On arbitrages arising with honest times

In the context of a general continuous financial market model, we study whether the additional information associated with an honest time τ gives rise to arbitrage profits. By relying on the theory of progressive enlargement of filtrations, we explicitly show that no kind of arbitrage profit can ever be realised strictly before τ, whereas classical arbitrage opportunities can be realised exactly at τ as well as after τ. Moreover, arbitrages of the first kind can only be obtained by starting to trade as soon as τ occurs. We carefully study the behavior of local martingale deflators and consider no-arbitrage-type conditions weaker than no free lunch with vanishing risk.     

New No-arbitrage Conditions and the Term Structure of Interest Rate Futures

Interest rate futures are basic securities and at the same time highly liquid traded objects. Despite this observation, most models of the term structure of interest rate assume forward rates as primary elements. The processes of futures prices are therefore endogenously determined in these models. In addition, in these models hedging strategies are based on forward and/or spot contracts and only to a limited extent on futures contracts. Inspired by the market model approach of forward rates by Miltersen, Sandmann, and Sondermann (J Finance 52(1); 409–430, 1997), the starting point of this paper is a model of futures prices. Using, as the input to the model, the prices of futures on interest related assets new no-arbitrage restrictions on the volatility structure are derived. Moreover, these restrictions turn out to prevent an application of a market model based on futures prices.     

No-arbitrage conditions for storable commodities and the modeling of futures term structures

One distinguishable feature of storable commodities is that they relate to two markets: cash market and storage market. This paper proves that, if no arbitrage exists in the storage-cash dual markets, the commodity convenience yield has to be non-negative. However, classical reduced-form models for futures term structures could allow serious arbitrages due to the high volatility of the convenience yield. To avoid negative convenience yield, this paper proposes a semi-affine arbitrage-free model, which prices futures analytically and fits futures term structures reasonably well. Importantly, our model prices commodity-related contingent claims (such as calendar spread options) quite differently with classical models.     

做无愧于时代的主流媒体

非常荣幸《第一财经日报》能够成为交通银行首届交银经济学家论坛的合作媒体。首届交银经济学家论坛是由交通银行创设的、良好沟通的高层次平台。聆听了一天的论坛，我们对于中国的货币政策、流动性、资产价格、国际收支与人民币汇率以及商业银行战略转型这些当今中国非常重要的金融业的热点问题都有了非常丰富的收获。20位演讲嘉宾展示了他们扎实的学术功底和对现实问题的深刻关注。     

Optimal dividend policies for a class of growth-restricted diffusion processes under transaction costs and solvency constraints

In this paper, we consider a company whose surplus follows a rather general diffusion process and whose objective is to maximize expected discounted dividend payments. With each dividend payment, there are transaction costs and taxes, and it is shown in Paulsen (Adv. Appl. Probab. 39:669?C689, 2007) that under some reasonable assumptions, optimality is achieved by using a lump sum dividend barrier strategy, i.e., there is an upper barrier $\bar{u}^{*}$ and a lower barrier $\underline{u}^{*}$ so that whenever the surplus reaches $\bar{u}^{*}$ , it is reduced to $\underline{u}^{*}$ through a dividend payment. However, these optimal barriers may be unacceptably low from a solvency point of view. It is argued that, in that case, one should still look for a barrier strategy, but with barriers that satisfy a given constraint. We propose a solvency constraint similar to that in Paulsen (Finance Stoch. 4:457?C474, 2003); whenever dividends are paid out, the probability of ruin within a fixed time T and with the same strategy in the future should not exceed a predetermined level ??. It is shown how optimality can be achieved under this constraint, and numerical examples are given.     

一类变分不等式问题与无约束优化问题的等价性

本文主要研究了一类变分不等式问题在满足一定的广义凸性的前提下,与一类无约束优化问题的等价性关系。     

央行廉政文化支撑反腐倡廉工作机制的实践思考

央行廉政文化是通过廉政理念与价值的准则,以信仰的、规范的、环境的、行为的文化表现形式,实现央行廉政文化在履行央行职责过程中的功能与作用。本文着力提出央行廉政文化建设当前和今后一段时期的目标与趋势及实现这一目标的具体构想。     

A sign of the times.

Pressure placed on employers to enhance the bottom line comes from a multitude of changes in the marketplace and has resulted in employers seeking to limit their liabilities and expenses for retiree medical care. To address retiree medical issues, employers have adapted a number of strategies that are presented in this article. These include eliminating or modifying benefits, using a defined contribution approach, capping subsidies and enrolling retirees in Medicare HMOs.     

法务会计专家在虚假陈述证券民事诉讼中的作用:国际经验及启示

本文从法务会计专家提供的法庭证据标准出发,分析了我国因虚假会计信息引发的证券民事诉讼中的争议问题,以及法务会计专家在此类案件中的作用。本文借鉴国外法务会计专家在诉讼中的具体工作方法,对我国处在转型经济条件下因虚假会计信息引发的证券民事诉讼如何进行损失计算提出了实质性的建议。     

On a class of law invariant convex risk measures

We consider the class of law invariant convex risk measures with robust representation r_h,p(X)=sup_fò₀¹ [AV@R_s(X)f(s)-f^p(s)h(s)] ds\rho_{h,p}(X)=\sup_{f}\int_{0}^{1} [AV@R_{s}(X)f(s)-f^{p}(s)h(s)]\,ds, where 1≤p<∞ and h is a positive and strictly decreasing function. The supremum is taken over the set of all Radon–Nikodym derivatives corresponding to the set of all probability measures on (0,1] which are absolutely continuous with respect to Lebesgue measure. We provide necessary and sufficient conditions for the position X such that ρ _h,p (X) is real-valued and the supremum is attained. Using variational methods, an explicit formula for the maximizer is given. We exhibit two examples of such risk measures and compare them to the average value at risk.     

金融业迎接服务时代

服务已经成为当今各行业最为热门的概念之一。作为最典型的服务业之一,金融业的服务可以划分为两个层次:第一个层次的服务对应着传统制造业的产品,即金融机构的各种主营业务,例如存款、贷款、转账汇款、有价证券买卖、财产保险、信托等,以及在此基础上进行一定深加工而形成的更为复杂的组合产品,例如综合理财计划、银行卡业务等,很多情况下我们已经开始直乎其为金融产品;第二个层次的服务则对应着传统制造业的售前、售中、售后服务,虽然和第一个层次相比这个层次的服务处于从属地位,但同样重要,其中包括围绕着金融产品展开的各种信息咨询、…     

Destructive effects of constructive ambiguity in risky times

Unclear bailout policy, underinvestment and calls for greater responsibility by bankers are some of the observations from the recent financial crisis. The paper explains underinvestment as an inefficient equilibrium. Under ambiguous bailout policy agents suffer from a lack of information about the insolvency resolution methods. The beliefs of bankers regarding whether an insolvent bank is liquidated, may differ from those of depositors even if bankers and depositors possess absolutely symmetric information about the economy. This disrupts the flow of funds through the banking channel if the investment climate is characterized by high aggregate risk. The paper suggests policy implications aimed at a reduction of the anxiety of agents and at aligning their beliefs to restore efficiency.     

零售银行自助服务创新的新时代

德利多富信息系统有限公司（以下简称“德利多富”）作为全球金融自助设备的领先供应商，集研发、市场、销售和技术支持为一体。德利多富于20世纪90年代进入中国市场，几乎与所有国内银行均有合作，提供给客户广泛的增值产品、解决方案和相关服务，是业内解决方案和客户服务的领头企业。近年来，德利多富将零售业和银行业经验迅速扩展到邮政业、彩票业等其他领域，从而使零售银行进入了自助服务创新的新时代。     

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma: in a class all its own

Non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (NHL) incidence rates have increased more than 50% over the past 15 years, making it the sixth leading cause of death from cancer in the United States and the fourth most significant malignancy in terms of economic impact. Comparable trends are noted worldwide. Improved diagnostic techniques have resulted in reclassifying some tumors that in the past would have been classified as Hodgkin's disease. In this article, the latest diagnostic, prognostic, and treatment options for NHL are reviewed and a cross-reference chart for these evolving class systems provided.     

On the equivalence of a class of affine term structure models

In specifying a finite factor model for the term structure of interest rates, one usually begins by modeling the dynamics of the underlying factors. In most cases, this is sufficient to completely determine the term structure model. However, a point that is often overlooked is that seemingly different specifications of the factor dynamics may generate indistinguishable term structure models, in the sense that they produce pathwise identical bond prices. Consequently, it is important to be able to determine, at the level of factor dynamics, the conditions under which the models they generate are indistinguishable. In the case of time-homogeneous affine term structure models (ATSMs), such conditions were first described in Dai and Singleton (J Finance 55:1943–1978, 2000). In this paper, we formalize and extend their results to a class of time-inhomogeneous ATSMs, and obtain a simple method for determining the indistinguishability of these models in terms of the underlying factor dynamics.      

后金融危机时代的外汇理财走向

全球金融危机对我国商业银行影响最直接、反应最明显的是外汇业务,尤其以商业银行的直接境外投资业务和代客外汇理财业务为甚.当前,金融危机的迷雾还未完全散去,购买银行外汇理财产品也许是零收益或负收益.目前形势下如何投资?个人外汇投资者是否需要调整投资策略?手中的外币资产该怎么处理?这些问题让广大持有外汇的中小投资者感到困惑和无所适从.其实不必过分恐慌和担忧,只要方法得当,同样可以通过外汇理财积累财富.     

Imports under a Foreign Exchange Constraint

To assess proposed macroeconomic adjustment programs, policymakersmust estimate import demand relative to the foreign exchangeavailable. Traditional models estimate import demand as a functionof relative prices (the real exchange rate) and income (grossdomestic product) but omit changes in foreign exchange. In the1980s, however, declines in foreign lending and the terms oftrade and increased debt service costs reduced foreign exchangeavailability in most developing countries and limited importcapacity. In this article two import models are presented which incorporateboth the traditional variables and indicators of import capacity—foreignexchange inflows and international reserves. The first modelassumes that import prices are exogenous, but in the secondmodel import prices are endogenous—allowing for governmentattempts to reduce import demand by increasing the domesticimport price. The models are estimated using data for twenty-onedeveloping countries for 1970–83. The results suggestthat the import model presented here does a better job of explainingimport behavior than do the traditional model (which excludeschanges in foreign exchange) and the Hemphill model (which excludesrelative import prices and income).     

Optimal dividend policies with transaction costs for a class of jump-diffusion processes

This paper addresses the problem of finding an optimal dividend policy for a class of jump-diffusion processes. The jump component is a compound Poisson process with negative jumps, and the drift and diffusion components are assumed to satisfy some regularity and growth restrictions. Each dividend payment is changed by a fixed and a proportional cost, meaning that if ?? is paid out by the company, the shareholders receive k???K, where k and K are positive. The aim is to maximize expected discounted dividends until ruin. It is proved that when the jumps belong to a certain class of light-tailed distributions, the optimal policy is a simple lump sum policy, that is, when assets are equal to or larger than an upper barrier $\bar{u}^{*}$ , they are immediately reduced to a lower barrier $\underline{u}^{*}$ through a dividend payment. The case with K=0 is also investigated briefly, and the optimal policy is shown to be a reflecting barrier policy for the same light-tailed class. Methods to numerically verify whether a simple lump sum barrier strategy is optimal for any jump distribution are provided at the end of the paper, and some numerical examples are given.     

Technology and financial services: Marketing in times of U-commerce

This article revisits and uses the so-called U-Commerce framework to challenge financial services marketing decision makers to consider reformulating marketing objectives in an age of ubiquitous technological networks. It outlines the 4 U’s of U-Commerce – ubiquity, universality, unison and uniqueness, and revisits the original framework used to conceptualize U-Commerce. Then it identifies and describes four broad marketing objectives that financial services marketers can strive for, including amplification, attenuation, contextualization and transcension. Four broad marketing strategies can be used to achieve these objectives, namely nexus marketing, sync marketing, immersion marketing and transcension marketing. Examples specific to financial services marketing are used to illustrate and discuss these strategies.