Übernivellierung der Einnahmen aus der Grunderwerbsteuer im künftigen Finanzausgleich

Fiscal Equalisation in Germany provides substantial fiscal redistribution between federal and state and among state governments. However, there is also a degree of tax autonomy for the individual German states. Since 2007, states can adjust their local rate of the Real Estate Transfer Tax. However, if they keep the rate low, they may suffer revenue losses due to fiscal redistribution. The paper considers whether this effect will also be present in the new rules for fiscal equalization which will come in to effect in 2020.     

Steuermehreinnahmen er?ffnen budget?re Spielr?ume zum Abbau der kalten Progression

In May 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following four years based on key macroeconomic data supplied by the German Federal Government. The new official tax estimate forecasts additional revenues for central, state and local government. Tax revenues are expected to bring additional €24.9bn between 2012 and 2016. With the budgetary leeway, the fiscal drag, which has occurred since 2010, could be eliminated in 2013 and 2014. The Act to reduce fiscal drag would result in a revenue loss of €6bn a year.     

我国税收调节国民收入初次分配的作用探讨——以税种为切入点

税收具有筹集财政收入、调节收入分配的职能。在我国社会经济高速发展过程中,税收筹集财政收入的作用得到了充分发挥,但是存在＂重筹集资金,轻调节收入分配＂的问题。我国现行税收制度征收的18个税种中有16个税种都参与了国民收入初次分配,参与初次分配的税收收入不仅占总税收收入的比重较高,而且多为转嫁程度较高的税种,使得税负最终的承担者居民的收入增长速度慢于财政收入的增长速度,不能体现税收制度的公平性。参与初次分配的税种优化意味着国民收入初次分配过程的公平化程度,意味着国民收入向居民让利的程度。     

Der Reformationstag als gesetzlicher Feiertag und seine fiskalischen Effekte

In the German system of fiscal equalisation, Länder (states) with below-average tax revenue receive above average payments. The difference between the average and the own tax revenue per capita is compensated up to 63%. To prevent states from getting payments from other states by lowering their own tax rates, tax revenue with taxing autonomy is standardised. States can also influence their tax revenues by changing the number of holidays because each state decides on its own. In 2018, the Bremen, Hamburg, Lower Saxony and Schleswig Holstein introduced designated Reformation Day as a holiday (Berlin also plans to add a holiday). A state with numerous holidays will have lower tax revenues and higher payments in the fiscal equalisation system than the same state with no extra holidays. To consider each state’s real ability to pay the fiscal equalisation system, it is necessary to eliminate the effect of differing holidays. This paper shows the fiscal consequence of the new holiday and a way to neutralise this effect and calculates the impact to the states’ payments in the fiscal equalisation system.     

地区间的相对剥夺与地方财政收入空间非均衡的演变

本文利用1997－2012年的中国省际财政收入数据，采用不平等指标对地方财政收入的空间非均衡进行度量和分解；运用相对剥夺理论的基尼系数子群分解方法，对地方财政收入空间非均衡进行度量和分解；并采用财政收入流动性方法，对地方财政收入空间非均衡的动态演变进行分析。结果表明：地方财政收入空间非均衡总体呈现缩小趋势，子群间差异是地方财政收入空间非均衡的主要来源，其中东部对中部的相对剥夺对地方财政收入总体差异贡献最大；地方财政收入流动性总体呈现减弱趋势，地方财政收入变动有助于缩小地方财政收入空间非均衡。     

Unzureichende Ausschöpfung der Realsteuern — das Beispiel Rheinland-Pfalz

In Germany, state and local authorities repeatedly come into conflict with one another regarding the funding of municipal budgets. The sufficient fiscal endowment of local public authorities depends not only on a satisfactory provision of state grants but also requires an adequate exhaustion of existing sources of revenues at the local government level. Against this background, the paper analyses local tax policy in order to assess whether the budget finance potential is being sufficiently exploited. Taking Rhineland-Palatinate as a case study, the degree of tax exploitation (local business tax, local property tax) is empirically estimated for the time period 2009 to 2015.     

地方土地财政与国家财政体制关系

分析地方土地财政形成的经济、政治、社会驱动因素,选用分税制改革后样本区间为1995~2010年16年间的中央、地方财政与土地出让金及税费收入数据,定量分析得出:一是分税制财政体制致使地方财政总收入在全国财政收入中的比例与土地财政收入在地方财政总收入中的比例是此消彼长的关系;二是地方财政总收入对于土地财政存在较强的依赖性。在此基础上,提出治理与完善地方土地财政与国家财政体制关系的具体对策建议,为构建地方政府可持续的土地财税收益(经营)模式奠定理论基础。     

Steuerschätzung 2013 bis 2018: deutlich steigendes Steueraufkommen

According to the latest official tax estimate, tax revenue will continue to rise in the coming years under favourable economic conditions. The tax receipts will expand from €600 bn in 2012 to roughly €732 bn in 2018. The tax-to-GDP ratio is projected to increase to 23% by the end of the forecast period (2012: 22.5%). This results from the effect of the progressive structure of the income tax schedule on revenues. The tax revenue estimate shows that the effects of fiscal drag, which have been present since 2010, could be eliminated in the next few years.     

中国地方政府财政赤字成因分析

基于1996—2010年中国大陆省级政府的相关数据,利用面板模型,对地方政府财政赤字成因进行分析。结果显示,对于东中西部三个地区来讲,中央政府对地方政府的财力性转移支付、中央政府对地方政府的专项转移支付、地方政府预算内非税收入、地方政府预算外非税收入和地方政府各税种收入对地方政府财政赤字的影响程度和方向具有差异性。要缩减地方政府财政赤字规模,需完善财力性转移支付制度等相关财税制度。     

黑龙江省税收流失测算

税收流失不仅严重影响到国家财政收入的规模,而且在税收流失的过程中产生的一系列不良的经济效应,会逐渐渗透到经济发展的各方面。黑龙江省国有经济比重大,税收流失的内在机理、形式以及影响都有其自身的特点,其税收规模与经济增长呈正相关,税收流失规模低于全国水平,但其流失规模有增加的趋势。应规范政府职能,在一定时期内捋清税费关系,减轻纳税人的额外负担。抓住时机进行税制改革,使纳税人税收负担趋于合理。进一步完善征收管理法,加大对偷逃税款的惩罚力度,提高纳税人违法成本。     

中国税收可持续增长问题研究

本文通过总结1994-2010年中国税收收入增长的基本特征,从经济税源基础、财税体制制度、税收征管机制三个方面剖析了中国税收持续快速增长的基本原因;文章进而分析"十二五"时期中国税收可持续增长面临的主要挑战:经济税源增长趋缓、税制建设不完全适应经济社会发展、财政体制和管理制度改革相对滞后以及征收管理能力的瓶颈制约等;最后提出建议:实行有减有增、总体减负的结构性税制改革,推动经济持续增长和发展方式转变,以壮大税收可持续增长必须的税源基础;推进税费改革、统一规范政府预算、深化分税制体制改革、优化财政支出结构,以巩固税收可持续增长的财税体制;推进全社会依法治税、实施政府综合治税、提升税收征管能力,以强化税收可持续增长的征管机制等。     

中国财政政策动态效应的实证分析:1998~2004

本文对中国1998~2004年间实行的积极性财政政策的动态效应进行了实证研究。基于对数据性质的考察,我们选用了结构性VECM模型来研究。在结构性模型中,我们引入了长期约束和短期约束来识别宏观经济变量中的冲击向量,并利用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法,对冲击向量的动态效应进行实证研究。模型的实证结果表明,财政支出冲击对总产出具有正向效应而税收收入冲击则具有负向效应,且支出冲击的正效应略大于税收收入的负效应。该结论印证了凯恩斯主义关于财政政策的主要结论。同时实证结果对我国1998年以来的积极财政政策的效果给予了支持:增加财政支出的效应很大程度上被同期税收收入的增长所抵消,财政政策对产出的贡献并不像预期的那么显著。     

Steuerschätzung 2012 bis 2017: günstige Aufkommensperspektiven

In October 2012 the Working Party on Tax Revenue Forecasting released a tax revenue estimate for the current year and the following five years based on the macroeconomic benchmark figures contained in the German government’s autumn projection. Tax revenues will expand from €573.4 bn in 2011 to €706.6 bn in 2017. The tax ratio is projected to increase from 22.1% to 23.1%. The planned reduction of the fiscal drag in 2013 and 2014 has not been included. However, the reduction is compatible with the fiscal consolidation, because Germany is poised to achieve a budget that is close to balanced in structural terms this year.     

经济欠发达地区财政收入增长影响因素研究——基于山东菏泽的样本分析

生财、聚财、用财,其中生财是根本,聚财是关键。1994年分税制改革以来,我国财政实力得到了极大增强。但是地方财政困难问题日益突出,特别是在经济欠发达地区,地方财政困难就更加显著。本文以欠发达地区财政收入增长影响因素作为研究对象,采用理论分析与实证分析相结合的方法,选取样本地区山东省菏泽市1994-2009年的GDP以及三次产业增加值等数据,采用弹性分析、相关性分析及自向量回归模型分析等方法进行分析。通过对样本的分析,本文认为经济欠发达地区财政收入增长要遵循可持续增长的道路。提出要加强服务意识,培植适合本地发展的骨干财源以及深化财税体制改革等具体措施。     

提升地方政府治理能力的房产税税制改革研究——以黑龙江省为例

地方政府公共服务体系的构建,城乡间公共服务差距的缩小,是地方政府治理能力水平的重要指标之一。地方政府公共服务能力的水平,有赖于地方财政收入的有利支撑。目前我国地方税收体系不够完善,地方政府很难从中取得大比例的收入支撑,建立地方主体税种,继续推进房产税改革试点,适时扩大房产税试点,对于地方财政收入,提升地方政府治理能力起到一定的促进作用。以黑龙江省为例提出了房产税改革的公平原则、财政原则与效率原则三位一体的税收原则体系。     

Fiscal incentives and local tax competition: Evidence from China

This paper explores how fiscal incentives affect capital tax decisions by local governments in the Chinese context. We develop a model in which local governments, facing different fiscal incentives, compete for mobile capital over corporate taxes. The key prediction of the model, borne out in data from Chinese cities over the years 2004–13, is that an increase in the local corporate income tax-sharing ratio, proxying local fiscal incentives, makes city governments’ horizontal tax reactions stronger. Our results contribute to the fiscal federalism literature by providing evidence in support of the argument that fiscal incentives faced by local governments significantly shape their policy choices. Additionally, we provide explicit evidence on local tax competition within provinces in China, which has long been regarded as one of the driving forces of China's rapid economic growth.     

中国式分权、转移支付与居民收入不平等

本文首先采用基尼系数对我国城乡、城镇和农村居民收入不平等程度进行重新测度,然后以政府转移支付为门限变量建立面板门限回归模型,对财政收支分权与居民收入不平等之间关系进行实证检验,结果发现:一是财政收入分权与收入不平等显著负相关,财政支出分权与收入不平等显著正相关;二是财政收支分权对不同类型收入不平等的作用效果存在较大差异.其中,无论是财政收入分权抑或支出分权对收入不平等的政策效应大小依次是城镇居民＞农村居民＞总体居民;三是政府转移支付在不同区制对居民收入不平等的影响呈现显著地非线性特征.即从相对较低的第一区制跨入较高的第二区制时,转移支付对居民收入不平等的影响由负转变为正.本文以上研究结论不仅对于全面构建央地新型政府间财政关系,还可以为促进公平收入分配提供理论依据与决策参考.     

Steuerzerlegung, Wirtschafts- und Steuerkraft

The local breakdown of the German Länder shares of tax revenues is hardly considered as a political or legal problem. Its purpose is to correct the results of the technical procedures of tax collection in order to distribute the revenues among the Länder according to their economic strength. This objective is hardly achieved. On the contrary, the shortcomings of the breakdown considerably intensify the problems of fiscal equalisation among the Länder. The question has to be raised whether or not the breakdown of revenues according to their “true” local origin is still appropriate within a highly integrated economy.     

Grundsteuerreform in Deutschland: eine unendliche Geschichte?

For many years property tax in its current form has been exhibiting increasing problems. There are three reform models currently being discussed that differ in their respective tax bases using either property values or areas, or both. They create different individual tax burdens and amounts of tax revenue in each state compared to the current property tax amount which alters local tax capacity within the fiscal equalisation system among the 16 states. The calculations on regional local tax revenue prove that the value-based models which promote greater equity are being neglected by the financially strong states. This is because they would be forced to provide higher transfer payments to the financially weaker states.     

Estimating the revenue costs of tax treaties in developing countries

(12764) Petr Janský Marek Šedivý Tax treaties between countries influence how much tax revenues governments receive from multinational enterprises. These treaties often reduce the withholding tax rates on outgoing dividend and interest payments. We provide illustrative estimates of costs for these two taxes for 14 developing countries in sub‐Saharan Africa and Asia in a first multi‐country comparison of this kind. These might be overestimates because we assume that foreign direct investments are not influenced by the tax treaties. We estimate that the highest potential tax revenue losses are within hundreds of millions US$ and around 0.1% of GDP, with Philippines incurring the highest losses both in US$ and relative to GDP. We also find that around 95% of the losses is due to dividends and that only four investor countries—Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland and Singapore—are together responsible for more than half of the losses. We discuss the limitations of these estimates and how future research could improve their quality as well as coverage.