Macroeconomic Policy, Exchange Rate Regimes and Economic Growth

China has been keeping high economic growth rate since it carried out managed floating exchange rate regimes in 1994, while now begins to face retrenchment pressure brought by the depression of internal and external economy. The establishment of RMB exchange rate regime should take account of the validity of macroeconomic policy, macroeconomic growth and the regional internationalization of RMB.     

The Exchange Rate Policy of the Euro: A Matter of Size?

This paper analyzes how country size affects exchange rate policy and volatility. A hump shaped relation between exchange rate variability and the size of countries is generated in the theoretical model: exchange rate variability increases with country size for small countries but then decreases for large countries. The paper finds that this theoretical prediction holds well for bilateral exchange rates of the OECD countries in the period between 1980 and 1995 as well as for a subsample of European exchange rates with respect to the dollar. The results suggest that the dollar/euro volability may be lower than the present dollar/DM volatility.J. Japan. Int. Econ., Dec. 1998,12(4), pp. 455–482. CERAS-ENPC, Graduate Institute of International Studies, and CEPR, 28 rue des Saints Pères, Paris 75007, France.Copyright 1998 Academic Press.Journal of Economic LiteratureClassification Numbers F33, F41, F42.     

Does Chinese Environmental Policy Affect Income Inequality? Evidence from the Central Environmental Protection Inspection

This paper investigates the effect of environmental policy on income inequality. It focuses on the central environmental protection inspection led by the central government in China. Using a difference-in-differences approach, it finds evidence that environmental regulation decreased the per capita income and enlarged the gap between urban and rural income while showing an insignificant effect on employment. Although the policy can reduce pollution levels and bring environmental benefits in aggregate, the findings of this study suggest that the regulations appear to have reduced the proportion of manufacturing industry and hindered general innovation and investment from entrepreneurs, which resulted in greater inequality. Rural residents suffered more from environmental regulation due to relatively high migration costs and their disadvantaged human resources on the aspects of health, education level, and skills. The local government's execution incentive can also play a key role in the effectiveness of environmental policy. Regions with lower GDP growth targets and younger government leaders were affected significantly with regard to the income growth of local residents and the urban–rural income gap.     

Interest Rate Pass-through in a Dual-track System： Evidence from China

Using the Phillips-Loretan approach, this paper verifies the degree and speed of pass- through and rigidity of different interest rates in China, as well as the response of private loan interest rates to other interest rates during 2002-2012. The results indicate that the long-term pass-through from the interbank offered rates and deposit and loan interest rates to the treasury bond rate is incomplete, but that the long-term pass-through to private loan interest rates is overshooting. The long-term pass-through from the deposit and loan interest rates to the overnight interbank offered rate is incomplete, while that to the interbank offered rates of other maturities is complete. The short-term passthrough and adjustment speed of interest rates exhibit asymmetry. Therefore, before considering a full liberalization of interest rates, it is important to further enhance the competition of the financial system and the function of different interest rate systems, such as the interhank market and bond market.     

Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment： Evidence from Chinese Micro Data

This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity‐oriented and price‐based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset–liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset–liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influence from quantity‐oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price‐based monetary policy. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy‐making based on the monetary demand of microeconomic entities.     

Does Corruption Affect suicide? Econometric Evidence from OECD Countries

The question to what extent corruption influences suicide still remains unanswered. This paper examines the effect of corruption on suicide using a panel data approach for 24 OECD countries over the period 1995?C2004. Our results show that suicide rates are lower in countries with lower levels of corruption. We also find evidence that this effect is approximately three times larger for males than for females. It follows from these findings that corruption has a detrimental effect on societal well-being and its effect differs based on the social position of genders.     

Does Aid Unpredictability Weaken Governance? Evidence from Developing Countries

This paper examines the effects of aid on governance from a different perspective by asserting that aid unpredictability can potentially increase corruption in recipient countries by providing incentives to risk‐averse and corrupt political leaders to engage in rent‐seeking activities. Analyses of data from 80 developing countries over the period 1984–2004 offer evidence that higher aid unpredictability is associated with more corruption as measured by a synthetic index. We also find further evidence that this latter impact is more severe in countries with weak initial institutional conditions. These findings are a supplementary advocacy for the need for better management and better predictability of aid flow in developing countries.     

What Does the `Show Case' Show? Evidence of and Lessons from Adjustment in Uganda

Uganda is often seen as an African show case for the beneficial effects of structural adjustment. High growth rates have been combined with a high degree of “ownership” of the reforms. At the same time, critics have pointed to continued aid dependence, and limited growth of the important agricultural export sector. The contribution of this paper to this debate is three-fold. First, “ownership” has not always been exemplary and is still fragile in some respects. Second, although aid has indeed been important for bringing about high growth, aid dependence has diminished over time. Third, there have been real supply responses from the agricultural export sector.     

Is there a link between homeownership and unemployment? Evidence from German regional data

Using German regional data for 1998, 2002 and 2006, this study examines the Oswald hypothesis, the conjecture that high levels of homeownership are linked to inferior outcomes in the labor market. Applying a set of control variables, three different econometric models are specified and estimated: a cross-sectional model, a pooled data model, and a model taking into account unobserved regional heterogeneity. Once unobserved regional effects are accounted for, the findings are consistent with Oswald’s hypothesis. The economic significance of the relationship is at best marginal, however.     

Earthquakes and Economic Outcomes: Does Central Bank Independence Matter?

Open Economies Review - This study explores whether the degree of central bank independence influences the economic performance in the period immediately following an earthquake. Earthquakes create...     

The Cost of Living and Terror: Does Consumer Price Volatility Fuel Terrorism?

Do fluctuations of consumer prices prompt terrorist activity? A latent assumption among conflict scholars is that price volatilities for basic consumer goods produce hardships for people that increase popular grievances, damage government legitimacy, and raise the chances for terrorism. In this study, I use a series of regression estimations to test volatility in consumer price indices for energy, housing, and foods as predictors of domestic and transnational terrorism in a cross section of countries. I produce several findings. First, food price fluctuations are significant predictors of multiple measures of terrorism, while energy and housing prices are not. Second, rapid food price increases, not decreases, promote terrorist attacks. Third, the relationship between food price volatility and terrorism is most consistently present in nondemocratic and “hybrid” political regimes and in medium human development countries rather than in democracies or in countries characterized by very high or very low economic development.     

Does Geographic Targeting of Nutrition Interventions Make Sense in Cities? Evidence from Abidjan and Accra

Although most developing country cities are characterized by pockets of substandard housing and inadequate service provision, it is not known to what degree low incomes and malnutrition are confined to specific neighborhoods. This analysis uses representative household surveys of Abidjan and Accra to quantify small-area clustering in service provision, demographic characteristics, consumption, and nutrition. Both cities showed significant clustering in housing conditions but not in nutrition, while income was clustered in Abidjan but less so in Accra. This suggests that neighborhood targeting of poverty-alleviation or nutrition interventions in these and similar cities could lead to undercoverage of the truly needy.     

China＇s Import-exchange Rate Linkage： Evidence from the China-bound Exports of Japan and Korea

This paper examines how the China-bound exports of Japan and Korea are related to exchange rates, motivated by the fact that processing trade makes up a large proportion of China＇s trade, and that Japan and Korea are the leading source countries for processing imports. Because processing imports are inputs for exports, the link between such imports and China＇s exchange rates are ambiguous. We estimate export functions that include China＇s RMB real effective exchauge rates （REER） along with bilateral real exchange rates （B RER） using Johausen ＇s cointegration method aud find that the RMB REER significantly affects Japanese and Korean exports to China, even more so than BRER in most cases examined. These two exchange rates appear in the export equations with opposite signs. Subsequently, we use the estimated model to illustrate the importance of accounting for a concurrent change in B RER when analyzing the effects of a hypothetical RMB revaluation on China＇s trade balances despite the apparently weak imports-B RER linkage.     

Does high M4 money growth trigger large increases in UK inflation? Evidence from a regime-switching model

March 2007 saw an increase of 3.1% in UK inflation and triggeredthe first explanatory letter from the Governor of the Bank ofEngland to the Chancellor of the Exchequer since the Bank ofEngland was granted operational independence in May 1997. Theletter gave rise to a lively debate on whether policymakersshould pay attention to the link between inflation and M4 moneygrowth. Using UK data since the introduction of inflation targetingin October 1992, we show that: (i) the relationship betweeninflation and M4 growth is not stable over time, and (ii) thetendency of M4 to exert inflationary pressures is conditionalon annual M4 growth exceeding 9.8%. Above this threshold, themoney effect on inflation is very small. The implication isthat the Monetary Policy Committee should not be particularlyworried for not paying close attention to M4 money movementswhen setting interest rates.     

Does Aid for Roads Attract Foreign or Domestic Firms? Evidence from Cambodia

Less developed countries have received substantial foreign aid for transport infrastructure, making its quantitative assessment important. To investigate the effect of aid for road infrastructure on the location of foreign and domestic firms, this study employs the first comprehensive census on all business establishments in Cambodia for 2011 and measures the geographical distribution of aid disbursements in roads. Estimating a negative binomial model, we find that aid disbursements in roads have little influence on the entry of foreign and domestic firms across communes. Compared with the aid effect, the location of firms is more strongly influenced by other determinants such as population size, electricity access, and labor supply.     

Does Membership Homogeneity Matter for Group-based Financial Services? Evidence from the Gambia

This paper examines the effect of membership composition on the components of group design to provide financial services, and on the performance of these groups. Regression results based on data from RoSCAs in the Gambia show that gender homogeneity is less likely to affect components of group design than is homogeneity in income generating capacity of members. Membership homogeniety does not directly affect the repayment performance of the members but only indirectly through the components of the group design. — Cet article examine l’incidence de la composition sur les composantes et la performance des groupes constitués en vue de la fourniture de services financiers. Selon les résultats d’une analyse de régression basée sur les données de “RoSCA” en Gambie, il apparaît que l’homogénéité du genre influe moins sur les composantes de la conception des groupes que l’homogénéité de la capacité des groupes à générer des revenus. En ce qui concerne la performance en matière de remboursement, l’incidence de l’homogénéité de la composition n’est pas directe mais indirecte au travers des composantes de la conception des groupes.     

Short Term External Debt and Economic Growth—Granger Causality: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this paper the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and short-term external debt was investigated for 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1970–2003. The empirical results suggest the existence of bidirectional causality relationships between the two variables for several countries, which means that the performance of both variables is interrelated. The main finding is that in the short- and long- runs Granger causality from economic growth to short-term external debt is present in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries. With the evidence suggesting, in the majority of estimated cases, economic growth Granger caused short-term external debt, short-term policy decisions related to capacity absorption enhancement should be encouraged in Latin America and the Caribbean. Further work in this regard is encouraged in the form of panel studies or specific individual case studies inclusive of foreign trade linkage parameters to capture the potential effects of omitted variables.

How Does FDI Affect Private Firms' Financing Constraints?——Firm-Level Evidence from China

本文首先从理论上阐述了外商直接投资缓解民营企业融资约束的微观机制,并运用企业层面的统计数据佐证了上述机制的存在性,接下来基于面板数据就外商直接投资对民营企业的融资效应进行计量检验.实证研究发现:在产品市场,外商直接投资通过产业集聚效应缓解了民营企业的融资约束,其融资效应由合资企业、处于产业集聚区的非合资企业和未处于产业集聚区的非合资企业依次递减;而在信贷市场上,FDI对不同类型民营企业却起到截然相反的融资效应,对于合资民营企业起到明显的融资缓解效应,却加剧了非合资企业原本的融资困境.     

Does foreign direct investment cause long run economic growth? Evidence from the Latin American and the Caribbean countries

The empirical evidence about the temporal precedence between foreign direct investment (FDI) and economic growth in open developing economies is mixed. In this research effort, we explored the FDI-growth nexus for 16 developing countries of Latin American and the Caribbean countries during the last three decades, a period in which many of these countries introduced various economic and financial reforms. As a departure from many previous studies, the current analysis uses the Granger noncausality test procedure recently developed by Toda and Yamamoto (J Econ 66:225–250, 1995), and Dolado and Lutkepohl (Econ Rev 15:369–386, 1996)–TYDL. Our results suggest that the null hypothesis that ‘FDI does not Granger cause economic growth’ is rejected for all countries except Dominican Republic, Trinidad and Tobago, and Jamaica. There is also evidence of unidirectional causality from growth to FDI for all countries except Bolivia, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Guatemala, and Jamaica. We found bidirectional causality for Argentina, Brazil, Mexico, Peru and Venezuela.