The Relation Between Treasury Yields and Corporate Bond Yield Spreads

Because the option to call a corporate bond should rise in value when bond yields fall, the relation between noncallable Treasury yields and spreads of corporate bond yields over Treasury yields should depend on the callability of the corporate bond. I confirm this hypothesis for investment-grade corporate bonds. Although yield spreads on both callable and noncallable corporate bonds fall when Treasury yields rise, this relation is much stronger for callable bonds. This result has important implications for interpreting the behavior of yields on commonly used corporate bond indexes, which are composed primarily of callable bonds.     

Corporate Yield Spreads and Bond Liquidity

We find that liquidity is priced in corporate yield spreads. Using a battery of liquidity measures covering over 4,000 corporate bonds and spanning both investment grade and speculative categories, we find that more illiquid bonds earn higher yield spreads, and an improvement in liquidity causes a significant reduction in yield spreads. These results hold after controlling for common bond‐specific, firm‐specific, and macroeconomic variables, and are robust to issuers' fixed effect and potential endogeneity bias. Our findings justify the concern in the default risk literature that neither the level nor the dynamic of yield spreads can be fully explained by default risk determinants.     

国债收益率对信贷市场均衡的影响

国债市场规模的扩大可以满足机构投资者的收益性和流动性偏好,机构投资者投资组合的调整使得国债具有影响信贷市场均衡的功效:国债收益率变化影响信贷市场利率和信贷市场均衡规模。实证研究表明,在协整关系上国债收益率和信贷资金增长率具有负相关关系,表明国债收益率上升对信贷资金增长率具有降低作用,不过效果不明显,不足以成为影响信贷市场资金规模的原因。国债收益率和信贷资金增长率不互为因果关系,这与中国国债规模偏小、持有者结构不合理和交易所国债市场逐渐边缘化的趋向有关。     

Emerging Bond Market Volatility and Country Spreads

Using JPMorgan's emerging market bond index, this paper analyzes how increases in country credit spreads can persist in emerging bond markets. The results of T-GARCH regressions show that, during financial crisis periods, emerging countries' credit spreads may increase persistently as a result of interaction between changes in spreads and volatilities, making emerging bond markets more turbulent. The results suggest that emerging countries should endeavor to develop a stabilization mechanism by enhancing information efficiency in bond markets. In particular, because Asian countries have experienced persistent, overreactive volatility, this paper implies that Asian countries should work together more closely during financial crisis periods.     

中国债券市场私募利差研究

在信用债绝对收益率低、风险偏好回落的市场环境下,投资者可以在私募债市场上挖掘机会.相较于公募债券,私募债券因为流动性差和信用风险高,可以给投资者提供一个风险溢价.通过计算主体点差对主体的私募利差进行分析发现,受债券信用评级、品种和发债主体所有制属性影响,私募利差分布呈现出正偏态和聚集性;私募利差的时间序列非连续,可能与中债估值调整有关.由于私募利差序列波动较小,投资者可以利用私募利差对私募债进行定价,作为制定私募债交易策略的基准.     

Reaching for Yield in the Bond Market

This paper studies reaching for yield—investors’ propensity to buy riskier assets to achieve higher yields—in the corporate bond market. We show that insurance companies reach for yield in choosing their investments. Consistent with lower rated bonds bearing higher capital requirements, insurance firms prefer to hold higher rated bonds. However, conditional on credit ratings, insurance portfolios are systematically biased toward higher yield, higher CDS bonds. This behavior is related to the business cycle being most pronounced during economic expansions. It is also characteristic of firms with poor corporate governance and for which the regulatory capital requirement is more binding.     

“一带一路”倡议与公司债信用利差

本文以中国“一带一路”倡议的出台作为准自然实验,采用双重差分法考察国家倡议对微观企业债券信用利差的影响。研究发现:(1)相对于非支持企业,“一带一路”倡议实施能够显著降低支持企业的公司债二级市场信用利差,该结论在一系列稳健性检验之后仍然成立。(2)通过考察“一带一路”倡议的债券市场反应,我们发现相比于非支持企业,支持企业在倡议提出后有显著更高的债券累计超额回报率。(3)进一步检验后发现,“一带一路”倡议对公司债二级市场信用利差的降低作用主要通过资源效应和信息效应来实现。并且,政策影响范围主要集中在重点对接行业以及重点对接省份的企业。(4)“一带一路”倡议还对公司债一级市场的发行表现产生影响。具体表现为:在倡议实施之后,受倡议支持企业发行的公司债,其一级市场发行利差下降幅度更大,且包含的担保条款以及限制性契约条款显著更少。本研究探讨了“一带一路”倡议对公司债券市场的政策效应,对未来推进“一带一路”建设,提高资金融通效率具有参考意义。     

Historic Changes in the High Yield Bond Market

In a history that now stretches about four decades, the high yield (HY) market has experienced growth in issuance and out‐standings that is remarkable both for its level (about 13% per annum, with HY bonds now accounting for about 25% of the total corporate bond market) and its cyclicality and sensitivity to the broad economy. The HY market has also experienced a notable shift away from B‐rated bonds and toward both lower‐risk Ba‐rated bonds and, to a lesser extent, more risky Caa‐rated bonds. Consistent with this development, studies of the performance of HY bonds show Ba‐rated bonds experiencing not only lower risk, but also higher returns than Caa‐rated bonds, which have produced surprisingly low average returns along with exceptionally high volatility. At the same time, studies of the correlation of HY bond returns with returns on other major asset classes report that all classes of HY bonds (but particularly the riskier B‐ and Caa‐rated bonds) have consistently stronger relationships with common stocks (especially small‐cap stocks) than with Treasuries and investment‐grade bonds. Analysis of the volatility of HY bond returns over time shows that during periods of stability in the economy and financial markets, the volatility of HY bond returns has been very similar to that of investment‐grade bonds. But during periods of political or economic uncertainty, the volatility of HY bonds has become two or three times that of investment‐grade bonds, approaching the volatility of common stocks. The main driver of the significant increase in the risk of the aggregate HY bond market during periods of uncertainty has been Caa‐rated bonds, whose risk pattern has been remarkably similar to that of small‐cap common stocks. Analysis of the credit risk spread (or CRS) series for both the composite HY bond market and each of its rating categories shows markedly non‐normal distributions with significant positive “skewness”—that is, periods of exceptionally high spreads (that are not counterbalanced by periods of exceptionally low spreads). The authors also report a consistently strong relationship of the CRS series with default rates and the general state of the economy, with major peaks occurring during or shortly after economic recessions. Near the end of 2008, however, there was a clear break in this relationship when the CRS reached an historic peak of 2,000 basis points, or more than five standard deviations above its long‐term mean, while the default rate (at 4%) was below its long‐term average. The authors offer two explanations for this break in CRS‐default rate relationship: the jump in the CRS caused by the extreme flight to quality and drop in liquidity for all risky securities during the second half of 2008; and the use of covenant‐lite securities and other sources of financial flexibility that appear to have enabled many HY issuers to defer defaults (if not avoid them entirely).     

An Empirical Comparison of Credit Spreads between the Bond Market and the Credit Default Swap Market

This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The cointegration test confirms that the theoretical parity relationship between the two credit spreads holds as a long-run equilibrium condition. Nevertheless, substantial deviation from the parity can arise in the short run. The panel data study and the VECM analysis both suggest that the deviation is largely due to the higher responsiveness of CDS premia to changes in credit conditions. Moreover, it exhibits a certain degree of persistence in that only 10% of price discrepancies can be removed within a business day.     

发展国债期货市场 健全国债收益率曲线

自1981年恢复发行国债以来,我国的国债市场取得了健康快速的发展,国债的存量规模、年度新增量以及付息规模均有大幅增长。随着建设反映市场价格水平的国债收益率曲线的重要性逐渐提高,为了更好地促进金融市场深入发展、提高宏观调控效率、管理市场预期,我国需要构建一条完善的国债收益率曲线。本文首先对我国国债市场的发展现状和国债收益率曲线建设情况进行了分析,探讨了国债期货市场发挥的重要功能,为更好地发展国债期货市场和健全国债收益率曲线提出了若干政策建议。     

做市商制度、双边价差与市场稳定性——基于银行间债券市场做市行为的研究

本文在梳理我国银行间债券市场做市商制度发展历程及其与市场流动性关系的基础上,以一段包含牛、熊市的完整市场周期为样本,考察了双边价差的影响因素,并对不同行情下做市商报价行为及稳定市场的效果作了比较研究。结果发现,做市商提供的市场流动性整体不足,而做市商的表现明显好于尝试做市商;从做市商稳定市场的效果看,只有五大行发挥了一定作用。原因在于,市场没有分层、做市商缺乏激励使得做市业务无法盈利,仅做市商考核排名(提高声誉)能对国有大行带来一定激励,因此越是以盈利为考核目标的机构做市的意愿越低。     

我国高收益债市场发展分析

文章回顾了我国高收益债(二级收益率超过9%)市场发展历程与阶段特征,指出规范高收益债交易和处置,提升高收益债券的流动性,是当前亟待解决的问题。近年来,相关基础设施加快出台制度,不断完善高收益债交易方式,但总体看,市场发展水平较发达国家仍有较大差距,文章借鉴国际经验提出我国高收益债券市场相关建议。     

A Required Yield Theory of Stock Market Valuation and Treasury Yield Determination

Stock market valuation and Treasury yield determination are consistent with the Fisher effect (1896) as generalized by Darby (1975) and Feldstein (1976) . The U.S. stock market (S&P 500) is priced to yield ex-ante a real after-tax return directly related to real long-term GDP/capita growth (the required yield ). Elements of our theory show that: (1) real after-tax Treasury and S&P 500 forward earnings yields are stationary processes around positive means; (2) the stock market is indeed priced as the present value of expected dividends with the proviso that investors are expecting fast mean reversion of the S&P 500 nominal growth opportunities to zero. Moreover, (3) the equity premium is mostly due to business cycle risk and is a direct function of below trend expected productivity, where productivity is measured by the growth in book value of S&P 500 equity per-share. Inflation and fear-based risk premia only have a secondary impact on the premium. The premium is always positive or zero with respect to long-term Treasuries. It may be negative for short-term Treasuries when short-term productivity outpaces medium and long run trends. Consequently: (4) Treasury yields are mostly determined in reference to the required yield and the business cycle risk premium; (5) the yield spread is largely explained by the differential of long-term book value per share growth vs. near term growth, with possible yield curve inversions. Finally, (6) the Fed model is partially validated since both the S&P 500 forward earnings yield and the ten-year Treasury yield are determined by a common factor: the required yield.     

Valuation and Optimal Exercise of the Wild Card Option in the Treasury Bond Futures Market

The Chicago Board of Trade Treasury Bond Futures Contract allows the short position several delivery options as to when and with which bond the contract will be settled. The timing option allows the short position to choose any business day in the delivery month to make delivery. In addition, the contract settlement price is locked in at 2:00 p .m . when the futures market closes, despite the facts that the short position need not declare an intent to settle the contract until 8:00 p .m . and that trading in Treasury bonds can occur all day in dealer markets. If bond prices change significantly between 2:00 and 8:00 p .m ., the short has the option of settling the contract at a favorable 2:00 p .m . price. This phenomenon, which recurs on every trading day of the delivery month, creates a sequence of 6-hour put options for the short position which has been dubbed the “wild card option.” This paper presents a valuation model for the wild card option and computes estimates of the value of that option, as well as rules for its optimal exercise.     

Corporate Yield Spreads: Default Risk or Liquidity? New Evidence from the Credit Default Swap Market

We use the information in credit default swaps to obtain direct measures of the size of the default and nondefault components in corporate spreads. We find that the majority of the corporate spread is due to default risk. This result holds for all rating categories and is robust to the definition of the riskless curve. We also find that the nondefault component is time varying and strongly related to measures of bond‐specific illiquidity as well as to macroeconomic measures of bond market liquidity.     

中国债市三十年回顾

中国债券市场开始于1981年国债的恢复发行,历经近三十年的改革与发展至今,中国债券市场体系已经相对完整.债券品种日益丰富齐全,市场规模不断扩大,同时债券市场的问题也逐渐显现.回顾中国债券市场的改革与发展历程,有助于我们更好地了解中国债券市场的症结所在,促进中国债券市场更稳健地发展.     

Default Risk in Corporate Yield Spreads

An important research question examined in the credit risk literature focuses on the proportion of corporate yield spreads attributed to default risk. This topic is reexamined in light of the different issues associated with the computation of default probabilities obtained from historical default data. We find that the estimated default risk proportion in corporate yield spreads is sensitive to the ex ante estimated term structure of default probabilities used as inputs. This proportion can become a large fraction of the spread when sensitivity analyses are made with respect to the period over which the probabilities are estimated and the recovery rates.     

短期融资券市场效率研究——基于价差分解的视角

在完全有效市场条件下,信用风险是反映信用类债券特征的最基本信息,也是决定价差的关键因素。本文通过对中国信用类债券中短期融资券的价差分解发现,虽然信用风险显著影响短期融资券定价,但市场风险才是影响其价差的最主要因素。此外,市场流动性不足降低了市场运行效率,导致流动性溢价总体为负。上述研究结果表明我国短期融资券市场化的定价机制虽已初步形成,但市场效率总体仍然偏低。