Social norms and female labor force participation in urban China

This study investigates the impact of social norms on the labor supply decision of married women in urban China. Our estimation results indicate that men raised by non-working mothers are more likely to support traditional gender roles, are more averse to having working wives, and tend to be less productive or less willing to engage in housework than other men. Consequently, the labor force participation rate of married women with non-working mothers-in-law is 5–18 percentage points lower than that of married women with working mothers-in-law in urban China.     

Long run trends in unemployment and labor force participation in urban China

Unemployment rates in countries across the world are strongly correlated with GDP. China is an unusual outlier from the pattern, whose official government statistics show abnormally low, and suspiciously stable, unemployment rates relative to its GDP. This paper reports estimates of China’s unemployment rate for its local urban Hukou population using a more reliable, nationally representative dataset for that population than in prior work, and which spans a longer period of history than in the past literature. The unemployment rates we calculate differ dramatically from those supplied in official data and are much more consistent with what is known about key historical developments in China’s labor market. The rate averaged 3.7% in 1988–1995, when the labor market was highly regulated and dominated by state-owned enterprises, but rose sharply during the period of mass layoff from 1995 to 2002, reaching an average of 9.5% in the subperiod from 2002 to 2009. The rates were even higher when demographic composition is held fixed. We can also calculate labor force participation rates, which are not available in official statistics at all. We find that they declined throughout the whole period, particularly in 1995–2002 when the unemployment rate increased most significantly. We also find that the impacts of these changes fell most heavily on the unskilled (women, those with less education, and younger individuals). Finally, estimates of unemployment and labor force participation rates are also provided for all urban residents, including migrants without local urban Hukou, and show the same patterns of change over time.     

Optimal incentives for labor force participation

Optimal taxation is analyzed under a Rawlsian criterion in an economy where the only decision of the agents is to participate, or not, to the labor force. The model allows for heterogeneity both in the agent's productivities and aversions to work. At a first-best optimal schedule, the marginal agent who decides to work pockets all of her productivity, while being just compensated for her work aversion. When the planner does not observe work aversion, financial compensation for work is lower than productivity. Theory puts little restrictions on the shape of the optimal tax schedules. The usual first-order conditions involving the elasticities of participation only apply for sufficiently regular economies. We qualitatively show how the optimal incentive schemes depend on the underlying structure of the preferences: 100% marginal tax rates or subsidies to work are related to specific features of the economies.     

Unemployment and labor force participation in the United States

This paper uses historical data from the United States to investigate the relationship between unemployment and labor force participation. Cointegration analysis supports a long-run relationship between these two variables, which leads us to question the empirical relevance of the unemployment invariance hypothesis for the United States.     

Impact of remittances on male and female labor force participation patterns in Africa: Quasi‐experimental evidence from Ghana

In this paper, we examine how remittances, an outcome of labor mobility, affect labor market activities in Ghana using detailed household and individual‐level data. This is important, considering the extensive literature that has documented the remittance–poverty reduction nexus. First, we find a strong negative association between household remittance‐receiving status and individual labor supply decisions using instrumental variable estimation techniques. Second, we find the depressing effect of remittances on labor supply decisions to be much stronger in rural areas. Rural women who reside in remittance‐receiving households are less likely to be in the labor force compared with those who do not reside in such households. Remittances have very little impact on labor supply decisions in urban areas. Our findings support that remittances can exacerbate long‐term poverty reduction in rural areas through lower labor force participation, and as such rural‐based and gender‐based interventions may be needed to help redirect remittance income.     

The impact of stricter criteria for disability insurance on labor force participation

This paper studies the effect of a large-scale policy change in the Austrian disability insurance program, which tightened eligibility criteria for men above a certain age. Using administrative data on the universe of Austrian private-sector employees, the results of difference-in-difference regressions suggest a substantial and statistically significant decline in disability enrollment of 6 to 7.4 percentage points and an increase in employment of 1.6 to 3.4 percentage points. The policy change had important spillover effects into the unemployment and sickness insurance program. Specifically, the share of individuals receiving unemployment benefits increased by 3.5 to 3.9 percentage points, and the share receiving sickness insurance benefits, by roughly 0.7 percentage points.     

Smooth transition trends and labor force participation rates in the United States

This paper employs smooth transition trend models to investigate the long-run time series behavior of quarterly US labor force participation rates. In particular, we examine whether long-run growth in labor force participation rates can be modeled by smooth transitions between states rather than as abrupt mean level changes or as a stochastic trend. Smooth transitions permit for non-instantaneous adjustment of individual workers to changes associated with economic events or general labor market conditions. We employ unit root testing procedures with alternatives characterized by stationary fluctuations around one or two smooth transitions in linear trend. We examine labor force participation rates by gender- and age-specific groups. The results indicate that all female and most male participation series are better characterized as stationary processes that undergo transitional deterministics.     

Fertility, female labor force participation, and the demographic dividend

We estimate the effect of fertility on female labor force participation in a panel of countries using abortion legislation as an instrument for fertility. We find that removing legal restrictions on abortion significantly reduces fertility and estimate that, on average, a birth reduces a woman’s labor supply by almost 2 years during her reproductive life. Our results imply that behavioral change, in the form of increased female labor supply, contributes significantly to economic growth during the demographic transition when fertility declines.      

The evolution of female labour force participation in urban China

Starting from the late 1980s, despite rapid economic growth, female labour force participation in urban China has shown a general declining trend. Using repeated cross‐sections from the Chinese Household Income Project Series (CHIP), this paper attempts to systematically relate the decrease in the labour force participation of married women to the socio‐economic changes happening in urban China during the same period of time. Adopting both linear and nonlinear decomposition techniques, the results indicate that the changes in married women's labour force participation during the periods 1995–2002 and 2007–2013 can be explained by the concurrent changes in the distribution of socio‐economic variables, while the changes during the periods 1988–1995 and 2002–2007 are mostly driven by the leftward shift of married women's participation function.     

Narrowing the gender digital divide in Pakistan: Mobile phone ownership and female labor force participation

The unprecedented growth in access to mobile phones and smartphones has opened up new possibilities in the way people live and work. However, women in developing countries are unable to take advantage of this growth due to certain factors and socio-cultural norms that give rise to the gender digital divide. In this study, using the nationally representative Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement Survey (2019–2020), we investigate the gender and rural–urban (female) digital divide in a country with one of the most considerable digital divides. Furthermore, we employ an instrumental variable approach to study the effect of mobile or smartphone ownership on female labor force participation. The results indicate that institutional and sociocultural norms explain most of the ownership gap of mobile or smartphones between men and women. The instrumental variable approach demonstrates that mobile or smartphone ownership increases the participation of women in the labor force. We also find that the differences between observable characteristics, especially literacy and education, explain the rural–urban digital divide among females. Considering the importance of mobile or smartphone ownership in facilitating women's labor supply decisions, providing women with digital tools and upskilling them has wider implications for their economic well-being.     

The marginal cost of public funds: Hours of work versus labor force participation

This paper extends the theory and measurement of the marginal cost of public funds (MCF) to account for labor force participation responses. Our work is motivated by the emerging consensus in the empirical literature that extensive (participation) responses are more important than intensive (hours of work) responses. In the modelling of extensive responses, we argue that it is crucial to account for the presence of non-convexities created by fixed work costs. In a non-convex framework, tax and transfer reforms give rise to discrete participation responses generating first-order effects on government revenue. These revenue effects make the marginal cost of funds higher and we show numerically that the implications for MCF tend to be substantial.     

Services liberalization and global value chain participation: New evidence for heterogeneous effects by income level and provisions

Participation in global value chains (GVCs) is a key element in the industrialization strategies of many developing nations. This paper investigates the role of services liberalization in promoting participation in GVCs. Using the gravity framework, I examine the impact of services trade agreements on gross trade and GVC trade (backward and forward participation) in goods. I find that services trade agreements promote both, but especially GVC trade, although the effects are heterogeneous: the impact is bigger for developing nation exporters. Moreover, services agreements that allow the export of services without local presence (nonestablishment rights) are particularly important in fostering GVC participation.     

The effect of fertility on labour force participation: The Spanish evidence

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of fertility on the decision of labour force participation of married females in Spain, allowing for the existence of unobserved characteristics that affect both fertility and participation. We use a pooling of five waves of the European Household Panel for Spain (1994–1998). Results indicate that not taking into account the unobserved characteristics that affect both variables imposes on average a strong downward bias on the true effect of fertility on participation. This bias is especially strong for highly educated females. We are grateful to Raquel Carrasco and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Financial support from Gobierno Vasco (PI-1999-160)), Ministry of Education and Science (BE2000-1394), Instituto de la Mujer and Universidad del País Vasco (UPV 00035.321-13511/2001) is gratefully acknowledged.     

Disagreement in inflation expectations: empirical evidence for Colombia

The literature on expectation disagreements in emerging economies is scarce. This paper examines the disagreements in inflation expectations for the Colombian economy during the 2010–2017 period. We combine empirical tests with an analysis of a monthly survey of expectations of financial analysts in Colombia to obtain valuable evidence to formulate guidelines on the expectations modelling in developing economies. The findings indicate that disagreements present inertia and that inflation volatility increases disagreements. However, the central bank’s stance, as established through a press release, can reduce disagreement. Moreover, if central bank communication is clear and there is a credible inflation target, there tend to be fewer disagreements.     

The association of pain with labor force participation,absenteeism, and presenteeism in Spain

Abstract

Objectives:

The aims of this paper are to generate estimates of the association between the severity and frequency of pain in Spain and (i) labor force participation and workforce status and (ii) patterns of absenteeism and presenteeism for the employed workforce.

Methods:

Data are from the internet-based 2010 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS). This survey covers both those who report experiencing pain in the last month as well as the no-pain population. An estimated 17.25% of adults in Spain report experiencing pain in the past month. A series of regression models are developed with the no-pain group as the reference category. The impact of pain, categorized by severity and frequency, is assessed within a labor supply framework for (i) labor force participation and (ii) absenteeism and presenteeism. Both binomial and multinomial logistic models are estimated.

Results:

The results demonstrate that severe and moderate pain has a significant, substantive, and negative association with labor force participation and, together with the experience of mild pain, a substantive impact on absenteeism and presenteeism within the employed workforce. Compared to no-pain controls, the strongest association is seen in the case of severe pain, notably severe daily pain and labor force participation (odds ratio 0.363; 95% CI: 0.206–0.637). The association of severe pain with labor force participation is also significant (odds ratio 0.356; 95% CI: 0.217–0.585). There is a clear gradient in the association of pain severity and frequency with labor force participation. The impact of pain is far greater than the potential impact of other health status measures (e.g., chronic comorbidities and BMI). Labor force participation is also adversely associated with pain experience. Persons reporting severe daily pain are far more likely not to be in the labor force (relative probabilities 0.339 vs 0.611). The experience of pain, notably severe and frequent pain, also outstrips the impact of other health status factors in absenteeism and presenteeism. In the former case, the odds ratio associated with severe daily pain is 16.216 (95% CI: 5.127–51.283), which contrasts to the odds ratio for the Charlson comorbidity index of 1.460 (95%CI: 1.279–1.666). Similar results hold for presenteeism. The contribution of moderate and mild pain to absenteeism and presenteeism is more marked than for labor force participation.

Conclusions:

The experience of pain, in particular severe daily pain, has a substantial negative impact both on labor force participation in Spain as well as reported absenteeism and presenteeism. As a measure of health status, it clearly has an impact that outstrips other health status measures. Whether or not pain is considered as a disease in its own right, the experience of chronic pain, as defined here, presents policy-makers with a major challenge. Programs to relieve the burden of pain in the community clearly have the potential for substantial benefits from societal, individual, and employer perspectives.     

Sample attrition and labor force dynamics: Evidence from the Spanish labor force survey

In this paper we examine a number of issues that arise in investigating labor force dynamics using the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). These issues are by no means specific to the Spanish case and apply to most European-style labor force surveys. Our main conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, survey nonresponse cannot be neglected. Second, the EPA tends to underestimate employment and participation of high-educated young people, and to overestimate those of the low-educated elderly. Finally, we find little evidence that attrition causes important selection biases in estimating quarterly transition probabilities.