The economics of discrimination in the granting of credit

Conclusion As a result of credit supply imperfections and inelastic demand, creditworthy consumers may not fully benefit from accurate credit assessments as is implied by the concept of qualified demand. Yet, despite the existence of house rates and prepackaged credit offers, consumers are still able to shop around for the best terms from creditors who are all competing to make profitable credit extensions. If creditors become less accurate in their credit risk assessment due to ECOL, as the cited empirical studies predict, their opportunity to make profitable credit extensions has diminished. In a competitive credit market, credit availability would decline as creditors would be compelled either to raise rates to compensate for greater default losses and other costs associated with less accurate credit evaluation or to cut those costs by applying more stringent credit standards. Otherwise, credit institutions would be unable to earn a return on invested capital sufficient for the risk involved and the supply of consumer credit funds would diminish. With the existing credit market, creditors may not be as compelled by competition to raise house rates (or able, if such rates are at ceiling levels) or raise credit standards, as is implied by a highly competitive market. However, creditors would still have the same economic incentive to repond to increased costs of doing business in ways which would reduce credit availability to qualified demanders. Furthermore, as credit extensions become less profitable, the economic penalty accorded invidious discrimination is diminished and credit grantors, who are so inclined, are more likely to engage in such practices. Alternatively, if legislators focused upon increasing competition in the consumer credit market, increased credit availability would result. And as this would increase the economic penalty for invidious discrimination, such practices would decline.     

Usury laws and private credit in Lima,Peru. Evidence from notarized records

I examine the impact of usury laws on the Peruvian credit market between 1825 and 1852. Using a new data set of nearly 2,000 loans from archival sources, I show that the repeal of colonial anti-usury laws in early 1833 had an important effect on the allocation of credit in Lima. It increased interest rates and promoted access to credit. Furthermore, lenders made loans with greater maturities after the repeal of usury laws.     

Can price limits help when the price is falling? Evidence from transactions data on the Shanghai Stock Exchange

We use transactions data to explore the magnet effects of price limit rules on the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SHSE). When limit hits are imminent, stock prices are found to approach the price limits at faster rates, with higher trading intensity and larger price variation, supporting the magnet effect hypothesis of Subrahmanyam [Subrahmanyam, A., 1994. Circuit breakers and market volatility: A theoretical perspective. Journal of Finance, 49, 237–254.]. Moreover, when stock prices approach the floor limits, we observe lower than normal market conditions’ trading volume and trade size but a wider spread. The panic selling psychology of individual investors for fear of illiquidity and the strategic trading decisions of discretionary traders during periods prior to price limit hits at the floors are conjectured as possible explanations for the observed price behaviors. Post-limit-hit analysis reveals evidence of delayed price discovery at the ceiling limit but price reversal at the floor.     

农业信贷限制与发展模式初探

现在的农业信贷市场上存在着诸多问题,本文重点分析了贷款利率的上浮限制对农业贷款量的影响,指出在一定程度上影响了农业贷款的增长。并进一步从农户角度探讨了降低农业贷款风险的模式——农村合作经济组织,创新性地提出了农业贷款市场中存在的Backward bending,最后给出了相应的对策与建议。     

Cambium non est mutuum: exchange and interest rates in medieval Europe

A major gap in our understanding of the medieval economy concerns interest rates, especially relating to commercial credit. Although direct evidence about interest rates is scattered and anecdotal, there is much more surviving information about exchange rates. Since both contemporaries and historians have suggested that exchange and rechange transactions could be used to disguise the charging of interest in order to circumvent the usury prohibition, it should be possible to back out implied interest rates from exchange rates. The analysis presented in this article is based on a new dataset of medieval exchange rates collected from commercial correspondence in the archive of Francesco di Marco Datini of Prato, c. 1383–1411. It demonstrates that the time value of money was consistently incorporated into market exchange rates. Moreover, these implicit interest rates are broadly comparable to those received from other types of commercial loan and investment. Although on average profitable, the return on any individual exchange and rechange transaction did involve a degree of uncertainty that may have justified their non‐usurious nature. However, there were also practical reasons why medieval merchants may have used foreign exchange transactions as a means of extending credit.     

我国货币政策对房地产价格的非线性效应分析-基于MS - VAR模型的实证分析

通过建立三区制下的MSVAR模型,研究了货币量、市场利率、信贷余额和汇率对房地产价格的非线性影响。研究表明：各经济时期的区制转移特征明显,而扩张性的货币政策比收缩性货币政策更难发挥效果。经济扩张期下,利率政策能较好抑制房价;经济稳定期下货币供应量的稳定房价效果最好;而经济衰退期下前两种措施均失效,信贷渠道能发挥更大的作用。     

完善我国民间借贷监管的思考

民间借贷在我国有悠久的历史,在古代就有钱庄、票号等民间融资机构,随着改革开放的不断深入,民间借贷在我国的资本市场上快速发展,为"三农"问题的解决和中小企业的发展起到了重要的作用,但同时,民间借贷还存在着大量的问题,今年的"吴英"案将社会对民间借贷的讨论推向了高潮。民间借贷冲击了正常的金融秩序,影响了国家的宏观调控,在发生信用问题的时候容易与黑恶势力相联系,引发社会问题,与高利贷甚至是洗钱犯罪有着密切的联系等等,这些充分暴露出了民间借贷的监管中还存在着大量的不完善的地方。民间借贷市场需要规制,引导其健康发展。本文对民间借贷市场存在的问题进行分析,参考国外的民间借贷监管经验提出一些建议。     

MICROFINANCE PENETRATION AND ITS INFLUENCE ON CREDIT CHOICE IN INDONESIA: EVIDENCE FROM A HOUSEHOLD PANEL SURVEY

This paper studies empirical determinants of how heterogeneous households are matched to different types of loan products in a credit market in Indonesia. A unique situation arose when a microfinance institution launched operations in our survey area during the survey period, and we utilized its market entry for conducting mixed logit analysis of households’ credit choices. Time-varying choice sets help us identify parameters regarding preferences for various credit attributes. Our results show that the new availability of small-scale loans without collateral requirement greatly increases households’ probability of obtaining credit overall. Households in self-employed business prefer formal credit as a stable financing source but are impeded in receiving it when they locate in a rural area, probably because of large transaction costs. The poorest households, however, might not be able to exploit new credit opportunities as much as richer households, even if the scale of credit is very small.     

市场信用体制建设是经济发展第四推动力

资本、劳动力、技术长期以来被认为是经济增长的3个动力源泉。但是这个理论没有考虑其拉动经济增长的市场基础问题,无法解释为什么不同国家的经济增长会出现很大差异。开发性金融实践表明,市场信用体制建设是经济发展第四推动力。加速市场信用体制建设是发展中国家实现自觉、主动、持续、稳定、健康发展的必然要求。     

中国权证市场涨跌幅限制效应的实证研究

涨跌幅限制制度作为金融体系中稳定价格,防范价格过度波动的措施之一,被许多国家所采用。一直以来,理论界和实务界对涨跌停机制的实施效应存在争议,焦点集中在制度实施过程中可能存在的流动性干扰效应、波动性溢出效应、价格滞后发现效应和磁吸效应等。自2005年中国权证市场采用涨跌幅限制以来已近五年,其实施效果和对权证市场的发展产生的影响值得我们进行研究和探讨。本文选取截至目前我国已经和正在上市交易的55只权证日交易数据进行分析,检验涨跌幅限制对权证非理性波动的影响,以及流动性干扰效应、波动溢出效应和价格发现延迟效应是否存在,来考察我国权证市场中涨跌幅限制制度的实施效果和效应。     

Quantitative easing and Japanese bank equity values

One of the primary motivations offered by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) for its quantitative easing program—whereby it maintained a current account balance target in excess of required reserves, effectively pegging short-term interest rates at zero—was to maintain credit extension by the troubled Japanese financial sector. We conduct an event study concerning the anticipated impact of quantitative easing on the Japanese banking sector by examining the impact of the introduction and expansion of the policy on Japanese bank equity values. We find that excess returns of Japanese banks were greater when increases in the BOJ current account balance target were accompanied by “non-standard” expansionary policies, such as raising the ceiling on BOJ purchases of long-term Japanese government bonds. We also provide cross-sectional evidence that suggests that the market perceived that the quantitative easing program would disproportionately benefit financially weaker Japanese banks. J. Japanese Int. Economies 20 (4) (2006) 699–721.     

消费信贷对江苏省经济增长的影响研究——基于期限结构视角

从期限结构视角对江苏省2010—2020年短期消费信贷与中长期消费信贷的发展特点进行分析.采用江苏省2015—2020年不同期限消费信贷余额和GDP的时间序列数据,建立VAR模型.研究结果表明,短期消费信贷与中长期消费信贷均是江苏省经济增长的原因,且中长期消费信贷对经济增长的推动作用大于短期消费信贷对经济增长的推动作用.     

The myths,facts, and theories of ethnic,small-scale enterprise financing

This article combines the results of three financial studies that examine capital issues affecting minority business development. The results are presented so as to explain or refute conventional wisdom regarding capital availability, cost of capital, credit market discrimination, sources of capital and differences in firm capital composition. Generally, Asian and Hispanic businesses more approximate nonminority businesses in the sources of capital, the cost of capital, total capital investment, and access to capital. Black firms, on the other hand, face credit discrimination from all sources of capital, which limits their access to capital, increases its cost, and affects firm profitability. Consequently, black firms have a smaller capital composition at startup and during operations. The only deviation from this pattern occurs where minority and nonminority financial institutions vie for black business patronage by reducing the cost of borrowing and increasing the availability of funds.     

我国股价指数波动与宏观经济关系研究

本文以上证综合指数为研究对象,选取工业增加值、货币供应量、银行间同业拆借利率、居民消费价格指数等宏观经济变量作为解释变量,采用月度数据,对上证综合指数进行协整分析。分析证明上证综合指数与部分宏观经济变量之间存在协整关系,上证综合指数与货币供应量、同业拆借利率之间长期呈正相关关系,与居民消费价格指数负相关;并且上证综合指数与消费价格指数存在因果关系,与其他变量均不存在因果关系。这意味着我国股票市场虽然可以在一定程度上反映宏观经济的发展情况,但效率不高。     

福建省房地产价格、银行信贷与经济增长动态关系研究——基于VCE模型的实证分析

基于VEC模型,运用单位根检验、协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲函数响应函数以及方差分解等方法,对1993-2014年福建省房地产价格、银行信贷与经济增长之间的动态关系进行研究分析。结果表明：①房价、银行信贷和经济增长之间存在着动态协整关系,银行信贷与房价、经济增长之间都存在单向因果关系,房价与经济增长之间存在双向因果关系。②经济增长往往需要一段较长的时间才能推动房价的上涨,房价对银行信贷存在长期的抑制作用,房价对经济增长的影响小于银行信贷对经济增长的影响。     

Monetary policy and financial stability: what role for the interest rate?

We propose an ex-post analysis of the behavior of a central bank confronted with financial turmoil. For this purpose, we rely on a DSGE model that combines credit market frictions with a boom and bust scenario on the price of capital. Within this framework, we seek to understand the extent to which central banks could have intervened to limit the effects of the financial bubble and its bursting. We compare the results obtained in terms of economic stabilization under a simple Taylor rule with those of an augmented rule that takes into account a financial indicator. We show that a central bank using as sole instrument the interest rate cannot simultaneously improve inflation and credit cycles.     

Completing China's Interest Rate Liberalization

China's recent removal of the last ceiling restriction on deposit rates in October 2015 is a milestone in interest rate liberalization, but not the end of it. International experience suggests that, without structural and quantitative reforms, simply freeing interest rates can result in major financial stress. Before China's central bank can completely relinquish implicit or explicit guidance for commercial banks' interest rate determination, it needs to accomplish two tasks: improvement of commercial banks' pricing capability as well as the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Both tasks require significant reform measures to be initiated, such as enforcing market discipline, forming a new monetary policy framework, developing money and capital markets, abandoning quantitative restrictions on credit and reforming the financial regulatory system.     

农村信用社信贷结构改革的经济学分析

文章通过分析我国农村信用社信贷结构存在的管理体系问题、信贷流程问题和保障机制问题,揭示了制约农村信用社信贷结构改革的存量因素、经济环境、风险因素、人员素质和管理水平,提出了内涵式调整、管理型调整、稳健经营调整以及扩张性调整等农村信用社信贷结构改革的策略,最后阐述了大力拓展低风险市场、审慎完善信贷结构清理、有效优化信贷服务措施、积极稳妥发展潜在客户等农村信用社信贷结构改革的途径。     

融资成本能评价新型货币政策工具的有效性吗

提升货币政策效果是近年来我国宏观经济调控改革中的重要任务,而如何正确评价货币政策有效性则是这一任务的前提条件。基于此,结合我国经济新变化,文章在经典的CC-LM模型中纳入了新型货币政策工具,从理论上分析了新型货币政策工具对信贷利率与实际产出的传导机制,并应用具有时变参数的TVP-SV-VAR模型进一步检验了理论分析的结论。理论研究与实证检验一致得出：第一,从对实际产出的影响来看,中期借贷便利为代表的新型货币投放方式是有效的;第二,中期借贷便利仅能降低短期信贷利率,而长期将提升信贷利率;第三,中期借贷便利与LPR报价市场的市场化程度提升可强化货币政策有效性。此外,实证研究还表明,依靠中期借贷便利方式投放基础货币会造成吉布逊谜团的现象,因此能否降低融资成本并不能作为评价货币政策有效性的指标。籍此,文章对如何优化新型货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的政策建议。     

Was the expansion of housing credit in Japan good or bad?

This paper shows, using data from the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, that housing credit has become increasingly available over time in Japan, especially since 2000, and that this has made it easier for Japanese households to purchase housing and enabled them to do so at an earlier age. However, it also shows that the greater availability of housing credit has increased households’ housing loan repayment burden, which has resulted in their cutting back on their other consumption expenditures and created the potential for retirement insecurity. Another concern is that the increasing availability of housing credit has been accompanied by a pronounced shift from fixed-rate to variable-rate housing loans. This is cause for concern given the low level of financial literacy that prevails among the Japanese population and the likelihood that interest rates on variable-rate housing loans will be raised sooner or later as monetary policy is tightened.