“拐点”即将来临——大整合时代的房地产企业发展之道

中国房地产会不会出现“泡沫”？这个目前地产市场最敏感的话题，在不久前举办的“房地产创新论坛”上再次成为论争的焦点。 “其兴也勃焉，其衰也忽焉”——管理学专家岳川博的“大胆假设“，来源于对美、日等国房地产数据的“小心求证”。然而在经济学家赵晓看来，所谓周期、规律，在中国“非典型性市场”中都可能水土不服——基于工业化、城市化等宏观层面的认识，房地产“泡沫”才刚刚开始。 此番唇枪舌剑，只是目前有关房地产“泡沫”问题争论的一个缩影。本刊对此暂不评论，个中三昧还可由读者自己品味。 本刊还将陆续刊发一系列地产市场相关热点话题的争论及评点。欢迎读者踊跃参评。     

Optimal control with an unbounded horizon

This paper extends existence results for finite and infinite horizon control problems to ‘unbounded horizon’ problems where both finite and infinite terminal times are feasible and there are non-trivial payoff implications (in particular, because of a non-zero terminal valuation) in making this choice. The classical approach used in the paper leads to simple and fairly intuitive conditions for existence involving direct assumptions about the objective function, state dynamics, and control constraints which are accessible to applied users of control techniques. In addition, the results are proved under fairly weak concavity assumptions and thus have potential applicability to ‘increasing returns’ problems.     

Age,investing horizon and asset allocation

In contrast to standard financial advice, most empirical evidence suggests that stockholding increases with age. One difficulty in interpreting this is that age may not effectively proxy for investing horizon or that age may be proxying for other effects, such as increases in financial sophistication. Using data from the most recent Survey of Consumer Finances this paper finds that age is not closely related to reported investing horizon and that proxies for investment horizon and financial sophistication are significant for stockholding.     

道德投资和邪恶投资对比研究

社会责任投资,又称道德投资,近年来受到了各界关注,一些机构纷纷成立道德基金进行投资。但另一方面,有人反其道而行之成立邪恶投资基金,专门投资道德投资排除在外的烟酒、军火、博彩等被认为缺乏社会责任的行业。基于常用的基金绩效对比指标-Sharpe指标和Jensen指标的实证显示,邪恶基金的表现优于传统基金和道德投资基金。因此,要持续得当投资者关注和青睐,道德投资还得从营销、法律约束等其它方面吸引投资者。     

Contests with investment

Perfectly discriminating contests (all pay auctions) are widely used as a model of situations where individuals devote resources to win some prize. In reality such contests are often preceded by investments of the contestants into their ability to fight in the contest. This paper studies a two stage game where in the first stage, players can invest to lower their bid cost in a perfectly discriminating contest, which is played in the second stage. Different assumptions on the timing of investment are studied. With simultaneous investments, equilibria in which players play a pure strategy in the investment stage are asymmetric, exhibit incomplete rent dissipation, and expected effort is reduced relative to the game without investment. There also are symmetric mixed strategy equilibria with complete rent dissipation. With sequential investment, the first mover always invests enough to deter the second mover from investing, and enjoys a first mover advantage. I also look at unobservable investments and endogenous timing of investments. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

房地产投资信托基金投资运作风险管理研究

文章首先通过对房地产投资信托基金(REITs)的基本介绍以及投资特性入手,然后分析其投资运作风险,通过比较借鉴对其投资运作风险控制给出具体解决措施,最后给我国REITs的风险管理提出建议。     

地震子波及其提取方法研究

地震子波的提取和研究是反演和正演模型的关键工作,论文重点研究了复赛谱域子波提取方法的原理和所存在的问题,并用实际资料进行试算,从而得出一些有益结论。并将提取子波运用于合成地震记录和反褶积。     

Aggregation of heterogeneous beliefs

This paper is a generalization of [Calvet, L., Grandmont, J.-M., Lemaire, I., 2002. Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs and asset pricing in complete financial markets. Working paper] to a dynamic setting. We propose a method to aggregate heterogeneous individual probability beliefs, in dynamic and complete asset markets, into a single consensus probability belief. This consensus probability belief, if commonly shared by all investors, generates the same equilibrium prices as well as the same individual marginal valuation as in the original heterogeneous probability beliefs setting. As in [Calvet, L., Grandmont, J.-M., Lemaire, I., 2002. Aggregation of heterogenous beliefs and asset pricing in complete financial markets. Working paper], the construction stands on a fictitious adjustment of the market portfolio. The adjustment process reflects the aggregation bias due to the diversity of beliefs. In this setting, the construction of a representative agent is shown to be also valid.     

对投资热的冷思考

我国经济当前正处在一个重要关口,驾驭经济--投资、消费和出口的这三驾马车,如何使力,很有讲究. 这几年,为应对亚洲金融危机和世界经济低迷的影响,我国坚持扩大内需的方针,实施积极的财政政策和稳健的货币政策,固定资产投资增速逐年回升,居民消费价格指数摆脱了连续延续14个月的负增长,投资有力拉动了经济、创造了就业,成了一马当先.     

关于非经常性损益的一些想法

非经常性损益披露的规范问题已引起有关各方的关注，某些损益项目的非经常性仍有争议，本文仅对其中几个项目进行探讨，并就其非经常性发表个人的一些认识。     

Forecast-error-based estimation of forecast uncertainty when the horizon is increased

Past forecast errors are employed frequently in the estimation of the unconditional forecast uncertainty, and several institutions have increased their forecast horizons in recent times. This work addresses the question of how forecast-error-based estimation can be performed if there are very few errors available for the new forecast horizons. It extends the results of Knüppel (2014) in order to relax the condition on the data structure that is required for the SUR estimator to be independent of unknown quantities. It turns out that the SUR estimator of the forecast uncertainty, which estimates the forecast uncertainty for all horizons jointly, tends to deliver large efficiency gains relative to the OLS estimator (i.e., the sample mean of the squared forecast errors for each individual horizon) in the case of increased forecast horizons. The SUR estimator is applied to the forecast errors of the Bank of England, the US Survey of Professional Forecasters, and the FOMC.     

福田汽车投资价值分析

本文从福田汽车的基本情况入手,简单介绍了公司的股本构成及其变动情况,并结合汽车业的整体情况分析了福田汽车各种产品的竞争力和福田公司在行业中地位。最后结合公司近期的财务数据,分析了公司的赢利能力和成长性,并对公司的发展前景进行了预测,从而可见福田汽车具有一定的投资价值。     

中介、银行支招：不动产将成为理财黑马

每个人都想多赚一些钱，改善路而苦恼。尤其是收入有限、限制，缺少本钱所致。然而，自己的生活，但实际上，多数人都在为找不到赚钱的门可支配资产不多的群体，往往认为自己赚钱少是受资金只要掌握合理的理财技巧，就能通过手中的财富创造更多的财富。每个人都有理财的天赋，只是缺乏锻炼的机会及担风险的勇气。[编者按]     

福田汽车投资价值分析

本文从福田汽车的基本情况入手,简单介绍了公司的股本构成及其变动情况,并结合汽车业的整体情况分析了福田汽车各种产品的竞争力和福田公司在行业中地位.最后结合公司近期的财务数据,分析了公司的赢利能力和成长性,并对公司的发展前景进行了预测,从而可见福田汽车具有一定的投资价值.     

Evaluating capital investment projects

The risk-adjusted discount rate method for evaluating capital investment projects applies the risk-adjusted rate to equilibrium as well as disequilibrium expected returns, leading to biased NPV calculations. This paper uses the CAPM framework, and suggests a procedure for applying the risk-adjusted rate without causing a bias. The procedure is shown to result in NPVs identical to those obtained by the certainty equivalent approach. A comparison with a previously suggested procedure is also provided.     

Pareto optimality and competitive equilibrium in infinite horizon economies

The paper presents a general model of a decentralized economy evolving over an infinite time horizon. Alternative notions of price systems, competitive equilibria, efficiency and optimality are introduced. The main results characterize conditions under which the two fundamental theorems of welfare economics are valid in such a general framework.