes on 1.1.1999, assigning responsibility for monetary policy to the European System of Central Banks. On 1.1.2002, the euro will also be in circulation as notes and coins, and the participating countries will abandon their national currencies by 30.6.2002 at the latest. But what part will the euro play in the world monetary system? And what conclusions do we need to draw?     

Weniger ist mehr – die EU in der Sackgasse eines zentralistischen Integrationsverständnisses

Current European integration very much focusses on harmonisation and convergence. This streamlining goes far beyond what is demanded by economic reasoning and turns out–as the euro crisis has demonstrated–to foster tensions among EU member states instead of promoting a flourishing common market. The authors outline an alternative approach which fosters a sense of political responsibility and is anchored in democratic rather than bureaucratic decision-making.     

EXCHANGE-RATE ARRANGEMENTS FOR NAFTA: Should We Mimic the EU?

Following on from the successful launch of the euro in the European Union, a vigorous debate has erupted in both Canada and Mexico as to whether NAFTA should also adopt a common currency. Several other types of exchange rate arrangements are also possible for the North American bloc, and the aim of this paper is to evaluate all of these alternatives. The paper evaluates the full range of possible exchange-rate arrangements for the NAFTA bloc of countries from economic, political and institutional perspectives. The paper identifies ten different exchange rate regimes and evaluates these regimes with regard to economic growth, international trade, economic integration, credibility of the arrangements, institution-building and political acceptability.     

The Unifying Role of the Single Currency

Perhaps the single most tangible symbol of the European Union is its single currency, the euro. Within the European Economic and Monetary Union, it was seen as a tool to ensure that European integration would be truly irreversible. However, the euro has also contributed to cleavages and asymmetries. This article reviews whether the euro can fulfil the unifying role envisioned for it, examing the importance of the euro in four crucial European relationships.     

Can a Reliable Framework for Sovereign-Backed Securities Be Established?

The European Commission has proposed the introduction of sovereign-backed securities (SBSs) as a class of safe assets for the euro area. SBSs are generated by an issuing agency that would purchase a representative portfolio of national sovereign bonds from the euro area. Purchases are financed by issuing (at least) two types of structured bonds: a risk-free senior SBS tranche and a risky junior SBS tranche. Overall, we recognise that the SBS concept has the potential to improve financial stability and financial integration in the euro area. However, we highlight several potentially severe technical and political problems. Most important for the SBS concept to function properly are the de-privileging of national sovereign bonds in bank regulation, rules to ensure conditionality in times of crisis and measures to prevent disincentives for national public finances. If such conditions remain elusive, we advise against the introduction of SBSs.     

The path to European Monetary Union

The planned broadening of the common internal market into an economic and monetary union as proposed in the Delors Plan means a significant qualitative leap in the process of European integration, which should ultimately lead to political union in Europe. Is this objective realistic? In what ways could it be achieved?     

Das Securities Market Programme — viele Vorteile für den Euroraum

The Eurosystem’s Securities Market Programme (SMP,) the purchase of government bonds of euro area countries strongly affected by the crisis, started in 2010 and ended in 2012. The SMP benefited all parties concerned – the Eurosystem, all euro area countries and the crisis countries. The positive experience with the SMP can be replicated in the private sector with the creation of an exchangetraded fund (ETF), a Smart Beta ETF - SMP Fund. Like the SMP, the SMP Fund would buy government bonds, according to the ECB capital key. As an ETF, the SMP Fund would have low costs. Profits above the German Bund benchmark would be shared: 80% to investors, 10% to the SMP Fund and 10% to advisers who recommend the purchase. The related risks would be reduced by the diversification of the SMP Fund, the financing mechanisms of the euro area, especially the European Stability Mechanism (ESM), the Outright Monetary Transactions (OMT) and the banking union. The SMP Fund could support the euro area fiscal capacity and the EU capital markets union. Past and future SMP profits create a fiscal capacity for the euro area with an initial amount of 50 billion Euro.     

The Political Economy of Brexit: Why Making It Easier to Leave the Club Could Improve the EU

The UK exit from the EU represents a qualitative change in the nature of EU membership. On the one hand, it conveyed the lesson that for the Union to be sustainable, membership needs to entail constant caretaking as far as individual members’ contributions to the common good are concerned, with both rights and obligations. Countries with preferences that are too divergent for the Union to function properly should then not be discouraged to invoke Article 50 and to opt instead for membership in the EEA or for a free trade agreement. The Union has to deliver to be sustainable, but it cannot do so if there is a constant hold up of decisions that are in the common interest. On the other hand, with the eurozone having established itself as the de facto core of European (political) integration, the UK’s preference for a stand-alone (and incomplete) economic union became untenable, because the need to make the monetary union work calls for further integration and institution-building in the economic union sphere.     

Why price‐level dispersion went up in Europe after the financial crisis

Persistent price differences across euro area countries are an indication of incomplete economic integration. We analyse long‐ and short‐run developments of price‐level dispersion in the euro area and compare the results with price dispersion across US cities. We find that monetary and economic integration in Europe has been successful in establishing a major downward trend in price‐level differences across countries since 1960. After the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, diverging economic conditions across euro area countries led to higher income dispersion, which contributed to a widening of price‐level differences again.     

Policy Rules in the Economic and Monetary Union

This paper studies whether a monetary union can be managed solely by a rule-based approach. The Five Presidents’ Report of the European Union rejects this idea. It suggests a centralisation of powers. We analyse the philosophy of policy rules from the vantage point of the German economic school of thought. There is evidence that a monetary union consisting of sovereign states is well organised by rules, together with the principle of subsidiarity. The root cause of the euro crisis is rather the weak enforcement of rules, compounded by structural problems. Therefore, we suggest a genuine rule-based paradigm for a stable future of the Economic and Monetary Union.     

Who Can Adjust to the Euro?

This study estimates potential exchange rate variation among 26 European countries during 1992–1998, as a proxy for the potential magnitude of adjustment they face to euro‐block membership, using the instrumental variable (IV) method, applying least squares cross‐section regression analysis based on optimal currency area theory. A currency union among Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands and Slovenia is found to entail a relatively light burden of adjustment for its members. The current membership of other countries in the euro‐block is potentially very demanding on their societies in the long term. This study also compares currency boards and independent central banks as alternative monetary frameworks for disinflation policies. Based on a pooled time‐series, cross‐section dataset of the same countries and years currency boards are found to be more effective in reducing inflation in all countries except Belgium. Balancing EMU's credibility gains against its adjustment costs, Finland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain seem like unstable members of the euro‐block. For all new EU member states except the Czech Republic, Malta, Slovenia and Slovakia the advice is to stay out of the euro‐block until their economies are liberalised and flexible enough to withstand major adjustments, and their societal interest groups supportive enough of these adjustments.     

Europa am Scheideweg — ein Vorschlag zur politischen Weiterentwicklung

The European Union is approaching a point where it has to decide between two options: deepening political integration or reducing it. Economists tend to be sceptical. Many would prefer to reduce the scale of integration while returning more competences to member states. The debate, though, lacks a plausible vision for the path forward. Every stable currency union needs some kind of transfer mechanism. Once this notion is accepted, the installation of a “real” European Parliament with the power to raise taxes, particularly on capital income, should be considered.     

The reality of integration within the european union

The European Single Market program has put in place legislation that provides the free circulation of goods, capital, and people. Further, the recent implementation of monetary union provides a single currency and a common monetary policy in 11 out of the 15 Member States. Yet significant practical barriers to European integration remain. Legislation concerning taxation and company law is still primarily nationally based. More fundamentally from a business perspective, the European environment continues to be characterized by divergent industry structures and national cultures. Although there is considerable momentum for political and economic integration at present, this deep-seated national diversity remains strong and can hinder businesses from adopting an integrated approach toward the European Union. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

What can sector accounts tell about the financial crisis?

The current sovereign debt crisis is widely believed to have been caused by insufficient budget discipline. However, the financial sector accounts reveal that public as well as private borrowing in the euro area was dwarfed by the synchronised explosion of assets and liabilities of financial corporations. The paper suggests that the current concentration on a speedy cutback of public debt is premature at best. Policy should pay more attention to the main causes of the crisis: the excesses of the financial sector and the flaws in the design of the heterogeneous currency union.     

Does a weak Euro signify poor competitiveness of the Euro zone?

The pronounced decline in the euro’s exchange rate since the currency’s launch at the start of 1999, especially against the US dollar, has rekindled the discussion surrounding the competitiveness of the euro zone. This marks quite a shift of focus within just a short period. When the new monetary union came into being, the emphasis was on the increased significance of the corresponding economic zone, given its economic muscle and its prominent position on world markets. This was taken to indicate that the EMU economies were highly competitive. On the other hand, the drop in the euro’s value since its launch is said by many to reflect a poor competitive position. This article will examine some possible explanations for the depreciation of the euro against the dollar, focussing on the competitiveness of the euro zone, particularly relative to the USA, by applying selected indicators.     

Financial integration and currency risk premium in CEECs: Evidence from the ICAPM

This paper aims to study the Central and Eastern European Countries' (CEECs) dynamics of financial integration in the euro area with the prospect of their integration into the European Monetary Union. Our empirical analysis is based, successively, on a MGARCH model with time-varying correlations, a state-space model and a Markov-switching model. The results show that financial integration (i) is not perfect but is increasing and (ii) is linked to currency stability. The growing financial integration in 2007–2009 seems to be rather the result of the shock propagated by the global crisis.