The New Deal and Modern Memory

The “Great Recession,” which began at year‐end 2007, was precipitated by plunging real estate values, followed by borrower defaults and financial crisis for the public and private institutions that supplied loanable funds to the mortgage market. With economic growth not yet returned to trend, three years on more than 9% of the American labor force remains unemployed. Current macroeconomic events, perhaps inevitably, have been compared to those of the Great Depression of 1929–1933, both in terms of severity and of the efficacy of the public policies adopted ostensibly to restore prosperity. In this article, I review the literature on the New Deal, paying particular attention to modern scholarship emphasizing the role of presidential politics and antibusiness political rhetoric in deepening and prolonging the Great Depression. The parallels between then and now suggest that the two economic contractions had similar causes and elicited equally counterproductive policy responses.     

Lessons from the great recession for developing countries

Many lessons can be taken from the Great Recession and the Euro crisis with respect to both pre‐crisis and post‐crisis policies. Appropriate measures can reduce the risk of crisis in individual countries, the severity of crises, and the magnitude of needed adjustments. These include an appropriate exchange rate policy (flexibility is highly desirable), ensuring the soundness of the financial system, not allowing expansion of credit at too high a rate, adopting structural fiscal budgeting policies, and avoiding dangerous sovereign debt build‐up. On the crisis resolution side, the lesson that stands out is the desirability of decisive and credible action to address the causes of the crisis. The issues that arise when the banking and financial system is weakened in the run‐up to crisis are extremely difficult, especially when sovereign debt is unsustainable. Therefore, while the important lesson is to avoid overly expansive credit build‐up during good times, in the event of a crisis, it is important that the health of the banks be restored as quickly as possible and that a viable supervision and resolution framework be put in place.     

金融危机救助方案及其效果评价——基于美国新金融危机与大萧条历史比较的视角

本文从财政政策、货币政策和金融机构的救助及金融制度的改革等角度对美国大萧条和新金融危机时期政府的救助方案进行了系统评述。在此基础上,本文对两次金融危机期间美国政府各种救助方案的效果进行了比较分析和简要评价。     

论金融控股公司演进路径:社会抉择与制度设计

金融控股公司作为现代金融业最重要的经营组织形式,在金融危机中表现出巨大抗风险能力。后金融危机时代,金融业并没有出现上世纪大萧条的分业经营,许多业务单一的金融机构开始了新一轮大规模的兼并与重组,一大批新金融航母开始出现。实际上,金融业经营模式作为一种金融制度安排,它与宏观经济、技术进步等经济环境密切相关,是在一定经济条件下社会抉择的结果。本文通过金融控股公司演进路径的梳理,重新认识到政府干预与自由市场之间选择的重要性,可以对我国金融业改革提供一个新的思路。     

20世纪90年代日本商业银行破产原因分析及启示

20世纪90年代日本许多金融机构和银行相继破产,这其中的主要原因既有汇率因素和货币政策因素,也有制度性因素和金融管理方面的因素等。当今中国经济发展中有一些迹象与泡沫经济破灭前后的日本相似:本币升值,国际热钱不断流入,股票价格暴涨暴跌等。我国要汲取日本的教训,防止金融机构和银行出现系统性危机。     

银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验及启示——以成都市为例

本文立足银行信贷视角,结合全球金融危机以及成都市西部金融中心建设背景,分析成都市中小企业面临的金融环境;然后总结成都市银行业在中小企业融资服务领域的经验;最后,本文从政策性银行作用的发挥、信贷风险控制、金融机构市场定位、银行业发展战略等四方面提出了启示。     

Déjà Vu: The Effect of Executives and Directors with Prior Banking Crisis Experience on Bank Outcomes around the Global Financial Crisis

We investigate the effect of executives and directors with prior banking crisis experience on bank outcomes around the global financial crisis (GFC). Executives and directors with previous experience leading banks through a bank crisis may have been uniquely able to understand the risks, recognize the warnings signs early, and thus respond more effectively to the GFC. Controlling for other executive, director, and bank‐level characteristics, we examine whether bank performance, risk taking, and accounting quality in the period immediately before and during the GFC are affected by having executives or directors who previously served as bank executives or directors during the 1980s/1990s banking crisis (80s/90s crisis). Overall, we find that banks led by these crisis‐experienced executives and directors exhibit stronger performance, lower risk taking, and higher accounting quality in the period around the GFC. These effects are strongest among bank leaders for whom the 80s/90s crisis was most salient. Results are robust to propensity‐matched samples and other analyses performed to rule out alternative explanations. Our results suggest these individuals were able to learn from prior crisis experience.     

国际金融危机-资本主义末日抑或重塑

自大萧条以来本场国际金融危机是我们这年代经历的最大经济危机。这场危机导致大型金融机构倒闭,这些机构倒闭导致了世界经济系统的瘫塌。为了应对危机,很多国家注入数亿计的资金来刺激经济,而且通过控制私有公司来改造它们,我们实现了所谓"国有化"。政府提出的干预主义目的是通过社会主义方针政策调控处理危机。自2008年来工业化及新兴国家同意建立G20作为应对金融危机的主要策略。     

The Role of Credit in the 2007–09 Great Recession

This paper examines the financial crisis of 2007/9 and the downturn in the U.S. We argue that effective demand over the 2001?C2006 expansion was maintained by credit. The role of credit in a Vector Error Correction Model and Granger-causality between aggregate spending, credit, disposable income, and profits are examined. We show that credit itself is determined by factors outside the circular flow of income. The results raise new hypotheses about the crucial relationships in macroeconomics that sustain aggregate spending. We then compute the generalized impulse responses in the VECM to demonstrate the severity of the downturn and show that legislative changes that dismantled the restrictions placed on the financial sector and the consequent structural changes after 1980 enabled the growth of new debt instruments and credit. The overexpansion of credit when profits and house prices were declining in 2005/06 and informational asymmetries on the quality of credit and its sudden withdrawal in 2007 paralyzed the economy and led to the Great Recession.     

金融危机前后中国银行业系统性风险实证研究

文章基于网络模型量化分析了金融危机前后我国银行业系统性风险的特征。利用2006-2011年银行间市场中各类型金融机构拆出与拆入资金数据,建立了金融机构间关联网络模型。在此基础上,通过模拟测试可揭示冲击在各类型金融机构间传染过程,同时可以分析各类型金融机构间风险暴露特征。实证研究表明:金融危机前后任一类型金融机构违约不足以引发银行业系统性风险;国有商业银行和其他商业银行在银行间市场中处于核心位置。     

International banking and transmission of the 1931 financial crisis

In May to July 1931, a series of financial panics shook central Europe before spreading to the rest of the world. This article explores the role of cross‐border banking linkages in propagating the central European crisis to Britain and the US. Using archival bank‐level data, the article documents US and British banks’ exposure to central European frozen credits in 1931. Central European lending was mostly done by large and diversified commercial banks in the US and by small and geographically specialized merchant banks/acceptance houses in Britain. Differences in the organization of international bank lending explain why the central European crisis disturbed few US banks but endangered many British financial institutions.     

Migrant Remittances Provide Resilience Against Disasters in Africa

How responsive are migrant remittances to various disasters, both natural and human-made? Would remittances be affected by systemic financial crises, such as the 2008–09 financial crisis, or more recent crises affecting the Eurozone? Using panel data on 23 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries from 1980 to 2007, we find that remittances are slow to respond to natural disasters, unresponsive to outbreaks of conflict, and will slowly decline following a systemic financial crisis. This suggests that, given its stability, remittances are sources of resilience in SSA.     

银行规模、金融生态环境与小企业融资

时下主流观点强调解决小企业融资难题在于发挥“小银行优势”。然而基于此理论的政策导向与实践,并未有效疏通小企业融资瓶颈。本文以广州、中山、惠州和江门等广东省4个地市调研数据为样本,将金融生态环境要素纳入了不同规模的银行机构面向小企业融资的分析框架之中,探讨不同金融生态环境下,面向小企业融资的大小银行机构的行为差异,实证求解为小企业融资的主力金融机构格局。结果表明,一方面,小企业同大银行机构建立金融关系,更能优化自身的融资约束困境;另一方面,合意的金融生态环境,有助于大银行机构提高小企业的融资境遇。本文的政策含义在于,化解小企业融资难题的最有效金融结构,重在改善金融生态环境,并由此激发大银行机构充分发挥其功能。     

Financial and Political Institutional Problems as Instigators of Banking Crises

The question of why some countries suffer from crises, while others escape them, is challenging. Empirical evidence in the literature suggests that countries with stronger financial institutions are more able to withstand crises. This study empirically investigates whether the probability of crisis depends on the political institutional structure. More specifically, we question whether the failure to democratize polity successfully creates an environment for financial institutional weaknesses, which have the potential to lead to banking crises. It is found that the effectiveness of the prudent supervision of the financial sector in lowering the probability of banking crises is more pronounced in more democratized countries and when the political framework is more institutionalized.     

Flight‐to‐safety and the credit crunch: a new history of the banking crises in France during the Great Depression†

Despite France's importance in the interwar world economy, the scale of the French banking crises of 1930–1 and their consequences have never been fully assessed quantitatively. The lack of banking regulation severely limited the availability of balance sheet data. Using a new dataset of individual balance sheets from more than 300 banks, this article shows that the crises were much more severe than previously thought, although they did not affect the main commercial banks. By reconstructing financial flows, this study shows that the fall in bank credit was mostly driven by a flight‐to‐safety by deposits, from banks to savings institutions and the central bank. The decrease in bank deposits due to bank runs was offset by an increase in deposits with savings institutions, with the central bank, and in cash hoarding, whereas the decrease in bank credit was not offset by an increase in loans from non‐bank financial institutions. In line with the gold standard mentality, cash deposited with savings institutions and the central bank was used to decrease marketable public debt and increase gold reserves, rather than pursuing countercyclical policies. Despite massive capital inflows and rising aggregate money supply, France suffered from a severe, persistent credit crunch.     

美国存款保险机构银行危机管理的经验与借鉴

本文介绍了20世纪80年代以来美国联邦存款保险公司处置问题银行和储贷机构的经验,分析了当前我国银行业危机管理的现状,并在借鉴美国成功经验的基础上,提出了完善我国银行业危机管理的对策。     

房地产业对金融机构的系统性风险溢出效应研究——基于行业与企业综合视角的实证分析

房地产业与金融业具有强烈的共生性，当房地产业陷入困境时，是否会迅速扩散到与其关联的各类金融机构，蔓延并危及整个金融系统，出现房地产业对金融机构的"系统性风险溢出"?文章综合运用房地产行业指数与房地产企业数据，基于CoVaR模型和分位数回归方法，测算了我国房地产业对各类金融机构的系统性风险溢出强度，分析了其时变趋势和影响因素。实证结果表明，我国房地产业对金融机构存在较为显著的系统性风险溢出效应，在时间维度上存在周期性；房地产业对股份制与城商行的风险溢出强度最大，其次是保险机构和信托，最小的是国有银行；房地产企业的自身风险、规模和负债水平对风险溢出强度具有显著影响。据此，文章对金融监管部门、金融机构与房地产行业提出了相应的政策建议。     

How do leverage ratios affect bank share performance during financial crises: The Japanese experience of the late 1990s

This study investigates the relationship between leverage ratios and bank share performance for a sample of Japanese banks during the period of financial crisis in the late 1990s. We differentiate between two types of leverage ratios: book leverage and market leverage. We show that market leverage instead of book leverage observed before the crisis has statistically and economically significant predictive power for the cross-sectional variation in bank performance during the crisis, even after controlling for a variety of other indicators reflecting bank’s characteristics and financial conditions. We also find that banks with lower market leverage ratios were affected more adversely by the failure announcements of large financial institutions during the crisis. The results are robust across alternative model specifications, statistical methodologies, lengths of sample intervals, and measures of bank share performance during the crisis. Our results therefore have important implications for regulators in identifying distressed banks that are vulnerable to the deterioration in conditions of the financial system.     

我国商业银行操作风险管理策略

操作风险是金融机构最古老的风险之一,也是最具破坏力和最难预测的风险。操作风险管理在全球金融界兴起,受到广泛关注。自2005年以来,我国银行业大案要案频发,操作风险有失控趋势。在应对次贷危机的背景下,我国货币信贷快速增长,贷款激增为商业银行资产质量的恶化埋下隐忧,我国商业银行面临的操作风险日益突出。文章在界定操作风险定义和特点的基础上,分析了我国商业银行加强操作风险管理的必要性和迫切性,系统介绍了巴塞尔新资本协议和巴塞尔委员会提出的监管操作风险的原则,提出了现阶段我国商业银行操作风险管理的三大策略。     

Central Bank Credibility before and after the Crisis

A new measure of credibility is constructed as a function of the differential between observed inflation and some estimate of the inflation rate that the central bank targets. The target is assumed to be met flexibly. Credibility is calculated for a large group of both advanced and emerging countries from 1980 to 2014. Financial crises reduce central bank credibility and central banks with strong institutional feaures tend to do better when hit by a shock of the magnitude of the 2007-2008 financial crisis. The VIX, adopting an inflation target and central bank transparency, are the most reliable determinants of credibility. Similarly, real economic growth has a significant influence on central bank credibility even in inflation targeting economies.